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Should the Jets re-sign Bryan Little?

View Poll Results: Should the Jets re-sign Bryan Little?
Yes at $5.5 million per year over 6 years (but not over) 63 60.58%
Yes at $6 million and under per year over 6 years 32 30.77%
No 9 8.65%
Voters: 104. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
03-21-2017, 01:03 AM
  #126
garret9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Whileee View Post
Lowry ain't bad, either.
I wonder how much is sustainable thouhgh. Per minute he's below Dano, and remove that PP (which is lightly over exaggerated) and he falls behind Armia per minute too.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Puckatron 3000 View Post
In Garret's graph, I'm having trouble understanding what Little's negative "EV Defense" means compared to almost everyone else's positive "EV Defense". Little can't possibly be below a replacement level player in even strength defense...
He is putting up a below replacement impact in expected goals against relative to usage. I can't tell you why and can't tell you who is right, your eyes or the numbers. I can tell you it's at least telling you something, even if its exact estimate may be incorrect.

Byfuglien is also below replacement in EV def, and that makes sense. So maybe Little spends a lot of time with Byfuglien and it's not divvying the blame quite perfectly.

If you have been following me though, you'll see how Little started off this season fairly rough, and has been going up throughout the year.

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Old
03-21-2017, 01:28 AM
  #127
Festinator
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Peggy View Post
It has nothing to do with them wearing a thrashers jersey
Are you not aware of how bad the thrashers were?
the thrashers sucked at drafting and trading
Thrashers were made up of Mediocre players at best

The Jets have made it to the playoffs once...
Thrashers once
So that's twice from 1999 to 2017 lol
They're 0-8
Ya, the thrashers were terrible, that doesn't mean theres something wrong with every player they had. Little was drafted by them, and he's fantastic. I'm not sure what your argument is in regards to what I said, but there's no need to get rid of any "thrashers filth" like some of you say when there is none. If people think its players like Little, Wheeler and Buff (despite some of his actions) holding the team back because they played for atlanta and have a "losing mindset" as some would say, they're probably not very good at thinking. You don't get rid of these players without suitable replacements, and we have none for any of them.

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Old
03-21-2017, 02:27 AM
  #128
Whileee
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Quote:
Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
I wonder how much is sustainable thouhgh. Per minute he's below Dano, and remove that PP (which is lightly over exaggerated) and he falls behind Armia per minute too.



He is putting up a below replacement impact in expected goals against relative to usage. I can't tell you why and can't tell you who is right, your eyes or the numbers. I can tell you it's at least telling you something, even if its exact estimate may be incorrect.

Byfuglien is also below replacement in EV def, and that makes sense. So maybe Little spends a lot of time with Byfuglien and it's not divvying the blame quite perfectly.

If you have been following me though, you'll see how Little started off this season fairly rough, and has been going up throughout the year.
I actually don't think Little has been great defensively this year. He had a slow start after coming back from his injury. Neither has Buff. Enstrom seems in a down year, too. What do the numbers say?

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Old
03-22-2017, 09:10 AM
  #129
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Right On Here !!!

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Originally Posted by Peggy View Post
Jets can't get better by trading Little til we get a better centre than Little and the Jets don't have that
I think Scheifele is the better offensive centre, but Little is better in the dot and has a better 2 way play

If we get rid of Little the Jets become a 1 line team lol

Should be looking to move guys like buff, not trying to get rid of Little
Backasswards
Right on here with that statement- when you really think about it, there are not many second line centers in the NHL that are better than Little- "so sign him Chevy"-please do so !!! I think Chevy has made some great recruiting moves, and built in some great young talent, and would not be foolish enough to let Little go.(get it done!!!)

NOTE- Forget about all this crap he played for the Thrashers-totally irrelevant, this is a different mix of players now, with a different coach
The Jets need to sign Little- " get a solid goalie", "hire a good coach" and we'll be in the Stanley Cup final within 3 years. Just look how the Wild turned things around just by changing coaches. ( Boudreau-winning record with Anaheim, and the Wild.)-with the same players!!

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Old
03-23-2017, 06:29 AM
  #130
Puckatron 3000
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Quote:
Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
He is putting up a below replacement impact in expected goals against relative to usage. I can't tell you why and can't tell you who is right, your eyes or the numbers. I can tell you it's at least telling you something, even if its exact estimate may be incorrect.

Byfuglien is also below replacement in EV def, and that makes sense. So maybe Little spends a lot of time with Byfuglien and it's not divvying the blame quite perfectly.

