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Old
03-21-2007, 05:50 AM
  #26
The Hamburglar
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I love the chemistry between Vermette and Kelly. However, I dislike their finishing abilities. Sure their stats are good, but it is often seen in games that their finish is average at best. Other than that, they are great IMO.

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03-21-2007, 07:50 AM
  #27
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Always liked Kelly. Never complained about the guy

He's effective and gives 110% no matter were he is.

He certainly looks good were he is now though. Good spot for him. Good supporting cast too. Or well, you know what I mean

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03-21-2007, 08:23 AM
  #28
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No matter where they put him, he keeps playing his game, doing his thing.

He's actually shown me this year that he DOES have some hands - maybe they should put him in the shootout.

Did anyone see him readjust himself obviously on the bench? Kelly is a stallion, no question about it. Definitely not a gelding.

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Old
03-21-2007, 09:20 AM
  #29
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Originally Posted by NyQuil View Post
Something occurred to me as I was watching.

I always figured that Vermette is what made Kelly good.

Then I realized, Vermette has only been at his peak when playing with Kelly.

Whereas Kelly can seemingly play with anyone.

So does Vermette need Kelly more than Kelly needs Vermette?

(Yes, I've had plenty of cold medication)
Cold medication... is that what you're calling it these days Mr. NyQuil? Well, it was an herbal remedy of sorts...

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03-21-2007, 09:32 AM
  #30
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Originally Posted by Lexicon Devil View Post
I am surprised to see that he is statistically our worst penalty-killer (in terms of +/- normalized to icetime).

Heatley: +1.87
McAmmond: -1.50
Fisher: -2.52
Alfredsson: -2.58
Vermette: -3.70
Kelly: -5.87

Schubert: -0.77
Redden: -1.95
Phillips: -3.39
Meszaros: -3.75
Corvo: -4.29
Volchenkov: -4.30

http://www.behindthenet.ca/sh_stats.html


... not intentionally trying to be negative. I really like Kelly - just surprised to notice this.

And offtopic, but Neil is by far the worst player statistically on the PP.
I wouldn't give much value to those statistics. Kelly/Vermette have by far the most penalty killing minutes for our forwards and yet they are considered the worst? If Heatley is our best statistical PKer (according to that method) why does he have the least amount of PK time?

And Volchenkov is the worst statistical PKer? Phillips has over 300 minutes on the PK and on that list of 371 players there are only two others like him (Witt and Lidstrom), yet according to the +/- ranking we should be using Schubert. Obviously that method is deeply flawed when it comes to saying who is/isn't good on the PK.

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03-21-2007, 09:46 AM
  #31
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Did anyone see him readjust himself obviously on the bench? Kelly is a stallion, no question about it. Definitely not a gelding.
..Who does he think he is, Petr Sykora? (You've all seen what I'm talking about.)

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03-21-2007, 09:48 AM
  #32
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Cold medication... is that what you're calling it these days Mr. NyQuil? Well, it was an herbal remedy of sorts...
I'm an upstanding citizen around here, woman!

Everything green is NyQuil to me, babe.

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Old
03-21-2007, 10:55 AM
  #33
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I wouldn't give much value to those statistics. Kelly/Vermette have by far the most penalty killing minutes for our forwards and yet they are considered the worst? If Heatley is our best statistical PKer (according to that method) why does he have the least amount of PK time?

And Volchenkov is the worst statistical PKer? Phillips has over 300 minutes on the PK and on that list of 371 players there are only two others like him (Witt and Lidstrom), yet according to the +/- ranking we should be using Schubert. Obviously that method is deeply flawed when it comes to saying who is/isn't good on the PK.
It would be wrong to infer that a good +/- on the PK by itself means that a player should be playing the PK. You have to take into account who's on the opposing PP:

Volchenkov 279 minutes, -4.30 G/60, opponent PP = +4.77
Phillips 319 minutes, -3.39 G/60, opponent PP = +4.76
Vermette 195 minutes, -3.39 G/60, opponent PP = +4.76
Kelly 215 minutes, -3.70 G/60, opponent PP = +4.76
...
Schubert 78 minutes, -0.77 G/60, opponent PP = +4.39
Heatley 64 minutes, +1.87 G/60, opponent PP = +4.27

There isn't much spread in opponent PP (0.21 standard deviation league-wide), so you can't compare Ottawa's top unit to Schubert and Heatley, who only get PK time in very specific circumstances - against inferior teams or against a team's 2nd or even 3rd PP unit. In fact, Heatley's opponent PP is the second-lowest in the league for anyone with 60 minutes of PK time.

