That is the major problem I see with him right now. He's been shooting the puck more lately, but he needs to keep it up. Too often this year he's been looking to pass instead of shooting the puck.
Completely valid. Worse, there's times he dishes the puck to DK when he doesn't want it, and when he should hang on to it, or drive to the net himself.
Evander Kane's best season is still worse than best two of Lucic. Kane is earning 5.25 already on his second contract, with RFA years included, while Lucic is earning six mil for UFA years.
Chris Neil.. really? The 33 year old guy with a career high of 33 points you compare to Lucic? I dont even know what to say. Really?
Ott.. no comment. Lucic is nothing but Ott. Ott is a lesser Marchand.
Backes.. have you watched St.Louis this year? If you think Lucic is a shadow of himself, watch Backes. Also, Backes has signed his contract 3! years ago, while Milans hasnt even kicked in yet. Apples to oranges.
Callahan.. Lucic outproduced him in all but 1 season they were both in this league. And is outproducing him right now. Maybe you should check how the Rangers are doing this year.. a hint - not good. His contract is also 2 years old.
You're talking about the past, I'm talking about this year, the year Looch got paid, got fat, and got lazy. Kane, Backes and Callahan are all badly out-producing Lucic. Every single person I listed is out-hitting him statistically THIS YEAR.
Btw if I had to go into the playoffs with 33 year old Chris Neil this year, I'd feel great about it. We've had a lot of guys over 33 years old who were rock solid in the playoffs. Our blue line is anchored by 30+ year olds.
Ference 34
Chara 36
Seidenberg 31
Without even the smallest hestiation, I take Chris Neil (second in the nhl in hits if you need him...) at 1.9m going into a playoff series, over Lucic at 6m. If I can spend that 4.1m elsewhere, I don't hesitate. And I get just as much nasty on my playoff run, and far more leadership. Naturally in a vacuum if I can't spend the 4.1m elsewhere, then I'd be crazy to not keep Looch.
Also I understand that it's 4m this year, and 6m the next. But the fact is that the cap space for next year is already gone with his 6m now. It's a reality the GM already has to build around.
Last edited by RedeyeRocketeer: 04-01-2013 at 04:51 PM.
You're talking about the past, I'm talking about this year, the year Looch got paid, got fat, and got lazy. Kane, Backes and Callahan are all badly out-producing Lucic. Every single person I listed is out-hitting him statistically THIS YEAR.
Btw if I had to go into the playoffs with 33 year old Chris Neil this year, I'd feel great about it. We've had a lot of guys over 33 years old who were rock solid in the playoffs. Our blue line is anchored by 30+ year olds.
Ference 34
Chara 36
Seidenberg 31
Without even the smallest hestiation, I take Chris Neil (second in the nhl in hits if you need him...) at 1.9m going into a playoff series, over Lucic at 6m. If I can spend that 4.1m elsewhere, I don't hesitate. And I get just as much nasty on my playoff run, and far more leadership. Naturally in a vacuum if I can't spend the 4.1m elsewhere, then I'd be crazy to not keep Looch.
Also I understand that it's 4m this year, and 6m the next. But the fact is that the cap space for next year is already gone with his 6m now. It's a reality the GM already has to build around.
Trade Lucic and he will be flattening our team with a vengeance for the rest of his career and probably scoring some big goals against us also. It will wake him up, but he'll be on the other team He will come back to haunt us like Frankenstein's monster.
Well... we need to find a new Mike Komisarek and put him on the opposite team, because he seems asleep right now.
I choose Neil and 4.1M to spend on whatever I want. There's no convincing argument one could make to definitely disprove the idea. Depends how I spend the 4.1m.
I choose Neil and 4.1M to spend on whatever I want. There's no convincing argument one could make to definitely disprove the idea. Depends how I spend the 4.1m.
Dude I know Neil pretty good not my buddy but have a whole family that lives in the Flesherton area FACT every one of them have gotten free tickets and they'd even pick lucic over him .... YES he'd help but your getting carried away here
Last edited by BergyWho37: 04-01-2013 at 06:42 PM.
