HFBoards

Go Back   HFBoards > General Hockey Discussion > By The Numbers
Mobile Hockey's Future Become a Sponsor Site Rules Support Forum vBookie Page 2
By The Numbers Hockey Analytics... the Final Frontier. Explore strange new worlds, to seek out new algorithms, to boldly go where no one has gone before.

Adjusted Even Strength Points

Reply
 
Thread Tools
Old
04-20-2013, 04:14 AM
  #1
Sturminator
I voted for Kodos
 
Sturminator's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: West Egg, New York
Country: Ukraine
Posts: 7,386
vCash: 500
Adjusted Even Strength Points

Ok, well I have decided to expand the study a bit to achieve some kind of a better overview. Thus far, I have worked through all of the post-expansion ATD wings selected between the 3rd and 18th rounds (well, mostly just wings - I have quite selfishly added the lower line centers who I currently own, Bobby Smith was already in, and for some reason I did the numbers for MacTavish), and I am stopping there, for now. The table is sorted by 10 season weighted average. Here it is:

Player12345678910Total
Jarome Iginla8583767168655858585468.7
John Leclair9386817370655654424068
Luc Robitaille7473717070686463595467.3
Mark Recchi7574746665646159585866.1
Brett Hull8867666664626260565565.3
Martin St. Louis7873707068676562483865.2
Theo Fleury8369676665625858524663.6
Ken Hodge10384745955555243393661.9
Ilya Kovalchuk7272706760595654474761.5
Paul Kariya7371706563605851464261.2
Keith Tkachuk7570636262595854504860.9
Daniel Alfredsson7472646161585652515060.7
Alex Mogilny8376706361545247434360.6
Pavel Bure8876756663574846422360.5
Marian Hossa6665626259585855554959.5
Tony Amonte7268666460555251484859.4
Dany Heatley7975736562625741391859.3
Patrik Elias8378595555535250494859.1
Pavol Demitra7976646352515046464458.3
Vincent Damphousse6363636057575552524857.6
Michel Goulet7772595654535249464457.1
Markus Naslund8077665552484645434156.6
Brendan Shanahan6957565656555453535156.3
Steve Shutt8667626258565138352856.1
Glenn Anderson6865636157564746444256
Peter Bondra7062615856525248473855.4
Wayne Cashman7875585855554340393755.2
Ziggy Palffy7372645855544441402854.5
Marian Gaborik7670675654534340393154.5
Dino Ciccarelli6458575454525251484654.1
Gary Roberts7163585553504847454254
Mike Gartner6257565655535048464653.5
Glen Murray8473635652414134343452.9
Patrick Marleau6557545352524847474652.6
Yvan Cournoyer6864575649484644434252.6
Rick Middleton6659585554534844403852.5
Steve Thomas7360525150494848464152.4
Bill Guerin7265615651474141393852.3
Dave Taylor6662605350474544444252.2
Bobby Smith6661575250494644413751.2
Rick Tocchet6358575351474444434251
Shane Doan5757555250494847474250.9
Lanny McDonald6258575453494544383850.8
Pat Verbeek5753525250494645444349.6
John Tonelli6463534948464442403849.6
Rick Martin6557575749484644361849.2
Dave Andreychuk5955505049484443434248.8
Brian Propp5656535149494642403848.7
Kevin Stevens8565514946393834343248.6
John MacLean5654535349454543404048.5
Steve Larmer5959555150424140393948.4
Tom Lysiak5957524947454443413848.2
Owen Nolan6052524947464341413847.6
Jean Pronovost6556504846444241413547.6
Danny Gare6059585352454242262147.4
Simon Gagne6766565451433230272546.9
Vic Hadfield7953484645433936333346.5
Craig Ramsay6357504945434240382746.4
Bill Barber6750494843414141393746.3
Kirk Muller6359564948403835322846.1
J.P. Parise6960464645434140303046.1
Terry O'Reilly6861514846393634332745.6
Wilf Paiement5653535244414039353145.4
Don Luce6059565148423937222145.1
Brenden Morrow5958515048413831302444.4
Rene Robert5954545250463735181844
Reggie Leach7058573937353333323043.6
Fred Stanfield5958525048393431301243
Trevor Linden5654474240393736363442.8
Brian Rolston5550454141403939363442.6
Charlie Simmer5959564745393427241642.4
Clark Gillies5958534737353433262442
Kevin Dineen5150504343373535333141.6
Claude Lemieux5046464539393937343441.5
Bob Nystrom5350434339393736353441.5
Mario Tremblay5249484443403934282841.5
Mel Bridgman5350474039393737362841.3
Ross Lonsberry4842413939383838363439.6
Brian Sutter5747464341414126241639.5
Adam Graves5047454540383430272739.3
Tim Kerr6656564434332827161339.2
Esa Tikkanen6050504438363127241739.2
Wendell Clark4847444443363529282639
Jere Lehtinen5545444139383631272338.9
Bobby Schmautz5746424240373627262338.6
Don Marcotte6148454137363127242038.2
Gregg Sheppard5749454343402923191638
Troy Murray6351413634313028242437.2
Yvon Lambert494846423938342617035.7
Dirk Graham5444393333313131292035.3
Kelly Miller4737373434343130292834.6
Bob Gainey3535343432323126242431.2
Craig MacTavish3835313131272626252429.8
Jan Erixon2423232322171614141319.4