So the statistics don't suggest that Heatley and Schubert should be on the ice. In fact, we don't know what would happen if Heatley played against the other team's first PP line - but we do know that he's not doing it right now, and that we shouldn't be misled by his pristine PK stats.

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Old
03-21-2007, 11:02 AM
  #34
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..Who does he think he is, Petr Sykora? (You've all seen what I'm talking about.)
Do I ever.

I couldn't find it, but please accept this one instead.

Oh sorry, Kelly...yes, Kelly is appreciated. I especially like how him and Gratts are apparently the biggest trash talkers in the room.

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Old
03-21-2007, 12:07 PM
  #35
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When he's being used correctly (like he is right now, on the 3rd line), he's terrific. He just looks incredibly out of place on the top two lines.

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03-21-2007, 12:11 PM
  #36
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I honestly thought Kelly was a joke and one of those career AHLers who got an NHL callup only because we didn't have the cap space to fill up a couple spots. I was wrong though...he's essentially a combination of Fisher/Alfredsson without quite the offensive touch of either. That seems to be blooming though, I was surprised to see he may very well hit 20 goals this year.

Yet another hard-worker on this team. Seems like we're piling them up these days. Now if only we could get it to rub off on a superstar of ours.

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Old
03-21-2007, 01:11 PM
  #37
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Originally Posted by Lexicon Devil View Post
... not intentionally trying to be negative. I really like Kelly - just surprised to notice this.

And offtopic, but Neil is by far the worst player statistically on the PP.
It is noteworthy, but, the fact that Volchenkov doesn't fare well, tells you that there's more to this stat.

I'm wondering if Kelly is going to get some Selke consideration. If he can hit the 20 goal plateau (which seems to be the requirement to be considered good defensively for some reason), he'll have a heck of a resume.

-He'd be the leading forward for ice time in Ottawa short handed, which is currently the 6th best PK in the league. If you adjust for shorthanded goals (taking net PP goals allowed), we're the best in the league.

-He has spent considerable time being the defensive presence on the top line. His hands of stone are well known, so, his presence there is noteworthy. The fact that he helped centre Heatley and Alfredsson this team went on a tear during the injury crisis would be very noteworthy.

-He's tied for 5th for short handed points, with 2 goals and 3 assists.

-He's got the second best +/- on the team for forwards, and 5th best overall in the league among forwards.

It's a fairly impressive list of accomplishments. However, I'm hoping that he doesn't get any consideration. He gets much more expensive if he even gets nominated. At least wait until we sign him for at least a couple of seasons.

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Old
03-21-2007, 02:03 PM
  #38
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I remember earlier in the year when there were one of the ubiquitous lines threads, and perhaps 30 people proposed line combinations, and 29 of them had Kelly on the 4th line with Slash and/or Big Ern. And somewhat understandable, Kelly has good chemistry with Gratts.

But Spezza and Heatley were struggling a bit early in the year, as was the team, and Murray put Kelly with Spez and Heatley. And they started on a roll, both started moving into the top 10 scorers, the line was clicking. Kelly had a real chemistry with them being the defensive conscience on that line even while getting good goals and assists, and making things happen. We started winning a few more games.

Then when all our centers got injured, Murray put together a line of Heatley-Kelly -Alfie. The line caught fire. Heatley got into the top 5 point getters and goal scorers finally. The line was rated one of the top lines in the league at the time. Offensively strong and matching up defensively against all top lines. And Kelly had a great chemistry with that line, they all clicked together and were all 3 top ten in the league +/-.

Kelly also had some good games centering alfie. And centering Vermette and Comrie. Whichever line Kelly is on, always seems to have good chemistry, the other players on his line start getting praise.

Kelly lines up against Jagr, Sundin, Kovalchuk, Crosby, and they never have good games against us.

Vermette and Kelly have picked up from last year, having developed a great chemistry as a pair, hard as that must be to believe with Murray as coach, and many now can join them as a 3rd on that pair, as is our system of pairs, and find a role. Neil looks renewed there on what seem a perfect 3rd line, competitive with Schaef Fish Neil.