I choose Neil and 4.1M to spend on whatever I want. There's no convincing argument one could make to definitely disprove the idea. Depends how I spend the 4.1m.
The last GDT was a ****ing disaster to be honest. I'm disappointed in Horton (and Lucic's) play too but the entire thread exploded when the dude farted wrong. It was getting insanely annoying.
He's been inconsistent as hell but at the moment, he has goals in 3 straight games. Lucic has actually stepped up his play too as of late. They aren't beyond criticism especially with the whole only showing up for about 10min a game.. but the amount of whining in that last thread was completely unbearable.
You're talking about the past, I'm talking about this year, the year Looch got paid, got fat, and got lazy. Kane, Backes and Callahan are all badly out-producing Lucic. Every single person I listed is out-hitting him statistically THIS YEAR.
1st Real GM's don't make trades based on small sample sizes. 2nd you are very wrong about the players you are listing.
Kane has more points but none of the others do. Production is actually a rate stat. It is also far more important than hits.
Here is their production this year:
Lucic - 28:38
Kane - 28:37
Backes - 33:46
Callahan - 43:43
Neil - 49:39
Only Neil on your list is cheap and Lucic has more points in the last 2+ years than Neil has since 06-07. He is almost 3 times the player Neil is and 8 or 9 years younger.
Also take a look at these guys possession numbers. Lucic doesn't hit as much because he has the puck much more than these guys, and no one wants to go into a corner with Lucic. They aren't afraid of any of the other guys.
If Looch is fat and lazy now then he has always been fat and lazy. He is hitting more than any season since his rookie season. His possession numbers are better than ever. His shots are just under his career average. The only difference this year is shooting % which usually normalizes over a larger sample. I've been right about every single player I've mentioned this on, and many that I haven't mentioned; and we have already seen it with both Lucic and Horton starting to correct.
Lucic is still on pace for 50 points and top 10 to 15 in hits - in a down year. He is a huge reason Krejci is having his best year since he played on the 3rd line. Lucic has been an absolute bargain at $4 million. Once he is making 6 million, then we can judge him on 6 million. Maybe he will be overpaid, but based on his play over the last 2+ years, I don't think that will be the case. His value goes far beyond the numbers which have been very good.
Dude I know Neil pretty good not my buddy but have a whole family that lives in the Flesherton area FACT every one of them have gotten free tickets and they'd even pick lucic over him .... YES he'd help but your getting carried away here
The last GDT was a ****ing disaster to be honest. I'm disappointed in Horton (and Lucic's) play too but the entire thread exploded when the dude farted wrong. It was getting insanely annoying.
He's been inconsistent as hell but at the moment, he has goals in 3 straight games. Lucic has actually stepped up his play too as of late. They aren't beyond criticism especially with the whole only showing up for about 10min a game.. but the amount of whining in that last thread was completely unbearable.
I've given up on game day threads. Every thread on here has also turned into a game day thread with no analysis of whether these guys are actually playing good or bad.
Despite dominating possession the team is remarkably 8th in hits per game. They were 21st in the cup year. They are also 4th in fights, 5th in point percentage, 4th in Goal Diff., 1st in PK, 1st in FO%. The latter 4 are far more important than the 1st 2. They are remarkably similar to the cup team actually, with a better record and more hitting. Yet they don't hit or fight enough and aren't good enough. When they win, they didn't do enough of something for everyone, but when they lose that is all that matters. Well not really, they will still get criticized for something even if they outplay and outhit the other team.
Both expectations and perception vs reality are way off around here.
Cup year Horton:
80 Games, 26 goals, 53 points, 74 hits, 188 Shots
This year projected for 80 games:
80 Games, 26 goals, 47 points, 80 hits, 224 shots
Career low shooting percentage and fighting are the 2 things different. Shooting % should normalize as it has been, and he shouldn't fight now anyway. The cup year was also the only year he has ever fought much.
My post above on Lucic highlights that the grass isn't always greener, and usually isn't. Players that people think are so much better just aren't.
