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Acq/ Rost. Bldg./ Cap Part XXXV: Trotzyism in Action

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Old
07-12-2014, 07:12 AM
  #151
Blades of steel
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Originally Posted by Acallabeth View Post
Who wouldn't? Ovechkin is so much more dangerous when he plays aggressive both in hitting and on offense. So much presence, and he thinks so much faster then. He actually plays hockey.
but, hitting doesn't win hockey games

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07-12-2014, 08:16 AM
  #152
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http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/20...-blocked-shots

http://rinkstats.blogspot.com/2013/1...key-games.html


I have not gone over all the charts and numbers but the above articles come to some different conclusions about shot attempts (what many consider "possession") and winning. However, they both note a correlation with face offs, which makes sense, and little correlation between hitting and winning.

A faceoff is a potential weighted coin flip for possession. You win more of those, you have more actual possession. Shot attempts are shot attempts, not possession. A desperate team dumping can change and get a start in the offensive zone. A turnover by a d-man can lead to a quick wrister and an easy save with a split second of possession. By contrast a confident and good team can rag the puck behind their own net while the forwards change. No shot is generated, the shift start is in the d-zone, but the better team has the puck. On a stat sheet measuring zone starts and shots as possession they will completely lack that context.

Hits don't equal winning but they don't hurt. They're entertaining and when well-timed serve a purpose. Hitting finesse players to knock them off their game or jar the puck loose is going to make more of a difference than a couple of grinders just banging each other in a pissing match.

Very few stats, if any, clearly determine winning other than the obvious ability to score more goals than the other guy on a given night.

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07-12-2014, 12:24 PM
  #153
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Nice write up Goon. Perhaps 10 years from now, a series of events will analyzed.

Think of a dump and chase team. Has the puck, dumps to corner.

Possession!
Deliberate Loss of Possession
Hit a Dman forcing a turnover.
Brief Possession
HQ Scoring chance

The sure seems like a great shift for a bottom 6, and not that uncommon a goal. Yet gave up possession deliberately, and had P for but a second or two before their scoring chance.

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07-12-2014, 08:21 PM
  #154
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http://www.monumentalnetwork.com/vid...skanen-7-12-14

liked a lot of the points that niskanen made. seems like a pretty humble and quiet dude, wouldnt cause problems with teammates. orpik is probably a dick though lmao

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07-12-2014, 11:10 PM
  #155
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Originally Posted by ryan519 View Post
http://www.monumentalnetwork.com/vid...skanen-7-12-14

liked a lot of the points that niskanen made. seems like a pretty humble and quiet dude, wouldnt cause problems with teammates. orpik is probably a dick though lmao
Never liked Orpik and probably never will, but one thing I did like about him was the rumor that he was responsible for the "remove the C from Crosby" dust up from a few years back.

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07-13-2014, 03:43 AM
  #156
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Never liked Orpik and probably never will, but one thing I did like about him was the rumor that he was responsible for the "remove the C from Crosby" dust up from a few years back.
And you're not worried he's going to try the pull the same stunt here?

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07-13-2014, 07:22 AM
  #157
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And you're not worried he's going to try the pull the same stunt here?
He probably won't need to. It seems like Trotz is going to do something about that already in putting together a "leadership group", which is probably captain by committee with Ovie still wearing the "C".

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07-13-2014, 11:49 AM
  #158
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I'm a bit surprised that the Caps signed Vanecek - does South Carolina need a goaltender?

Clarification - @NHLFreeAgents says the Caps have signed him, but I don't see it anywhere else:

"nhlfreeagents
‏@NHLFREEAGENTS
Washington Capitals signed (G) Vitek Vanecek to a three-year entry-level contract #NHL"

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07-13-2014, 12:03 PM
  #159
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If Vanecek came over, I'd be REALLY happy.

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07-13-2014, 12:27 PM
  #160
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If Vanecek came over, I'd be REALLY happy.

Just saw it on twitter 776k 2way for 3 years...ECHL Im guessing?

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07-13-2014, 02:22 PM
  #161
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I think the Avs would be absolute fools not to find an 8 year deal that works for both sides, but here's the latest from Dater on ROR and your daily pipedream:

http://prohockeytalk.nbcsports.com/2...artner=ya5nbcs

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07-13-2014, 03:21 PM
  #162
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Originally Posted by BrooklynCapsFan View Post
I think the Avs would be absolute fools not to find an 8 year deal that works for both sides, but here's the latest from Dater on ROR and your daily pipedream:

http://prohockeytalk.nbcsports.com/2...artner=ya5nbcs
The entire reason this keeps happening over and over is because O'Reilly doesn't accept a deal that works for both sides.

