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Old
06-27-2014, 04:53 PM
  #1
West
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Draft List generated by Stats

Sorry very longÖ

Introduction: Long time lurker on these boards who is resurfacing. Iím re-starting an old project of mine that is attempting to generate a good draft list based solely on stats/details available during a players draft year. This project has been on the shelf for almost 4 years (kids) but Iím dusting it off and looking at it again. Currently it focuses on CHL skaters only but by the end of the summer it should include USHL players and goalies in a few months.

How serious am I about this? Pretty serious between 2007 and 2011 I had 4 meeting with NHL GMís or head scouts (sadly no takers) and probably blew a couple hundred dollars on postage hoping to eventually land some sort of job (IT professional for 15 years now).

Right now Iím a little over half way done rebuilding/revamping the architecture of what I use but the draft is today so what the ****. Iíve generate lists from 2003 Ė 2014 which I will be posting as I have the time again kids/work/wife/etc. Iíve run across posts of enough people on HF who appear to trying to do similar stuff and would be honestly interested in this subject that Iím going to risk the massive roasting Iím expecting to get to make some contacts.

Full disclosure: Whatís my opinion on Stats vs the Eye Test. Short story is Eye Test is invaluable and adds extra depth to any Statistical Analysis (will defend this wording shortly). Also I canít speak for what anyone else is doing but what I do has no value when it comes to developing/training/coaching players. The Eye Test is still king here, although it does provide strong opinions about when players are ready to move up to next level. Think of it like a stock picker, just because you can spot a company thatís a good buy doesnít mean you should be running it.

Why did I say ďEye Test is invaluable and adds extra depth to any Statistical AnalysisĒ. Because what I am posting is my list averaged out with Central Scoutingís list (Currently 50/50 weighting). According to my analysis my raw list outperforms CS until it hits a 70/30 weighting and even then itís close. What do I use for analysis? Trade secret for now anyone whoís really interested in subject can take the list and come up with their own opinion or look up the old CS list or actual draft results.

p.s. I hate lists with no details descriptions of player or why you think they should be ranked where they are. Iíll try and fill that in but honestly Iíve only seen some of these players once if that and I donít like BSíing so take details player details I add with a grain of salt.

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06-27-2014, 04:54 PM
  #2
West
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2014 Draft: From my list the top three are so close that I’d drop from 1st to 3rd for pretty much any pick in the top 60. It reminds me of 2006 draft that way.

Also I really like Connor Bleackley but don’t think he’s at the Mike Richards or Ryan O’Reilly level but wouldn’t be surprised if he went as early as 12th. The players I have listed 15th-17th are good bets to fall through to the 2nd round.

My gut says Christian Dvorak is miss even after looking at the data and wouldn’t touch him before 4th round where CSS and I’m guessing most lists have him.

1 MICHAEL DAL COLLE OSHAWA - 71
2 AARON EKBLAD BARRIE - 70
3 SAM REINHART KOOTENAY - 70
4 SAM BENNETT KINGSTON - 63
5 LEON DRAISAITL PRINCE ALBERT - 56
6 HAYDN FLEURY RED DEER - 50
7 JAKE VIRTANEN CALGARY - 45
8 NIKOLAY GOLDOBIN SARNIA - 44
9 JOSH HO-SANG WINDSOR - 41
10 NICK RITCHIE PETERBOROUGH - 40
11 NIKOLAJ EHLERS HALIFAX - 39
12 JARED MCCANN SAULT STE. MARIE - 39
13 BRENDAN PERLINI NIAGARA - 38
14 NIKITA SCHERBAK SASKATOON - 36
15 JULIUS HONKA SWIFT CURRENT - 35
16 ANTHONY DEANGELO SARNIA - 34
17 BRAYDEN POINT MOOSE JAW - 33
18 CONNER BLEACKLEY RED DEER - 33
19 IVAN BARBASHEV MONCTON - 32
20 CHRISTIAN DVORAK LONDON - 31
21 BRYCEN MARTIN SWIFT CURRENT - 30
22 ROBBY FABBRI GUELPH - 28
23 NICK MAGYAR KITCHENER - 28
24 FRANCIS PERRON ROUYN-NORANDA - 28
25 ROLAND MCKEOWN KINGSTON - 28
26 VACLAV KARABACEK GATINEAU - 27
27 ERIC CORNEL PETERBOROUGH - 27
28 RYAN MACINNIS KITCHENER - 27
29 CHASE DE LEO PORTLAND - 26
30 HUNTER SMITH OSHAWA - 25
31 JUSTIN KIRKLAND KELOWNA - 25
32 JAYCE HAWRYLUK BRANDON - 25
33 JOHN QUENNEVILLE BRANDON - 24
34 TRAVIS SANHEIM CALGARY - 24
35 JAEDON DESCHENEAU KOOTENAY - 24
36 LUKE PHILP KOOTENAY - 23
37 BRENDAN LEMIEUX BARRIE - 23
38 MATT MISTELE PLYMOUTH - 23
39 COLBY CAVE SWIFT CURRENT - 22
40 BRETT POLLOCK EDMONTON - 22
41 JULIEN PELLETIER CAPE BRETON - 22
42 BLAKE SIEBENALER NIAGARA - 22
43 BEN THOMAS CALGARY - 22
44 REID GARDINER PRINCE ALBERT - 21
45 DANIEL AUDETTE SHERBROOKE - 21
46 MATT MURPHY HALIFAX - 21
47 JULIEN NANTEL ROUYN-NORANDA - 21
48 AARON IRVING EDMONTON - 21
49 CONNOR CHATHAM PLYMOUTH - 20
50 KYLE JENKINS SAULT STE. MARIE - 20
51 SPENCER WATSON KINGSTON - 20
52 ALEXANDRE GOULET CHARLOTTETOWN - 20
53 KYLE WOOD NORTH BAY - 20
54 RYAN REHILL KAMLOOPS - 20
55 ALEXIS VANIER BAIE-COMEAU - 20
56 DYSIN MAYO EDMONTON - 20
57 JOSH STERK OSHAWA - 19
58 MICHAEL BUNTING SAULT STE. MARIE - 19
59 RINAT VALIEV KOOTENAY - 19
60 TYSON BAILLIE KELOWNA - 19


Last edited by West: 06-29-2014 at 06:38 PM.
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Old
06-27-2014, 04:55 PM
  #3
West
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Draft 2013: I didn’t generate this until recently so commenting too much on it is armchair quarterbacking in my mind. I think I can honestly say Eric Roy at 15 would have set off alarm bells at the time and to a lesser extent Shea Theodre and Hunter Shinkaruk. I also remember being a bit of a Horvat and Zhadorov fan for this draft and am honestly surprised how low they are.