I have also added Glen Murray and Steve Thomas, both players who I knew were much better even-strength producers than is generally credited here. As always, there are qualifiers, provisos and caveats with many of these players, but I think this data is a step forward in terms of dividing the players somewhat by skillset, rather than viewing scoring as a sort of homogenous mass, as we have long done in the ATD.

Well, have at it. I am going to take a break from doing more numbers for now, but anyone who wants to help me by either checking the numbers or running more, feel free to PM me, and I will update the table, as appropriate. Also, please note that these are all numbers from overpass' spreadsheet. I round all the AESP numbers to integers, and this can cause small differences in the calculations.

Again, the formula for the weighting of the seasons is: 18, 19, 20, 19, 18, 17, 16, 15, 14, 13...and then the whole thing divided by 169.

note: I have excluded the following players due to incomplete data: Rod Gilbert, Mats Naslund, B-A Gustafson, John McKenzie, Rick Nash (working on his 10th season now).


Last edited by Sturminator: 02-12-2014 at 02:23 PM.
Sturminator is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
04-20-2013, 04:23 AM
  #2
Sturminator
I voted for Kodos
 
Sturminator's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: West Egg, New York
Country: Ukraine
Posts: 7,386
vCash: 500
Players higher than I'd expected:

- John Leclair
- Luc Robitaille
- Keith Tkachuk
- Vincent Damphousse
- Patrick Marleau
- Glen Murray
- Steve Thomas
- Pat Verbeek
- John MacLean
- Tom Lysiak
- J.P. Parise
- Bob Nystrom

Players lower than I'd expected:

- Pavel Bure
- Michel Goulet
- Brendan Shanahan
- Lanny McDonald
- Rick Martin
- Brian Propp
- Bill Barber
- Reggie Leach
- Fred Stanfield
- Clark Gillies
- Adam Graves
- Tim Kerr

Sturminator is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
04-20-2013, 04:56 AM
  #3
TheDevilMadeMe
Global Moderator
 
TheDevilMadeMe's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Brooklyn
Country: United States
Posts: 39,934
vCash: 500
I'm not really surprised by LeClair's high numbers. I remember overpass posting about how the Legion of Doom was a dominant even strength line, but surprisingly not as impressive on the powerplay as you'd think. This was in reference to Eric Lindros, but I'm not surprised it also applies to John LeClair.

I'm not surprised to see Fred Stanfield so low at even strength - he routinely got fewer accolades than either of his even strength linemates - Johnny Bucyk and Pie McKenzie - and he had to have gotten a ton of points playing the opposite point from Bobby Orr on the power play. Also not surprised to see Clarke Gillies so low at even strength - I know he had a big role on the dominant Islanders power play

I guess I should't be surprised to see Cournoyer so low, as I knew he was a PP specialist early in his career, but I'm still surprised by it.

