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Oilers hire Tyler Dellow

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Old
08-05-2014, 11:43 AM
  #76
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Originally Posted by Jimmi Jenkins View Post
Interesting, it will probably help. Does this mean him, and his ilk, won't just be utterly dismissive "jerk" above everything and everyone in hockey now?
Exactly, from now on they will be on their knees worshiping the KLowe and everything about his organization no matter how it reeks. Do you know what that is like?

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08-05-2014, 11:43 AM
  #77
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Originally Posted by Ol' Jase View Post
And as has been pointed out, and ignored, GF% was a much stronger indicator of success as it corralated to the NHL standings and success this year, with 16 of the top 18 teams in GF% making the playoffs, with the top team, the LA Kings, winning the Cup.

As for the Dellow hire, it can't hurt, but I would think he is going to be more responsible for the accumilation and input of raw data and less on having say in player personnel moves based on this data.
GF% is probably a stronger indicator of who had success in the past, but because its such a small sample size it is much more susceptible to noise and/or luck factor to be used as a predictor.

Its pretty much the definition of why people think the Avs are going to decline. Their GF% was extremely high due to high shooting percentages and high save percentages. Neither of which are likely repeatable, and if they don't start shooting more relative to their opposition they are going to have a worse GF% and worse record.

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08-05-2014, 11:51 AM
  #78
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Originally Posted by Tad Mikowsky View Post
Also the same guy who wanted Hall to start in junior for.....salary reasons.
Conklin = Brodeur and we should extend Gagner to a big long term deal BEFORE the lockout shortened season as well. Hopefully his knowledge has grown exponentially since then and he has something to bring to the table. For all of our sakes as fans of the team let's hope so.

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08-05-2014, 11:52 AM
  #79
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Originally Posted by ThatGuy22 View Post
GF% is probably a stronger indicator of who had success in the past, but because its such a small sample size it is much more susceptible to noise and/or luck factor to be used as a predictor.

Its pretty much the definition of why people think the Avs are going to decline. Their GF% was extremely high due to high shooting percentages and high save percentages. Neither of which are likely repeatable, and if they don't start shooting more relative to their opposition they are going to have a worse GF% and worse record.
???

It's 82 games, and exactly the same sample size as all of the other stat sample sizes.

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08-05-2014, 11:53 AM
  #80
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Originally Posted by Gone View Post
Exactly, from now on they will be on their knees worshiping the KLowe and everything about his organization no matter how it reeks. Do you know what that is like?
You're strange, I don't really get how you can come up with that conclusion, but what are you going to do.

No, worship might be a "bit" far, you understand there's an in between right? Or is all a blur for you now?

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08-05-2014, 11:54 AM
  #81
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Originally Posted by Beerfish View Post
- Over the past 7 or 8 years of this franchise average joe from this forum could do at least as good if not a better job of running the team.
Yeah, seriously doubt it. You think a nobody fan who has zero connections in this league will be taken seriously in any kind of trade talk and/or signing talk? Nope. There's a reason why the people who are in charge are in charge. And fans are notoriously bad at evaluating value of players. Not saying that MacT or Lowe are gods at this either, but when people on here say things like this, it just makes me shake my head. Go talk to Katz and show him that you could do a better job, if you think you actually could.

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- The guy they just hired was not a paid hockey man, he was joe fan like anyone else that thought he knew better than the pros and low and behold he is now hired.
As was mentioned, Dellow is obviously not the average fan. He, along with a few other stats guys have been hired recently. Why some people are acting like the Oilers are screwing up when other teams have been doing the same thing, is ridiculous.

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The average fan is not as dumb as people think.
True, but just because they are smart, does not mean that they can run a professional hockey team.
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The average hockey exec is not as smart as people think.
True, but they likely have more knowledge and experience with hockey than the average fan.

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08-05-2014, 11:54 AM
  #82
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I always liked him even back when he posted here, but he was a bit fanatical about his stats and wouldn't be shy about calling people idiots if they didn't see things his way. It will be interesting to see how well he can play with others, but his work in stats has always been very good and he can be an asset to the organization as long as he can be somewhat measured with his advice.

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Old
08-05-2014, 11:56 AM
  #83
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****, I hate this guy. We've blocked each other in Twitter. Oh well, hopefully I don't hear about him much.

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08-05-2014, 12:00 PM
  #84
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For all of those who don't seem to think Dellow will 'work well' with the team... do you not think they had a lengthy discussion/interview process with the man, in order to determine if he was right for the team or not?

Probably sat him down and said to him: "Show us what you can do" or something along those lines, and he proceeded to give them examples of what his work might be able to accomplish.

They obviously liked him enough to pay him money.

Can't wait for this team to start winning, so I don't have to read so many negative comments in every thread. The team signed someone who has a different perspective from the management team THAT MOST OF YOU COMPLAINING NOW CANNOT SAY A GOOD THING ABOUT. How is this a bad thing? So the guy is a ******. Do you have any idea how many ******'s there are in this world who are successful in what they do?

