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Coleman Conference Consolation Round: Toronto Maple Austons vs Toronto Maple Leafs

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Old
05-19-2017, 04:53 PM
  #1
Theokritos
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Coleman Conference Consolation Round: Toronto Maple Austons vs Toronto Maple Leafs

Toronto Maple Austons

Credit to Johnny Engine for the incredibly good looking logo!



Coach: Tommy Ivan
Captain: Eddie Gerard
Assistant Captains: Bob Nevin, Maurice Richard

Aurele Joliat - Joe Thornton - Maurice Richard
Zach Parise - Norm Ullman - Andy Bathgate
Boris Mayorov - Vyacheslav Starshinov - Bob Nevin
Joe Klukay - Doug Jarvis - Cully Wilson

Spares: Albert Kerr, LW, Rick MacLeish, C/LW, Ken Wharram, RW

NOTE: Ivan reserves the right to form a line of Klukay - Jarvis - Nevin in such a case where a pure checking line is required.

Art Ross - Eddie Gerard
Ryan Suter - Drew Doughty
Ted Harris - Doug Mohns

Spares: Keith Magnuson

Roy Worters
Gump Worsley

PP1: Ullman - Thornton - Richard - Mohns - Bathgate
PP2: Joliat - Starshinov - Mayorov - Suter - Ross

PP spares: Doughty, Parise

PK1: Jarvis - Klukay - Harris - Gerard
PK2: Ullman - Nevin - Suter - Doughty

PK spares: Mohns, Joliat, Starshinov

Forward Minutes
PlayerES PP PK Total
Maurice Richard 15 5 0 20
Andy Bathgate 15 5 0 20
Aurele Joliat 15 3 0 18
Joe Thornton 13 5 0 18
Norm Ullman 13 4 1 18
Bob Nevin 10 0 4 14
Vyacheslav Starshinov 12 2 0 14
Boris Mayorov 12 2 0 14
Joe Klukay 8 0 5 13
Doug Jarvis 8 0 4 12
Zach Parise 11 0 0 11
Cully Wilson 6 0 0 6

Joliat will take some shifts in Parise's place on the 2nd line.
Richard will take some shifts in Wilson's place for offensive and occasional neutral zone draws.
Bathgate will take some shifts in Nevin's place for offensive and occasional neutral zone draws.

Defensemen Minutes
PlayerES PP PK Total
Eddie Gerard 19 0 4 23
Drew Doughty 18 0 3 21
Ryan Suter 16 2 3 21
Art Ross 17 2 0 19
Doug Mohns 14 5 0 19
Ted Harris 8 0 4 12

Bathgate will be manning the right point on the 1st PP unit.

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05-19-2017, 04:55 PM
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Coach: Barry Trotz
Captain Orr
Assistants Schmidt Chara

Alex Delvecchio-Milt Schmidt - Bryan Hextall Sr
Pete Mahovlich - Adam Oates- Peter Bondra
Daniel Sedin -Henrik Sedin-Tod Sloan
Harry Watson -Joel Otto -Dirk Graham
Dan Bain - Kent Nilsson -Bob Nystrom

Bobby Orr - Zdeno Chara
Jimmy Thomson -Gus Mortson
Rob Ramage- Wally Stanowski
Victor Hedman

Turk Broda, G
Roberto Louongo, G


Power Play

PP Unit 1

Delvecchio-Schmidt - Hextall
Orr Chara

PP Unit 2

Sedin-Sedin- Bondra
Stanowski- Oates

Penalty Kill

PK Unit1

Otto -Graham
Orr -Chara

PK Unit 2

Delvecchio-Schmidt
Thomson- Mortson

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05-19-2017, 06:01 PM
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I don't have much time to go too in depth right now. I'll just quickly say that obviously the biggest advantage either team has here is Bobby Orr vs. Eddie Gerard. However, please do not allow that to colour your view of the rest of the defense for both teams.

The 1st pair is a big advantage to TML and like I said, the biggest advantage that anyone has in this series most likely, followed very, very closely by the disgusting advantage the Austons hold at RW on the scoring lines. However, we can quickly see that the rest of the defense matches up very well for the Austons (in parantheses is the player's approximate rank among defensemen). So, going by Sturm's defensemen rankings:

Orr (1) > Gerard (~30)
Chara (~25) > Ross (~74)
Thomson (~60) < Doughty (~55, probably closer to 47 or so after this season?)
Mortson (~90) < Suter (~70, probably closer to 65 or so after this season?)
Ramage (unranked) < Mohns (~83)
Stanowski (unranked) < Harris (~121)

TML has a massive advantage on the first pair, and admittedly it is the most important advantage on the defense, then we have a sizeable advantage on the 2nd pair for the Austons and a chasm separating the players on the 3rd pair.

