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Concern about Tavares

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Old
03-22-2007, 04:00 AM
  #76
Hawksfan2828
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Originally Posted by Big Phil View Post
I know he's only 16 and its no big deal right now but a little shocking to me that a 72 goal scorer - who scored tem more than the next closest - isnt anywhere to be seen on certain league leading lists in the OHL. On the game winning goals, insurance goal and first goals he isnt even on the top 20 on either list in the OHL. On PP goals he's first with 34. He also had 6 shorties. But you'd think he'd have racked up more game winners or bigger clutch goals.

Does this concern anyone else? That just jumped right out at me. Is Tavares the type of guy that rackes up a bunch of points. Crosby scores a lot, and at the right time. Tavares doesnt seem to.
I dont know lets see what happens when hes 17??

Prediction over 100 goals and 75 assists for 188 pts in 67 games played.

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Old
03-22-2007, 05:17 AM
  #77
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Doctor Dark-

so you'd trade Kopitar, Frolov, Cammalerri, and even Jack Johnson to get this guy? That's hockeys future for you, trade proven commodities for potential.

and I don't think there are many Oiler fans that would've traded any of those players, and their cups for Lemieux and a bunch of maybes. Especially when you consider some of the financial troubles they had later on(err their owners)

Tavares may end up being a great player but he's just a great prospect alot of things can happen in two years. It also disappoints me to say 'some team will be lucky to have him' yeah by virtue of having to watch their team lose ALOT! again HF for you.

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03-22-2007, 07:46 AM
  #78
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Originally Posted by RallyKiller View Post
Doctor Dark-

so you'd trade Kopitar, Frolov, Cammalerri, and even Jack Johnson to get this guy? That's hockeys future for you, trade proven commodities for potential.

and I don't think there are many Oiler fans that would've traded any of those players, and their cups for Lemieux and a bunch of maybes. Especially when you consider some of the financial troubles they had later on(err their owners)

Tavares may end up being a great player but he's just a great prospect alot of things can happen in two years. It also disappoints me to say 'some team will be lucky to have him' yeah by virtue of having to watch their team lose ALOT! again HF for you.
Think about it - if you were to trade all of your roster (no JJ) for Tavares' rights, you could sign a couple of vets in the off-season and fill in your ranks with some skilled minor-pro guys, plus still have prospects like Bernier, Johnson, Sully, Lewis, etc. coming up through the ranks. Next year you'd be garbage, so you'd be able to pick Stamkos or Doughty.

The Kings roster in Sept. '09 could have Tavares, Stamkos, Sully and Lewis in the top 6, JJ and Boyle on defense and Bernier in net, with the rest of the roster fleshed out with big money UFAs (which you'd be able to afford your team core is still young and cheap).

Doesn't sound too bad to me. A few more years of sucktitude (which are vitually guaranteed by Cloutier anyway) for a brighter future.

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Old
03-22-2007, 11:13 AM
  #79
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Originally Posted by Juan View Post
Elaborate for me a little on why you feel there is "no comparison" between Tavares' 72 goals at 16 years old and Godden's 87 goals at 19 years old. For as I said in a previous post, both achievements are equally as rare, in fact singly unique, in the history of the OHL.
I'd be more than happy to elaborate.

Put simply. It's excelling against older competition vs. excelling against younger competition.

Tavares is three years younger (actually, three and a half) than Godden was and achieving his feat while being among the youngest players in major junior hockey. (Because of his late birthdate, Tavares was still among the youngest 16-year-olds in the CHL even though this past season was his second year of major junior.) Godden was 19 when he turned his impressive trick -- and I grant you, 87 goals in the OHL in 1981 is impressive.

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/p....php3?pid=7430

OT: Seems a shame Godden only got five games in the NHL to prove himself. He put up decent numbers in two years in the AHL. Does anyone know why he quit pro hockey and what became of him?

Back to topic.

Tavares's goal total was 15 lower than Godden's, but when I consider the difference in age, Tavares's feat is much more impressive and becomes, for me, an indicator that he is a special talent.

In major junior hockey, you have 16 to 19 year olds with a few 20-year-olds. At 19, players are expected to be the top performers because they are more physically mature and have more experience.

At 16, most major junior players are struggling to make the adjustment. The talented ones can do well, but they are the exception. Tavares, at 16, was a phenomenal scorer and led all of major junior hockey in goals while being the among the youngest at that level.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Juan View Post
And wouldn't you agree with me, then, that if there is indeed "no comparison" from a prospect evaluation standpoint, then implicit in that assertion is the belief that Tavares at 19 years old will have much better production than Godden?
Implicit in that assertion, as I see it, is that Tavares will be in the NHL at age 19. He will not have a chance to challenge Ernie Godden's record for most goals in the OHL by a 19-year-old. Do I think he will match Godden's record? No. For the next two seasons, Tavares will be on Canada's junior team and will miss a month of the season (Approximately 10 games). That would mean he would need to score 87 goals in 58 games. He'll have two years of junior hockey left, so it's possible, but I wouldn't bet on it.