1 NATHAN MACKINNON HALIFAX - 71
2 SEAN MONAHAN OTTAWA - 54
3 ANTHONY MANTHA VAL-D'OR - 48
4 SETH JONES PORTLAND - 48
5 KERBY RYCHEL WINDSOR - 47
6 JONATHAN DROUIN HALIFAX - 46
7 SHEA THEODORE SEATTLE - 43
8 HUNTER SHINKARUK MEDICINE HAT - 43
9 DARNELL NURSE SAULT STE. MARIE - 42
10 ADAM ERNE QUEBEC - 41
11 RYAN PULOCK BRANDON - 41
12 WILLIAM CARRIER CAPE BRETON - 39
13 VALENTIN ZYKOV BAIE-COMEAU - 39
14 MIRCO MUELLER EVERETT - 38
15 ERIC ROY BRANDON - 38
16 FREDERIK GAUTHIER RIMOUSKI - 38
17 CHRIS BIGRAS OWEN SOUND - 37
18 MAX DOMI LONDON - 36
19 JASON DICKINSON GUELPH - 35
20 EMILE POIRIER GATINEAU - 35
21 CURTIS LAZAR EDMONTON - 35
22 BO HORVAT LONDON - 34
23 MORGAN KLIMCHUK REGINA - 34
24 ZACH NASTASIUK OWEN SOUND - 33
25 LAURENT DAUPHIN CHICOUTIMI - 33
26 NIKITA ZADOROV LONDON - 33
27 JOSH MORRISSEY PRINCE ALBERT - 32
28 RYAN HARTMAN PLYMOUTH - 30
29 MARC-OLIVIER ROY BLAINVILLE-BOISBRIAND - 28
30 DILLON HEATHERINGTON SWIFT CURRENT - 28
31 MADISON BOWEY KELOWNA - 28
32 NICOLAS PETAN PORTLAND - 27
33 ANTHONY DUCLAIR QUEBEC - 27
34 NICHOLAS BAPTISTE SUDBURY - 25
35 SAMUEL MORIN RIMOUSKI - 25
36 JUSTIN BAILEY KITCHENER - 25
37 JORDAN SUBBAN BELLEVILLE - 24
38 JIMMY LODGE SAGINAW - 24
39 RYAN KUJAWINSKI KINGSTON - 24
40 CARTER VERHAEGHE NIAGARA - 23
41 JONATHAN DIABY VICTORIAVILLE - 22
42 OLIVER BJORKSTRAND PORTLAND - 21
43 NICK SORENSEN QUEBEC - 21
44 JC LIPON KAMLOOPS - 21
45 JACKSON HOUCK VANCOUVER - 21
46 CONNOR RANKIN TRI-CITY - 20
47 MYLES BELL KELOWNA - 20
48 NIKOLAS BROUILLARD DRUMMONDVILLE - 20
49 NICK MOUTREY SAGINAW - 19
50 CURTIS VALK MEDICINE HAT - 19
51 COLBY CAVE SWIFT CURRENT - 17
52 BEN HARPUR GUELPH - 17
53 JARED HAUF SEATTLE - 16
54 BRENT PEDERSEN KITCHENER - 16
55 TYLER LEWINGTON MEDICINE HAT - 16
56 VINCENT DUNN VAL-D'OR - 16
57 CAMERON BRACE OWEN SOUND - 16
58 YAN PAVEL LAPLANTE P.E.I. - 15
59 ZACH HALL BARRIE - 15
60 JAN KOSTALEK RIMOUSKI - 15

Going out to watch the draft so replies will be slow. Thanks


Last edited by West: 06-29-2014 at 06:47 PM.
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Old
06-27-2014, 05:19 PM
  #4
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Seems good, only to make it a bit more easy to have degrees of separation use advanced stas.

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06-27-2014, 06:25 PM
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Interesting stuff, it seems like you do a similar approach to me:

http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh...219&highlight=

2014 draft looks a bit different, but there were some big similarities for 2013 (guys like Mantha, Roy, Petan).

Wondering how you guy Lemieux up that high. All stats indicate that he is a mid-round guy at best and is only ranked so high in most mocks because of his style of game and pedigree.

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Old
06-29-2014, 06:29 PM
  #6
West
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Wasn't a Mock draft but had 17 of the 20 CHL players selected in the first round in my top 20 (22,34,35 for the other 3). So pretty happy about that.

I'll update the players with values as requested so anyone can get a good feel for separation/levels.

Also I'll keep adding lists as time permitts.

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06-30-2014, 11:34 AM
  #7
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2012: Grigorenko gets top spot more or less because he was healthy all season. Galchenyuk, Yakupov and Murray get next 3 based on what they did the season before. Morgan Reilly makes a pretty noticeable jump based on the start of the season but the small sample size keeps him lower than he should be.

Considering the number of injuries of top players I'm actually pretty happy with this list but recognize the need to clean up my player injury exception handling. This will be the perfect season to do it on but a little early to run serious data crunching against this draft in my opinion.