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08-05-2014, 12:02 PM
  #85
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Originally Posted by Ol' Jase View Post
???

It's 82 games, and exactly the same sample size as all of the other stat sample sizes.
He means there's a lot more shots than goals.

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08-05-2014, 12:05 PM
  #86
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Great hire. It's pretty clear that the way the game is being viewed and how players are being evaluated is starting to shift. Dellow is a really intelligent guy and attitude aside, produces great work.

Instead of rallying against "fancy stats" advocates such as Dellow, why not drop the ignorance act and take the time to learn about them? Even if it doesn't resonate with you, it's still a valuable tool for measuring performance, even if it's not the only tool in the toolbox.


Last edited by dyzfunctioned: 08-05-2014 at 12:13 PM.
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08-05-2014, 12:09 PM
  #87
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Originally Posted by Ol' Jase View Post
???

It's 82 games, and exactly the same sample size as all of the other stat sample sizes.
There is more to sample size then the number of games. Its about trackable events. The oilers had 306 goals(either for against) at 5v5 last year that go into GF%(which is really just goal differential expressed differently).

Compare that to 5224 Corsi events for the Oilers last year, and yes Goals is far to small of a sample size.

To put it another way, its pretty much common sense that a team with a good GF% is going to make the playoffs. Teams with a positive goal differential rarely miss the playoffs.

The question guys like Dellow and Eric Tulsky are asking and trying to determine is why those teams have good goal differentials, and what aspects of that good goal differential are repeatable.

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08-05-2014, 12:11 PM
  #88
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Some posters on this board right now:



A lot of egos here think they know the game better than Dellow, or just are cranky that somebody they don't like got hired by the Oilers for the stats work he does.

I wonder how many of the "egos" on this board are registering a domain name for their hockey stats blog right now?

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08-05-2014, 12:16 PM
  #89
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ThatGuy22 View Post
There is more to sample size then the number of games. Its about trackable events. The oilers had 306 goals(either for against) at 5v5 last year that go into GF%(which is really just goal differential expressed differently).

Compare that to 5224 Corsi events for the Oilers last year, and yes Goals is far to small of a sample size.

To put it another way, its pretty much common sense that a team with a good GF% is going to make the playoffs. Teams with a positive goal differential rarely miss the playoffs.

The question guys like Dellow and Eric Tulsky are asking and trying to determine is why those teams have good goal differentials, and what aspects of that good goal differential are repeatable.
You can grasp the concept that the number of Corsi events that would be classified as impossible to result in a goal is completely ignored yet highly significant, no?

Saying the LA Kings were able to be predicted to the win the cup based on Corsi% and saying that GF% doesn't matter due to "sample size" is pure folly and completely manipulation of circumstance.

GF% corralated more with regular season results that Corsi did, period. No end run or goalpost moving changes that fact one bit.

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08-05-2014, 12:18 PM
  #90
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Originally Posted by Moose Coleman View Post
He means there's a lot more shots than goals.
Goals, of course, being the only metric used in determining wins and losses.

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08-05-2014, 12:20 PM
  #91
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What, that jerk?

J/k. I used to have long debates with him on HF back when he used to post here more regularly. Smart guy, but I sure didn't see eye to eye with him on a lot of issues. I always got the impression he started with his conclusion(Hall should be in junior, Horcoff kicks ass, etc.) and then found stats to back his position up, rather than start with the stats and then see what can be drawn from them. Obviously the Oilers disagree with me. Guess I will have to accept my heaping plate of crow.

Congrats to Tyler on the new job. I hope he helps the team.

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08-05-2014, 12:25 PM
  #92
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ol' Jase View Post
You can grasp the concept that the number of Corsi events that would be classified as impossible to result in a goal is completely ignored yet highly significant, no?

Saying the LA Kings were able to be predicted to the win the cup based on Corsi% and saying that GF% doesn't matter due to "sample size" is pure folly and completely manipulation of circumstance.

GF% corralated more with regular season results that Corsi did, period. No end run or goalpost moving changes that fact one bit.
I don't know a lot about the subject of advanced stats, but I do believe that they have relevance. However, to your bolded section: those shots that miss the net, or get blocked do have the potential to result in a goal until they actually miss (and are not deflected by a teammate), or are actually blocked by the player.

It sounds kinda quantum-like, but they count until they don't count.

The idea behind Corsi is that you need to shoot in order to score. So it kind of makes sense to include the shots that don't actually end up as SOG. It's pure happenstance when a shot is blocked, thus removing it as a SOG. And same goes for missed shots and missed shots not being deflected in.

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08-05-2014, 12:27 PM
  #93
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Originally Posted by Ol' Jase View Post
You can grasp the concept that the number of Corsi events that would be classified as impossible to result in a goal is completely ignored yet highly significant, no?