Comrie hasn’t looked good on the top line no matter how often some repeat it to themselves hoping to convince its true. Saprykin showed some good things for himself as a player, but didn’t make the line look good when he was there.

Neil has played on the top line a few times and given them some room in regular season games and stood in front of the net, he can rotate in with them in situations. McAmmond has shown he can play some time and some situations on the top line. As has Eaves shown he can rotate in as a 3rd for the top pairing in certain situations or matchups. And of course Kelly has proven that he never looks out of place on the top line, much as it must pain many to admit their perceptions were wrong there. And of course Alfie can rotate onto that line and look fantastic. And all have chemistry there! We don’t have a Guerin or Havlat to play there, we must make do.

Murray has developed a lot of chemistry on that top line, great chemistry for the 2nd line with schaef fish alfie. Fantastic chemistry with the 3rd pairing of Kelly Vermette, and the 4th paring of Comrie McAmmond is starting to look like a good experienced, talented pair that can play big minutes without fear. I guess its hard to believe because some people whine day after day that Murray has not allowed any chemistry to develop and that that is one of his flaws. Seems safe to say now, that that suggestion could not be made any longer by an informed Sens fan, n‘est ce pas?

I remember a game earlier this year when Galley I think was talking about Kelly, how the last game he had no goals and no points but was the games first star, and Murray had him out in all critical shifts: pp, pk, last minute of a period and game, key defensive zone faceoff, Kelly was there. Most fans couldn’t understand why the coach liked him there over their favourite player. That although many were calling in praising that games goal scorers, they were dismissing the games first star which was Kelly.

A multi-point game gets him an appreciation thread. I didnt think that would appreciate him for the right reasons, but he is now making me expect more too. Pisani or Selke though, that might be pushing it. But this thread makes my heart warm

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03-21-2007, 02:20 PM
  #39
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Originally Posted by thinkwild View Post
Comrie hasn’t looked good on the top line no matter how often some repeat it to themselves hoping to convince its true.
Wasn't this last game the first time he's been up there? It can't be more than the second, and I thought he looked pretty good, considering how cold Spezza and Heatley looked. And I'm not sure what that has to do with Kelly . . .
Quote:
Originally Posted by thinkwild
And of course Kelly has proven that he never looks out of place on the top line, much as it must pain many to admit their perceptions were wrong there.
. . . Ah, I see. Well, I'm sorry to say that I still disagree. Kelly's simple style meshed well with Heatley and Alfredsson when Spezza was out, but Kelly just does NOT work with Spezza-Heatley. He can be adequate there, but I don't feel that's an ideal role for him at all.
Quote:
Originally Posted by thinkwild
I guess its hard to believe because some people whine day after day that Murray has not allowed any chemistry to develop and that that is one of his flaws. Seems safe to say now, that that suggestion could not be made any longer by an informed Sens fan, n‘est ce pas?
Vermette and Kelly developed that chemistry last year, when both were fourth-line staples. I've already said that I understand what Murray is trying to do, but I'm not going to say that I now think it's the greatest strategy ever. There've been implications from people like Dean, Gary and Gord (so yes, grain of salt) that the players aren't thrilled with never knowing what line they'll be on from one day to the next -- I'm sorry, I'm still not crazy about that. This current consistency is nice, but it certainly hasn't been the norm during Murray's tenure.

Anyway, about Kelly: I've always appreciated him, I've just always thought he was more suited to a role other than top six. Good as he is, as much as he brings, I've felt that Murray tends to overrate him at times. I stand by that.

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03-21-2007, 03:10 PM
  #40
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I wouldn't give much value to those statistics. Kelly/Vermette have by far the most penalty killing minutes for our forwards and yet they are considered the worst? If Heatley is our best statistical PKer (according to that method) why does he have the least amount of PK time?

And Volchenkov is the worst statistical PKer? Phillips has over 300 minutes on the PK and on that list of 371 players there are only two others like him (Witt and Lidstrom), yet according to the +/- ranking we should be using Schubert. Obviously that method is deeply flawed when it comes to saying who is/isn't good on the PK.
I wouldn't say the method is deeply flawed. There are some problems. The first is sample size - Heatley and Schubert have just over 60 minutes on the PK, so I wouldn't put too much into their stats.