1 Mikhail Grigorenko Quebec - 54
2 Alex Galchenyuk Sarnia - 50
3 Nail Yakupov Sarnia - 49
4 Ryan Murray Everett - 49
5 Cody Ceci Ottawa - 47
6 Radek Faksa Kitchener - 47
7 Mathew Dumba Red Deer - 46
8 Brendan Gaunce Belleville - 45
9 Olli Maatta London - 43
10 Morgan Rielly Moose Jaw - 37
11 Griffin Reinhart Edmonton - 33
12 Dylan Blujus Brampton - 32
13 Matt Finn Guelph - 31
14 Slater Koekkoek Peterborough - 31
15 Colton Sissons Kelowna - 28
16 Tanner Pearson Barrie - 27
17 Derrick Pouliot Portland - 27
18 Scott Laughton Oshawa - 24
19 Nick Ebert Windsor - 24
20 Gemel Smith Owen Sound - 23
21 Dalton Thrower Saskatoon - 23
22 Damon Severson Kelowna - 23
23 Scott Kosmachuk Guelph - 22
24 Charles Hudon Chicoutimi - 22
25 Brady Vail Windsor - 22
26 Mike Winther Prince Albert - 22
27 Tim Bozon Kamloops - 22
28 Daniil Zharkov Belleville - 21
29 Jesse Graham Niagara - 20
30 Jarrod Maidens Owen Sound - 20
31 Martin Frk Halifax - 20
32 Andreas Athanasiou London - 19
33 Trevor Carrick Mississauga St. Michael's - 19
34 Lukas Sutter Saskatoon - 19
35 Ryan Culkin Quebec - 18
36 Ben Johnson Windsor - 17
37 Dane Fox Erie - 17
38 Brett Kulak Vancouver - 17
39 James Melindy Moncton - 16
40 Jaynen Rissling Calgary - 16
41 Adam Pelech Erie - 16
42 Chandler Stephenson Regina - 16
43 Francis Beauvillier Rimouski - 16
44 Troy Bourke Prince George - 15
45 Anton Zlobin Shawinigan - 15
46 Coda Gordon Swift Current - 15
47 Marcus McIvor Brampton - 15
48 Christophe Lalancette Acadie-Bathurst - 14
49 Travis Brown Moose Jaw - 14
50 Philip Tot Lethbridge - 14
51 Jordan Martinook Vancouver - 14
52 Chris Tierney London - 14
53 Michael Clarke Windsor - 14
54 Josh Anderson London - 14
55 Artur Gavrus Owen Sound - 14
56 Tom Wilson Plymouth - 13
57 Brock McGinn Guelph - 13
58 Mathew Campagna Sudbury - 12
59 Graham Black Swift Current - 12
60 Brendan Leipsic Portland - 12

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06-30-2014, 11:44 AM
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I'm enjoying these analyses - very interesting stuff.

I know that many analytics-based draft lists (such as Corey's at Hockey Prospectus) have a low opinion of goaltenders, since their variability at draft age is significantly higher than that for forwards and defenseman. Is that your experience as well?

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06-30-2014, 05:59 PM
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It's an interesting concept and perhaps it's a decent guide, but the lack of Tomas Hertl in the top 60 for 2012 makes me question it. Same with Olli Maatta.

EDIT: I'm dumb.


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06-30-2014, 06:07 PM
  #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CanadienShark View Post
It's an interesting concept and perhaps it's a decent guide, but the lack of Tomas Hertl in the top 60 for 2012 makes me question it. Same with Olli Maatta.
Hertl didn't play in the CHL. Maatta, however, did. And he's on the list at #9

Quote:
Originally Posted by West View Post
[...] Currently it focuses on CHL skaters only but by the end of the summer it should include USHL players and goalies in a few months. [...]

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06-30-2014, 06:09 PM
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I want the formula!

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06-30-2014, 09:46 PM
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Could you apply it to past drafts and see how it would have worked?

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07-01-2014, 05:09 AM
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Wilch
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Not asking for a full disclosure on the formula, but can you give us a general thought or insight on how you formed your algorithms?

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07-03-2014, 02:03 PM
  #14
West
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chalupa Batman View Post
I'm enjoying these analyses - very interesting stuff.

I know that many analytics-based draft lists (such as Corey's at Hockey Prospectus) have a low opinion of goaltenders, since their variability at draft age is significantly higher than that for forwards and defenseman. Is that your experience as well?
That's hard to answer right now as I'm just in the middle of adding this. I think the current analysis of goalies in general has a lot of issues that need to be cleaned up. Hopefully I'll be adding something moderately interesting but honestly I'm disappointed more often than I'm pleasantly surprised.

As a general rule the less sure I am of something the lower they go on my list (and I'd assume lists in general) so I think that's a lot of what people are seeing in their analysis.

As pretty much everyone quotes Goalies take much longer to develop so that will eat into everyone's weighting of them also. Personal I'm trying to develop a Draft lists for NHL teams which means I stop actively considering data on players after they hit UFA.

Pretty shortly (this month) I'll be updating my list with this years NHL data and be adding goalies to it for the first time. It's basically my list of top X players from certain drafts which will include goalies for the first time.

Sorry for the very long answer that basically say's nothing yet. To make a very long story shorter if someone was to redo a perfect draft on average I would expect 1 or 2 goalies to be in the Top 10. I expect to find the variance in first string goalies is very much like the difference is top string forwards (excluding Crosby) there is only a 22pt spread in the difference between 2nd and 31st scorer.

My gut feeling is that I might decide that the variance for goalies is 2 to 3 times that top scoring players.

My rant on goalie analysis in general. I've heard of analysis done on goalies that compares the best rated goalies verses the worst. In my opinion this is fundamentally flawed. Almost all athletic sports are upper bound (believe this is common term). That is to say there is a realistic upper limit and pro athletes can do and tend to group very tightly around this upper limit. Any of these athletes could put in a performance several standard deviations below average any time they wanted (or injury or just miss judging of talent). Given this I think measuring against the average is the far more accurate way to measure goalie performance.

