HFBoards

Go Back   HFBoards > NHL Eastern Conference > Metropolitan Division > Philadelphia Flyers
Mobile Hockey's Future Become a Sponsor Site Rules Support Forum vBookie Page 2
Notices

Cup hopes and the Flyers' defensive prospects

Reply
 
Thread Tools
Old
06-18-2014, 09:21 PM
  #1
Haanz
Registered User
 
Haanz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Posts: 106
vCash: 500
Cup hopes and the Flyers' defensive prospects

There are those on this board who are hoping for Gostisbehere, Morin, or Hagg to develop into that number one defenseman the Flyers so desperately need. I’m sure most are aware there’s no guarantee that any of them will develop into such a defenseman. However, in the event that one (or more) of them does, fans will need to be patient and wait quite some time for that to happen. Probably longer than most expect.

The NHL began tracking each player’s time on ice during the 1998-99 season. A player’s average time on ice per game is referred to as ‘’ATOI’’. Since then, only three defensemen under the age of 25 have won a Stanley Cup as one of the top four ATOI defensemen on their team in the playoffs (note: I am going by the age of the player on the date his team won the Cup):

Drew Doughty in 2012 and 2014 (age 22 and 24; ranked first on team both seasons)

Slava Voynov in 2012 and 2014 (age 22 and 24; ranked fourth and third on team, respectively)

Niklas Hjalmarsson in 2010 (age 23; ranked fourth on team)

Of the three, only Doughty was amongst the top two on his team in ATOI. This is a player who went 2nd overall in his draft year, won an Olympic Gold medal on Team Canada at the age of 20, and played in 316 NHL regular season games prior to the start of the 2012 playoffs. Needless to say, none of Gostisbehere, Morin, or Hagg is anywhere near Doughty’s level when he was their age. As such, it would be unreasonable to expect that any of them could accomplish what only Doughty has been in able to in the past 15+ years (that is, contribute as one of the top two defensemen on a Stanley Cup-winning team while being under the age of 25).

The following seasons should then be viewed as the absolute earliest one could reasonably hope for any of these prospects to possibly be able to contribute in such a manner:

Gostisbehere: 2017-18
Morin: 2020-21
Hagg: 2019-20

Giroux will turn 30 during the 2017-18 season and will be at the tail end of his offensive prime. By the time the 2020-21 playoffs roll around, G will be 33. Therefore, if the Flyers hope to win a Cup while their franchise player is still in his prime, their top defenseman (or two) is almost certainly not presently a member of the Flyers organization. And if any of these prospects do in fact develop into Cup-caliber top pairing defensemen, Giroux’s prime will likely be long gone.

On a side note, the only under-24 player to have been a top two ATOI forward on a Cup-winning team while not having been a top three draft pick was Ryan Getzlaf in 2007 (Crosby and Malkin in 2009 and Kane and Toews in 2010 were the only under-24 players drafted in the top three to accomplish this).

Haanz is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
06-18-2014, 10:08 PM
  #2
Phillyfan28
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2013
Posts: 217
vCash: 500
I appreciate the time you took to write this.

With that being said, what is your recommended course of action, considering this information.

Trade Giroux and company and enter a full rebuild?

I think the problem with this research is that there are many dominant D-men that very well may have the ability to lead their respective teams to the cup, but don't have the supporting cast

Phillyfan28 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
06-18-2014, 10:31 PM
  #3
hockeyfreak7
Registered User
 
hockeyfreak7's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: Charlottesville
Posts: 9,388
vCash: 500
If Doughty/Voynov didn't do it this year, McDonagh would have done it for NYR. And Letang was off by 7 seconds per game in 2009. Meszaros (lol) made it to the SCF as a top four guy in Ottawa in 2007.