At first I was surprised to see Andreychuk so far ahead of Kerr, but then I realized that these are per-season numbers, not per-game numbers, so they are merciless towards injury-prone players.

TheDevilMadeMe is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
04-20-2013, 05:01 AM
  #4
TheDevilMadeMe
Global Moderator
 
TheDevilMadeMe's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Brooklyn
Country: United States
Posts: 39,934
vCash: 500
One thing to remember is that adjusted points tend to be overly harsh on 1980s first line players because of the way they are calulated - basically, the majority of the offensive explosion in the 1980s was inflated scoring by lower play players - but the adjusted points are based off league average scoring and punish the stars as much as they punish the lower line players. Seriously, look at the scoring tables - other than Gretzky and later Lemieux, top line players in the 1980s didn't score any more than they did in the 1970s, even as overall league scoring went up.

Adjusted even strength points are not as bad as adjusted points in general, but they still do underrate 1980s first line forwards, while overrating 1980s role players. Yes, Jan Erixon's low numbers should probably be even lower.

TheDevilMadeMe is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
04-20-2013, 05:08 AM
  #5
Hawkman
Moderator
Sharpshooter
 
Hawkman's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 4,506
vCash: 500
Great work Sturm and good points TDMM. This is extremely helpful in something I'm working on for next year.

Hawkman is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
04-20-2013, 05:28 AM
  #6
Sturminator
I voted for Kodos
 
Sturminator's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: West Egg, New York
Country: Ukraine
Posts: 7,386
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Adjusted even strength points are not as bad as adjusted points in general, but they still do underrate 1980s first line forwards, while overrating 1980s role players. Yes, Jan Erixon's low numbers should probably be even lower.
That's a good point about the 1980's, Devil, and something we have to keep in mind. The presentation of these numbers in this way is meant to be a step forward in our attempt to place these players in some sort of context relative to one another; the above is not a statistical utopia, by any means.

Sturminator is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
04-20-2013, 07:12 AM
  #7
Hawkman
Moderator
Sharpshooter
 
Hawkman's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 4,506
vCash: 500
Please delete.


Last edited by Hawkman: 09-15-2013 at 01:55 AM.
Hawkman is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
04-20-2013, 10:37 AM
  #8
Dreakmur
Registered User
 
Dreakmur's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Orillia, Ontario
Country: Canada
Posts: 7,933
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
Players higher than I'd expected:

- John Leclair
- Luc Robitaille
- Keith Tkachuk
- Vincent Damphousse
- Patrick Marleau
- Glen Murray
- Steve Thomas
- Pat Verbeek
- John MacLean
- Tom Lysiak
- J.P. Parise
- Bob Nystrom

Players lower than I'd expected:

- Pavel Bure
- Michel Goulet
- Brendan Shanahan
- Lanny McDonald
- Rick Martin
- Brian Propp
- Bill Barber
- Reggie Leach
- Fred Stanfield
- Clark Gillies
- Adam Graves
- Tim Kerr
Yeah, a lot of those don't match what I thought of most of those guys.

Was surprised to see Demitra as high as he was.

Dreakmur is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
04-20-2013, 12:29 PM
  #9
Sturminator
I voted for Kodos
 
Sturminator's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: West Egg, New York
Country: Ukraine
Posts: 7,386
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dreakmur View Post
Yeah, a lot of those don't match what I thought of most of those guys.

Was surprised to see Demitra as high as he was.
I had thought of Demitra as something more of a powerplay specialist, myself. His is one of the more interesting results. If I were you, I'd try to find a way to use him more often at even strength.

I really like doing this kind of work (and it was work) because it reminds me of how little I really know about all of these players, and that sort of brings back the wonder for me. I feel like a huge ****ing nerd for saying that spending a few hours going through an excel document and hammering out a big table full of data somehow astounds me, but well...I guess I feel that way for a reason.

