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Prediction: Habs vs. Canes for 8th place

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Old
03-20-2007, 11:45 PM
  #1
Lucius
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Prediction: Habs vs. Canes for 8th place

So, looking over the schedule, I did one of the terrible addictive and likely meaningless "if the team that should win does win" calculations for the rest of the season.

If everything goes the way it "should", then Montreal looks like they have a good shot at the playoffs. When I look at the remaining games though, there are some key observations:

-Rangers: Almost certain to make the playoffs, they have a nice schedule.
-Tampa: Again, I don't see how they can miss with their schedule.
-NY Isles: Looking like they're in trouble, they have a very bad schedule.
-Toronto: If everything goes as it "should", they will only win one more game. That's not going to happen, but they easily have the worst schedule.

So that leaves Montreal and Carolina. Mark my words and watch the Canes games, it's going to come down to those two for 8th place. Barring absurdity, I cannot see it coming out any other way.

Now, this is all likely moot since what "should" happen rarely does (look at tonight, TBay "should have won", but it's hard to predict the extra points the Isles got and Toronto "should" have lost to NJD).

Nonetheless, I really do believe its between Montreal and Carolina.

So l bring you their schedules in comparison.
-Canes have 9 games, Montreal 8.
-Both have four road games.
-Both have three games against teams in the pack of six.
-Canes have 4 games vs definite non-playoff teams. Montreal 3.
-Canes have 2 "elite" team games, Montreal 2 as well.
-Canes 8 OT losses on season, Mtl 6 (first tie breaker for most wins)

Here are the scehdules

CAROLINA:
Washington
San Jose
@ Toronto
@ Philly
Tampa Bay
@ Florida
@ Tampa Bay
Atlanta
Florida

MONTREAL:
@ Boston
Washington
NY Rangers
@ Ottawa
Buffalo
Boston
@ NY Rangers
@ Toronto

So, both at 80 points tonight. Since Carolina has an extra non-playoff team game, let's just give their game in hand to them. That means Montreal needs to be 2 points better than Carolina over the last 8.

My prediction is Carolina wins 5 of 8 (split with TBay, lose to Atlanta and San Jose).

Thus, Montreal must win 6 of 8. And I'd pencil those loses against Ottawa and Buffalo.

What's that mean? A loss in any of the games against playoff rivals or non-playoff teams might spell the end of le CH.

So there we have it... my "should be sleeping" breakdown =) Set the DVRs for Canes games folks.

P.S. The upside of my doom and gloom here is that if Carolina sweeps Tampa, and Tampa plays to prediction... Then we have a similar win necessity to beat them. Our big hope is that whoever wins the first TBay/Carolina game wins the second and neither game goes to OT!

P.S.S. The Rangers look pretty safe, but if they do collapse, it's other rival teams that get back in the hunt, so it doesn't actually help us. Toronto and the Isles would benefit.

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Old
03-20-2007, 11:55 PM
  #2
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i dont see how that Rags are safe being 1 pt ahead of us and having to play us 2 more times .

there all big games and as we seen last year the Caps dealing a huge blow to Atlanta knocking them off..

expect something like that again this year for someone .

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Old
03-20-2007, 11:57 PM
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DieHardHabs
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after tomorrow... rangers go on a 4 or 5 game road trip i think... plus if we can beat them twice.. .thats huge..

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Old
03-21-2007, 12:10 AM
  #4
LesHabsRock
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I also believe the Habs need to go 6-2 over their remaining 8 games. It was once 8-2, so now with 2 wins in a row they have increased their chances. If they beat Boston and Washington the next two games they'll only need a 4-2 record the rest of the way. Here is the remaining schedule you outlined for the Habs and note that I have highlighted games I think they will win rather than "should":

MONTREAL:
@ Boston W
Washington W
NY Rangers W
@ Ottawa L
Buffalo W
Boston W
@ NY Rangers L
@ Toronto W

It should come down to the Leafs game IMO with that last win being the maker or breaker for our Habs. I believe they'll lose the Rangers game on the road and follow that up with a win in Toronto. I also believe they'll win the next 3 games for a 5 game winstreak and everything will seem rosey, but it won't quite yet. They'll be high on a 5 game winstreak and get burned by Ottawa. They come right back and beat Buffalo and Boston at the Bell Centre the very next games. It makes sense that their only two losses would be on the road. Gotta win them home games.


Last edited by LesHabsRock: 03-21-2007 at 12:16 AM.
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Old
03-21-2007, 12:11 AM
  #5
Lucius
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Obviously, this is all speculation, but let me go through why I think the Rangers are untouchable.

First, let's look at what they have left:
-1 point up with 1 game in hand
-9 games left, but granted 6 are on the road.
-3 vs. "non-playoff teams"
-5 vs. "bubble" teams

RANGERS:
Philly
@ Boston
@ NY Isles
@ Habs
@ Philly
Toronto
@ NY Isles
Habs
@ Pittsburgh

Let's assume wins vs: Philly (x2), Boston. That gives them 87 pts with 6 games left. Lets assume Pittsburgh beats them. That's five games left.