The other thing, as I mentioned in my earlier post, is you have no way of predicting how much Tavares is going to develop over the next two seasons. At 17 and 18, most junior players take big leaps in development. If Tavares is on a normal development curve, he should improve a lot in the next two years and wouldn't that be impressive?

Over the next two years, Tavares will become more physically mature. He will work on and improve his skating. This is all good and bodes well for an improvement in future performance -- in the OHL and the NHL.

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Old
03-22-2007, 01:44 PM
  #80
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ISS View Post
I'd be more than happy to elaborate.

Put simply. It's excelling against older competition vs. excelling against younger competition.

Tavares is three years younger (actually, three and a half) than Godden was and achieving his feat while being among the youngest players in major junior hockey. (Because of his late birthdate, Tavares was still among the youngest 16-year-olds in the CHL even though this past season was his second year of major junior.) Godden was 19 when he turned his impressive trick -- and I grant you, 87 goals in the OHL in 1981 is impressive.

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/p....php3?pid=7430

OT: Seems a shame Godden only got five games in the NHL to prove himself. He put up decent numbers in two years in the AHL. Does anyone know why he quit pro hockey and what became of him?

Back to topic.

Tavares's goal total was 15 lower than Godden's, but when I consider the difference in age, Tavares's feat is much more impressive and becomes, for me, an indicator that he is a special talent.

In major junior hockey, you have 16 to 19 year olds with a few 20-year-olds. At 19, players are expected to be the top performers because they are more physically mature and have more experience.

At 16, most major junior players are struggling to make the adjustment. The talented ones can do well, but they are the exception. Tavares, at 16, was a phenomenal scorer and led all of major junior hockey in goals while being the among the youngest at that level.



Implicit in that assertion, as I see it, is that Tavares will be in the NHL at age 19. He will not have a chance to challenge Ernie Godden's record for most goals in the OHL by a 19-year-old. Do I think he will match Godden's record? No. For the next two seasons, Tavares will be on Canada's junior team and will miss a month of the season (Approximately 10 games). That would mean he would need to score 87 goals in 58 games. He'll have two years of junior hockey left, so it's possible, but I wouldn't bet on it.

The other thing, as I mentioned in my earlier post, is you have no way of predicting how much Tavares is going to develop over the next two seasons. At 17 and 18, most junior players take big leaps in development. If Tavares is on a normal development curve, he should improve a lot in the next two years and wouldn't that be impressive?

Over the next two years, Tavares will become more physically mature. He will work on and improve his skating. This is all good and bodes well for an improvement in future performance -- in the OHL and the NHL.
I agree 100% with everything you have said. However, all of the age-related advantages that 19-year-old Godden possessed over 16-year-old Tavares have also been possessed by the thousands of other 19-year-olds who have played in the OHL. But he was the only one out of thousands to do what he did, score 87 goals in a season.

Again, to say there is "no comparison" between what Tavares has done and what Godden did just doesn't seem quite right when they were the only ones in the history of the league to reach their respective marks. I think Godden is suffering in your analysis from hindsight in knowing that he never went on to become an NHL player, whereas Tavares' future in the NHL is seen by most as a mortal lock.

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Old
03-22-2007, 02:18 PM
  #81
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Originally Posted by doctordark View Post
Not necessarily. Look at Mike Bossy's production in the Q. Starting at age 16, his goal totals went 70, 84, 79, and 75. He didn't ever surpass 87 goals, yet judging by his NHL totals, he certainly didn't stagnate or reach his peak early.

Also, regarding the 19 year old production theory, did you ever take into account that maybe Godden's 87 goal record has stood for so long in part because most phenoms join the NHL at 18 and don't have an opportunity to spend an extra year or two in junior? No 16 year old prodigy is turning pro no matter how good he is, so Tavares' numbers are comparable with the best in his age group without exception, while Godden's aren't.

Next time, you might want to save the Latin until you've actually proven something. Otherwise it just looks ostentatious.
That's a good point. However, when Tavares plays his final year in the OHL he will actually be only six months younger that Godden was when he scored his 87 goals, and will have the advantage of one more previous year in the league. It's my position that Tavares will thereby be on relatively equal footing with Godden in terms of the age/experience-related potential to score goals in his final year in the OHL.

So let me ask you: keeping in mind this relatively equal footing, will you continue to want to trade any Penguin except Crosby for the rights to Tavares if he scores 75-80 goals in his final OHL season (prorated for his time away at the WJC)?

