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Dallas Stars: Building Hockey Juggernaut

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Old
07-28-2014, 07:51 PM
  #1
Bear of Bad News
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Dallas Stars: Building Hockey Juggernaut

http://www.sportingnews.com/nhl/stor...as-maple-leafs

Explores the Stars and various Corsi-related metrics.

Plus there's a curse word in one of the tables, if you're into that sort of thing.

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07-29-2014, 12:11 AM
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It's incredibly impressive what they are doing down there. Good to see. Good for them. I'm excited to watch them this year for sure

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08-02-2014, 11:18 PM
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They have yet to make a roster move that has been a detriment to the club. The big takeaway of this article is: since Nill took over in Dallas, he's the only GM who hasn't made an individual move that makes the team worse. Nuts.

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08-03-2014, 02:37 AM
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Some caution is appropriate here. If you want to talk about a GM who hasn't made a mistake, Mike Gillis basically went 3 seasons without making one. There can be a fine line between making a good/bad move, and often timing & luck is one of the biggest factors. Timing: having a guy like Seguin fall out of favour in Boston with the right assets to acquire him. Luck: having a roster that experienced what must have been one of the lowest injury totals last season, 14 skaters played at least 75 games.

Obviously they're still a good team and there can only be praise for what Nill has been doing (I'd take him any day over our new guy in Vancouver), and this summers moves can give them a big boost, but what I'm getting at is this pace isn't something that can be consistently kept up. The article kind of makes it seem like they're using the magical advanced stats to never make a mistake. Lots of teams are investing in these now, and the competitive edge last only as long as it takes for widespread adoption. I think we're probably past that point now.

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08-03-2014, 12:07 PM
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Originally Posted by Arno Dorian View Post
They have yet to make a roster move that has been a detriment to the club. The big takeaway of this article is: since Nill took over in Dallas, he's the only GM who hasn't made an individual move that makes the team worse. Nuts.
Gonchar signed to a 5 million/year contract. Horcoff signed to a 5 million/ year contract. Despite a large increase in discretionary spending has left the stars up against the cap with 2 valuable RFA's. Traded at the deadline for Tim Thomas who repeatedly crapped the bed. Could only secure a 5th round pick for Robidas at the trade deadline. Took a shotgun approach to draft exclusively defenseman in this draft.

It's this kind of mentality that enables cults and thriving warlords.

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08-03-2014, 12:33 PM
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Originally Posted by slim to nill View Post
Gonchar signed to a 5 million/year contract. Horcoff signed to a 5 million/ year contract. Despite a large increase in discretionary spending has left the stars up against the cap with 2 valuable RFA's. Traded at the deadline for Tim Thomas who repeatedly crapped the bed. Could only secure a 5th round pick for Robidas at the trade deadline. Took a shotgun approach to draft exclusively defenseman in this draft.

It's this kind of mentality that enables cults and thriving warlords.
If you're implying that Nill signed Horcoff to a 5mil/year contract, that's incorrect. He traded Larsen for Horcoff, who already had that contract.

edit: To clarify, I'm not saying that this makes it "better," I'm just pointing out that he didn't sign Horcoff to that contract.

And I think it's pretty early to start labeling this year's draft as a mistake, don't you?


Last edited by CorwiN: 08-03-2014 at 01:54 PM.
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08-03-2014, 02:42 PM
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Gonchar signed to a 5 million/year contract.
Which isn't a bad contract for him. He wasn't signed for that much money simply to contribute on the ice - he was brought in as an experienced veteran on the blue-line, and he's also turned into a mentor and leader for Nichushkin. There's no way to know if he'll be as bad as he was last year this year either - he's known for starting slow. At worst, this was a veteran signing to fill a spot on the blue-line that the kids couldn't fill just yet.

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Horcoff signed to a 5 million/ year contract.
He traded Larsen and a 2016 7th (two literally worthless pieces) for him.

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Originally Posted by slim to nill View Post
Despite a large increase in discretionary spending has left the stars up against the cap with 2 valuable RFA's.
Which, as has been outlined multiple times on the Stars' board, will not be any issue.

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Traded at the deadline for Tim Thomas who repeatedly crapped the bed.
Better than any other back-up goalie we had this season, and you really couldn't have expected that much from TT.

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Could only secure a 5th round pick for Robidas at the trade deadline.
What's your point? Would you rather have gotten nothing for him?

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Took a shotgun approach to draft exclusively defenseman in this draft.
Management has already come out and said that it just happened that way - they truly didn't plan on drafting all defensemen, that's just how their list fell.

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It's this kind of mentality that enables cults and thriving warlords.
Feel free to continue to make crazy and wild claims without really thinking them through.

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Old
08-03-2014, 04:06 PM
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This reminds me of an episode of "The Office" in which Michael declares bankruptcy by literally screaming bankruptcy in front of everyone. That's not how it works and it's not how it works here either. For a budget to be effective you must plan in advance. Screaming it's been fixed when you are out of capspace and have 2 key parts unsigned. Well that's good optimism, but that's not how it works.