But the fact that Redden plays a regular PK shift and has only been on the ice for 7 PP goals against - that has to mean something.

The other potential problem is quality of competition. This is tracked on the site, and it shows that all the defencemen face roughly the same quality of competition, but then again so does the entire league. The problem with this measure is that if 2nd unit PK guys on every team faceoff against 2nd unit PP guys, the competitive balance will be roughly the same as the 1st unit PK guys against the 1st unit PP guys. As a result, everyone will have roughly the same +/- stats. Then it is impossible to distinguish between quality of competition based on +/-.

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Old
03-21-2007, 03:17 PM
  #41
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All I can say is we are certainly a VERY deep team offensively, when you think about the fact that we can afford to play the likes of Comrie, Mcammond, Eaves (all 20 goal scorers in previous years) on our FOURTH LINE ... now that's DEPTH !!

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03-21-2007, 04:02 PM
  #42
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All I can say is we are certainly a VERY deep team offensively, when you think about the fact that we can afford to play the likes of Comrie, Mcammond, Eaves (all 20 goal scorers in previous years) on our FOURTH LINE ... now that's DEPTH !!
really eh .. good point

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03-21-2007, 04:26 PM
  #43
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Wasn't this last game the first time he's been up there?
Nope

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Originally Posted by hockeycountry
It can't be more than the second,
Well yes, he’s played there a few times, including many games on pp’s and a couple 5 on 3’s. He’s had opportunities to step up, but he hasn’t produced as much as eaves or McAmmond there yet. But if you are looking for excuses for Comrie, he has also been playing through injury apparently. Comrie has some excuses I agree


Quote:
Originally Posted by hockeycountry
I thought he looked pretty good, considering how cold Spezza and Heatley looked.
As you say, the line didn’t look good with him on it. You can say it 3 times and click your heels, but Kelly has produced there and Comrie hasn’t had games with that line where all of us have afterwards said, wow he really clicks there, lets leave him there. Even those pulling for Comrie,, are generally hoping to give him some more time there hoping he will finally show something. But he hasn’t yet. Its late in the year now. But he will also have equal opportunity to demonstrate his chemistry on the top line just like eaves, mcammond, kelly, neil and alfie of course. All of whom have shown real chemistry on that line at times so far in their limited opportunities.


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Originally Posted by hockeycountry
Well, I'm sorry to say that I still disagree. Kelly's simple style meshed well with Heatley and Alfredsson when Spezza was out, but Kelly just does NOT work with Spezza-Heatley. He can be adequate there, but I don't feel that's an ideal role for him at all.
That’s ok, you can disagree, i don’t expect everyone to be man enough to admit they were wrong. But facts are Kelly’s simple style worked excellently with alfie and heater, making them a top line in the league. To suggest otherwise simply means logic has left you as a friend.

And Kelly brought Spezza and heater out of their slump and looked real good there which is something we havent been able to say about Comrie yet, much as I wish we could.

I know you don’t want him to be top 6, your biases are ingrained you have much bashing saying otherwise to protect. But Kelly’s not top 6, he has just shown some chemistry to be able to do it temporarily if the team needs a shakeup.

Quote:
I've just always thought he was more suited to a role other than top six. Good as he is, as much as he brings, I've felt that Murray tends to overrate him at times. I stand by that.
Yes, this is exactly what Galley and them were talking about when they said most fans were unable to appreciate why coaches all like Kelly, and put him in those situations, and vote him first star when he gets no goals or points. Many cant appreciate him until he gets points on the scoreboard. As is increasingly becoming clear, it is not Murray that overrates him, it is you that cannot properly evaluate him.

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03-21-2007, 04:28 PM
  #44
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I wouldn't say the method is deeply flawed. There are some problems. The first is sample size - Heatley and Schubert have just over 60 minutes on the PK, so I wouldn't put too much into their stats.

But the fact that Redden plays a regular PK shift and has only been on the ice for 7 PP goals against - that has to mean something.