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07-13-2014, 03:34 PM
  #163
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The entire reason this keeps happening over and over is because O'Reilly doesn't accept a deal that works for both sides.
What is he rumored to be looking for? At 23, I'd put him at around the same level as Koivu, who got $6.75, 3 years ago. Given the cap and the age difference, I don't think $8+ is unreasonable.

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07-13-2014, 03:46 PM
  #164
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8 million? thats kessel money. O'Reilly isnt even close to that good, or koivu level 3 years ago.

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07-13-2014, 03:58 PM
  #165
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What is he rumored to be looking for? At 23, I'd put him at around the same level as Koivu, who got $6.75, 3 years ago. Given the cap and the age difference, I don't think $8+ is unreasonable.
What do you think his upside is offensively....curious. That's a lot of coin for a guy who's never scored 30 or put up 65pts.

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07-13-2014, 04:00 PM
  #166
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His dad is probably making him hold out for a league maximum contract or something ridiculous.

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07-13-2014, 04:08 PM
  #167
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What do you think his upside is offensively....curious. That's a lot of coin for a guy who's never scored 30 or put up 65pts.
I'm basing it mostly on Koivu -who I absolutely love. He's a Selke caliber center who in a good offensive season is going to give you 20-40. That costs $6.75 million.

I don't think it's unreasonable to expect 30-40 from O'Reilly and defense close to what Koivu brings. That's gonna cost you.

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07-13-2014, 04:23 PM
  #168
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Originally Posted by Marshall View Post
I'm a bit surprised that the Caps signed Vanecek - does South Carolina need a goaltender?

Clarification - @NHLFreeAgents says the Caps have signed him, but I don't see it anywhere else:

"nhlfreeagents
‏@NHLFREEAGENTS
Washington Capitals signed (G) Vitek Vanecek to a three-year entry-level contract #NHL"
It's on capgeek and Lavoie reported it after that showed up.

He is the 7th goalie under contract. The projected ECHL goalies were Anderson and Copley, so we are in wait and see mode as to what they do. Vanecek is only 18yo so there are options. Korn had an opportunity to work a lot with Copley and Vanecek this week. My understanding is that Brandon Anderson was at Kettler at some point the week Vrana was here skating before development camp.

Given Vanecek was a second round pick that they traded up to select, it will be interesting to see what the plan is for this season. As we know, import goalies no longer allowed in the CHL; if they were, I’m sure the Caps would have made sure he was drafted in the recent import draft, but we know it wasn’t an option.

Perhaps they are parting ways with a goalie, if not, they already have six goalies with two slated for the ECHL, so who knows what the plan is.

Also, Pasquale had season-ending hip surgery last season (think in Feb.) Obviously, he's signed and expected to be the back-up in Hershey, but I haven't seen any news as to whether he's expected to be ready at season start. I assume he is, but don't know for certain.

For Vanecek, options are back to Europe somewhere, perhaps steered by Korn and the Caps, USHL given he's 18yo should be an option, or perhaps ECHL.


Last edited by sk84fun_dc: 07-13-2014 at 04:34 PM.
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Old
07-13-2014, 04:43 PM
  #169
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still cant believe mitch korn is our goalie coach

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Old
07-13-2014, 04:43 PM
  #170
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Originally Posted by BrooklynCapsFan View Post
I'm basing it mostly on Koivu -who I absolutely love. He's a Selke caliber center who in a good offensive season is going to give you 20-40. That costs $6.75 million.

I don't think it's unreasonable to expect 30-40 from O'Reilly and defense close to what Koivu brings. That's gonna cost you.
Basically the 2c we need.

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07-13-2014, 04:44 PM
  #171
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isnt o'reilly a winger

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Old
07-13-2014, 04:49 PM
  #172
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isnt o'reilly a winger
He's a center who played wing due to depth.

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07-13-2014, 04:50 PM
  #173
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Basically the 2c we need.
To a t.

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07-13-2014, 05:02 PM
  #174
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He's a center who played wing due to depth.
is he really? any chance we could sign him?

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07-13-2014, 05:42 PM
  #175
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is he really? any chance we could sign him?
It'd probably cost Alzner + and then we'd have to pay him big money.

I love the player but that's pretty rich.

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