He's done an ok job, a great job if you count Seguin and a no brainer Russian that fell in his lap. But he is no where near this level of blind trust/ hero worship.

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08-03-2014, 05:38 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by slim to nill View Post
Gonchar signed to a 5 million/year contract. Horcoff signed to a 5 million/ year contract. Despite a large increase in discretionary spending has left the stars up against the cap with 2 valuable RFA's. Traded at the deadline for Tim Thomas who repeatedly crapped the bed. Could only secure a 5th round pick for Robidas at the trade deadline. Took a shotgun approach to draft exclusively defenseman in this draft.

It's this kind of mentality that enables cults and thriving warlords.
shotgun approach? I would imagine BPA would explain it.

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08-03-2014, 05:54 PM
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Originally Posted by slim to nill View Post
This reminds me of an episode of "The Office" in which Michael declares bankruptcy by literally screaming bankruptcy in front of everyone. That's not how it works and it's not how it works here either. For a budget to be effective you must plan in advance. Screaming it's been fixed when you are out of capspace and have 2 key parts unsigned. Well that's good optimism, but that's not how it works.

He's done an ok job, a great job if you count Seguin and a no brainer Russian that fell in his lap. But he is no where near this level of blind trust/ hero worship.
How does this first paragraph draw any kind of parallel to what is actually happening?

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08-03-2014, 09:14 PM
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One thing I hate about being a fan of a Central team is this simultaneous feeling of excitement and dread for the upcoming season.

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08-04-2014, 12:16 PM
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They are not taking on any significant risk with players or contracts IMO. That has been the key to their success. You don't see them making big (and probably regrettable) splashes during FA. They have identified who they want to be and realize that nothing happens overnight.


Just wait until MIN is in the dumpster again with 35+yo players on 7.5mil/year contracts.

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08-04-2014, 12:42 PM
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I find the Stars to be overrated on HFboards. No defense and Spezza is going to probably test UFA next year. Prediction: they will be in the shadow of CHI, STL, COL, MIN for the next 5-7 years as a fringe playoff team.

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They are not taking on any significant risk with players or contracts IMO. That has been the key to their success. You don't see them making big (and probably regrettable) splashes during FA. They have identified who they want to be and realize that nothing happens overnight.


Just wait until MIN is in the dumpster again with 35+yo players on 7.5mil/year contracts.
What an obtuse statement. Who besides Parise and Suter are signed past age 35 at 7.5? Suter will probably be high level into his late thirties and I wouldn't put it past Parise to do the same given his work ethic. The rest of the team is filled with Vanek (6.5, 3 years), Pominville (5.6, 5 years), Koivu (6.7, 4 years) and a ton of very young (elc) players that got the Wild to round two of the playoffs. Almost every deal the GM has made is less than 7.5 and ends at or before age 35.


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08-04-2014, 02:08 PM
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I find the Stars to be overrated on HFboards. No defense and Spezza is going to probably test UFA next year. Prediction: they will be in the shadow of CHI, STL, COL, MIN for the next 5-7 years as a fringe playoff team.



What an obtuse statement. Who besides Parise and Suter are signed past age 35 at 7.5? Suter will probably be high level into his late thirties and I wouldn't put it past Parise to do the same given his work ethic. The rest of the team is filled with Vanek (6.5, 3 years), Pominville (5.6, 5 years), Koivu (6.7, 4 years) and a ton of very young (elc) players that got the Wild to round two of the playoffs. Every deal the GM has made is less than 7.5 and ends at or before age 35.
I disagree but who knows. Dallas's best talent are REALLY young in Benn, Seguin, Nich, they have a great prospect pool and they have augmented that young core with a couple of older pieces like Spezza and Hempsky. They may take a step back this year but they are poised for a run over the next 5 seasons as their guys enter their primes.

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08-04-2014, 02:29 PM
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Originally Posted by LatvianTwist View Post
Which isn't a bad contract for him. He wasn't signed for that much money simply to contribute on the ice - he was brought in as an experienced veteran on the blue-line, and he's also turned into a mentor and leader for Nichushkin. There's no way to know if he'll be as bad as he was last year this year either - he's known for starting slow. At worst, this was a veteran signing to fill a spot on the blue-line that the kids couldn't fill just yet.



He traded Larsen and a 2016 7th (two literally worthless pieces) for him.



Which, as has been outlined multiple times on the Stars' board, will not be any issue.



Better than any other back-up goalie we had this season, and you really couldn't have expected that much from TT.



What's your point? Would you rather have gotten nothing for him?



Management has already come out and said that it just happened that way - they truly didn't plan on drafting all defensemen, that's just how their list fell.



Feel free to continue to make crazy and wild claims without really thinking them through.
At the end of the day, though, this goes against the statement that he hasn't made a move that hurts his team. Just because they'll be able to make the Gonchar and Horcoff deals work doesn't mean they haven't hurt the team. That's $10.5 million they would've been able to spend elsewhere, and for a team with some pretty decent holes still, that's pretty huge. Also, in the article the writer tries to say how Nill's never made a bad move. Gonchar and Horcoff might not hurt the team(just as half of those moves really won't), but they're definitely not good moves.

