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The Armchair GM Thread - LXXI

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Old
04-20-2014, 07:50 PM
  #1001
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Originally Posted by DecimatedHD View Post
They still wouldn't give TT + Saad. I doubt they would even put Saad in a package for Kesler
Well I think that would be what we would ask for. What we end up getting is a different thing, like I said, would be nice if we can get a package like that.

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04-20-2014, 07:51 PM
  #1002
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Well I think that would be what we would ask for. What we end up getting is a different thing, like I said, would be nice if we can get a package like that.
I would settle for TT + 2015 First + something

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04-20-2014, 07:52 PM
  #1003
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Originally Posted by arttk View Post
Well, it depends on a lot of things. Getting swept by the Blues (which i am hoping for) could cause that.

Anyhow, it is a hope. I think the more realistic version would be getting TT + 1st + something else for Kesler.
Even if they're swept I think it's a bit of a pipe dream. TT + 1 + something else like Shaw perhaps might be more realistic; however, I would much rather make a deal with Anaheim for Etem + Ottawa's 1st rounder.

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Old
04-20-2014, 07:56 PM
  #1004
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Originally Posted by arttk View Post
I agree, it takes a couple of years to really rebuild your prospect depth. I think things are definitely better than before. It seems like there will be at least 2 NHL players ( players, not stars) from the last 3 draft.

Jensen Corrado
Gaunce Hutton
Horvat Shinkaruk Cassels

If we can get young players like TT + Saad for Kesler, and combine that with not screwing up on our #6 selection, the future should be fine.
Even if every one of our prospects pan out and overachieve, we still lack that blue chip prospect who can produce at PPG+.

The way I see it, a cup worthy team needs a core of ~4 all star (more or less) forwards, ~3 all star defensemen and/or an allstar goalie.

You need at least 6-7 of these players as your core.

Boston: Krecji, Bergeron, Eriksson, Lucic, Iginla, Smith, Chara, Rask
Chicago: Toews, Kane, Sharp, Hossa, Saad, Keith, Seabrook
Pittsburgh: Sid, Malkin, Letang, Neal (they have less, but Sid and Malkin are both generational talents)
Colorado: MacKinnon, Duchene, Stastny, Landeskog, Johnson, Varlomov (this season)
San Jose: Thornton, Marleau, Burns, Pavelski, Couture, Boyle, Vlasic
Los Angeles: Kopitar, Doughty, Richards, Carter, Voynov, Quick

A lot of these teams have up-and-coming young players ready to replace their aging stars too. Smith, Saad, Hertl, Voynov, etc.

Our current prospects, if we get lucky, will see Horvat, Shinkaruk, Jensen and Tanev. We're still short 2-3 players for the future core.

And that's if we get lucky. Realistically, I'm only expecting Horvat to pan out as a 1B and maybe Shinkaruk as 1B/2A. I like Jensen, but he needs to show at least the same progress he made this year for the next two years.

Anyway, this team needs to shed its valuable veterans (3 out of 7 of our core) for value, take another high pick next year.

We'd have 4 blue chip prospects in Horvat, Shinkaruk, 2014 6th and a top 5 pick in 2015.

Optimistically, that's our Bergeron (Horvat), poor man's Parise (Shinkaruk), Draisaitl (Kopitar) or Dal Colle (Bobby Ryan), and at least Barzal.

If we're lucky enough to get Eichel or McDavid, we can shave 1 player off the necessary required number of players in the core.

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04-20-2014, 07:56 PM
  #1005
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Originally Posted by y2kcanucks View Post
Considering we out-sucked Carolina this year I don't think it's a stretch to think we could repeat that next year. Actually, unless there are some major changes up front and in net, I think people who view this season as a one-off like Philly's 06-07 are living in denial. This is not a contending team. This isn't even a legitimate playoff team. This is a very bad hockey team, with an old and stale (and overrated) core. There's also realistically not much cap space to bring in much help either. The only way for eventual improvement is for the team to accumulate a plethora of top young prospects.
Certainly, changes need to be made. And those changes will be a reason why they will not be in, or near, the bottom five of the league next year. The reason this team has taken a nose-dive is due to the reluctance to bring in new bodies, and the shift away from the style of play that made them successful. These are rectifiable issues.

