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Caley's Probability Draft

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06-25-2014, 11:34 AM
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Caley's Probability Draft

I tend to feel like mock drafts are mostly a waste of time, people (myself included in the past) spend all this time figuring out who teams are going to take only for one trade to scuttle the whole list. So, instead of a mock draft, I'm going to do a Probability Draft. After doing a quick study of what GMs tend to do at the draft table, where they draft from, what they do with first rounders, recent trends, I present to you.

For the sake of clarity, I've broken down the sources as so: OHL, WHL, QMJHL, USHL, US National Team Development Program (Admittedly, they have played in the USHL the last few years, but didn't for the full length of this study, so, for easiness' sake, they are listed separate, NCAA, Tier-2 (Comprising basically any North American junior league that doesn't fit in the other categories: the BCHL, OPJHL, CCHL, NAHL, etc. etc,). For European players, I've referred to them by country alone, as it's just, frankly, much easier. Also note, for the purposes of this study, a player's league is more important than his nationality. So, for instance, Mikkel Boedker is an OHLer, not a Dane; Nino Niedrreiter is a WHLer, not Swiss etc. etc.

For the full write-up, reasoning, you can check out my sporadically-updated blog http://opeecheedreams.blogspot.ca/20...rafts-are.html

01. FLA: Sam Bennett
02. BUF: Sam Reinhart
03. EDM: Aaron Ekblad
04. CGY: Michael Dal Colle
05. NYI: Leon Draisaitl
06. VAN: Jake Virtanen
07. CAR: Nick Ritchie
08. TOR: William Nylander
09. WPG: Haydn Fleury
10. ANA: Brendan Perlini
11. NAS: Jared McCann
12. PHX: Nikolaj Ehlers
13. WAS: Kevin Fiala
14. DAL: Robbie Fabbri
15. DET: Alex Tuch
16. CBJ: Julius Honka
17. PHI: Dylan Larkin
18. MIN: Kasperi Kapanen
19. TBL: Ivan Barbashev
20. SJS: Travis Sanheim
21. STL: Sonny Milano
22. PIT: Josh Ho-Sang
23. COL: Roland McKeown
24. ANA: Adrian Kempe
25. BOS: Brendan Lemieux
26. MTL: Jack Dougherty
27. CHI: Nick Schmaltz
28. TBL: Connor Bleackley
29. LAK: Nikita Scherbak
30. NJD: Anthony DeAngelo

Dan O'Toole: "So if I have this right, only acceptable goal celebration in NHL is to put hands at your sides and then feel shame."
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06-25-2014, 12:06 PM
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I don't think the Sharks will draft a D this year. They have a few in the system that could be good with others that are developing. They are very thin on forwards though.

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06-25-2014, 06:19 PM
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Perlini and Kempe would make up for a dream draft in my books.

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06-25-2014, 08:15 PM
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I would be 100% shocked if the preds were to pass on Ehlers for McCann.

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06-25-2014, 09:54 PM
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Originally Posted by GeauxPreds View Post
I would be 100% shocked if the preds were to pass on Ehlers for McCann.
Like I said, I'm going strictly off probability and pass trends here, so for the sake of this exercise, Nashville has never drafted a 1st rounder out of the QMJHL since the lock-out.

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