Sturminator is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
04-21-2013, 12:08 AM
  #10
Hawkman
Moderator
Sharpshooter
 
Hawkman's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 4,506
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
I had thought of Demitra as something more of a powerplay specialist, myself. His is one of the more interesting results. If I were you, I'd try to find a way to use him more often at even strength. ...
Agreed. I admit unadjusted PPG is not an accurate system like AESP, but over a 10 year period Demitra tied Doug Gilmour. http://www.hockey-reference.com/play...oints_per_game

Hawkman is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
04-26-2013, 09:18 PM
  #11
overpass
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 3,571
vCash: 500
I ran the numbers for the best forwards in adjusted even strength points over various five year periods since expansion. The purpose was to examine whether there were any era biases remaining after adjusting for scoring level, and to examine where the numbers differ from traditional ATD valuations.

I included all players who played at least 2.5 seasons out of the 5 year period, and ranked them in $ESP/season.

1971-1975
Rank Player $ESP
1 Phil Esposito 90
2 Ken Hodge 70
3 Jean Ratelle 69
4 Wayne Cashman 66
5 Bobby Clarke 63
6 Rod Gilbert 63
7 Frank Mahovlich 62
8 Stan Mikita 62
9 Marcel Dionne 60
10 Jacques Lemaire 60
20 John Bucyk 55
30 Vic Hadfield 52
40 Derek Sanderson 49
50 Danny Grant 45
75 Gordon "Red" Berenson 39
100 Larry Romanchych 34

1976-1980
Rank Player $ESP
1 Guy Lafleur 91
2 Marcel Dionne 73
3 Bryan Trottier 71
4 Darryl Sittler 70
5 Steve Shutt 68
6 Peter McNab 64
7 Gilbert Perreault 64
8 Mike Bossy 63
9 Jean Ratelle 62
10 Jacques Lemaire 62
20 Rick Martin 53
30 Orest Kindrachuk 50
40 Reggie Leach 48
50 Stan Mikita 45
75 Ric Seiling 40
100 Jack Valiquette 36

1981-1985
Rank Player $ESP
1 Wayne Gretzky 118
2 Mike Bossy 78
3 Jari Kurri 74
4 Peter Stastny 73
5 Michel Goulet 66
6 Marcel Dionne 66
7 Bryan Trottier 65
8 Dale Hawerchuk 61
9 Glenn Anderson 60
10 Denis Savard 59
20 Kent Nilsson 53
30 Lanny Mcdonald 50
40 Real Cloutier 48
50 Paul Maclean 46
75 Bengt-Ake Gustafsson 42
100 Greg Malone 38

1986-1990
Rank Player $ESP
1 Wayne Gretzky 113
2 Mario Lemieux 85
3 Steve Yzerman 71
4 Jari Kurri 67
5 Mark Messier 65
6 Luc Robitaille 65
7 Denis Savard 61
8 Bernie Nicholls 61
9 Dino Ciccarelli 58
10 Dale Hawerchuk 57
20 Doug Gilmour 52
30 Kevin Dineen 49
40 Tom Fergus 48
50 Jim Peplinski 46
75 Pat Verbeek 43
100 Sylvain Turgeon 39

1991-1995
Rank Player $ESP
1 Wayne Gretzky 73
2 Adam Oates 73
3 Jaromir Jagr 72
4 Cam Neely 69
5 Steve Yzerman 68
6 Alexei Zhamnov 68
7 Mark Recchi 67
8 Joe Sakic 67
9 Teemu Selanne 67
10 Luc Robitaille 66
20 Theoren Fleury 61
30 Jeremy Roenick 55
40 Valeri Zelepukin 51
50 Mike Ridley 49
75 Stephan Lebeau 45
100 John Druce 40

1996-2000
Rank Player $ESP
1 Jaromir Jagr 104
2 Eric Lindros 90
3 Teemu Selanne 82
4 John Leclair 80
5 Paul Kariya 78
6 Peter Forsberg 77
7 Pavel Bure 77
8 Pierre Turgeon 74
9 Mats Sundin 72
10 Joe Sakic 72
20 Alexander Mogilny 64
30 Gary Roberts 58
40 Vincent Damphousse 53
50 Daniel Alfredsson 50
75 Jason Arnott 46
100 Niklas Sundstrom 43

