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2014-2015 Player Point Prediction Thread

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Old
07-19-2014, 10:44 PM
  #1
Razor29
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2014-2015 Player Point Prediction Thread

Second year in a row I am making this thread, hoping it will be a little more popular this time around.

Make changes to the lineup as you see fit and assume players play 82 games.

Last year for reference: http://avalanche.nhl.com/club/stats.htm

I'll start:

O'Reilly (27/39) - Duchene (24/60) - Iginla (29/29)
Landeskog (33/39) - MacKinnon (27/43) - Tanguay (13/38)
McGinn (17/21) - Talbot (8/18) - Briere (11/14)
McLeod (5/9) - Mitchell (11/16) - Winchester (3/8)

Stuart (2/16) - Johnson (10/32)
Hejda (5/13) - Barrie (17/28)
Holden (11/14) - Guenin/Redmond (1/9)

Varlamov (0/3)
Berra (0/0)

GF: 254 (last year was 250)

Top five point producers: Duchene (84), Landeskog (72), MacKinnon (70), O'Reilly (66) and Iginla (58).

Last year: http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh...633&highlight=


Last edited by Razor29: 07-19-2014 at 11:57 PM.
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07-19-2014, 11:09 PM
  #2
landy92mack29
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landeskog(35/45)-mackinnon(37/43)-tanguay(16/44)
o'reilly(29/34)-Duchene(26/54)-iginla(36/27)
mcginn(20/19)-Talbot(7/13)-briere(9/17)
McLeod(4/8)-Mitchell(8/17)-Winchester(5/8)

hejda(1/14)-Johnson(7/34)
stuart(3/14)-barrie(9/32)
holden(7/19)-Redmond(1/11)

varlamov(0/1)
berra(0/0)

GF=260

Top 5=Duchene(80)+landeskog(80)+mackinnon(80)+o'reilly (63)+iginla(63)

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07-20-2014, 12:26 AM
  #3
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MacKinnon 35/65

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Old
07-20-2014, 03:22 PM
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Nzap
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I'm holding on with these until we know the ROR and Barrz situations.

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07-20-2014, 03:56 PM
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The Shermanator
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Bold Prediction: We will have three 50 goal scorers.

Bolder Prediction: It will be Holden, Bordeleau and Malkin

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07-20-2014, 04:15 PM
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Landeskog(24/32) - Mackinnon(30/42) - O'Reilly(26/35)
Tanguay(15/38) - Duchene(39/44) - Iginla(25/30)
Mcginn(21/21) - Talbot(10/20) - Briere(12/26)
McLeod(7/8) - Mitchell(12/17) - Winchester(2/8)

Hejda(2/142) - Johnson(10/30)
stuart(1/8) - Barrie(14/31)
Holden(5/11) - Redmond(8/17)

This is based off 82 game projection. Obviously injuries happen but if every player played 82 games this is what I predict.

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07-20-2014, 04:34 PM
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Pierce Hawthorne
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ROR(23/44) - Duchene(31/52) - Iginla(26/33)
Landy(26/42) - Mackinnon(34/45) - Tanguay(14/22, misses ~30 games)
McGinn(20/22) - Briere(11/18) - Malkin(10/18)
Talbot(9/11) - Winchester(5/8) - McCleod(3/6)



Stuart(2/12) - EJ(10/32)
Hejda(2/6) - Barrie(14/33)
Redmond(6/15) - Holden(10/22)



212 Goals by forwards, 44 Goals by defenseman.


Duchene cracks 80+ and well over a PPG with 83 in 76 games. Mack also eclipsed PPG with 79 Points in 78 games. Landy and ROR improve slightly on last years season, although ROR's PPG improves a lot as he only play 72 games.

EJ and Barrie break 40 points for us on the Back end. Holden and Redmond end up playing spot duty in the Top 4 during the season when Hejda goes down early with a long term injury.


Avs are just as lethal as last year offensively, but Defensively we struggle a little more this year, which causes us to regress back to #4 in the division and 1st wild card spot for playoffs.

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Old
07-20-2014, 07:38 PM
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wow, bords actually gets a point...
I think we could have a 40 goal scorer... but only if the refs stop
GOON hockey...
OK
Landy and ROR have amazing starts...
Igy and MAc have amazing finishes... all 4 get over 20 goals lol

ok that is silly... MAc gets 40, duchy has most points but fewer goals
Hishon breaks into team and scores 25 goals in 2/3 of a season

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07-20-2014, 07:58 PM
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Razor29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nzap View Post
I'm holding on with these until we know the ROR and Barrz situations.
If something happens and they aren't on the team or there are new additions I will change mine.

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07-23-2014, 09:22 PM
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OSUlakers
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I think MacKinnon has the talent to achieve 85 points this year.