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07-04-2014, 09:28 AM
  #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hasbro View Post
Could you apply it to past drafts and see how it would have worked?
I'll eventually post all my drafts from Current to 2003 and update as anything particularly interesting is added (USHL, Goalies, etc)

Draft 2011: This is the last year before QMJ Game Summaries change format so analysis of these Q players is a little off (high) as I am making assumptions about what players did the previous year. I'd be thrilled to redo these if anyone can point game summary sheets from before 2010 that contain at least the following level of detail (online or file since I'm wishing)...

http://theqmjhl.ca/schedule/scoresheet/game/64672

RYAN NUGENT-HOPKINS RED DEER - 74
SEAN COUTURIER DRUMMONDVILLE - 71
JONATHAN HUBERDEAU SAINT JOHN - 68
DOUGIE HAMILTON NIAGARA - 62
GABRIEL LANDESKOG KITCHENER - 58
RYAN STROME NIAGARA - 54
ZACK PHILLIPS SAINT JOHN - 54
RYAN MURPHY KITCHENER - 54
VLADISLAV NAMESTNIKOV LONDON - 51
MARK SCHEIFELE BARRIE - 51
BOONE JENNER OSHAWA - 50
MARK MCNEILL PRINCE ALBERT - 48
NATHAN BEAULIEU SAINT JOHN - 45
PHILLIP DANAULT VICTORIAVILLE - 45
SVEN BARTSCHI PORTLAND - 45
DAVID MUSIL VANCOUVER - 43
MATT PUEMPEL PETERBOROUGH - 42
DUNCAN SIEMENS SASKATOON - 41
TY RATTIE PORTLAND - 40
VINCENT TROCHECK SAGINAW - 39
BRANDON SAAD SAGINAW - 39
LOGAN SHAW CAPE BRETON - 37
JOSEPH MORROW PORTLAND - 35
ALEXANDER KHOKHLACHEV WINDSOR - 35
XAVIER OUELLET MONTREAL - 34
TOMAS JURCO SAINT JOHN - 33
DANIEL CATENACCI SAULT STE. MARIE - 32
NICKLAS JENSEN OSHAWA - 31
JOEL EDMUNDSON MOOSE JAW - 30
STEFAN NOESEN PLYMOUTH - 29
SHANE PRINCE OTTAWA - 28
NICK COUSINS SAULT STE. MARIE - 27
MYLES BELL REGINA - 26
ADAM LOWRY SWIFT CURRENT - 26
RICKARD RAKELL PLYMOUTH - 25
OLIVIER ARCHAMBAULT VAL-D'OR - 25
MICHAEL ST. CROIX EDMONTON - 25
LUCAS LESSIO OSHAWA - 24
BRETT RITCHIE SARNIA - 24
MAXIMILIEN LE SIEUR SHAWINIGAN - 24
BARCLAY GOODROW BRAMPTON - 24
STUART PERCY Mississauga St. Michaels - 23
COLIN JACOBS SEATTLE - 22
MARCEL NOEBELS SEATTLE - 22
REECE SCARLETT SWIFT CURRENT - 22
LUKE LOCKHART SEATTLE - 21
GARRETT MEURS PLYMOUTH - 21
ZACHARY YUEN TRI-CITY - 20
TOBIAS RIEDER KITCHENER - 20
RYAN TESINK SAINT JOHN - 18
RYAN SPROUL SAULT STE. MARIE - 18
ZACH FRANKO KELOWNA - 18
KEEGAN LOWE EDMONTON - 18
FRANK CORRADO SUDBURY - 18
JUSTIN SEFTON SUDBURY - 17
ALEX ROACH CALGARY - 17
SCOTT HARRINGTON LONDON - 17
COLIN SMITH KAMLOOPS - 16
GABRIEL BOURRET SAINT JOHN - 16
JOSEPH CRAMAROSSA Mississauga St. Michaels - 16

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07-06-2014, 10:15 PM
  #16
West
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wilch View Post
Not asking for a full disclosure on the formula, but can you give us a general thought or insight on how you formed your algorithms?
Given this question a lot of thought as I worked very hard for a long time on this and don't want to just post it up as freeware. Here's what I can say...

Corsic Fenwick: To be honest a big part of this is because the data set I look at has pretty poor detail for shots. However even looking at the NHL detailed game summaries I don't believe this is the way to go.

On a gut level even though I only played/play at a very low level I've had to many Goalies who just want you to keep players to the outside and save lots of long shots, I've been a goalie who hated the long shots and was far more comfortable challenging the shooter when he's in close (usually far fewer shots). I've been on both sides of shots where the shooter knows it's going in and where the shooter knows there is no chance of the puck going in. Long story short all shots/shooters are not created equal nor are all defenses. My personal opinion measuring shots starts to fall apart if you drill down lower than a team by team level.

From a pure numbers point of view I completely get loving the idea of having a sample size that's 10 times bigger but for the above reasons and some actual numbers based ideas I haven't and probably never will convert to above methods.

Plus minus: I'm more or less on side that it's a pretty iffy stat. That being said I find it's valuable to know who was on the ice for any given goal. It takes context and lots of it but you can do some pretty interesting stuff looking at this data. This lack of this information in QMJ before 2011 is the reason I stop tracking the Q players.

Statistics: There are lies **** lies and statistics. I haven't run a T-test or what anyone but me would recognize as a linear regression in years. Like anyone else I started with this but it closed off way to many avenues of research, you just hit a level where you say I know this is right and integrate it.

How would I justify this to my Stats Prof? The data generated by any list is just to random the data your comparing to is way to random with sample sizes that are just to small. The theory could be perfect but you can still fail the test. Long story short I've more or less ditched/modified anything that was in my Stats textbooks.

Everybody is Smart: If you see something that your analysis doesn't explain happening over and over again it's not because the GMs, Coaches, Scouts, Players are stupid (maybe to cautious but not stupid). Look closer there is usually a good reason for it, don't say it's just sample size don't say it's luck and don't think it's because whoever doesn't know what there doing. Once you figure out what's happening integrate it into your analysis.

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07-07-2014, 04:53 PM
  #17
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Cutting out the commentary to get the rest of the lists out quicker. Probably all by end of day tomorrow.