Here are some more players making good money that are only 3 points up or less than these guys:
JVR, Hossa, Pominville, Eriksson, Fleishmann, Glencross, Iginla, Perron, Richards (both), Lecavalier, Doan, Jordan Staal, Clarkson, Alfredsson, Selanne, Oshie, Burrows, Gaborik, Hemsky, Statsny, RNH, Backes, Sharp (24 games), Callahan, Grabovski, Zajac, Briere, Jokinen (both), Morrow, Penner, Havlat, Clowe, Hartnell.
Here is some more info for people to chew on that shows perception vs reality. When did the ripping on these really start - 10 games ago?
The ripping has continued even though they have more goals and points as Seguin and Marchand.
Last but not least below is where these guys rank in the entire NHL since the start of the cup season. Don't let a slightly down year over a 33 game sample cloud your judgement on how good these 2 guys are.
Lucic - 44th in goals, 47th in points, 37th in production - Market value IMO - $5.75+ million.
Horton - 70th in goals, 115th in points, 71st in production - Market value IMO - $4.5+ million.
There aren't many upgrades on these guys. Most of them are marginal at best, and doesn't guarantee they can come here and be better. The ones who are clearly better cost a lot of money so good luck trying to keep a team around them.
Horton - 70th in goals, 115th in points, 71st in production - Market value IMO - $4.5+ million.
It would not be hard at all to get a guy to score 50 points with DK as his center. The other issue, which you may or not be ignorning, is that Nathan Horton does nothing else. He is poor defensively, takes lazy penalties, and is only physical when he takes personal offense to someone taking a shot at him...never proactive. I would sign him for no more than 2.5m.
You're talking about the past, I'm talking about this year, the year Looch got paid, got fat, and got lazy. Kane, Backes and Callahan are all badly out-producing Lucic. Every single person I listed is out-hitting him statistically THIS YEAR.
Btw if I had to go into the playoffs with 33 year old Chris Neil this year, I'd feel great about it. We've had a lot of guys over 33 years old who were rock solid in the playoffs. Our blue line is anchored by 30+ year olds.
Ference 34
Chara 36
Seidenberg 31
Without even the smallest hestiation, I take Chris Neil (second in the nhl in hits if you need him...) at 1.9m going into a playoff series, over Lucic at 6m. If I can spend that 4.1m elsewhere, I don't hesitate. And I get just as much nasty on my playoff run, and far more leadership. Naturally in a vacuum if I can't spend the 4.1m elsewhere, then I'd be crazy to not keep Looch.
Also I understand that it's 4m this year, and 6m the next. But the fact is that the cap space for next year is already gone with his 6m now. It's a reality the GM already has to build around.
How are they BADLY outproducing him? Our you for real? They all have less points than Lucic. They all suck this year, except for Neal, who is his usual self, which is a quarter of Lucic. Backes is out of form, Callahan too, Kane doesn't develop as projected too.
And if you are talking hits - this is a ******** stat, because every arena counts it different, its not a major NHL stat.
And you take all these players over his NEXT contract without knowing what THEIR next contract is.
Just stop posting ********.
It would not be hard at all to get a guy to score 50 points with DK as his center. The other issue, which you may or not be ignorning, is that Nathan Horton does nothing else. He is poor defensively, takes lazy penalties, and is only physical when he takes personal offense to someone taking a shot at him...never proactive. I would sign him for no more than 2.5m.
Tell me who you are getting that will replace his production and how much you are paying. The UFA list isn't that attractive, or physical, or a defensive whiz list. I'm not ignoring anything, I think your evaluation of him is way off and your market value certainly is. I think every GM would take him at 4 million. He is 4th in goals and 14th in points on the UFA list. The average salary of those above him will be north of $4.5 million. He is also one of the youngest on the list.
I don't see the poor defense. I think he is a little above average. He was a +27 ..... on Florida, a +32 with the Bruins. The best defense is a good offense. His possession numbers are excellent with the Bruins. 1st on the team in 2011, 4th last year, and 5th this year. Better than Krejci every year. He is good on the boards or the possession numbers wouldn't be so good.
