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Playoffs are still possible

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Old
03-04-2004, 07:16 PM
  #1
LALALALALALAFONTAINE
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Playoffs are still possible

The Islanders have the following sked, with how I think they'll do (questionable results in parentheses):

New York Islanders
Mar 4 @TOR 0.627 L
Mar 6 STL 0.523 W
Mar 9 @STL 0.523 L (road, home and home)
Mar 11 @SJ 0.629 L
Mar 12 @ANA 0.485 L (on the road, back to back)
Mar 16 @TB 0.652 L
Mar 17 @FLA 0.478 L (on the road, back to back)
Mar 19 MIN 0.462 W
Mar 21 TB 0.652 L
Mar 23 WAS 0.379 W
Mar 25 @PHI 0.632 L
Mar 27 CAR 0.438 W
Mar 28 @NJ 0.606 L
Mar 31 MON 0.559 W (home)
Apr 2 @CAR 0.438 W
Apr 4 PHI 0.632 L

The Habs have the following sked, with how I think they'll do (questionable results in parentheses):
Montreal
Mar 5 @PHO 0.455 W
Mar 6 @LA 0.554 L (back to back, road)
Mar 8 @ANA 0.485 W
Mar 11 FLA 0.478 W
Mar 13 TOR 0.627 L
Mar 16 COL 0.629 L
Mar 19 @NJ 0.606 L
Mar 20 NJ 0.606 W (home and home)
Mar 24 @BUF 0.492 L (road game for them)
Mar 25 OTT 0.636 L
Mar 27 @BOS 0.612 L
Mar 31 @NYI 0.553 L (road)
Apr 1 PHI 0.632 L
Apr 3 BUF 0.492 W (home game for them)

We have the following sked, with how I think we'll do (questionable results in parentheses):
Buffalo

Mar 6 @TOR 0.627 L
Mar 7 STL 0.523 W (St. Louis is back to back)
Mar 10 @WAS 0.379 W
Mar 11 BOS 0.612 L (back to back)
Mar 13 @BOS 0.612 L
Mar 15 TOR 0.627 W (Toronto at HSBC)
Mar 17 @ATL 0.463 W
Mar 18 @TB 0.652 L
Mar 20 @FLA 0.478 L
Mar 24 MON 0.559 W (home)
Mar 26 PIT 0.273 W
Mar 27 @PIT 0.273 W
Mar 29 CLB 0.388 W
Mar 31 @NYR 0.439 W
Apr 2 TOR 0.627 W (Toronto at HSBC)
Apr 3 @MON 0.559 L (road)

From the previous prediction, the increased performance of Florida means we lose to them. Still, if these predictions were to come to fruition:

NYI MON BUF
Expected Points: 12 10 20
Current Points: 73 76 65
Expected Total: 85 86 85
Average Opp. Pct: 0.545 0.561 0.506
…excl Buffalo 0.545 0.573 0.506
…excl NYI 0.545 0.562 0.506
…excl Montreal 0.544 0.561 0.498
…excl all 3 0.544 0.575 0.498
…excl all 3 & Leafs @ HSBC N/A 0.476
Home Games 7 7 7
Road Games 9 7 9

Basically, it means all teams still will be in a dead heat at the end of the season if they beat the teams they should. However, I adjusted for our dominance over the Queefs. I'm sure the Habs and Isles have similar patsies that I'm not aware of. And as the Habs have recently shown, you can beat teams better than you. And as the Isles have shown, you can lose to teams much worse than you. Still, I think it gives a reasonable expectation of how the rest of the season will play out.

It also indicates a few things. We should be gaining points on the Isles now, and throughout the rest of the season. The Habs should pick up a few points until the 13th. After that, we should ferociously catch up, as they play teams with an average .613 winning percentage, if you don't count us.

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Old
03-04-2004, 07:23 PM
  #2
Rhett4
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If the Isles and Montreal go .500, we're going to have to go about 12-4 in our last 16 to make the playoffs.

Possible? Certainly.

Likely? Not in the slightest.

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Old
03-04-2004, 07:44 PM
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LALALALALALAFONTAINE
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Both the Isles and Montreal have a killer sked though. And we play Montreal twice, so we can help Montreal get to .500 or worse. NYI is down 3-0 right now. The plan is working according to schedule.

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03-04-2004, 07:48 PM
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Things are looking a little better right now...I agree.