As an aside, my usage of a well-known Latin phrase assumed a reader with a degree of intelligence and linguistic sophistication that would find such usage reasonable and contextually appropriate rather than ostentatious.

Mea culpa.

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Old
03-22-2007, 03:58 PM
  #82
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Originally Posted by doctordark View Post
Think about it - if you were to trade all of your roster (no JJ) for Tavares' rights, you could sign a couple of vets in the off-season and fill in your ranks with some skilled minor-pro guys, plus still have prospects like Bernier, Johnson, Sully, Lewis, etc. coming up through the ranks. Next year you'd be garbage, so you'd be able to pick Stamkos or Doughty.

The Kings roster in Sept. '09 could have Tavares, Stamkos, Sully and Lewis in the top 6, JJ and Boyle on defense and Bernier in net, with the rest of the roster fleshed out with big money UFAs (which you'd be able to afford your team core is still young and cheap).

Doesn't sound too bad to me. A few more years of sucktitude (which are vitually guaranteed by Cloutier anyway) for a brighter future.
I wouldn't trade the entire kings roster if I were a Kings fan because you never know what can happen over the course of two years. And I surely wouldn't trade cups for a player either.

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Old
03-22-2007, 04:40 PM
  #83
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Originally Posted by Juan View Post
That's a good point. However, when Tavares plays his final year in the OHL he will actually be only six months younger that Godden was when he scored his 87 goals, and will have the advantage of one more previous year in the league. It's my position that Tavares will thereby be on relatively equal footing with Godden in terms of the age/experience-related potential to score goals in his final year in the OHL.

So let me ask you: keeping in mind this relatively equal footing, will you continue to want to trade any Penguin except Crosby for the rights to Tavares if he scores 75-80 goals in his final OHL season (prorated for his time away at the WJC)?

As an aside, my usage of a well-known Latin phrase assumed a reader with a degree of intelligence and linguistic sophistication that would find such usage reasonable and contextually appropriate rather than ostentatious.

Mea culpa.
If Tavares were to score 75-80 goals in his final OHL season, there'd really be no reason to doubt my original trade offer. Beating Godden's single-season goal-scoring record is of very little importance to Tavares' development, though it might make for a nice accomplishment.

Time and time again we've seen players put up gaudy numbers in their later junior terms only to fizzle in their pro careers. As recently as last year, Maxime Boisclair had 70 goals in the Q but only managed to put up 1 point in 17 AHL games this season, and his NHL outlook is not too promising. Often, players who aren't very good in their early junior careers can eventually later on find ideal linemates or get comfortable in a specific situation and put up numbers which aren't really commensurate with their pro adaptablilty. Godden just seemed to flourish here more than most - he's really the poster boy for not basing a prospect's pro projectability on late junior stats.

But for Tavares to put up 70+ goals as a 16 year old is a very considerable achievement, and shows an innate nose for the net plus an ability to adapt immediately to new, older, and more challenging opposition. We have examples of players who have notched 70+ goals at 18, 19, and 20 but failed to do anything of consequence afterward, but I'd like for you to find me some negative examples of junior players who've scored 60+ goals as 16 year olds but failed to pan out. I don't think you can.

And as to the Latin, my take is that outside of a Classical or didactic context, it's mostly used as a rhetorical device to add extra gravitas to an argument without actually saying much of merit. It's particularly noxious when used prematurely.

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Old
03-25-2007, 01:31 PM
  #84
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Juan View Post
I agree 100% with everything you have said. However, all of the age-related advantages that 19-year-old Godden possessed over 16-year-old Tavares have also been possessed by the thousands of other 19-year-olds who have played in the OHL. But he was the only one out of thousands to do what he did, score 87 goals in a season.

Again, to say there is "no comparison" between what Tavares has done and what Godden did just doesn't seem quite right when they were the only ones in the history of the league to reach their respective marks. I think Godden is suffering in your analysis from hindsight in knowing that he never went on to become an NHL player, whereas Tavares' future in the NHL is seen by most as a mortal lock.
It wasn't simply Ernie Godden's age that allowed him to score 87 goals. He obviously had some skill and it seems a shame that he didn't get more of a chance to prove himself in the NHL. After playing two seasons with the St. Catharines Saints of the AHL -- during which he had a five-game sting with the Maple Leafs, he played a season in Europe then retired. Had he been bigger, or played in the 21st century where there is more emphasis on skill than size, maybe he'd have gotten a better shake.

As for Godden suffering in my analysis because of the benefit of hindsight, I don't think so. It's simply a matter of giving a player more credit for being able to dominate against players who are much older (Tavares) vs. a player who is able to dominate against younger players (Godden). The same theory holds true today and will always hold true in our opinion.

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