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04-20-2014, 07:57 PM
  #1006
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Originally Posted by DecimatedHD View Post
I would settle for TT + 2015 First + something
You can also hope for the best

Quote:
Originally Posted by y2kcanucks View Post
Even if they're swept I think it's a bit of a pipe dream. TT + 1 + something else like Shaw perhaps might be more realistic; however, I would much rather make a deal with Anaheim for Etem + Ottawa's 1st rounder.
I prefer TT more than Etem. We need playmaking centers more than wingers. It seems like TT is better than what we can get at #10. Quality over quantity for me.

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Old
04-20-2014, 08:05 PM
  #1007
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Originally Posted by Wilch View Post
Even if every one of our prospects pan out and overachieve, we still lack that blue chip prospect who can produce at PPG+.

The way I see it, a cup worthy team needs a core of ~4 all star (more or less) forwards, ~3 all star defensemen and/or an allstar goalie.

You need at least 6-7 of these players as your core.

Boston: Krecji, Bergeron, Eriksson, Lucic, Iginla, Smith, Chara, Rask
Chicago: Toews, Kane, Sharp, Hossa, Saad, Keith, Seabrook
Pittsburgh: Sid, Malkin, Letang, Neal (they have less, but Sid and Malkin are both generational talents)
Colorado: MacKinnon, Duchene, Stastny, Landeskog, Johnson, Varlomov (this season)
San Jose: Thornton, Marleau, Burns, Pavelski, Couture, Boyle, Vlasic
Los Angeles: Kopitar, Doughty, Richards, Carter, Voynov, Quick

A lot of these teams have up-and-coming young players ready to replace their aging stars too. Smith, Saad, Hertl, Voynov, etc.

Our current prospects, if we get lucky, will see Horvat, Shinkaruk, Jensen and Tanev. We're still short 2-3 players for the future core.

And that's if we get lucky. Realistically, I'm only expecting Horvat to pan out as a 1B and maybe Shinkaruk as 1B/2A. I like Jensen, but he needs to show at least the same progress he made this year for the next two years.

Anyway, this team needs to shed its valuable veterans (3 out of 7 of our core) for value, take another high pick next year.

We'd have 4 blue chip prospects in Horvat, Shinkaruk, 2014 6th and a top 5 pick in 2015.

Optimistically, that's our Bergeron (Horvat), poor man's Parise (Shinkaruk), Draisaitl (Kopitar) or Dal Colle (Bobby Ryan), and at least Barzal.

If we're lucky enough to get Eichel or McDavid, we can shave 1 player off the necessary required number of players in the core.
You're assuming none of our later picks will pan out, which I find unrealistic. Plenty of guys were drawn from outside the first round, e.g. Sharp, Keith, Pavelski, etc., or that whoever replaces GMMG won't make some at least one deft trade (e.g. Carter, Johnson, Neal) or a big signing (e.g. Hossa, Chara). Lots can happen.

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Old
04-20-2014, 08:20 PM
  #1008
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Originally Posted by Wilch View Post
Even if every one of our prospects pan out and overachieve, we still lack that blue chip prospect who can produce at PPG+.

The way I see it, a cup worthy team needs a core of ~4 all star (more or less) forwards, ~3 all star defensemen and/or an allstar goalie.

You need at least 6-7 of these players as your core.

Boston: Krecji, Bergeron, Eriksson, Lucic, Iginla, Smith, Chara, Rask
Chicago: Toews, Kane, Sharp, Hossa, Saad, Keith, Seabrook
Pittsburgh: Sid, Malkin, Letang, Neal (they have less, but Sid and Malkin are both generational talents)
Colorado: MacKinnon, Duchene, Stastny, Landeskog, Johnson, Varlomov (this season)
San Jose: Thornton, Marleau, Burns, Pavelski, Couture, Boyle, Vlasic
Los Angeles: Kopitar, Doughty, Richards, Carter, Voynov, Quick

A lot of these teams have up-and-coming young players ready to replace their aging stars too. Smith, Saad, Hertl, Voynov, etc.

Our current prospects, if we get lucky, will see Horvat, Shinkaruk, Jensen and Tanev. We're still short 2-3 players for the future core.

And that's if we get lucky. Realistically, I'm only expecting Horvat to pan out as a 1B and maybe Shinkaruk as 1B/2A. I like Jensen, but he needs to show at least the same progress he made this year for the next two years.

