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I should point out that by no means do I expect him to decline. The age and past trends are certainly in his favor. But youngsters have this sort of thing happen all the time and it's not always a guarantee of future performance - for a recent example in the same age bracket, see Nikolai Kulemin.
I'd be more cautiously optimistic rather than pessimistic. It's just that there seems to be a lot of unbridled optimism here, which is potentially misplaced. (I hope it isn't - I want to see him succeed, and think he's likely to - but there's that chance.)
I agree that it's not a sure thing, but imo he has been a 2nd liner the past two seasons. I just think it's unfair to write him off because of his playing style.
Have you not read any posts in the thread? 110th is a top tier 2nd liner. Not to mention his 1st line 5-on-5 production. Foligno hasn't had any PP time cause the coach is an idiot, and like you think he is a grinder that can't produce because of his style.
My point is that judging a player's value on one career season is no way to go.
That's how the Sabres ended up overpaying for Ville Leino.
The past four years has Foligno putting up David Clarkson-esque numbers twice (11/12 & 08/09). Do you consider Clarkson a top tier 2nd line player?
So the last 2 years, he's been top 180 (i.e. a 2nd liner on any team in the NHL), while bringing everything else he brings, while playing with less than stellar linemates, and limited PP time.
He hasn't gotten a lot of PP time, because he's behind guys like Spezza, Alfie, Michalek, Turris, Fisher (before he was traded), Kovalev (last year), etc on the depth chart for PP time. Even a guy like Neil, who spends a lot of time in front of the net on the PP. Plus he plays a lot (for his role on the depth chart) on ES and PK. All this not even mentioning that without even looking at the numbers, I know the Sens are among the lowest teams in the league in terms of PP time/game.
Borderling 2nd/3rd line guys would be roughly in the 165 to 195 range (bottom 15 2nd liners and top 15 3rd liners), right?
Foligno has been above that range once, in that range twice, and below that range once over the past four seasons.
I don't see how it is outrageous to say that he's a borderline 2nd/3rd liner when you look at more than just this past season.
I agree that it's not a sure thing, but imo he has been a 2nd liner the past two seasons. I just think it's unfair to write him off because of his playing style.
Oh, I'd agree. I'm certainly not writing him off. I'm just not about to pay for him to be my 2nd line winger of the future quite yet.
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Borderling 2nd/3rd line guys would be roughly in the 165 to 195 range (bottom 15 2nd liners and top 15 3rd liners), right?
Foligno has been above that range once, in that range twice, and below that range once over the past four seasons.
I don't see how it is outrageous to say that he's a borderline 2nd/3rd liner when you look at more than just this past season.
That's definitely acceptable. But you also have to factor in...how old is he? how is he trending? I find it silly to focus on how its a career year when the player is so young.Most years for young players are career years....because they're improving...
Foligno can put up 60 points if given the opportunity.
Before the Sens acquired Turris, Foligno was centering the 2nd line and was playing great. Now that he's back on the 2nd line, we are seein yet another resurgence.
Im not saying he's worth 2 firsts, but to be worthwhile for the Sens , we would need either the 12th and a defender, or Ennis (where we would add a prospect).
OK, now we're getting a bit ridiculous. Foligno's GPG, SPG, and SH% remained perfectly in line with his career norms this year, while his APG almost doubled. We'll have to see it happen again before believing he's more than the 30-35 point, 2-3 point-share guy he'd settled in as over the previous three seasons.
I'd easily move him for the 12th pick or for David Savard, to reference two suggestions made in this thread. Neither Buffalo or Columbus would oblige though.
3rd liner like foligno...so much wrong with what you're saying. So much lack of knowledge on your part.
Fun Knowledge facts for you:
-There are 3 players on a first line.
-There are 30 teams.
-top lines are usually reserved for offensive guys...generally speaking, the more offensive you are, the higher up the depth chart you are.
Still following?
-Nick foligno is 110th in forward points.
Now you're going to need to have basic 4th grade math skills to follow.
Top 90 forwards= top line per team...right? 3 top forwards and 30 teams...3x30=90.
91-180= 2nd liners offensively speaking. nick foligno is 110. 180-45=135...135= average second liner offensively.
So using the simple math you learned in grade 4, you see that foligno is an above average second liner offensively when compared to the rest of the league.
Yay! knowledge is fun, right!?
Its called puck luck, result of getting tons of grit assists in an offensive system, whatever you want to call it. It happens from time to time. I'd say Foligno has established himself as a solid 2nd/3rd line winger and has been previously been beaten to death, if he can keep up those numbers, then it will be hard to argue him not being a 2nd line winger. Its been one season, and will have to improve for it to happen next year.
Foligno has gotten a bit more consistent but I'm hesitant to say he has the vision or consistency yet to be a good top six forward yet. No way in hell has his play dictated that he is as close to being a first line forward.
That's definitely acceptable. But you also have to factor in...how old is he? how is he trending? I find it silly to focus on how its a career year when the player is so young.Most years for young players are career years....because they're improving...
The key will be does he keep this season's level, or improve, next year?
Sens fans obviously want to talk up the likelihood that he'll build on next season to pump up his trade value and non-Sens fans will take a more cautious view of what he'll do to deflate his trade value.
I would be surprised if Foligno increased his offensive numbers next year unless he spends a sizable portion of next season on Spezza's wing.