2001-2006
Rank Player $ESP
1 Peter Forsberg 84
2 Jaromir Jagr 83
3 Joe Thornton 83
4 Joe Sakic 73
5 Alex Tanguay 70
6 Patrik Elias 69
7 Zigmund Palffy 68
8 Pavol Demitra 68
9 Markus Naslund 67
10 Glen Murray 66
20 Ilya Kovalchuk 62
30 Saku Koivu 60
40 Alexei Yashin 56
50 Keith Primeau 53
75 Radek Dvorak 49
100 Rod Brind'Amour 45

2007-2011
Rank Player $ESP
1 Sidney Crosby 87
2 Alex Ovechkin 85
3 Jarome Iginla 74
4 Evgeni Malkin 73
5 Marian Gaborik 72
6 Daniel Sedin 72
7 Henrik Sedin 72
8 Martin St. Louis 69
9 Pavel Datsyuk 69
10 Jason Spezza 67
20 Zach Parise 61
30 Marc Savard 58
40 Steven Stamkos 56
50 Olli Jokinen 53
75 Phil Kessel 49
100 Andrew Ladd 45

Looking at the different eras, there appears to be a sharp break in traditional ATD perception and adjusted even strength scoring in the mid-90s. 8 players from the 1996-2000 period had higher numbers than anyone from the 1991-1995 period - but the 1991-1995 group was drafted higher on average.

And if we look at the top 5-year periods pre-1995 and post-1995, the difference in the numbers vs traditional ATD perception is striking.

Pre-1995
Rank Player $ESP Years
1 Wayne Gretzky 118 1981-1985
2 Wayne Gretzky 113 1986-1990
3 Guy Lafleur 91 1976-1980
4 Phil Esposito 90 1971-1975
5 Mario Lemieux 85 1986-1990
6 Mike Bossy 78 1981-1985
7 Jari Kurri 74 1981-1985
8 Peter Stastny 73 1981-1985
9 Wayne Gretzky 73 1991-1995
10 Marcel Dionne 73 1976-1980
11 Adam Oates 73 1991-1995
12 Jaromir Jagr 72 1991-1995
13 Steve Yzerman 71 1986-1990
14 Bryan Trottier 71 1976-1980
15 Ken Hodge 70 1971-1975
16 Darryl Sittler 70 1976-1980
17 Cam Neely 69 1991-1995
18 Jean Ratelle 69 1971-1975
19 Steve Yzerman 68 1991-1995
20 Steve Shutt 68 1976-1980

Post-1995
Rank Player $ESP Years
1 Jaromir Jagr 104 1996-2000
2 Eric Lindros 90 1996-2000
3 Sidney Crosby 87 2007-2011
4 Alex Ovechkin 85 2007-2011
5 Peter Forsberg 84 2001-2006
6 Jaromir Jagr 83 2001-2006
7 Joe Thornton 83 2001-2006
8 Teemu Selanne 82 1996-2000
9 John Leclair 80 1996-2000
10 Paul Kariya 78 1996-2000
11 Peter Forsberg 77 1996-2000
12 Pavel Bure 77 1996-2000
13 Pierre Turgeon 74 1996-2000
14 Jarome Iginla 74 2007-2011
15 Evgeni Malkin 73 2007-2011
16 Joe Sakic 73 2001-2006
17 Marian Gaborik 72 2007-2011
18 Mats Sundin 72 1996-2000
19 Daniel Sedin 72 2007-2011
20 Joe Sakic 72 1996-2000

After the top 5, the post-1995 group's numbers are better all the way down the list. The median draft position for the pre-1995 group is Steve Yzerman at 39. The median draft position for the post-1995 group is midway between Jarome Iginla (111) and Eric Lindros (116).

