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Ryan O'Reilly Thread Part IV - O'Reilly SIGNS 2 yrs 12M (6M AAV) - No Arbitration

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07-26-2014, 01:40 PM
  #101
18007
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Originally Posted by JoemAvs View Post
Never said anything like that. I rate coach (!!!) Roy pretty highly.

But we lost one of our best possession players in Stastny (even PAP was pretty good IIRC) and Varly last year had an inhuman year.
Our D played above expectations. MacLean and even Sacco both had great Jack Adams worthy first seasons and than struggled in the second season. Roy certainly is no Sacco but I rated MacLean very highly before last year as well and it collapsed.

We overachieved. Period. Our young team should improve enough to get to that level next year but who knows. And our old players are not exactly pieces we can lean on. No one knows how Hejda, Stuart, Iggy, Tangs and Briere will do / hold up.

All I am saying is that making a disproportionate amout of fun out of statistics and Corsi often comes back to make you look foolish pretty soon. Especially if you ice the kind of defense that we do.

Same thing happened to the Leafsfans last year.
I remember reading posts just like that over there at that time.
Then it fell apart and people had to eat their words.

That is all I am saying. This season is a huge questionmark. And if everything crumbles than our poor shot differential (if not fixed) will be a big reason for it.
This is debatable to me. Did we overachieve because we ended up first in a hard division- Yes. Did we overachieve in that we reached the playoffs- no, we were a playoff caliber team all season.

People seem to under appreciate what a change in culture can bring to an organization. Add that to a ever ripening stellar core, add in a couple of key veteran pieces to help the young guys out and boom. Why not focus on the positives (and there are a lot of them) IMO.


Last edited by 18007: 07-26-2014 at 01:45 PM.
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07-26-2014, 05:14 PM
  #102
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Originally Posted by JoemAvs View Post
You guys sound a lot like Leafs fans last year before they collapsed.

I am not a fan of Corsi at all. But to completely dismiss it and make jokes about it will usually come back to haunt you IMO.

Avs have to do something about their poor shot differential or it will ultimately catch up to them somehow.
Joke was directed solely at Ryan Lambert's article and not at the concept of adv. stats. I agree that writing them off is foolish, just as it is to expect them to tell the whole story. The areas in which we need to improve are pretty clear

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07-26-2014, 05:41 PM
  #103
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I've said said it already, and will say it again: Roy is a scoring chances coach, not a shots on goal one.

It may be hard to repeat, but with 82 games a season, there's no such thing as «overachieving» from a statistical point of view. The probability of getting first place in the Avalanche's division, second place in the West and third place overall VS a «statistically predicted» lottery team, is over the usual 95% confidence interval. The resulting approach should be to question the actual statistics and try to incorporate the fact there isn't a single best system, like an overwhelming number of analysts (I find) seems to be fond of; it shouldn't be to stick to previous «wisdom» and blame it on a black swan.

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07-26-2014, 07:42 PM
  #104
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Perhaps it's how we define achieving, points mean nothing to me... For myself it's about playoffs.

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07-27-2014, 11:26 AM
  #105
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Any idea what line mates O'Reilly will likely play with next year? Do you expect his point production to be affected by the loss of Stastny?

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07-27-2014, 11:29 AM
  #106
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Any idea what line mates O'Reilly will likely play with next year? Do you expect his point production to be affected by the loss of Stastny?
He'll probably continue playing with Duchene...and I see Iginla on the RW on that line.

He never really played with Stastny so I'm not sure how his production should be directly impacted by Paul leaving.

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07-27-2014, 12:00 PM
  #107
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Depends on if Duchene and he continue to progress.

Having a competent line mate on RW won't hurt either.

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07-27-2014, 12:24 PM
  #108
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His shooting percentage was a touch high last year so I don't expect him to lead the team in goals. He should be around the same in points though. Maybe more assists due to Iginla.

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07-27-2014, 12:28 PM
  #109
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I'm hoping ROR proves he's a 7-7.5M dollar man this year. And then, I'm hoping we pay him. no ambiguity.

A ROR that is a near star in the league is a ROR I want on my team.

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07-28-2014, 12:14 PM
  #110
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Late to the party but:


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07-28-2014, 12:46 PM
  #111
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Originally Posted by WornWithPride View Post
I'm hoping ROR proves he's a 7-7.5M dollar man this year. And then, I'm hoping we pay him. no ambiguity.
A ROR that is a near star in the league is a ROR I want on my team.
I dont think that will be the problem.

The problem will be if ROR proves hes a 7M dollar man this year, but wants 8M. There will always be ambiguity seeing as how we cant quantify with precision his on ice skill with a salary.

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07-29-2014, 07:47 AM
  #112
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Hockey version of a shotgun wedding.

No big difference between this and an arbitration ruling. Trade him. He's gone first chance he gets in free agency.