Anyway, this team needs to shed its valuable veterans (3 out of 7 of our core) for value, take another high pick next year.

We'd have 4 blue chip prospects in Horvat, Shinkaruk, 2014 6th and a top 5 pick in 2015.

Optimistically, that's our Bergeron (Horvat), poor man's Parise (Shinkaruk), Draisaitl (Kopitar) or Dal Colle (Bobby Ryan), and at least Barzal.

If we're lucky enough to get Eichel or McDavid, we can shave 1 player off the necessary required number of players in the core.

Well I am just saying realistically, our "tank" will depend on the Sedins. If they produce then we will not tank, if they don't then we will probably end up in the same state we are this year.

I think this is how our young player roster would look in 2 years.

Shinkaruk Horvat Kassian
_____ _______ Jensen
Gaunce Cassels Fox

I think the center depth is really a big problem and that's why I have been suggesting that we should look at either Nylander or getting TT/Schenn for Kesler. I like TT more since it seems like he has potential to be a #1 C.

Then our young player roster in 2 years could potentially be.

Shinkaruk TT Kassian
Ehler/Ritchie Horvat Jensen
Gaunce Cassels Fox

I mean of course it CAN be better, but then throw in the vets that we have and maybe some UFA or maybe some micracle past our 1st round pick this year and beyond. It's not a bad young core to build off of.

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Old
04-20-2014, 08:40 PM
  #1009
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Originally Posted by VinnyC View Post
You're assuming none of our later picks will pan out, which I find unrealistic. Plenty of guys were drawn from outside the first round, e.g. Sharp, Keith, Pavelski, etc., or that whoever replaces GMMG won't make some at least one deft trade (e.g. Carter, Johnson, Neal) or a big signing (e.g. Hossa, Chara). Lots can happen.
Those guys you named made exponential progression year after year. Right now, there are five guys beyond out first rounders capable of even making those kind of progressions in Cassels, Hutton, Corrado, Subban and Fox.

They've made exceptional progress year to year, but need to continue in order to become high impact players. If we can get 2 top 4/top6 players out of these 5 players, I think we should be happy.

Hossa and Chara are signings that is unlikely to happen to us. I don't recall the last time a superstar player signed in Vancouver during his prime to chase the cup. The last time we signed any non-BC free agent that had top 6 upside was an over the hill Demitra.

The only way we sign an elite UFA is WPG/EDM/DAL are stupid enough to let Kane, Nugent-Hopkins or Benn walk for nothing. Vancouver's travel sucks, Canadian taxes, media pressure, etc.

I just don't see players with no ties signing in Vancouver for anything short of a major overpayment.

I've also been a strong proponent of acquiring Yakupov. He is a star talent ripe for the picking. One way of acquiring core level players without having to stink for an entire year.

Even then we'd still need a couple more players.

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Old
04-20-2014, 08:50 PM
  #1010
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Originally Posted by arttk View Post
Well I am just saying realistically, our "tank" will depend on the Sedins. If they produce then we will not tank, if they don't then we will probably end up in the same state we are this year.

I think this is how our young player roster would look in 2 years.

Shinkaruk Horvat Kassian
_____ _______ Jensen
Gaunce Cassels Fox

I think the center depth is really a big problem and that's why I have been suggesting that we should look at either Nylander or getting TT/Schenn for Kesler. I like TT more since it seems like he has potential to be a #1 C.

Then our young player roster in 2 years could potentially be.

Shinkaruk TT Kassian
Ehler/Ritchie Horvat Jensen
Gaunce Cassels Fox

I mean of course it CAN be better, but then throw in the vets that we have and maybe some UFA or maybe some micracle past our 1st round pick this year and beyond. It's not a bad young core to build off of.
The Sedins will produce, there's no question about it.

But with Kesler and Edler's potential departure, and maybe even Hansen and Burrows, we're looking at:

Henrik, Daniel, Garrison, Bieksa, Hamhuis, (Kesler, Edler, Hansen, Burrows).

That's 4 out of our 9 core veteran players gone at most, and 2 at least in Kesler and Edler.

Kesler and Edler averages 21 and 23 TOI/60. While they're not the engine that runs this team (Henrik), they're still integral pieces.