Draft 2010

Taylor Hall Windsor - 82
Tyler Seguin Plymouth - 78
Cam Fowler Windsor - 52
Ryan Johansen Portland - 52
Ryan Martindale Ottawa - 47
Jeff Skinner Kitchener - 45
Emerson Etem Medicine Hat - 44
Nino Niederreiter Portland - 41
Steven Shipley Owen Sound - 41
Tyler Toffoli Ottawa - 40
John McFarland Sudbury - 37
Brett Connolly Prince George - 37
Alexander Burmistrov Barrie - 35
Quinton Howden Moose Jaw - 35
Erik Gudbranson Kingston - 34
Jordan Weal Regina - 34
Ryan Spooner Peterborough - 34
Greg McKegg Erie - 32
Stephen Silas Belleville - 32
Austin Watson Windsor - 32
Mark Pysyk Edmonton - 31
Freddie Hamilton Niagara - 31
Devante Smith-Pelly Mississauga St. Michael's - 30
Dylan McIlrath Moose Jaw - 30
Ivan Telegin Saginaw - 29
Justin Shugg Windsor - 28
Brad Ross Portland - 28
Sam Carrick Brampton - 26
Brett Bulmer Kelowna - 26
Brandon Davidson Regina - 26
Brandon Archibald Sault Ste. Marie - 26
Alex Petrovic Red Deer - 25
Brooks Macek Tri-City - 25
Max Reinhart Kootenay - 25
Andrew Yogan Erie - 24
Kevin Sundher Chilliwack - 24
Troy Rutkowski Portland - 24
Craig Cunningham Vancouver - 24
Philip Lane Brampton - 23
Brock Beukeboom Sault Ste. Marie - 23
Matt MacKenzie Calgary - 22
Jared Knight London - 22
Austin Madaisky Kamloops - 22
Christian Thomas Oshawa - 22
Brendan Ranford Kamloops - 21
Radko Gudas Everett - 20
Joey Leach Kootenay - 20
Josh Nicholls Saskatoon - 19
Brandon Herrod Prince Albert - 19
Taylor Aronson Portland - 19
Geoffrey Schemitsch Owen Sound - 18
Austin Levi Plymouth - 18
Alex Theriau Everett - 18
Justin Feser Tri-City - 18
Curtis Hamilton Saskatoon - 18
Joe Rogalski Sarnia - 17
Jordan Messier Tri-City - 17
Brendan Gallagher Vancouver - 17
Justin Dowling Swift Current - 17
Kendall McFaull Moose Jaw - 16

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07-07-2014, 04:54 PM
  #18
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Draft 2009

John Tavares OSHAWA - 91
Matt Duchene BRAMPTON - 67
Nazem Kadri LONDON - 62
Brayden Schenn BRANDON - 61
Evander Kane VANCOUVER - 59
Jared Cowen SPOKANE - 59
Zack Kassian PETERBOROUGH - 57
Ryan Ellis WINDSOR - 47
Ryan O'Reilly ERIE - 39
Calvin De Haan OSHAWA - 39
Ethan Werek KINGSTON - 38
Peter Holland GUELPH - 35
Alex Hutchings BARRIE - 34
Carter Ashton LETHBRIDGE - 34
Scott Glennie BRANDON - 32
Stefan Elliott SASKATOON - 31
Matt Clark BRAMPTON - 30
Landon Ferraro RED DEER - 28
Taylor Beck GUELPH - 28
Tyson Barrie KELOWNA - 23
Jesse Blacker WINDSOR - 20
Jordan Szwarz SAGINAW - 20
DARREN ARCHIBALD BARRIE - 19
Michael Latta GUELPH - 19
Ryan Button PRINCE ALBERT - 19
Brayden McNabb KOOTENAY - 18
Garrett Wilson OWEN SOUND - 18
Taylor Doherty KINGSTON - 18
Cody Eakin SWIFT CURRENT - 17
PHIL VARONE LONDON - 17
Ryan Howse CHILLIWACK - 17
Kris Foucault CALGARY - 16
Casey Cizikas MISSISSAUGA ST. MICHAEL'S - 15
Matthew Tipoff BELLEVILLE - 14
Levko Koper SPOKANE - 14
Tomas Vincour EDMONTON - 14
Linden Vey MEDICINE HAT - 14
Jimmy Bubnick KAMLOOPS - 12
Cass Mappin RED DEER - 12
Jordan MAYER MISSISSAUGA ST. MICHAEL'S - 12
BRETT FLEMMING MISSISSAUGA ST. MICHAEL'S - 12
Ben Chiarot GUELPH - 11
TYLER RANDELL KITCHENER - 11
BEAU SCHMITZ PLYMOUTH - 10
BRANDON KOZUN CALGARY - 10
Marcus Foligno SUDBURY - 10
DANIEL MAGGIO SUDBURY - 10
COLLIN BOWMAN KELOWNA - 9
Byron Froese EVERETT - 9
Michael FINE SAULT STE. MARIE - 9
Brodie Melnychuk BRANDON - 9
ANDREJ KUDRNA VANCOUVER - 9
Stepan Novotny KELOWNA - 9
Burke Gallimore SASKATOON - 9
LUKE JUDSON BELLEVILLE - 9
TOMMI KIVISTO RED DEER - 8
TYLER HOSTETTER ERIE - 8
KYLE CLIFFORD BARRIE - 8
KELLAN TOCHKIN EVERETT - 8
Brennan Yadlowski LETHBRIDGE - 8

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07-07-2014, 04:54 PM
  #19
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Draft 2008

Steven Stamkos Sarnia - 84
Zach Bogosian Peterborough - 79
Drew Doughty Guelph - 76
Kyle Beach Everett - 68
Alex Pietrangelo Niagara - 67
Cody Hodgson Brampton - 56
Luke Schenn Kelowna - 55
Tyler Myers Kelowna - 54
Zach Boychuk Lethbridge - 50
Joshua Bailey Windsor - 46
Mikkel Boedker Kitchener - 4
Luca Sbisa Lethbridge - 44
Michael Del Zotto Oshawa - 42
Jordan Eberle Regina - 41
Tyler Ennis Medicine Hat - 41
Greg Nemisz Windsor - 41
Matt Calvert Brandon - 39
Colten Teubert Regina - 39
Zack Smith Swift Current - 37
Colin Long Kelowna - 35
Colby Robak Brandon - 32
Kruise Reddick Tri-City - 31
Mitch Wahl Spokane - 31
Nathan Moon Kingston - 31
Tyler Cuma Ottawa - 31
Michael Stone Calgary - 30
Geordie Wudrick Swift Current - 29
Dale Weise Swift Current - 28
Shawn Lalonde Belleville - 28
Jamie Arniel Sarnia - 28
Jyri Niemi Saskatoon - 27
Adam Henrique Windsor - 27
Jared Staal Sudbury - 26
Anthony Nigro Guelph - 25
Cameron Gaunce Mississauga-St Michael's - 24
Brandon McMillan kelowna - 24
Luke Pither Guelph - 23
James Wright Vancouver - 22
James Livingston Sault Ste Marie - 22
Eric O'Dell Sudbury - 20
Josh Brittain Kingston - 19
Brett Theberge Peterborough - 19
Eric Mestery Tri-City - 18
Matt Delahey Regina - 18
Lance Bouma Vancouver - 18
Travis Toomey Saskatoon - 18
Ian Schultz Calgary - 17
Julien Demers Ottawa - 17
Zach Harnden Peterborough - 16
Brent Raedeke Edmonton - 16
Mike Reddington Spokane - 16
Chad Suer Moose Jaw - 15
Wacey Hamilton Medicine Hat - 14
Michael D'Orazio Owen Sound - 14
Harry Young Windsor - 12
T.J Brodie Saginaw - 12
Teigan Zahn Saskatoon - 11
Jordan Skellett Erie - 9
Stephen Johnston Belleville - 9
Neal Prokop Moose Jaw - 8