I appreciate what you're saying, but I think it's more of a statistical oddity than a hard and fast rule. Having a young defender in the lineup contributing in a core role does not preclude you from making a run. For example, Dougie Hamilton has five years until he's 25. Does this mean Boston can't win a Cup for another five years? Is Cam Fowler stopping Anaheim from winning a Cup? Olli Maatta in Pittsburgh?

Basically, I think it's perfectly okay to have a youngster in a core role. The only lesson to be gleaned from this analysis (and it's a very good one) is not to rely on too many youngsters at a given time.

But I don't see us having that problem. I think the only player who will be contributing in a core role any time soon is Ghost. Morin still has a long way to go, and I don't see Hagg as being more than a steady bottom pairing guy (imo). Ghost very well could be be a core player within the next two or three years.

hockeyfreak7 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
06-18-2014, 11:08 PM
  #4
Haanz
Registered User
 
Haanz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Posts: 106
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Phillyfan28 View Post
I appreciate the time you took to write this.

With that being said, what is your recommended course of action, considering this information.

Trade Giroux and company and enter a full rebuild?

I think the problem with this research is that there are many dominant D-men that very well may have the ability to lead their respective teams to the cup, but don't have the supporting cast
That's a valid point. But when you look at the top defensemen around the league, nearly all of them didn't become dominant all-around defenders until their mid-20s. Up until this season, Shea Weber's best offensive season was in 2008-09; however, I would argue his all-around game did not evolve into ''elite'' territory until at least another season or two after that. P.K. Subban won the Norris a year ago and looked like a world-beater through the first two rounds of this year's playoffs but was certainly underwhelming in the Conference Finals. Could either of them have been a top four defenseman on a Cup-winning team before they hit 25? No question. Top two? Probably. The number one guy? Maybe, maybe not.

As far as how I would proceed, I'm certainly not willing to put all our eggs in the ''wait for our prospects'' basket. Nor am I in favor of trading Giroux and entering a rebuild. To be honest, I don't think there's a move to be made at the present moment that would transform the team into contending status, now or in the future. I doubt we will be able to pick up a top defender through free agency in the next several years so the most likely option is via trade.

Haanz is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
06-18-2014, 11:15 PM
  #5
Tripod
Registered User
 
Tripod's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Nova Scotia
Country: Canada
Posts: 12,078
vCash: 500
It should be no surprise that this happens as people have always said that defensemen take longer to develop. And of course there are exceptions to that.

And that is why I said before that we are built backwards. We have all the forwards going into primes before we have our D set. But really, when you look at the ages of our D, it seems like it's close to the right mix of ages. Some cagey vets, 3 guys in their late 20's and then a young 24 year old. Only problem is that our guys are all average.

Tripod is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
06-18-2014, 11:24 PM
  #6
kyuss
Registered User
 
kyuss's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2012
Posts: 304
vCash: 500
This is why Luke Schenn is our most important player.

I'm not sure TOI/G is the sure-fire indicator of what we're looking for. Special teams can change everything. I'm glancing over the past few Cup winners and I'm seeing some surprises in the difference between TOI/g leaders and ES TOI/g leaders.

Rafalski over Lidstrom; Orpik, Scuderi, and Gill over Gonchar; Oduya second to Keith but over Seabrook; and, obviously, the Flyers were the runner up in 2010, but Carle over Pronger.

I'm equally surprised that Seidenberg led Chara in both ES and Total.

Keith and Doughty are they only guys I found (I only went back to the '08) who led in both, and they lead their teams by far. Doughty played more than two more games worth of time than the rest of Kings d-men in this past finals

Sorry if I'm getting things off track; I know the OP is about young #1's, but I was going to compare the Flyers strong forward core and a D of role players including Ghost to the Pens and their cup winners with Letang, but I found the discrepancy in usage interesting.