I like what Dallas has done, but building a hockey juggernaut? Seriously?

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08-04-2014, 03:16 PM
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So their corsi barely peaked above previous recent peaks.

That's incredible.

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08-04-2014, 03:19 PM
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At the end of the day, though, this goes against the statement that he hasn't made a move that hurts his team. Just because they'll be able to make the Gonchar and Horcoff deals work doesn't mean they haven't hurt the team. That's $10.5 million they would've been able to spend elsewhere, and for a team with some pretty decent holes still, that's pretty huge. Also, in the article the writer tries to say how Nill's never made a bad move. Gonchar and Horcoff might not hurt the team(just as half of those moves really won't), but they're definitely not good moves.

I like what Dallas has done, but building a hockey juggernaut? Seriously?
They were decent moves considering DAL position at the time. Gonchar is certainly not a player you want on your team if your goal is winning the SC.

He is a decent player if you have young developing players that you feel need to be shown how a great defenseman prepares for the game. The money spent on him does not really matter as much because it didn't take from their roster.

DAL is not a cap team and were willing to sacrifice some $ (short term too) to try to reach their long term goals. They aren't good moves, but they aren't costly mistakes either IMO.

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08-04-2014, 03:40 PM
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They were decent moves considering DAL position at the time. Gonchar is certainly not a player you want on your team if your goal is winning the SC.

He is a decent player if you have young developing players that you feel need to be shown how a great defenseman prepares for the game. The money spent on him does not really matter as much because it didn't take from their roster.

DAL is not a cap team and were willing to sacrifice some $ (short term too) to try to reach their long term goals. They aren't good moves, but they aren't costly mistakes either IMO.
I'm fine with that, but you can make similar cases for similar moves around the league. Hell, with that list of all the dumb moves teams have made, you can argue that half of them are in the same boat, where they aren't really that costly at all. Not to mention, there's the added implication that it's some kind of amazing feat, which it really isn't.

Again, I like what he's done, but it's way too early to say he's building a "juggernaut".

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08-05-2014, 03:18 PM
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They may win the Corsi award within 10 years.

In the real world, they still are a flawed team.

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08-05-2014, 03:37 PM
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At the end of the day, though, this goes against the statement that he hasn't made a move that hurts his team. Just because they'll be able to make the Gonchar and Horcoff deals work doesn't mean they haven't hurt the team. That's $10.5 million they would've been able to spend elsewhere, and for a team with some pretty decent holes still, that's pretty huge. Also, in the article the writer tries to say how Nill's never made a bad move. Gonchar and Horcoff might not hurt the team(just as half of those moves really won't), but they're definitely not good moves.

I like what Dallas has done, but building a hockey juggernaut? Seriously?
I would agree this article is hyperbole and silly. As a Dallas fan, I haven't been comfortable with the sudden hype HF has around Dallas. We surely will be a better team, but just two seasons people were putting us in a lottery position because we didn't have any big acquisitions. Far too much emphasis put on offseason acquisitions.

Nill has done a wonderful job, but the Gonchar signing definitely backfired on him. As has been mentioned, it was a good signing at the time, but it was a risk that didn't work out. He's hardly infallible.

Dallas may be a great team in the future, and I'm expecting at least the 2nd round this season, but there's definitely reasons to still be skeptical.

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08-09-2014, 12:06 AM
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If Gonchar being brought in to be a mentor is "okay" then Gionta being brought in to Buffalo should also be one.

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08-10-2014, 08:26 PM
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This is where the NHL Analytic community goes off the rails... anything that cannot be quantified statistically, isn't given a second of thought. There was a reason Carkner played those games, and he filled that aspect well. To some in the analytic community though, toughness and the need for a cheap shot deterrent does not exist.

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New York Islanders: Matt Carkner played 53 times last year.

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08-11-2014, 11:03 AM
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This is where the NHL Analytic community goes off the rails... anything that cannot be quantified statistically, isn't given a second of thought. There was a reason Carkner played those games, and he filled that aspect well. To some in the analytic community though, toughness and the need for a cheap shot deterrent does not exist.
That is because it doesn't exist.

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08-11-2014, 11:08 AM
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That is because it doesn't exist.
Case in point.... another person that thinks they can build a contender with a pencil and calculator. Last I checked the word "Strato-matic" doesn't come in front of "NHL". In real life, there are things that cannot be quantified that will effect the outcome of a game.

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08-11-2014, 11:47 AM
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This is where the NHL Analytic community goes off the rails... anything that cannot be quantified statistically, isn't given a second of thought. There was a reason Carkner played those games, and he filled that aspect well. To some in the analytic community though, toughness and the need for a cheap shot deterrent does not exist.
The key with analytics is that they are a tool. They aren't the answer, they are part of the answer. Knocking them for not having intangible measurements (which is impossible) is just dumb. The good analytics people are able to take the "Advanced stats" and integrate them into the game without relying on them solely.

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