The other potential problem is quality of competition. This is tracked on the site, and it shows that all the defencemen face roughly the same quality of competition, but then again so does the entire league. The problem with this measure is that if 2nd unit PK guys on every team faceoff against 2nd unit PP guys, the competitive balance will be roughly the same as the 1st unit PK guys against the 1st unit PP guys. As a result, everyone will have roughly the same +/- stats. Then it is impossible to distinguish between quality of competition based on +/-.

I don't think there's anything flawed about the 'method'. It's not really a method (it's just PK +/-) any more than regular +/- is a 'method'. It has the same problems as regular +/-.

I agree that the difference in quality of competition is numerically small, but those who play against a just slightly higher level of competition are doing something significant.

The Ottawa PK can't be split into distinct groups:

#1 Phillips, Vermette, Kelly, Volchenkov: opponent PP from +4.75 to +4.77
#2 Mcammond, Schaefer, Alfredsson, Fisher, Meszaros, Redden: PP +4.5 to +4.65
#3 Schubert, Corvo, Heatley: low icetime, Opponent PP from +4.27 to +4.39

Heatley's just not getting the tough PK assignments. You wouldn't put him on the top line any more than you'd take a guy from your 4th line and put him on the PP because he had a few good months beating up other 4th lines.

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03-21-2007, 04:47 PM
  #45
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Right... but if the difference in opponents +/- between groups is only 0.2, then the implication is that there should be only a 0.2 difference in the groups' +/- if they are playing at the same level. In reality we are seeing larger differences than this.

Imagine that across the league all the 2nd PK units consistently lined up against the 2nd PP units. The 2nd PK units would then have easier competition than the 1st PK units, but this might not be shown by your statistics, because the 2nd PP would have inflated numbers compared to the 1st PP (on the virtue of playing against the weaker PK).

That was a bit confusing. All i'm trying to say is:
- playing against all the weaker PKs inflates the 2nd PP's +/-
- as a result, the 2nd PKs appear to be playing against more difficult competition than they are

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03-21-2007, 05:34 PM
  #46
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Right... but if the difference in opponents +/- between groups is only 0.2, then the implication is that there should be only a 0.2 difference in the groups' +/- if they are playing at the same level. In reality we are seeing larger differences than this.

Imagine that across the league all the 2nd PK units consistently lined up against the 2nd PP units. The 2nd PK units would then have easier competition than the 1st PK units, but this might not be shown by your statistics, because the 2nd PP would have inflated numbers compared to the 1st PP (on the virtue of playing against the weaker PK).

That was a bit confusing. All i'm trying to say is:
- playing against all the weaker PKs inflates the 2nd PP's +/-
- as a result, the 2nd PKs appear to be playing against more difficult competition than they are
I agree with what you are saying. Let's look at some even-strength +/- stats:

Denis Hamel +1.39 +-/60 mins, Avg opponent -0.128
Mike Comrie -0.54 +-/60 mins, Avg opponent -0.014

The difference between the opponents they faced was ~0.11 goals/game, but that shouldn't matter compared to Hamel's +1.93 goal/game +/- advantage. Yet we would never argue that Hamel should take Comrie's minutes.

The Opponent's PP or Quality of Competition numbers are just an assessment of performance as opposed to an exact measure of how different a guy's +/- would be if he played against different players.

A difference in +/- of 0.11 is a huge deal because it means Hamel's getting almost the softest minutes in the league. Same with Heatley. The magnitude of the difference may not be huge, but playing against the weakest competition of the entire Ottawa team is what's significant, not the absolute delta between Volchenkov and Heatley.

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03-21-2007, 06:08 PM
  #47
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Kelly? He stinks.

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03-21-2007, 06:27 PM
  #48
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Kelly? He stinks.
Looks at post content.

Looks at poster

O.o

*brain alternates between imploding and exploding to the end of time*

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Old
03-21-2007, 07:07 PM
  #49
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Well yes, he’s played there a few times, including many games on pp’s and a couple 5 on 3’s. He’s had opportunities to step up, but he hasn’t produced as much as eaves or McAmmond there yet. But if you are looking for excuses for Comrie, he has also been playing through injury apparently. Comrie has some excuses I agree
Okay, but playing there on the PP is not the same as playing on the line 5-on-5. Also, I don't think I'm looking for or making excuses for Comrie in thinking his good play of late has earned him a fair shot.
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Originally Posted by thinkwild
As you say, the line didn’t look good with him on it. You can say it 3 times and click your heels, but Kelly has produced there and Comrie hasn’t had games with that line where all of us have afterwards said, wow he really clicks there, lets leave him there. Even those pulling for Comrie,, are generally hoping to give him some more time there hoping he will finally show something. But he hasn’t yet. Its late in the year now. But he will also have equal opportunity to demonstrate his chemistry on the top line just like eaves, mcammond, kelly, neil and alfie of course. All of whom have shown real chemistry on that line at times so far in their limited opportunities.
For starters, Neil was TERRIBLE on that line. Secondly, Sapyrkin and McAmmond are the only guys that I'd say have had "limited" opportunities on the top line.