They are the hardest team to judge because of all their games against bubble teams, but keep in mind my theory is giving the Leafs and Isles up for dead. That meant I am guessing the Rangers beat them both (93 points, 2 games left).

If Montreal goes 6 of 8, as we need them to, that puts them one point behind the Rangers. In this scenario, the Habs need to go 7 for 8. That's a bit much to ask.

However, in all honesty, I don't think Montreal will sweep. A split is more realistic. On the other hand, a clean sweep by the Rangers of the Isles/Leafs is unlikely for them too. Thus, the Rangers still have 93 points, but now Montreal only has 90... Things are grim.

If Montreal can sweep the Rangers and the Isles/Leafs can grab one win off them... Then yes, Rangers 91 - Habs 92 and we're good. But that's more ifs than I expect.


Last edited by Lucius: 03-21-2007 at 12:27 AM. Reason: 6 OF 8, sorry!
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Old
03-21-2007, 12:15 AM
  #6
LesHabsRock
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lucius View Post
Obviously, this is all speculation, but I'll grand their was a hole - upon further analysis - in my "Rangers are safe" proclamation.

First, let's look at what they have left:
-1 point up with 1 game in hand
-9 games left, but granted 6 are on the road.
-3 vs. "non-playoff teams"
-5 vs. "bubble" teams

RANGERS:
Philly
@ Boston
@ NY Isles
@ Habs
@ Philly
Toronto
@ NY Isles
Habs
@ Pittsburgh

Let's assume wins vs: Philly (x2), Boston. That gives them 85 pts with 6 games left. Lets assume Pittsburgh beats them. That's five games left.

They are the hardest team to judge because of all their games against bubble teams, but keep in mind my theory is giving the Leafs and Isles up for dead. That meant I am guessing the Ragners beat them both (91 points, 2 games left).

If Montreal goes 6-8, as we need them to, that puts them 1 point up on the Rangers, since they would have to win those two games. You are correct.

So there we go... I guess it's a three way race. However, in all honesty, I don't think Montreal will sweep. A split is more realistic. Sadly, if that happens, we likely miss the playoffs.
6-8 ?

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Old
03-21-2007, 12:26 AM
  #7
Lucius
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Just for fun, here is why I think the Leafs and Isles are dead:


First the leafs:

LEAF SCHEDULE:
@ Buffalo
Buffalo
Carolina
@ Atlanta
Pittsburgh
@ NY Rangers
Philly
@ NY Isles
Habs

I am assuming losses to Buffalo, Buffalo, Atlanta, Pittsburgh and Montreal. That leaves them only four more games, and a potential for 88 points. Only gimme is Philly. Thus they need to run the "bubble" table (82 + 6pts = 88) and upset two of the five I listed above to get near 92. That's a lot of upsets they need. Obviously, if they beat Montreal, this whole question is moot for us anyway. I also don't see them sweeping the Rangers, Carolina and the Isles.

NY ISLES SCHEDULE:
Pittsburgh
@ Philly
NY Rangers
New Jersey
@ Buffalo
Ottawa
NY Rangers
Toronto
@ Philly
@ New Jersey

Again, the lack of gimmies does them in. They only have two (Philly). So that gives them 83 points. Throw in likely losses to Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Ottawa, and New Jersey x2.. They would have to beat the Rangers twice and then Toronto just to hit 89 points, which isn't enough.

PS. The Lightning have 4 points in hand and three gimmes (90 points right there). Thus just need to win two of their playoff team or bubble team games (out of 5) to easily put Montreal in their dust. Between NJ, Ottawa, Carolina x2 and Atlanta, I am sure they get the 3-4 points they need.


Quote:
Originally Posted by LesHabsRock View Post
6-8 ?
Typo, meant to be "6 of 8".


Last edited by Lucius: 03-21-2007 at 12:41 AM.
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Old
03-21-2007, 12:34 AM
  #8
LesHabsRock
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Quote:
Typo, meant to be "6 of 8".
I figured that afterwards..duhh lol

And perhaps the Habs just may have an outside chance at getting in with a 5-3 record the rest of the way with 90 points if other teams stumble. 5-3 would be more realistic IMO as beating Boston in all 3 games is a tall order. IF they win 2 of 3 vs the B's then a 5-3 record is justified.

Edit: If I'm Carbonneau I'm telling my team to sprint to 6 more wins as quickly as possible. Let's not wait for the last game.


Last edited by LesHabsRock: 03-21-2007 at 12:41 AM.
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Old
03-21-2007, 06:22 AM
  #9
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I think the general concesus is 6 wins to get to the 92 points which is what many where saying would be needed to get into the playoffs.

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Old
03-21-2007, 07:38 AM
  #10
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While the schedule for the Habs is advantageous and for the Leafs, it is not, they still have to play the games. Last night, the Leafs won a game I think most people suspected they wouldn't. Heck, did anyone expect the Caps to paste the TB 7-1? That is why they play the games.

I like the Habs schedule...they control their destiny by who they play. Rangers 2x, Bruins 2x, Leafs, Sens, Caps, Sabres...all good. 92 pts (or 6 of 8) should do it but first things first, they need to go into Boston and get the 2 pts.

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