Because of the gap of the quality of TML's 1st pair compared to the rest of their defense, TML's 1st pair is likely to play a lot, and those are going to be very difficult minutes against the likes of Bathgate and Richard. Important note, Orr, who almost always plays the right side, would likely need to move to the left if he wants to check Richard and Bathgate. This won't necessarily cause a problem for Orr, but it may for Chara, particularly since life doesn't get a great deal easier on the left side against Joliat. Ullman and Thornton, of course, also provide their own problems offensively and with their respective power games.

What should really close the gap between our defenses is that the minutes the Austons' top pair get will be fewer, and also substantially easier. Orr is a handful, of course, but I would much rather play against the top-6 of TML than that of the Austons. Furthermore, closing the gap between the defenses even more, the quality of the minutes of each team's bottom-4 on defense will be substantially better for the Austons, particularly when the 3rd pair is out. The Austons 3rd pair, for example, could probably do well against all but the 1st line of the TML, whereas I'm not sure I'd want TML's 3rd pair out against any of the Austons' lines except perhaps the 4th.

All in all, I would probably concede an edge to the TML on the defense, and only because of the sheer importance of the 1st pair compared to the others, but I don't think it's all that large. The actual gap in quality of personnel on the defense in a vacuum isn't all that large, IMO. Mainly because, quite frankly, TML's 3rd pair is pretty awful.


Last edited by jarek: 05-19-2017 at 06:08 PM.
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05-21-2017, 05:52 PM
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So on the forward side of things, we have a big mismatch in favour of the Austons with the two-headed right wing monster in Richard and Bathgate. Just a quick look at VsX7 for the eligible forwards in each respective top-6 (blue = Austons, red = Leafs):

PlayerVsX7
Richard102.4
Bathgate101.1
Thornton95.6
Oates90
Ullman89.5
Schmidt86.9
Delvecchio84.8
Joliat82.6
Hextall80.9
Mahovlich73.8
Bondra72
Parise70.9

As we can see, there is a major mismatch offensively among each respective team's top-6, and I don't see that TML brings a significant and relevant intangibles advantage to the table to come anywhere near to making this up. I'm not sure I've ever seen a series where the 3 best offensive forwards were all on the same team.

Furthermore, who is going to match up against the Austons' offensive threats? If the Schmidt line is asked to go power on power, I think that could work against the TML because that leaves the Oates line to do the heavy lifting offensively, and I just don't think they're up to the challenge this time around. Mahovlich is misplaced as a left winger here for the most part. Bondra IS 24th all time in goals VsX7, so the chemistry is there with Oates in theory, but any line they line up against should be very well built to handle them (I can go into this in more detail upon request).

The offensive gap is closed a little bit if you compare the 3rd lines, as I believe the Sedins are the best offensive players among both 3rd lines, but they just don't bring the all-around game the Mayorov-Starshinov-Nevin trio brings, and I think that will be very important with the amount of minutes the two lines are likely to get.

This offensive gap is even more pronounced on the PP. Quite frankly, Orr doesn't even come close to helping to bridge the gap that exists among the other 4 players on the 1st PP units, and considering Bathgate should be the one compared to Orr in terms of the role that is being filled at the right point, the advantage the TML would have there isn't close to as great as it otherwise could be. Every single other position on the Austons' 1st PP is being filled by a superior player for a PP role. It is honestly one of the biggest mismatches of the entire series.

The 2nd PP units are probably a small edge to the TML, and maybe even a big edge, but that will be mitigated by the fact that the 2nd PP unit probably won't play a whole lot for the Austons as demonstrated in the minutes chart.

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05-24-2017, 03:30 PM
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Not really going to go too deeply into this but there is also a pretty sizeable gap in the coaching ability here, and it is one that is, unfortunately for the Leafs, very measurable. Ivan has a winning track record in the playoffs, winning the cup 3 out of 7 total trips to the playoffs. Trotz, however, has made a bad habit of underachieving in the playoffs thus far. His time in Nashville can largely be forgiven, but what's happened in Washington is starting to make it look like a pattern. Is he simply a coach that has a hard time getting a grip on how to coach in the playoffs? At this point, this is a very legitimate question.