The whole top 6 and Kelly have more minor penalties, so I don't think he is any worse than anyone else in the lazy penalty department. He only has 5 minors all year.
He is 4th in hits for Bruin forwards. You don't have to be physical to be a good player. He uses the body well and doesn't put himself out of position going for the big hit. The object is actually to get the puck. The most important thing is production, not physicality, and he has been a very good player where it counts, and also in his limited playoff sample.
There are valid criticisms. Inconsistency is the biggest, but that applies to about 90% of the NHL.
He is the 1st player in the top 6 that I would be willing to give up. I don't care if he signs or not as long as he is replaced with a comparable or better player. But it will be hard to replace how good he is for $4M, let alone $2.5M. This place will be real fun when he leaves, puts up 30 goals and 55 Pts and we pay $4 million anyway for a guy that ends up with 35 points.
It would not be hard at all to get a guy to score 50 points with DK as his center. The other issue, which you may or not be ignorning, is that Nathan Horton does nothing else. He is poor defensively, takes lazy penalties, and is only physical when he takes personal offense to someone taking a shot at him...never proactive. I would sign him for no more than 2.5m.
agreed
But I have a sinking feeling that they are going to offer him 5 mil
How are they BADLY outproducing him? Our you for real? They all have less points than Lucic. They all suck this year, except for Neal, who is his usual self, which is a quarter of Lucic. Backes is out of form, Callahan too, Kane doesn't develop as projected too.
And if you are talking hits - this is a ******** stat, because every arena counts it different, its not a major NHL stat.
And you take all these players over his NEXT contract without knowing what THEIR next contract is.
Just stop posting ********.
Do you guys actually look at the stats, or just post whatever you feel like posting?
Kane: 13g's (More than Lucic), 13a's, 26 points (more than Lucic), more hits than Lucic.
Callahan: 10g's (double Lucic), 19 points (1 less than Lucic), more hits than Lucic
At 3 goals, Chris Neil has a WHOPPING 2 less than Lucic, in a fraction of the ice time, and is out-hitting Lucic.
For 2.95m, Ott has 2 less points than Lucic, out-hitting Lucic.
Sorry he's not worth 6m. He'll never be worth 6m. He's a 4-4.5m guy.
Evander Kane's best season is still worse than best two of Lucic. Kane is earning 5.25 already on his second contract, with RFA years included, while Lucic is earning six mil for UFA years.
Chris Neil.. really? The 33 year old guy with a career high of 33 points you compare to Lucic? I dont even know what to say. Really?
Ott.. no comment. Lucic is nothing but Ott. Ott is a lesser Marchand.
Backes.. have you watched St.Louis this year? If you think Lucic is a shadow of himself, watch Backes. Also, Backes has signed his contract 3! years ago, while Milans hasnt even kicked in yet. Apples to oranges.
Callahan.. Lucic outproduced him in all but 1 season they were both in this league. And is outproducing him right now. Maybe you should check how the Rangers are doing this year.. a hint - not good. His contract is also 2 years old.
Not exactly sure, but are these first line players you are comparing him too?
I almost thought you were comparing him to Patrick Kane,not even close.
Lets see according to TSN Lucic is the 117th and Horton 116th ranked in points, that is not getting it done for your first line unit. Kind of give Horton a bit of a pass because he has at least shown up for the playoffs in his short time here. Right about now we should start hearing the yearly luc must be playing hurt talk.
Do you guys actually look at the stats, or just post whatever you feel like posting?
Kane: 13g's (More than Lucic), 13a's, 26 points (more than Lucic), more hits than Lucic.
Callahan: 10g's (double Lucic), 19 points (1 less than Lucic), more hits than Lucic
At 3 goals, Chris Neil has a WHOPPING 2 less than Lucic, in a fraction of the ice time, and is out-hitting Lucic.
For 2.95m, Ott has 2 less points than Lucic, out-hitting Lucic.
Sorry he's not worth 6m. He'll never be worth 6m. He's a 4-4.5m guy.
Kane outproduces him slightly this season, while earning 1.25 more. Lucic otproduced him 2 previous seasons.