Basically, were not doomed if none of those three becomes a hero immediately. We can contend if one to two of them to become pretty good soon while everyone is being used correctly.

kyuss is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
06-18-2014, 11:38 PM
  #7
Haanz
Registered User
 
Haanz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Posts: 106
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by hockeyfreak7 View Post
If Doughty/Voynov didn't do it this year, McDonagh would have done it for NYR. And Letang was off by 7 seconds per game in 2009. Meszaros (lol) made it to the SCF as a top four guy in Ottawa in 2007.

I appreciate what you're saying, but I think it's more of a statistical oddity than a hard and fast rule. Having a young defender in the lineup contributing in a core role does not preclude you from making a run. For example, Dougie Hamilton has five years until he's 25. Does this mean Boston can't win a Cup for another five years? Is Cam Fowler stopping Anaheim from winning a Cup? Olli Maatta in Pittsburgh?

Basically, I think it's perfectly okay to have a youngster in a core role. The only lesson to be gleaned from this analysis (and it's a very good one) is not to rely on too many youngsters at a given time.

But I don't see us having that problem. I think the only player who will be contributing in a core role any time soon is Ghost. Morin still has a long way to go, and I don't see Hagg as being more than a steady bottom pairing guy (imo). Ghost very well could be be a core player within the next two or three years.
I would argue that last season when McDonagh (who actually turned 25 on Game 5 of this year's Final) was 23, he was not yet capable of being THE guy on a Cup-winner. His improvement from last season to this has been nothing short of remarkable. Which is more or less the point I'm trying to make, that the number one guy is almost always going to be at least in his mid-20s.

Is Hamilton ready to replace Chara's presence as top dog anytime soon? I'm not so sure. In the next couple years, will Fowler be able to replicate what Niedermayer brought to the '07 team (fun fact - it was Beauchemin who led that team in ATOI in the playoffs, ahead of both Pronger and Niedermayer!)? I'm a big fan of Fowler's but don't think he'll reach that level quite yet.

Regarding Ghost, I sure hope he's able to be a core contributor in the next few years, which is when he will be entering his mid-20s. But will he ever become that true number one guy the Flyers (and most teams, for that matter) lack? If he does, it probably won't be in the all-too-near future.

Haanz is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
06-19-2014, 12:25 AM
  #8
Funf
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: Philadelphia
Country: United States
Posts: 1,012
vCash: 500
I agree with what you're saying, but it seems like it could be a bit circumstantial. The number of stud, under 25 defensemen in the NHL is fairly low in general, so I think the sample size could be skewing the results here.

The other thing is that most great young defensemen are drafted with a top 5 pick, and come on to a rebuilding team. They might not get a chance to play for a contender for a number of years.

But it is worrying. I'm holding out hope that Giroux is one of those freak's of nature that can keep producing into his 30's. There's got to be at least one current superstar that's going to last forever, right?!

Funf is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
06-19-2014, 12:31 AM
  #9
The Dream
User Registered
 
The Dream's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Country: United States
Posts: 4,199
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Funf View Post
I agree with what you're saying, but it seems like it could be a bit circumstantial. The number of stud, under 25 defensemen in the NHL is fairly low in general, so I think the sample size could be skewing the results here.

The other thing is that most great young defensemen are drafted with a top 5 pick, and come on to a rebuilding team. They might not get a chance to play for a contender for a number of years.

But it is worrying. I'm holding out hope that Giroux is one of those freak's of nature that can keep producing into his 30's. There's got to be at least one current superstar that's going to last forever, right?!
Giroux has that play style in which he could be still very successful into his mid 30's.

The Dream is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
06-19-2014, 12:33 AM
  #10
hockeyfreak7
Registered User
 
hockeyfreak7's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: Charlottesville
Posts: 9,388
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Funf View Post
I agree with what you're saying, but it seems like it could be a bit circumstantial. The number of stud, under 25 defensemen in the NHL is fairly low in general, so I think the sample size could be skewing the results here.

The other thing is that most great young defensemen are drafted with a top 5 pick, and come on to a rebuilding team. They might not get a chance to play for a contender for a number of years.