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07-07-2014, 04:59 PM
  #20
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Draft 2007

Patrick kane london - 72
karl alzner calgary - 70
sam gagner london - 62
logan couture ottawa - 62
zach hamill everett - 60
keaton ellerby kamloops - 56
brandon sutter red deer - 52
brett maclean oshawa - 50
thomas hickey seattle - 48
dana tyrell prince george - 46
spencer machacek vancouver - 45
oscar moller chilliwack - 44
jonathon blum vancouver - 43
mitch fadden lethbridge - 42
dustin jeffrey sault ste. Marie - 39
stefan legein mississauga - 39
michal repik vancouver - 38
nick ross regina - 37
drayson bowman spokane - 36
mickey renaud windsor - 35
nick spaling kitchener - 35
justin mccrae saskatoon - 35
colton gillies saskatoon - 33
dale mitchell oshawa - 33
jordan knackstedt moose jaw - 33
alex plante calgary - 33
taylor ellington everett - 33
bryan cameron belleville - 31
matt halischuk kitchener - 30
robert bortuzzo kitchener - 29
josh kidd erie - 28
yannick weber kitchener - 28
zack torquato erie - 27
brett sonne calgary - 27
mark katic sarnia - 27
andrew clark brandon - 27
akim aliu sudbury - 26
juraj valach tri-city - 26
justin falk spokane - 26
nick palmieri erie - 25
dan kelly kitchener - 23
matt lahey ottawa - 22
josh godfrey sault ste. Marie - 21
dwight king lethbridge - 21
paul postma swift current - 20
p.k. Subban belleville - 20
patrik lusnak sudbury - 19
radek meidl seattle - 19
ondrej roman spokane - 19
jan eberle seattle - 19
eric doyle swift current - 19
john negrin kootenay - 18
colton sceviour portland - 18
chris terry plymouth - 18
eric tangradi belleville - 17
arron alphonso ottawa - 17
brent regner vancouver - 16
keith aulie brandon - 15
jared gomes sarnia - 14
brett leffler regina - 13

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07-07-2014, 04:59 PM
  #21
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Draft 2006

JORDAN STAAL PETERBOROUGH - 77
BRYAN LITTLE BARRIE - 75
PETER MUELLER EVERETT - 64
NICK FOLIGNO SUDBURY - 52
CHRIS STEWART KINGSTON - 52
BOBBY SANGUINETTI OWEN SOUND - 51
CORY EMMERTON KINGSTON - 47
TY WISHART PRINCE GEORGE - 42
BEN SHUTRON KINGSTON - 37
RYAN WHITE CALGARY - 37
CODEY BURKI BRANDON - 37
MIKE WEBER WINDSOR - 36
ONDREJ FIALA EVERETT - 33
BEN MAXWELL KOOTENAY - 31
BOBBY HUGHES KINGSTON - 31
CAL CLUTTERBUCK OSHAWA - 30
JAMIE MCGINN OTTAWA - 29
HARRISON REED SARNIA - 29
MICHAEL GRABNER SPOKANE - 29
JOHN DE GRAY BRAMPTON - 27
RILEY HOLZAPFEL MOOSE JAW - 27
OSKAR OSALA MISSISSAUGA - 27
BRADY CALLA EVERETT - 27
MATT CORRENTE SAGINAW - 27
JOHN HUGHES BELLEVILLE - 26
BUD HOLLOWAY SEATTLE - 25
MATT BELESKEY BELLEVILLE - 24
JAMES DELORY OSHAWA - 24
LUKE LYNES BRAMPTON - 24
THEO PECKHAM OWEN SOUND - 22
BEN WRIGHT LETHBRIDGE - 22
ANDREW FOURNIER PLYMOUTH - 21
MILAN LUCIC VANCOUVER - 21
MICHAEL CARUSO GUELPH - 21
JOHN ARMSTRONG PLYMOUTH - 21
LOGAN PYETT REGINA - 20
JORDAN BENDFELD MEDICINE HAT - 19
CHAD GREENAN KOOTENAY - 19
MATTHEW CLINE RED DEER - 18
DEREK DORSETT MEDICINE HAT - 18
GRAHAM POTUER EVERETT - 18
SHAWN MATTHIAS BELLEVILLE - 18
AARON SNOW BRAMPTON - 18
SASHA GOLIN PORTLAND - 15
FRAZER MCLAREN PORTLAND - 15
LUKAS BOHUNICKY KOOTENAY - 15
VICTOR BARTLEY KAMLOOPS - 14
KEEGAN DANSEREAU CALGARY - 14
MICHAL KLEJNA BRAMPTON - 14
ADAM PERRY LONDON - 13
LEVI NELSON SWIFT CURRENT - 12
CRAIG SCHIRA REGINA - 12
BRENNEN WRAY MOOSE JAW - 11
MATT DIAS SUDBURY - 11
JUSTIN BERNHARDT REGINA - 10
CAMERON CEPEK PORTLAND - 10
DEVIN DIDIOMETE SUDBURY - 9
MATT HALISCHUK TORONTO ST. MICHAEL'S - 9
KEATON TURKIEWICZ WINDSOR - 9
JUSTIN AZEVEDO KITCHENER - 9