Callahan has less points, his team sucks although being the best in the league on paper. Also completely different player, wtf? Have you ever watched the rangers?
Neil has HALF the points Lucic has, while already heaving a great season statswise for his own limits.
And Ott is nothing like Lucic, stop bringing him up. Compare him to Marchand if you want.
6 Mil ARE what 4.5 mil used to be 3 years ago, you know, when guys like Getzlaf earned like 5.25? The same guy who is now signed to 8.25.
Not exactly sure, but are these first line players you are comparing him too?
I almost thought you were comparing him to Patrick Kane,not even close.
Lets see according to TSN Lucic is the 117th and Horton 116th ranked in points, that is not getting it done for your first line unit. Kind of give Horton a bit of a pass because he has at least shown up for the playoffs in his short time here. Right about now we should start hearing the yearly luc must be playing hurt talk.
Exactly my thoughts.
Also people saying 6m now is 4m a few years ago, is the salary cap not contracting? Exactly...
Also people saying 6m now is 4m a few years ago, is the salary cap not contracting? Exactly...
O rly?
The year Lucic signed his 4.25 mil contract the salary cap was 8! mil lower than the cap of the upcoming season. That alone would be 4.85 M in new cap dollars. But he happened to break out as 60+ point 1st line PF after that, therefore a raise.
I'd also like him to have signed for 5.25 or 5.5, but if 6M is the price to keep him - so be it.
He also was signed to his 6M contract the time the cap was 70M, keep that in mind. It was before the new CBA.
The year Lucic signed his 4.25 mil contract the salary cap was 8! mil lower than the cap of the upcoming season. That alone would be 4.85 M in new cap dollars. But he happened to break out as 60+ point 1st line PF after that, therefore a raise.
I'd also like him to have signed for 5.25 or 5.5, but if 6M is the price to keep him - so be it.
He also was signed to his 6M contract the time the cap was 70M, keep that in mind. It was before the new CBA.
Chia through Jacobs had an excellent idea the cap was going to contract. Jacobs was one of the big forces behind the CBA. But he was expecting a salary rollback and gambled wrong. That's why he's going to get 6m when he's really not worth it.
I am more than happy to have Milan Lucic taking up $6M a year in cap space.
We are SO fortunate as Bruins fans, to have this guy on our team. Spoiled ****in' brats some of us. Like a 14-year old getting a pony for her birthday and then complaining that it's not the quite the right color.
There are precious few forwards in the NHL that I would rather have in the black n' gold. And those precious few would never ever become available.
Never been a big fan of Lucic's. Not sure if he will be a 6mil/type of player. For me, if you are getting paid 6 mil you better be scoring goals, and 30+. The other intangibles are nice and all, but not for 6 mil/yr. If I want intangibles I would look elsewhere for much cheaper options. I don't see it yet with Lucic, but I think a guy like Jagr would be a good mentor to Lucic, as would have been Iginla.
I cant explain Lucic's lack of physical play and that is the most perplexing. In fact, for him, I think it makes him as a player. Without the dominating physical presence he is simply just another player. And that is what we are seeing now.
Only thing I can say is that he is either tired, banged up or...and this is the worst of all worlds....is that he doesnt view himself as the player that made him successful.
I'm not sure I am ready to go there with Lucic yet but there is that old saying... "crusher to rusher to usher." I suspect the Bruins management/coaches are steering him towards "more complete, smarter" player status and that's probably contributing to neutering his effectiveness - along with the nanny-state refs. Maybe. Whether some of this is also coming from him internally, I can't say. He would hardly be the first guy who spent his first couple years "proving himself" and then figured he had checked that off the list and could move on to a more rarified style of play. Problem is, like you're saying, he's a unique player specifically because of his physical play and that really is intimidating. Samson with his locks cut, that's what we seem to have now.
Anyway, I like Lucic a lot and want him to be successful and a real unique weapon for the Bruins. He's not at the top of his game right now and all I want is for him to get it going so it's easier to just cheer for him without all this noise.
He will come back to haunt us like Frankenstein's monster.