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07-29-2014, 09:37 AM
  #113
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I was wondering what your reaction would be upon return

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07-29-2014, 03:16 PM
  #114
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Just caught up after being away for a week.

This was one of the worst case scenarios for me. It's nice to have him back but O'Reilly gets his 2 years and is in complete control now. I think they're fools if they think they'll be able to sign him to a reasonable long-term deal. Better not lose him for nothing like they did Stastny.

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07-29-2014, 04:02 PM
  #115
29MacKinnon29
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What's the max amount everyone is willing to go? If he played anything like last season or gets better, I think he's worth $7.25M, tops. I'm not sure management is willing to go that high, but that's what it'll cost to keep him here. Of course, they can always trade his ass.

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07-29-2014, 05:23 PM
  #116
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What is going to happen with his demands if he hits 30 goals? Or point per game? with UFA-status coming up.

8 figures?!

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07-29-2014, 05:28 PM
  #117
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Originally Posted by 29MacKinnon29 View Post
What's the max amount everyone is willing to go? If he played anything like last season or gets better, I think he's worth $7.25M, tops. I'm not sure management is willing to go that high, but that's what it'll cost to keep him here. Of course, they can always trade his ass.
I think that is something that should be answered next summer at the earliest. The answers will be significantly different if he has a 30-35g season vs a 20-25g season.

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07-29-2014, 06:08 PM
  #118
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Originally Posted by 29MacKinnon29 View Post
What's the max amount everyone is willing to go? If he played anything like last season or gets better, I think he's worth $7.25M, tops. I'm not sure management is willing to go that high, but that's what it'll cost to keep him here. Of course, they can always trade his ass.
Quote:
Originally Posted by RobinDIF View Post
What is going to happen with his demands if he hits 30 goals? Or point per game? with UFA-status coming up.

8 figures?!
Imo, this is probably the best case scenario. I would love to see him put up 30 goals this year or be near ppg. This would push him above duchene obviously, so pay the guy and move on.
I say 8M aav is not out of the question for a 6-8 year deal. I'll give him that if he's ppg.

Can you imagine. Mack, ROR, Duchene, Landy... I mean, landy may not get to ppg... but that's a lot of points right there. Make them your core and that'll be it.

In the end, we may be thanking the hockey gods we didn't resign staz. It may be key to being able to afford everyone.

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07-29-2014, 06:21 PM
  #119
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WornWithPride View Post
I'm hoping ROR proves he's a 7-7.5M dollar man this year. And then, I'm hoping we pay him. no ambiguity.

A ROR that is a near star in the league is a ROR I want on my team.
If ROR proves himself to be a 7 million dollar player, he is going to demand over 10.

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07-29-2014, 06:47 PM
  #120
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Just curious... I remember right after he signed everyone saying we couldnt sign him to an extension until July first next year but we didnt go to arbitration, it was avoided. So wouldnt that rule not apply anymore?

Sorry I was just randomly thinking about this.

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07-29-2014, 06:48 PM
  #121
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For me the problem is that unless he proves to be a legitimate start player going PPG and winning Selkes the next two years that would force us to pay him what he'd get, while I do believe he would happily stay with Colorado and we'd happily pay a bit extra to keep him in two years time he going to be offered more by other teams than we would, and I believe the difference between the two offers would be something he'd focus on, and go with the higher one.

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07-29-2014, 07:07 PM
  #122
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For me the problem is that unless he proves to be a legitimate start player going PPG and winning Selkes the next two years that would force us to pay him what he'd get, while I do believe he would happily stay with Colorado and we'd happily pay a bit extra to keep him in two years time he going to be offered more by other teams than we would, and I believe the difference between the two offers would be something he'd focus on, and go with the higher one.
Guaranteed, and I wouldn't be surprised if a team offered him $8.5M. (Leafs, Preds)

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07-29-2014, 07:11 PM
  #123
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Originally Posted by Avs For Life View Post
Just curious... I remember right after he signed everyone saying we couldnt sign him to an extension until July first next year but we didnt go to arbitration, it was avoided. So wouldnt that rule not apply anymore?

Sorry I was just randomly thinking about this.
We can hand him an extension tomorrow, but ROR isn't signing an extension. He's going to be well paid until he reaches free agency at age 25, which is what he wanted all along.

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07-29-2014, 07:15 PM
  #124
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Originally Posted by Avs For Life View Post
Just curious... I remember right after he signed everyone saying we couldnt sign him to an extension until July first next year but we didnt go to arbitration, it was avoided. So wouldnt that rule not apply anymore?

Sorry I was just randomly thinking about this.
No, it's nothing to do with the arbitration, just cba rules of when extensions can be signed. If he signed or was awarded a one year deal, you may begin to negotiate in January. Otherwise you can only begin July 1 of the last year of the deal.

We all know if O'Reilly sees the market he's more than gone. He either has to sign next summer or they know he's for sure on limited time here.

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07-29-2014, 09:32 PM
  #125
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ROR in September.

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