I also can't remember Kelly ever significantly producing on the top line -- even Murray would say "that isn't his job there," and later on in this post, you said that people should appreciate everything he brings outside of points -- so what does this prove? No, I didn't think he was an ideal fit there, and yes, it was partially because there was a long stretch when he would flub golden scoring opportunity after golden scoring opportunity, and from a scoring line, that gets frustrating. Feeling that way and appreciating the skill set he does have are not mutually exclusive. I don't judge anyone by the scoresheet alone.

And I don't understand why any of this even matters, to be honest with you. I'm not attacking Kelly here, or pitting him against Comrie. I don't even prefer Comrie on the top line in the long run; I just think he should get as fair a look as the other people you listed.
Quote:
Originally Posted by thinkwild
That’s ok, you can disagree, i don’t expect everyone to be man enough to admit they were wrong. But facts are Kelly’s simple style worked excellently with alfie and heater, making them a top line in the league. To suggest otherwise simply means logic has left you as a friend.

And Kelly brought Spezza and heater out of their slump and looked real good there which is something we havent been able to say about Comrie yet, much as I wish we could.
Heh, I wish you could disagree with me without belittling my opinion.

If you look again at what you quoted, I specifically said that I thought his style worked very well with Heatley and Alfredsson in that time period. (And it would be grossly unfair to Heatley and Alfie's amazing play during that stretch to suggest that that was all Kelly, just as it would be grossly unfair to Kelly to suggest that he had no part in it.) I just don't believe it works the same way on wing with Heatley and Spezza, which is a completely different thing. Hell, even the Heatley-Kelly-Alfie line has lost most of the magic by the time Spezza came back, which, if I recall correctly, was part of the reason that Spezza and Heatley were reunited.

Honestly, while it may well have happened, I don't recall Kelly bringing Spezza and Heatley out of a slump so I can't comment on that.
Quote:
Originally Posted by thinkwild
I know you don’t want him to be top 6, your biases are ingrained you have much bashing saying otherwise to protect. But Kelly’s not top 6, he has just shown some chemistry to be able to do it temporarily if the team needs a shakeup.

...

Yes, this is exactly what Galley and them were talking about when they said most fans were unable to appreciate why coaches all like Kelly, and put him in those situations, and vote him first star when he gets no goals or points. Many cant appreciate him until he gets points on the scoreboard. As is increasingly becoming clear, it is not Murray that overrates him, it is you that cannot properly evaluate him.
. . . What? If you think that preferring him in a certain role is the same thing as bashing him, then I have no idea what to say. Believe it or not, my opinions aren't based on biases or trying to prove myself right in spite of any logic that might stand in my way. I'm happy to eat crow about anything about which I've been wrong -- Kelly included.

To sum up: I'm happy to see him playing well. I simply think he's better in certain places in the lineup than he is in others, just like pretty much everyone else in the lineup. Spezza's my favourite player, and I'm sure I'd find him godawful on a checking line, because that isn't his strength. I prefer Kelly on a line like his current one to being on a scoring line. I fail to see how wanting him to perform at his maximum comfort level to his maximum abilities is so insulting. This is not The World v. Kelly here.

Anyway, this was a nice thread, so now I will return it to its regularly scheduled appreciation.


Last edited by hockeycountry: 03-21-2007 at 07:13 PM.
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03-21-2007, 07:51 PM
  #50
pepty
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PatrickEaves View Post
Looks at post content.

Looks at poster

O.o

*brain alternates between imploding and exploding to the end of time*
BingoSensFan is a great poster and has always been a Kelly booster.

I can only guess he's hoping to convince us that Kelly should be back in the AHL.

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