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07-08-2014, 11:42 AM
  #22
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Draft 2005

1 BOBBY RYAN OWEN SOUND - 77
2 GILBERT BRULE VANCOUVER - 69
3 BENOIT POULIOT SUDBURY - 66
4 KENNDAL MCARDLE MOOSE JAW - 49
5 MARC STAAL SUDBURY - 48
6 RYAN O'MARRA ERIE - 48
7 MICHAEL SAUER PORTLAND - 43
8 SCOTT JACKSON SEATTLE - 40
9 DEVIN SETOGUCHI SASKATOON - 40
10 JAMES NEAL PLYMOUTH - 39
11 RYAN PARENT GUELPH - 39
12 CHRIS DURAND SEATTLE - 38
13 BRENDAN MIKKELSON PORTLAND - 35
14 DANIEL RYDER PETERBOROUGH - 34
15 KRIS RUSSELL MEDICINE HAT - 33
16 RYAN WILSON TORONTO ST. MIKES - 32
17 MICHAEL BLUNDEN ERIE - 32
18 MATT LASHOFF KITCHENER - 31
19 DANNY SYVRET LONDON - 31
20 RAYMOND MACIAS KAMLOOPS - 29
21 JAKUB KINDL KITCHENER - 29
22 STEVE DOWNIE WINDSOR - 28
23 DAN COLLINS PLYMOUTH - 27
24 MATT D'AGOSTINI GUELPH - 26
25 ADAM MCQUAID SUDBURY - 26
26 PATRICK MCNEILL SAGINAW - 26
27 DUSTIN KOHN CALGARY - 26
28 CODY BASS MISSISSAUGA - 25
29 WACEY RABBIT SASKATOON - 24
30 CODY FRANSON VANCOUVER - 24
31 PAUL KURCEBA RED DEER - 24
32 RADEK SMOLENAK KINGSTON - 23
33 PATRICK DAVIS KITCHENER - 23
34 KYLE BAILEY PORTLAND - 23
35 JOE BARNES SASKATOON - 23
36 CAL O'REILLY WINDSOR - 21
37 MARK FRASER KITCHENER - 20
38 DEREK JOSLIN OTTAWA - 19
39 SEAN ZIMMERMAN SPOKANE - 19
40 BRODIE DUPONT CALGARY - 19
41 DALYN FLATT SASKATOON - 18
42 RICHARD CLUNE SARNIA - 18
43 JEFF MAY PRINCE ALBERT - 17
44 TOM PYATT SAGINAW - 17
45 COLTON YELLOW HORN LETHBRIDGE - 17
46 RILEY MERKLEY CALGARY - 16
47 TREVOR KOVERKO OWEN SOUND - 16
48 BRETTON STAMLER SEATTLE - 16
49 MYLES RUMSEY SWIFT CURRENT - 15
50 KALVIN SAGERT KAMLOOPS - 15
51 PHIL ORESKOVIC BRAMPTON - 14
52 MIKE GAUTHIER PRINCE ALBERT - 13
53 BOBBY BOLT KINGSTON - 12
54 JOSH BEAULIEU LONDON - 11
55 KEVIN HENDERSON KITCHENER - 11
56 J.D. WATT VANCOUVER - 10
57 MIKE DUCO KITCHENER - 10
58 MARK LOUIS BRANDON - 9
59 TROY OFUKANY KELOWNA - 9
60 BLAIR STENGLER PRINCE GEORGE - 8

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Old
07-08-2014, 11:43 AM
  #23
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Draft 2004

1 ANDREW LADD CALGARY - 72
2 CAM BARKER MEDICINE HAT - 65
3 WOJTEK WOLSKI BRAMPTON - 65
4 KYLE CHIPCHURA PRINCE ALBERT - 51
5 MIKE GREEN SASKATOON - 48
6 DAVID BOLLAND LONDON - 42
7 BORIS VALABIK KITCHENER - 41
8 BRANDON DUBINSKY PORTLAND - 37
9 VACLAV MEIDL PLYMOUTH - 37
10 JEFF SCHULTZ CALGARY - 37
11 MICHAEL FUNK PORTLAND - 35
12 BRETT CARSON CALGARY - 34
13 EVAN MCGRATH KITCHENER - 30
14 PETER TSIMIKALIS OTTAWA - 30
15 MARK FISTRIC VANCOUVER - 29
16 MAX GORDICHUK KAMLOOPS - 29
17 CLAYTON BARTHEL SEATTLE - 28
18 ERIC HUNTER PRINCE GEOGRE - 27
19 AKI SEITSONEN PRINCE ALBERT - 26
20 BLAKE COMEAU KELOWNA - 25
21 CHAD PAINCHAUD MISSISSAUGA - 25
22 MITCH MAUNU WINDSOR - 25
23 SCOTT LEHMAN TORONTO ST. MICHAEL'S - 25
24 TROY BROUWER MOOSE JAW - 25
25 RYAN CALLAHAN GUELPH - 24
26 BRYAN BICKELL OTTAWA - 24
27 DUSTIN BOYD MOOSE JAW - 24
28 JOHN LAMMERS LETHBRIDGE - 20
29 KYLE WHARTON OTTAWA - 20
30 JUSTIN KELLER KELOWNA - 19
31 LOGAN STEPHENSON TRI-CITY - 19
32 ADAM BERTI OSHAWA - 19
33 CHAD KLASSEN SPOKANE - 18
34 LIAM REDDOX PETERBOROUGH - 18
35 JEAN-MICHEL RIZK SAGINAW - 17
36 DANE BYERS PRINCE ALBERT - 17
37 CLAYTON STONER TRI-CITY - 17
38 JORDAN MORRISON PETERBOROUGH - 17
39 MIKKO KUUKKA RED DEER - 16
40 EVAN SCHAFER PRINCE ALBERT - 15
41 GINO PISELLINI PLYMOUTH - 15
42 BRYAN YOUNG PETERBOROUGH - 15
43 ANDY ROGERS CALGARY - 14
44 ASHTON ROME MOOSE JAW - 14
45 KRIS HOGG KAMLOOPS - 14
46 DAVID SCHULZ SWIFT CURRENT - 13
47 CHRIS HULIT OSHAWA - 12
48 BRET NASBY OSHAWA - 12
49 JOHN ADAMS BELLEVILLE - 10
50 NED LUKACEVIC SPOKANE - 10
51 JARED WALKER RED DEER - 9
52 KYLE DECK REGINA - 8
53 PATRICK KALETA PETERBOROUGH - 7
54 TREVOR KELL LONDON - 7
55 RYAN STEPHENSON KINGSTON - 6
56 MOISES GUTIERREZ KAMLOOPS - 6
57 PAUL MCFARLAND KITCHENER - 6
58 DAVID HALASZ OTTAWA - 5
59 IAIN MCPHEE WINDSOR - 5
60 ROB SCHREMP LONDON - 5