Saying the LA Kings were able to be predicted to the win the cup based on Corsi% and saying that GF% doesn't matter due to "sample size" is pure folly and completely manipulation of circumstance.

GF% corralated more with regular season results that Corsi did, period. No end run or goalpost moving changes that fact one bit.
Second Bolded-
Who's moving the goalposts. I'd be willing to bet that is a true statement for every season in the history of the NHL.

What GF% does not tell you, is who is likely to make the playoffs next year, unless you look at the underling numbers that resulted in the GF%.

First Bolded-
Those concepts have not ignored, they have been studied and over the long run have shown to be insignificant. Just because you haven't seen something or searched for it, does not mean it does not exist.

I honestly feel like I'm talking to myself from 3 years ago, until I stopped making the straw man arguments and actually read and attempted to understand people like Dellow's research and results.

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08-05-2014, 12:28 PM
  #94
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Originally Posted by Draekke View Post
For all of those who don't seem to think Dellow will 'work well' with the team... do you not think they had a lengthy discussion/interview process with the man, in order to determine if he was right for the team or not?

Probably sat him down and said to him: "Show us what you can do" or something along those lines, and he proceeded to give them examples of what his work might be able to accomplish.
Way off.

Dellow was walking down the street and an unmarked utility van slowly pulled up beside him. He was swiftly pulled in and a bag was thrown over his head. He was then driven to an undisclosed location and was 'interviewed' by Lowe and company.

The whole process was just an effective way of eliminating Dellow's scathing criticisms of the team.

No one crosses the KLowe.

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08-05-2014, 12:28 PM
  #95
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Originally Posted by Draekke View Post
I don't know a lot about the subject of advanced stats, but I do believe that they have relevance. However, to your bolded section: those shots that miss the net, or get blocked do have the potential to result in a goal until they actually miss (and are not deflected by a teammate), or are actually blocked by the player.

It sounds kinda quantum-like, but they count until they don't count.

The idea behind Corsi is that you need to shoot in order to score. So it kind of makes sense to include the shots that don't actually end up as SOG. It's pure happenstance when a shot is blocked, thus removing it as a SOG. And same goes for missed shots and missed shots not being deflected in.
First of all, Corsi was originally created to track goalie activity.

Second, you need to shoot ON TARGET to score more. Corsi does not offer any distinguishment in these regards.

1 shot on target has infinitly more chance in resulting in a goal than 1000 missed shots.

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08-05-2014, 12:29 PM
  #96
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I'd rather hire a competent ******* than a useless nice guy.

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08-05-2014, 12:31 PM
  #97
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Originally Posted by Marlo Stanfield View Post
From Greg Wyshynski today: http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nhl-pu...medium=twitter

And Dellow was hired – after well over a year of flirtation between himself and the Oilers – because he had a few key personnel pushing for it.

So this could possibly be Eakins pushing for him.
Parkatti did numbers work for the Oilers and thought very highly of Dellow, if they had asked him, I'm sure he would be advocating for it too.

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08-05-2014, 12:32 PM
  #98
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Originally Posted by Ol' Jase View Post
Goals, of course, being the only metric used in determining wins and losses.
Absolutely, and advanced stats hope to determine the things within the game that allow teams to consistently and repeatably outscore their opposition. And how that can be incorporated into the team.

Fans of advanced stats and people that don't like advanced stats want the same thing. For their team to outscore their opposition. You care more about the after the fact results, I care more about getting a team that does the things that generally lead to the results.

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08-05-2014, 12:34 PM
  #99
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Originally Posted by Ol' Jase View Post
First of all, Corsi was originally created to track goalie activity.

Second, you need to shoot ON TARGET to score more. Corsi does not offer any distinguishment in these regards.

1 shot on target has infinitly more chance in resulting in a goal than 1000 missed shots.
Viagra was originally intended to treat high blood pressure. Doesn't mean it wasn't determined to be good at treating other things.

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08-05-2014, 12:35 PM
  #100
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Originally Posted by Ol' Jase View Post
First of all, Corsi was originally created to track goalie activity.

Second, you need to shoot ON TARGET to score more. Corsi does not offer any distinguishment in these regards.

1 shot on target has infinitly more chance in resulting in a goal than 1000 missed shots.
I never once stated what Corsi was originally created for. We both know what it is used for now, so why bring that up?

As I said (and you seem to be ignoring), any shot that is taken has the potential to score. As soon as the puck leaves the stick, think of time as stopping. Without knowing where it will go from there, it counts as a positive contribution to the team's offense. And in my limited knowledge of Corsi, this makes entirely perfect statistical, albeit somewhat quantum, sense. I may be wrong about my thoughts on the subject, since I really just started paying attention to advanced stats recently, but to me, the more often a player shoots the puck with intention of it going towards the goal net, the more chances of there being a goal. Pretty straight forward, cut and dried.

You're arguing the outcome of said shot. Which obviously is important. But in regards to what Corsi is measuring (potential offense, imo), it really doesn't matter. And this is why some people don't like it.

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