But it is worrying. I'm holding out hope that Giroux is one of those freak's of nature that can keep producing into his 30's. There's got to be at least one current superstar that's going to last forever, right?!
There is strong evidence that playmakers age better than goal scorers. Giroux has been highly durable other than those five games lost due to Simmonds's knee in 2012 as well...

And his game doesn't rely on speed. It's much more about control, vision, and creativity which are things that generally stick around with age. A guy like Henrik Sedin remained a PPG guy until he was 30. And the Canucks were a train wreck last year, so he may be a 70 point guy still. Giroux shares a lot of the same tools, so a similar aging path wouldn't surprise me there. Zetterberg is another playmaker who doesn't rely on speed, and he's aged gracefully as well.

hockeyfreak7 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
06-19-2014, 01:07 AM
  #11
GoneFullHextall
Fire Berube
 
GoneFullHextall's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Somewhere in NH
Country: United States
Posts: 33,940
vCash: 50
I still think and I know some don't want to hear it that it is best to stay the course. This team as it stands right now is not a Cup contender. A playoff contender sure, but they are a ways off from being a top contender. Let the young defenseman mature and develop the right way. If it means sending Morin back to junior and having Hagg in the AHL for a full season so be it. I think Alt and Ghost will see some time with the big club this season.
Point is there is no easy fixes out there. Nobody is going to trade their number 1 guy in the prime of their career. in a few seasons if this forward group is still together they will mostly still be in the prime of their career when some of these young kids are ready to make a impact.

GoneFullHextall is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
06-19-2014, 01:10 AM
  #12
beetee15
Registered User
 
beetee15's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2010
Posts: 192
vCash: 500
idk these dates seem a little exaggerated

beetee15 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
06-19-2014, 08:55 AM
  #13
dats81
Registered User
 
dats81's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: Carinthia
Country: Austria
Posts: 2,530
vCash: 500
So we may get to the point very soon where Hextall will have to pull another Pronger-like trade to acquire a minute eating allstar first pairing defenseman or we are stuck retooling for the next decade?

dats81 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
06-19-2014, 09:19 AM
  #14
Flyotes
DownieFaceSoftener
 
Flyotes's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 5,453
vCash: 500
Certainly a concern, but there are many ways to skin a cat. 2019-2020 area is far away -- hard to know what will be successful then as the NHL is always evolving. Hit hard on a few players or draft picks and G being running out of his prime won't be the biggest issue as G should have other stud players around him (hopefully one other great player). It's up to management to get them in here.

Good post.

Flyotes is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
06-19-2014, 10:12 AM
  #15
Prongo
Beer
 
Prongo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: philadelphia
Country: United States
Posts: 14,873
vCash: 500
I for one am hoping Morin takes more of a Alex Peitrangelo development curve to the NHL. Spend two years in juniors then come into the NHL as a man ready to ready to make an impact. Not thinking he will produce like Piety, but I wouldn't be surprised if he comes into the league and is in our top 4 immediately.

Prongo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
06-19-2014, 11:27 AM
  #16
Striiker
Orange and Black
 
Striiker's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2013
Location: Lehigh Valley, PA
Country: United States
Posts: 9,422
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tpinheiro4 View Post
Giroux has that play style in which he could be still very successful into his mid 30's.
He could end up similar to MSL.. who knows. But he doesn't seem like the kind of player who will quickly decline because of how great his hockey mind and vision are. It's not like he's a Hartnell or Richards type player where his body will wear down.

Striiker is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Forum Jump


Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 11:49 PM.

monitoring_string = "e4251c93e2ba248d29da988d93bf5144"
Contact Us - HFBoards - Archive - Privacy Statement - Terms of Use - Advertise - Top - AdChoices

vBulletin Copyright ©2000 - 2015, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
HFBoards.com is a property of CraveOnline Media, LLC, an Evolve Media, LLC company. ©2015 All Rights Reserved.