Duchene: 82
MacKinnon: 85
ROR: 59
Iginla: 62
Landeskog: 65
Tanguay: 55

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Old
07-23-2014, 10:02 PM
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chet1926
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All based off of 82 games played:

Duchene: 30G, 50A, 80pts
MacKinnon: 35G, 40A, 75pts
Landeskog: 24G, 43A, 67pts
O'Reilly: 26G, 39A, 65pts
Iginla: 28G, 30A, 58pts
Tanguay: 15G, 38A, 53pts
Barrie: 14G, 31A, 45pts
Johnson: 8G, 32A, 40pts
Briere: 12G, 25A, 37pts
McGinn: 18G, 16A 34pts
Holden: 9G, 22A, 31pts
Talbot: 7G, 19A, 26pts
Mitchell: 8G, 18A, 26pts
Hejda: 4G, 14A, 18pts
Redmond: 5G, 12A 17pts
Stuart: 2G, 12A 14pts
McCleod: 2G, 6A, 8pts
Winchester 3G, 5A, 8pts
Bordeleau: 2G 3A, 5pts

Others:
Noreau: 3G, 7A, 10pts (30GP, you have to figure there will be some injuries)
Hishon: 9G, 14A, 23pts (35GP, I think he'll get some playing time this year)


It's a total of 264 goals for the year, which is just slightly higher than last year. I expect more goals this year as we have added a goal scorer in Iginla and MacKinnon will probably score more this year.

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07-23-2014, 10:05 PM
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Pierce Hawthorne
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OSUlakers View Post
I think MacKinnon has the talent to achieve 85 points this year.

Duchene: 82
MacKinnon: 85
ROR: 59
Iginla: 62
Landeskog: 65
Tanguay: 55
I really believe next season will be huge for Duchene.


He was a man on a mission after the Olympics for us last year before his injury.


I see him building on that again. Honestly would not surprise me if he hit close to 90 points this season. I really think he has that upside in his game. I mean he was on a 82 point pace last season, and that was while shooting at a career worse 10.6% the same number of his injury plagued season.


His shooting percentage before last season was 12.7%, if he had shot at that level last year, he would have had ~29 goals. Another 6 points, and would have been at 76 in 71 last year.



Would not be the least bit surprised to see Duchene with a 30/60 season next year. He's going to be in that conversation with Tavares and Giroux this time next year.

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Old
07-23-2014, 10:44 PM
  #13
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I would love for Duchene to put up a point per game this season, because apparently thats the only way to be considered a good player now a days. Of course also to compete with the PPG wizard Taylor Hall.

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07-23-2014, 10:45 PM
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Now that it appears ROR will be on the team for the season and I'll assume Barrie is resigned as well, I'll wager my guess:

I'm accounting for projected injuries, benchings, etc

Duchene: 25G, 40A, 65pts
MacKinnon: 31G, 30A, 61pts
Landeskog: 25G, 35A, 60pts
O'Reilly: 20G, 35A, 55pts
Iginla: 25G, 25A, 50pts
Tanguay: 12G, 28A, 40pts
Barrie: 20G, 30A, 50pts
Johnson: 12G, 35A, 47pts
Briere: 12G, 15A, 27pts
McGinn: 20G, 25A 45pts
Holden: 15G, 20A, 35pts
Talbot: 5G, 20A, 25pts
Mitchell: 10G, 20A, 30pts
Hejda: 3G, 10A, 13pts
Redmond: 4G, 10A 14pts
Stuart: 0G, 15A 15pts
McCleod: 2G, 6A, 8pts
Winchester: 3G, 10A, 13pts
Bordeleau: 4G 6A, 10pts

Hishon: 7G 15A, 22pts
Noreau: 0G 6A, 6pts
Guenin: 0G 5A, 5pts
Wilson: 4G 10A, 14pts

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Old
07-23-2014, 11:52 PM
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chet1926
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AslanRH View Post
Now that it appears ROR will be on the team for the season and I'll assume Barrie is resigned as well, I'll wager my guess:

I'm accounting for projected injuries, benchings, etc

Duchene: 25G, 40A, 65pts
MacKinnon: 31G, 30A, 61pts
Landeskog: 25G, 35A, 60pts
O'Reilly: 20G, 35A, 55pts
Iginla: 25G, 25A, 50pts
Tanguay: 12G, 28A, 40pts
Barrie: 20G, 30A, 50pts
Johnson: 12G, 35A, 47pts
Briere: 12G, 15A, 27pts
McGinn: 20G, 25A 45pts
Holden: 15G, 20A, 35pts
Talbot: 5G, 20A, 25pts
Mitchell: 10G, 20A, 30pts
Hejda: 3G, 10A, 13pts
Redmond: 4G, 10A 14pts
Stuart: 0G, 15A 15pts
McCleod: 2G, 6A, 8pts
Winchester: 3G, 10A, 13pts
Bordeleau: 4G 6A, 10pts

Hishon: 7G 15A, 22pts
Noreau: 0G 6A, 6pts
Guenin: 0G 5A, 5pts
Wilson: 4G 10A, 14pts
You must be predicting that we will really suck. If Duchene only gets 65pts we're screwed, same goes for MacK only getting 61pts. Because that means they both either miss significant time due to injury or they both have somewhat regression years after last season.

The only way we are going to compete is if Duchene and MacK both stay healthy and play at a 70pts+ pace. Probably with one of them at a point per game pace closer to 82 pts. Our team will go as those two go. Just like the old days where everything started with Sakic and Forsberg.