As soon as Henrik is out of the line up (which he inevitably will be due to age, durability decline, and increase in TOI), this team is probably one of the three worst teams in the league. And as soon as one or two of Bieksa, Hamhuis or Garrison inevitably joins Henrik on the IR, this team will witness another ugly stretch of hockey, probably going 0-7-3 for ten games.

As bad as Edler has been this season, he still won't be nearly as bad as whichever AHL scrub this team needs to call up when one of our top 4 guys go down.

So in my mind, I see 2015 as a season where this team should heavily consider doing a "full rehab" for the veteran players who remain and let them patch up completely.

I've been through injuries myself, and I know the stuff these guys are going through right now take way more than just a month or two to heal up fully - even with professional trainers and medical team. Henrik coming back in a month after broken ribs is rushing it. He's probably made it worse by doing that. I'd rather see him, Daniel and Garrison take the first 15-20 games off to heal up completely and let 2015 be a "reload year".

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04-20-2014, 09:02 PM
  #1011
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Originally Posted by Wilch View Post
The Sedins will produce, there's no question about it.

But with Kesler and Edler's potential departure, and maybe even Hansen and Burrows, we're looking at:

Henrik, Daniel, Garrison, Bieksa, Hamhuis, (Kesler, Edler, Hansen, Burrows).

That's 4 out of our 9 core veteran players gone at most, and 2 at least in Kesler and Edler.

Kesler and Edler averages 21 and 23 TOI/60. While they're not the engine that runs this team (Henrik), they're still integral pieces.

As soon as Henrik is out of the line up (which he inevitably will be due to age, durability decline, and increase in TOI), this team is probably one of the three worst teams in the league. And as soon as one or two of Bieksa, Hamhuis or Garrison inevitably joins Henrik on the IR, this team will witness another ugly stretch of hockey, probably going 0-7-3 for ten games.

As bad as Edler has been this season, he still won't be nearly as bad as whichever AHL scrub this team needs to call up when one of our top 4 guys go down.

So in my mind, I see 2015 as a season where this team should heavily consider doing a "full rehab" for the veteran players who remain and let them patch up completely.

I've been through injuries myself, and I know the stuff these guys are going through right now take way more than just a month or two to heal up fully - even with professional trainers and medical team. Henrik coming back in a month after broken ribs is rushing it. He's probably made it worse by doing that. I'd rather see him, Daniel and Garrison take the first 15-20 games off to heal up completely and let 2015 be a "reload year".
They didn't produce this year so I don't see how you can make that statement with any sort of certainty.

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Old
04-20-2014, 09:18 PM
  #1012
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Originally Posted by Wilch View Post
Those guys you named made exponential progression year after year. Right now, there are five guys beyond out first rounders capable of even making those kind of progressions in Cassels, Hutton, Corrado, Subban and Fox.

They've made exceptional progress year to year, but need to continue in order to become high impact players. If we can get 2 top 4/top6 players out of these 5 players, I think we should be happy.

Hossa and Chara are signings that is unlikely to happen to us. I don't recall the last time a superstar player signed in Vancouver during his prime to chase the cup. The last time we signed any non-BC free agent that had top 6 upside was an over the hill Demitra.

The only way we sign an elite UFA is WPG/EDM/DAL are stupid enough to let Kane, Nugent-Hopkins or Benn walk for nothing. Vancouver's travel sucks, Canadian taxes, media pressure, etc.

I just don't see players with no ties signing in Vancouver for anything short of a major overpayment.

I've also been a strong proponent of acquiring Yakupov. He is a star talent ripe for the picking. One way of acquiring core level players without having to stink for an entire year.

Even then we'd still need a couple more players.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wilch View Post
The Sedins will produce, there's no question about it.

But with Kesler and Edler's potential departure, and maybe even Hansen and Burrows, we're looking at:

Henrik, Daniel, Garrison, Bieksa, Hamhuis, (Kesler, Edler, Hansen, Burrows).

That's 4 out of our 9 core veteran players gone at most, and 2 at least in Kesler and Edler.

Kesler and Edler averages 21 and 23 TOI/60. While they're not the engine that runs this team (Henrik), they're still integral pieces.

As soon as Henrik is out of the line up (which he inevitably will be due to age, durability decline, and increase in TOI), this team is probably one of the three worst teams in the league. And as soon as one or two of Bieksa, Hamhuis or Garrison inevitably joins Henrik on the IR, this team will witness another ugly stretch of hockey, probably going 0-7-3 for ten games.

