Philosophy of hockey Sabremetrics: Can hockey accurately be measured?

[Kloparren]

I love advanced stats. I don't really rely on them much for the now but how cool would it have been to have had them 40 years from now so we could compared defensive minded players and 2-way centres? Know which ones beared a tough or easy workload, etc.

[James Mirtle]

Originally Posted by jfb392

Some pretty funny happenings tonight re: advanced stats.
The Leafs were being outshot 11-3 by the Isles I believe, yet still had a 2-0 lead.
Leafs media guys that don't like advanced stats of words like "unsustainable" (James Mirtle and Dave Shoalts, in particular) proceeded to make fun of stat geeks on Twitter because of what had unfolded.

You need to read something I've written. Anything.

[jfb392]

Originally Posted by James Mirtle

You need to read something I've written. Anything.

Sorry, my bad, I saw Shoalts mentioning you as if you'd agree with what he was saying.

I'm not a Leafs fan so I don't read your stuff.

[blasted_Sabre]

Originally Posted by jfb392

Some pretty funny happenings tonight re: advanced stats.
The Leafs were being outshot 11-3 by the Isles I believe, yet still had a 2-0 lead.
Leafs media guys that don't like advanced stats of words like "unsustainable" (Dave Shoalts, in particular) proceeded to make fun of stat geeks on Twitter because of what had unfolded.

At the end of the 1st period though, the Isles had a 19-5 edge in shots and 3-2 lead.

The first period was somewhat misleading though as the Leafs had significant PK time, including a large chunk of 5 on 3. Thats going to skew the shot count of any team.

[Mike Farkas]

I'm not a stats guy, but I'm not going to just shut out the idea of them without doing due diligence, certainly.

I tried on behindthenet for an explanation, but didn't really get a sufficient one. Is there a good place where I could read about the explanation of these terms...how QoC is calculated, how QoT is calculated, etc.

Any recommended reading that yous could point me towards...?

[Dilettante]

Regarding fenwick/corsi stats, i just looked them up for the rangers/devils game this afternoon http://timeonice.com/shots1213.php?gamenumber=20671

Judging by fenwick/corsi alone it looks like the devils outplayed the rangers, but the rangers actually won the game pretty handily 4-1. Am I interpreting this wrong and, if so, how should these results be interpreted?

[TheNeutrality]

Advanced stats are interesting and can explain many things that seems to be random at first sight.
But some guys simply take them "too serious" and try to predict things that can't be (precisely) predicted with our current formulas.

And what I keep encountering: Blatant ignorance towards this topic. Especially this chapter gets ignored way too often.

[Danny34]

Originally Posted by Dilettante

Regarding fenwick/corsi stats, i just looked them up for the rangers/devils game this afternoon http://timeonice.com/shots1213.php?gamenumber=20671

Judging by fenwick/corsi alone it looks like the devils outplayed the rangers, but the rangers actually won the game pretty handily 4-1. Am I interpreting this wrong and, if so, how should these results be interpreted?

The thing is: Every hockey game is influenced by chance so much, that outplaying your opponent may not be enough on any given night. BUT if you continue to outshoot your opponent, you will end up winning more games than you lose. That's why FenClose after 30 games is a better indicator of a team's strength than their actual record. Just look at Minnesota in 11-12. After 35 games they were very close to the top of the NHL standings (if not at the top), but they won a lot of those games while being outshot. In the end they didn't even make the playoffs, because their good luck was bound to run out.
If you compare the end of year standings with the FenClose or FenTied standings, they're pretty similar, but it does take some time before the effects of luck even out.

To come back to your question: Over the course of a season the Fenwick and Corsi data "sync up" with the scoring chances and the scoring chances "sync up" with goals. So if New Jersey continues to outshoot their opponents, they will start winning games.

[GKJ]

Originally Posted by Dilettante

Regarding fenwick/corsi stats, i just looked them up for the rangers/devils game this afternoon http://timeonice.com/shots1213.php?gamenumber=20671

Judging by fenwick/corsi alone it looks like the devils outplayed the rangers, but the rangers actually won the game pretty handily 4-1. Am I interpreting this wrong and, if so, how should these results be interpreted?

Score effects take hold. Teams trailing by more than two goals are more likely to take more frequent attempts

or

The Devils did outplay the Rangers handily. Just wasn't their day.