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Old
07-24-2014, 12:16 AM
  #16
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No actual point predictions, but just some predictions of my own:

Iginla will score a lot of goals with Duchene and ROR. At least 30, IMO, and many of them on the PP. Those two are magical down low on the PP together, with give and go's and confusing the defenders, and now they'll have a right handed shot waiting in the slot for a one-timer? Money.

On that note, Holden will still score a lot of back door goals on the PP because teams will now focus on Iginla in the slot. You can't cover everyone.

MacKinnon doesn't have a sophomore slump at all, still hitting 70 points because other teams still have Duchene to worry about.

Our team Corsi is much better next year, even if the team isn't as good in the standings.

Zach Redmond nails down the 3rd pairing job and never lets go, turning into a stronger defensive, less offensive version of Nick Holden, and allowing the Avs to move Stefan Elliott for a young forward in a similar spot.

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07-24-2014, 01:12 AM
  #17
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Assuming 82 games for everyone, even though it makes for way too many players. I figure you can prorate based on how many they actually get (or what you think they will). Not gonna guess on games per player, as I do not want to speculate on injuries, other than I know they will happen. I did group them as lines, but not D pairs, and the extras separate. I also did not account for waiver/trade issues, so some of these guys may not get a game, and other guys play instead.

Duchene: 31G, 51A, 82pts
O'Reilly: 32G, 42A, 74pts
Iginla: 28G, 32A, 60pts

MacKinnon: 31G, 49A, 80pts
Landeskog: 29G, 43A, 72pts
Tanguay: 19G, 39A, 58pts

Briere: 13G, 23A, 36pts
McGinn: 17G, 18A 35pts
Talbot: 9G, 22A, 31pts

Mitchell: 12G, 23A, 35pts
McLeod: 6G, 11A, 17pts
Winchester 11G, 16A, 27pts

Bordeleau: 5G 5A, 10pts
Hishon: 12G, 24A, 36pts
Sgarbossa: 9G, 18A, 27pts
Bleackley: 1G, 4A, 5pts (this is the only one I will guess on games played, at 9, then sent back to Red Deer).

Barrie: 19G, 36A, 55pts
Johnson: 11G, 31A, 42pts
Holden: 10G, 25A, 35pts
Hejda: 4G, 13A, 17pts
Redmond: 8G, 18A 26pts
Stuart: 4G, 10A, 14pts

Wilson: 5G, 12A, 17pts
Noreau: 8G, 13A, 21pts
Elliot: 11G, 12A, 23pts

Makes a total of 238G from the 12+6 starters, down 7 from last year, but not really enough to matter, especially as some of the subs would be offensive upgrades to some of the starters (but defensive downgrades).

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07-24-2014, 07:32 AM
  #18
AslanRH
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chet1926 View Post
You must be predicting that we will really suck. If Duchene only gets 65pts we're screwed, same goes for MacK only getting 61pts. Because that means they both either miss significant time due to injury or they both have somewhat regression years after last season.

The only way we are going to compete is if Duchene and MacK both stay healthy and play at a 70pts+ pace. Probably with one of them at a point per game pace closer to 82 pts. Our team will go as those two go. Just like the old days where everything started with Sakic and Forsberg.
Duchene and MacK only tallied 133 combined last season and I have them at 126 so I can't see where 7 fewer points means I'm necessarily predicting the team sucking since they didn't suck last year.

I don't think the Avs will outscore last season's team though. I think this team has fewer options offensively once some injuries kick in, and I also think teams will be better prepared for Roy's system and style.

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07-27-2014, 01:43 PM
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NHL.com's top 200 fantasty players list:

MacKinnon (45th, 18th)
Duchene (27th, 38th)
Varlamov (41st, 36th)
Iginla (67th, 49th)
Landeskog (59th, 64th)
O'Reilly (123rd,111th)
Barrie (163th, 131st)
Johnson (175th, 152nd)

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07-27-2014, 05:52 PM
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Razor29
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They are really reaching with where they spotted O'Reilly imo. Should be up there with the likes of Landeskog and Iginla, maybe a tad lower.

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07-27-2014, 06:17 PM
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Steerpike
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In a lot of leagues penalty minutes are a good thing.

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07-27-2014, 06:25 PM
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They are really reaching with where they spotted O'Reilly imo. Should be up there with the likes of Landeskog and Iginla, maybe a tad lower.
He has not had the best +\-. I'm thinking that changes this year though with Duchene improving his defensive awareness and Iggy being on his line as opposed to PaP/McGinn/etc. That line should be a legit 2way line.

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07-27-2014, 06:29 PM
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Quote:
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In a lot of leagues penalty minutes are a good thing.
Why? PIM being talked about/listed as a good thing has always baffled me.

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07-27-2014, 06:31 PM
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In fantasy it's becuase of fighting, gives use to the "tough guys". Problem is most league don't differentiate PIMs, which is stupid.

A lot of fantasy is perception and O'Reilly still don't have the perception of a top line winger, many still think he's like a 3C, which is also stupid.

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07-27-2014, 06:36 PM
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My bad. I thought he meant real leagues.

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