As bad as Edler has been this season, he still won't be nearly as bad as whichever AHL scrub this team needs to call up when one of our top 4 guys go down.

So in my mind, I see 2015 as a season where this team should heavily consider doing a "full rehab" for the veteran players who remain and let them patch up completely.

I've been through injuries myself, and I know the stuff these guys are going through right now take way more than just a month or two to heal up fully - even with professional trainers and medical team. Henrik coming back in a month after broken ribs is rushing it. He's probably made it worse by doing that. I'd rather see him, Daniel and Garrison take the first 15-20 games off to heal up completely and let 2015 be a "reload year".
Maybe it's just deja vu... but I feel like I've read almost these exact same posts from you before... I'm not being facetious. This is a strange feeling.

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Old
04-20-2014, 09:31 PM
  #1013
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Originally Posted by arttk View Post
Well I am just saying realistically, our "tank" will depend on the Sedins. If they produce then we will not tank, if they don't then we will probably end up in the same state we are this year.

I think this is how our young player roster would look in 2 years.

Shinkaruk Horvat Kassian
_____ _______ Jensen
Gaunce Cassels Fox

I think the center depth is really a big problem and that's why I have been suggesting that we should look at either Nylander or getting TT/Schenn for Kesler. I like TT more since it seems like he has potential to be a #1 C.

Then our young player roster in 2 years could potentially be.

Shinkaruk TT Kassian
Ehler/Ritchie Horvat Jensen
Gaunce Cassels Fox

I mean of course it CAN be better, but then throw in the vets that we have and maybe some UFA or maybe some micracle past our 1st round pick this year and beyond. It's not a bad young core to build off of.
Sedins are staying until there contract ends and that is final. This is how I see our young lineup looking when they are gone, and lets just say Kesler gets traded to Anaheim.

Kesler for Etem + Noeson + OTTs 1st

So Kesler will replace Etem and that 1st pick gets you a top 6 player who is young. We know that Anaheim isn't going to give up two young guys for Kesler so we have to go for more of a bottom six player. We can turn that 1st into someone like Kapanen or Fluery, maybe even Nylander if he drops low enough. I would probably go for more of a Dman with Anaheim's pick.

Ehlers - Etem - Jensen
Shinkaruk - Horvat - Kassian
Guance - Santorelli - Hansen
Matthias - Richardson - Archibald

Anyways if Kesler is gone this is how I see next seasons roster.

Sedin - Sedin - Jensen
Burrows - Etem - Kassian
Higgins - Horvat - Santorelli
Matthias - Richardson - Hansen

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Old
04-20-2014, 09:34 PM
  #1014
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Well the topic was originally brought up in relation to Kane. When it comes to dealing prospects for established players there's a bunch of factors to consider, including how competitive each team is, the age of each team, the age and contract of the established player, the upside of both players, etc. Tampa wouldn't trade Drouin for Kesler because Kesler's ten years older, Tampa has a number of young players, they're good now but look to be better in a couple years as their players mature, and his potential is far greater than Kesler's. This isn't the case with someone like Horvat and Kane, where Kane arguably still has higher potential even though he's the established guy, and his best season so far is about as valuable as what reasonably would be expected from Horvat. A better comparison would be Drouin to someone like Seguin, and you're kidding yourself if Tampa doesn't make that deal, but clearly Dallas wouldn't.

And yet we didn't see a name prospect move for Seguin... Why? No Zibanejad for Ryan either...

Teams just don't trade prime prospects if they feel they are worth the stretch.

Also, why is Kane's further potential seen as greater than Horvat's full potential? What major elements do you think Kane can still add? Kane likely remains the volume shooter he is, while Horvat goes from prospect to very good 2C. Maybe a 1B. The potential lies with Horvat not Kane.

Lastly, a great deal of asset value is lost by dealing prospects too early. It's just prudent to develop these better pieces further and then trade them, as opposed to dealing them now without any NHL track record.

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Old
04-20-2014, 09:45 PM
  #1015
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Maybe it's just deja vu... but I feel like I've read almost these exact same posts from you before... I'm not being facetious. This is a strange feeling.
It's not deja vu. It's me repeatedly spreading my propaganda to people who likely have no influence over any decision made by the Canucks organization.

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