If you have been following me though, you'll see how Little started off this season fairly rough, and has been going up throughout the year.
Ah, ok.

One thing I didn't understand about this "replacement" thing is that it was relative to usage. So the bar would be higher for Little than say Dano.

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Old
03-23-2017, 08:23 AM
  #131
Peggy
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Originally Posted by Festinator View Post
Ya, the thrashers were terrible, that doesn't mean theres something wrong with every player they had. Little was drafted by them, and he's fantastic. I'm not sure what your argument is in regards to what I said, but there's no need to get rid of any "thrashers filth" like some of you say when there is none. If people think its players like Little, Wheeler and Buff (despite some of his actions) holding the team back because they played for atlanta and have a "losing mindset" as some would say, they're probably not very good at thinking. You don't get rid of these players without suitable replacements, and we have none for any of them.
Obviously there was some alright players, but so far EVERY(well almost I haven't exactly went out of my way and checked) thrashers player has been a liability in some way

Kovalchuk is/was a great player, but wasn't he asking for a lot of money or something

They've all had issues and I understand no one is perfect, but those issues have been hurting the team
They're better trading pieces than building pieces
Little and Wheeler are the only players left who are less of a liability

But with the team showing no real progression, Wheeler could be better off somewhere else

-Byfuglien plays when he wants, he's our top paid defenseman and he's not our best anymore either
Hes a 2nd pair dman who needs to be to be paid less and play less minutes

Little is a good 2c who can play 1c
If he doesn't ask for too much he's the only thrasher I'd wanna keep

I'd like to know the kind of return you could get for Wheeler
and for byfuglien

What about moving byfuglien and Petan for a LHD?

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Old
03-24-2017, 12:00 PM
  #132
Mortimer Snerd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
I wonder how much is sustainable thouhgh. Per minute he's below Dano, and remove that PP (which is lightly over exaggerated) and he falls behind Armia per minute too.



He is putting up a below replacement impact in expected goals against relative to usage. I can't tell you why and can't tell you who is right, your eyes or the numbers. I can tell you it's at least telling you something, even if its exact estimate may be incorrect.

Byfuglien is also below replacement in EV def, and that makes sense. So maybe Little spends a lot of time with Byfuglien and it's not divvying the blame quite perfectly.

If you have been following me though, you'll see how Little started off this season fairly rough, and has been going up throughout the year.
I'm still intrigued by this. That chart generally showed us what we would expect to see. If it had been full of unexpected results we would question the method but that was not the case. "expected goals against relative to usage" is quite a mouthful. It is an aggregate of other stats and models. I wonder if looking at some simpler versions of Little's stats might explain this result? If not explain then at least confirm or deny this result.

It is possible that he is not as good defensively as we have come to believe. More likely, I think would be that he had a bad stretch of play that has [s]affected[/] shown up in this model. It would be nice to know simply as a fact about Little. I think it would have more value as information about the usefulness of this model. If in fact it draws attention to something like a stretch of atypical performance from a player, that otherwise tends to go unnoticed, that would say pretty good things about the model.

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Old
03-24-2017, 12:18 PM
  #133
Mortimer Snerd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Peggy View Post
Obviously there was some alright players, but so far EVERY(well almost I haven't exactly went out of my way and checked) thrashers player has been a liability in some way

Kovalchuk is/was a great player, but wasn't he asking for a lot of money or something

They've all had issues and I understand no one is perfect, but those issues have been hurting the team
They're better trading pieces than building pieces
Little and Wheeler are the only players left who are less of a liability

But with the team showing no real progression, Wheeler could be better off somewhere else

-Byfuglien plays when he wants, he's our top paid defenseman and he's not our best anymore either
Hes a 2nd pair dman who needs to be to be paid less and play less minutes

Little is a good 2c who can play 1c
If he doesn't ask for too much he's the only thrasher I'd wanna keep

I'd like to know the kind of return you could get for Wheeler
and for byfuglien

What about moving byfuglien and Petan for a LHD?
That may or may not be correct. It is a perception but nothing more. IF it is correct it is nothing but coincidental. There is no way on God's green Earth that it is in any way connected with their association with the Thrashers. This theme is akin to fearing black cats or the number 13.

Or, to take a completely different way of looking at it I suggest that, "so far [B]EVERY(well almost I haven't exactly went out of my way and checked)" thrashers player in the NHL is eventually "a liability in some way".

Keep looking for flaws in human beings and you will keep finding them.

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Old
03-25-2017, 06:57 PM
  #134
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Old
03-25-2017, 07:25 PM
  #135
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Good for Little!

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