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05-24-2017, 03:40 PM
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As for the PK units, I think we can largely call it a wash for the most part. The Austons have better forwards, particularly Jarvis, who was known as a master of intercepting passes on the PK, and Klukay was known to be very aggressive in playing a hard forechecking style on the PK. The weakness of the Austons' PK1 is obviously the defensemen, especially in comparison to the defensemen that exist on the Leafs' PK1.

I think what might tip the scales here in favour of the Austons is that, just like at even strength, the job of the defensemen on the PK will be a lot easier for the Austons than for the Leafs, who have to deal with a nightmare of a 1st PP unit. The 1st PP unit of the Leafs is nowhere near as menacing and the relative weakness of the defense on the Austons' 1st PK unit should be mitigated quite a bit due to that fact.

I also question Milt Schmidt being on an ATD PK unit. I think he did do some PK'ing in real life, but unsure of how much. Either way, the Austons should hold a rather sizeable advantage on the 2nd PK unit, mainly because of the defensemen.

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05-25-2017, 05:55 PM
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Does anyone have anything to add here?

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05-25-2017, 06:08 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarek View Post
Does anyone have anything to add here?
What is your plan for handling Bobby Orr as an opponent?

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05-25-2017, 06:18 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hawkey Town 18 View Post
What is your plan for handling Bobby Orr as an opponent?
Why am I not surprised? :sigh:

Honestly? I just plan to outscore the Leafs. I think I have the horses for it. If that's not good enough, I can go into more detail about the plan for Orr.

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05-25-2017, 06:32 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarek View Post
Why am I not surprised? :sigh:

Honestly? I just plan to outscore the Leafs. I think I have the horses for it. If that's not good enough, I can go into more detail about the plan for Orr.

So you want us to evaluate this series basis no specific plan for Orr (i.e. you will just "play your game")?

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05-25-2017, 07:17 PM
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Originally Posted by Hawkey Town 18 View Post
So you want us to evaluate this series basis no specific plan for Orr (i.e. you will just "play your game")?
Well, in theory, I guess it would go like this:

When Orr is rushing down the ice, all of Joliat, Parise, Mayorov and Klukay have the wheels to keep up with him and pester him. On top of that, all but Mayorov have the defensive skill necessary to stop him/strip him of the puck/what have you during his rushes. This is all assuming most of Orr's rushes go down the right side. Down the middle, it gets a little spicy, in that while Thornton and Starshinov have good defensively ability, they don't have the speed to keep up with him, so if they aren't able to poke the puck away from him, it might become a problem. It'll really be up to the guys at left wing to keep Orr at bay.

If Orr is starting at RD, I think it would be a little awkward for him to go down the left side, so I'm not too concerned about what happens if he tries to get past those guys. Though obviously it goes without saying that all but Nevin probably wouldn't have a good time trying to stop him. Richard and Bathgate have the wheels, just not necessarily the defensive skill.

If the Leafs decide to go power on power (which it looks like that's what their team is set up to do), obviously I will be counting on Parise and especially Joliat to tackle Orr. Otherwise, I would seek to to have Klukay out there as much as possible - he's probably the most ideal match to go up against Orr of all the forwards on my team, as he has the strength and speed to match up with him.

On the defense, I would aim to have either Gerard, Suter or Harris taking on Orr. Ideally Gerard or Suter, obviously. Was Orr known as a rough guy? I never got that read. I think the style of Suter and Gerard should play well into handling Orr.

I guess my team is built pretty well to handle a guy like Orr, in that there isn't a matchup that the Leafs could pursue that is an obviously horrible mismatch in his favour.


Last edited by jarek: 05-25-2017 at 07:28 PM.
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05-26-2017, 06:05 PM
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Still a lot of time left until voting but I am sensing that there won't be much more discussion going on here. So, in summary, the reasons why the Austons can win this series:

- A fairly significant coaching advantage, especially considering Trotz has had issues going deep in the playoffs.

- A fairly good response to the threat of Orr.

- The Leafs will struggle to contain the threat of both Richard and Bathgate. They have a reasonable response to one of them, but not both.

- A large advantage on the first PP units.

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05-27-2017, 10:21 PM
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One other thing of note, and not sure how much it's going to be a factor in this series, is that given the much higher quality of defensive depth on the Austons, that should lead to a situation where the entire D-corps overall will provide higher quality minutes. The Leafs' 3rd pair, for example, probably shouldn't see very much ice at all, which puts a big burden on the Leafs' top-4. This is magnified by the fact that playing against the Austons' top-6 would very likely be more difficult than playing against the Leafs' top-6, especially since that 2nd line honestly just isn't very impressive.

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