If the Isles lose tonight, which looks probable, and if we win and the Isles lose on Saturday, we'd be 6 points back with a game in hand. We have a chance to get right back in the thick of things.

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03-04-2004, 08:06 PM
  #5
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Well were beating the isles 3-0 but don't expect a gift game on saturday

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03-04-2004, 09:49 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alexander the Great
Well were beating the isles 3-0 but don't expect a gift game on saturday
Gift?

Come on, don't make us play Noronen...

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Old
03-05-2004, 09:52 AM
  #7
LALALALALALAFONTAINE
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You were beating us 3-0 in one game too this year.

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03-06-2004, 08:35 PM
  #8
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Quote:
If the Isles lose tonight, which looks probable, and if we win and the Isles lose on Saturday, we'd be 6 points back with a game in hand. We have a chance to get right back in the thick of things.
Well here we are right back in the thick of things.

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Old
03-06-2004, 08:41 PM
  #9
LALALALALALAFONTAINE
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Prediction Update:

New York Islanders:
Mar 4 @TOR 0.627 L
Mar 6 STL 0.523 W

Islanders are 2 points below my expectations for 85 points.

Montreal:
Mar 5 @PHO 0.455 W
Mar 6 @LA 0.554 L (back to back, road)

LA game is TBD, but Montreal is on schedule for 86 points.

Buffalo:
Mar 6 @TOR 0.627 L

Buffalo is 2 points ahead of my expectations for 85 points.

An excellent night for Buffalo. 6 points back with a game in hand.

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03-06-2004, 08:46 PM
  #10
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An excellent night for Buffalo. 6 points back with a game in hand.
Tommorow is HUGE. If we can win tommorow against the Blues in their arena, I'll go out on a limb and say WE MAKE THE PLAYOFFS.

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03-06-2004, 09:21 PM
  #11
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I still think a firesale is in order, but if we earn points tomorrow evening, we have a crisis. At the beginning of the year, I wanted to be in striking distance of the playoffs (at minimum) at the deadline and that's exactly where we might be. Considering all the rumors and his recent comments and antics, Miro is all but gone. HOWEVER, if we are indeed in "striking distance" tomorrow night (within 4/5 points), Regier can't possibly swing him for picks/prospects and, in effect, raise the white flag when there's plenty of fighting to be done. Regier's hands will be tied in negotiations as Miro will have to be replaced in the top 6 or a top 4 d-man will have to be acquired, something of immediate value. Furthermore, Regier can't possibly deal him to the Isles!


Last edited by Takeo: 03-06-2004 at 09:35 PM.
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Old
03-06-2004, 09:45 PM
  #12
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If we win tomorrow,I see us as buyers.This is a big if though seeing as Regier doesn't like to deal.Can you name one deal he made before January in any season?

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Old
03-07-2004, 09:55 AM
  #13
LALALALALALAFONTAINE
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fan-of-#9
Tommorow is HUGE. If we can win tommorow against the Blues in their arena, I'll go out on a limb and say WE MAKE THE PLAYOFFS.
You won't be saying that. It's at HSBC.

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03-07-2004, 09:58 AM
  #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LALALALALALAFONTAINE
You won't be saying that. It's at HSBC.
It's at HSBC?? Nice. Things are looking graaavy. 6PM @ HSBC...can't wait. I think I might head to the game.

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Old
03-07-2004, 10:02 AM
  #15
LALALALALALAFONTAINE
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DanielBriere48
If we win tomorrow,I see us as buyers.This is a big if though seeing as Regier doesn't like to deal.Can you name one deal he made before January in any season?
The entire list of Regier trades from opening day to January:

November 12,1997
Andrei Trefilov to Chicago for undisclosed draft pick

December 19,1998
Donald Audette to Los Angeles for 1999 2nd round draft pick (Milan Bartovic)

October 06,2000
Sabres pick up Peter Skudra off waivers from the Boston Bruins

November 16,2002
Jason Woolley to Detroit for future considerations.

Wow, I didn't realize it was that bad.

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Old
03-07-2004, 10:09 AM
  #16
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Just like Lindy said,if we gain 2 to 3 points a week we're as good as gold.We have to take full advantage of our patsy shed down the stretch and hopefully throw in a few wins against .500 or better clubs as well.It's entirely possible,but Miro has to stick around or else it's curtains for our playoff possibilities.

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