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07-08-2014, 11:46 AM
  #24
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Draft 2003

1 eric staal peterbourgh - 84
2 dustin brown guelph - 62
3 corey perry london - 55
4 ryan getzlaf calgary - 50
5 nathan horton oshawa - 49
6 dion phaneuf red deer - 47
7 michael richards kitchener - 47
8 eric fehr brandon - 47
9 anthony stewart kingston - 45
10 kevin klein toronto st. Michael's - 44
11 jeff carter sault ste marie - 44
12 braydon coburn portland - 43
13 patrick o'sullivan mississauga - 43
14 ryan stone brandon - 41
15 danny fritsche sarnia - 40
16 brent seabrook lethbridge - 38
17 colin fraser red deer - 37
18 jonathan filewich prince george - 34
19 kamil kreps brampton - 34
20 daniel carcillo sarnia - 32
21 corey locke ottawa - 31
22 shea weber kelowna - 31
23 kyle brodziak moose jaw - 31
24 brent burns brampton - 29
25 b.j. Crombeen barrie - 27
26 john mitchell plymouth - 27
27 clarke macarthur medicine hat - 27
28 pavel voroshnin mississauga - 26
29 jeremy colliton prince albert - 26
30 brad richardson owen sound - 26
31 stefan meyer medicine hat - 26
32 bobby chaumont sudbury - 25
33 jamie tardif peterborough - 25
34 jeremy williams swift current - 24
35 david liffiton plymouth - 24
36 shawn belle tri-city - 23
37 john vigilante plymouth - 23
38 ryan oulahen brampton - 22
39 matej trojovsky regina - 22
40 nate thompson seattle - 22
41 masi marjamaki red deer - 20
42 david svagrovsky seattle - 20
43 nigel dawes kootenay - 20
44 paul brown kamloops - 19
45 frank rediker windsor - 18
46 zack fitzgerald seattle - 16
47 bryan rodney kingston - 16
48 martin lojek brampton - 16
49 randall gelech kelowna - 15
50 mark flood peterborough - 15
51 nathan mciver toronto st. Michael's - 14
52 adam courchaine vancouver - 14
53 rick kozak brandon - 14
54 zack stortini sudbury - 13
55 aaron dawson peterborough - 13
56 kyle quincey london - 13
57 ryan donally windsor - 13
58 stuart simmons brampton - 13
59 petr jelinek moose jaw - 12
60 ryan rorabeck toronto st. Michael's - 12
61 dustin byfuglien prince george - 12

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07-11-2014, 01:18 PM
  #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chalupa Batman View Post
I'm enjoying these analyses - very interesting stuff.

I know that many analytics-based draft lists (such as Corey's at Hockey Prospectus) have a low opinion of goaltenders, since their variability at draft age is significantly higher than that for forwards and defenseman. Is that your experience as well?
Just starting my analysis of goalies my initial impressions after looking at the data set are...

1) I'll stick with my original guess that 1 or 2 goalies should be in the top 10 most years using hindsight (see 2005 and 2006 top tens below). I'll probably adjust that to an average to 1 goalie instead of my original guess of about 1.5. In reality many of these goalies are taken outside of the first round.

2) Variability at draft age is just bad analysis in my opinion. This is not to say I can do any better (yet, fingers crossed) but I find it hard to believe that 90%+ of the ground work to developing a goalie wouldn't already be done by draft age.

3) Goalies take longer to develop than forwards/defensmen so they aren't good draft picks. After looking at the data I would strongly disagree with this. After the top 2 or 3 in a draft picks the vast majority of players are better off going back to junior and breaking in at about 20-21 IMO. Looking at the data I'd say goalies that will succeed in NHL are at most a year behind that.

Taking a subset of the best goalies from the 2003-2008 drafts Goalies who break into the league in their early 20's best years are better than Goalies who take an extra 2-3 years in AHL. This probably has more to do with only the best Goalies do this more than the idea that it's a better development plan. That being said I can't see any development issues looking at the data.

Looking at the data you see quite a few example of Goalies who probably deserved a shot and were either stuck as backups or in the AHL. This is likely caused by scarcity of jobs and GMs and Coaches being a little conservative and sticking with know options until they are sure there's a better option. Which makes a lot of sense if you are having trouble analysis a position.

4) Looking at the Data Goalies seem to peak about 26-27 and are already dropping off at 28. Looking at the starting Goalies around the league I'm guessing that drop of is pretty gradual but my data set of 2003+ drafted goalies has kind of limited me here.


Long story short what I see is Goalies are very hard to analysis even by NHL people and as analysis of this position improves you'll see Goalies getting into the NHL younger and replacing the older Goalies. IMO Goalies don't peak much later than other players it's just teams are slower to give up on them because they are proven commodities.

Top Ten in 2005 and 2006 generated with data available in 2014.

Sidney Crosby
Anze Kopitar
Jonathan Quick
Carey Price
Marc-Edouard Vlasic
Paul Stastny
Marc Staal
Kris Letang
Jack Johnson
Bobby Ryan

Jonathan Toews
Nicklas Backstrom
Claude Giroux
Phil Kessel
Jordan Staal
Milan Lucic
Bryan Little
Brad Marchand
Steve Mason
Kyle Okposo

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