So, if you are going to use adjusted even strength points, be aware that for post-1995 players the results differ quite a bit from traditional ATD standards.

overpass is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
04-26-2013, 09:38 PM
  #12
overpass
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 3,571
vCash: 500
Actually, the change appears to have started already in the 1991-1995 period. See Hawerchuk at #10 for 1986-1990 with 57 $ESP/S, and Robitaille at #10 for 1991-1995 with 66 $ESP/S.

overpass is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
04-27-2013, 04:21 AM
  #13
Czech Your Math
Registered User
 
Czech Your Math's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: bohemia
Country: Czech_ Republic
Posts: 3,626
vCash: 500
What is the methodology being used?

I'm particularly curious as to how Crosby ends up with a higher average than Ovechkin for the period 2007-2011.

Czech Your Math is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
04-27-2013, 07:17 AM
  #14
overpass
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 3,571
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Czech Your Math View Post
What is the methodology being used?

I'm particularly curious as to how Crosby ends up with a higher average than Ovechkin for the period 2007-2011.
1. Adjust all seasonal ESP (and ESG, ESA) totals to a scoring level of 200 ESG per team per season.

2. For the five year period, for each forward, 1. find the sum of adjusted ESP, 2. find the sum of games played (expressed as fractions of a season played), 3. Divide result from 1 by result from 2.

Sidney Crosby, 2006-07 through 2010-11
Year Seasons ESP LgESG $ESP $ESP/S
2006-07 0.96 59 157 75 78
2007-08 0.65 44 153 58 89
2008-09 0.94 62 161 77 82
2009-10 0.99 72 165 87 88
2010-11 0.50 46 165 56 112
2007-2011 4.04 283 160 353 87

Alex Ovechkin, 2006-07 through 2010-11
Year Seasons ESP LgESG $ESP $ESP/S
2006-07 1.00 55 157 70 70
2007-08 1.00 75 153 98 98
2008-09 0.96 63 161 78 81
2009-10 0.88 73 165 88 101
2010-11 0.96 61 165 74 77
2007-2011 4.80 327 160 409 85

The scoring level adjustment has very little effect on this result. Looking at unadjusted even strength points, Crosby had 283 in 331 GP over this time period (0.85 ESP/G) and Ovechkin had 327 in 394 GP (0.83 ESP/G).

overpass is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
04-27-2013, 07:31 AM
  #15
Hawkman
Moderator
Sharpshooter
 
Hawkman's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 4,506
vCash: 500
Please delete.


Last edited by Hawkman: 09-15-2013 at 01:56 AM.
Hawkman is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
04-27-2013, 08:45 AM
  #16
BraveCanadian
Registered User
 
BraveCanadian's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Country: Canada
Posts: 7,981
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by overpass View Post
The scoring level adjustment has very little effect on this result. Looking at unadjusted even strength points, Crosby had 283 in 331 GP over this time period (0.85 ESP/G) and Ovechkin had 327 in 394 GP (0.83 ESP/G).
I guess it wasn't clear that it was a per season rate and not a per season actual.

BraveCanadian is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
04-27-2013, 03:38 PM
  #17
TheDevilMadeMe
Global Moderator
 
TheDevilMadeMe's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Brooklyn
Country: United States
Posts: 39,934
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by overpass View Post
Actually, the change appears to have started already in the 1991-1995 period. See Hawerchuk at #10 for 1986-1990 with 57 $ESP/S, and Robitaille at #10 for 1991-1995 with 66 $ESP/S.
Interesting. That pretty much exactly corresponds to the European influx to to NHL in the early 90s, but in increase in adjusted scoring among top players is way too high to be entirely accounted for by an increase in scoring talent.

TheDevilMadeMe is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
08-14-2013, 08:34 PM
  #18
Doctor No
Mod Supervisor
Retired?
 
Doctor No's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 23,696
vCash: 500
Bringing this one to the surface, now that it's been moved to "By The Numbers".

Doctor No is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
08-14-2013, 09:50 PM
  #19
tombombadil
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: West Kelowna, Canada
Country: Canada
Posts: 1,030
vCash: 500
more depth = less separation.

good thread. I wish i understood more of it.

tombombadil is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
08-17-2013, 05:29 PM
  #20
Czech Your Math
Registered User
 
Czech Your Math's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: bohemia
Country: Czech_ Republic
Posts: 3,626
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by overpass View Post
Pre-1995
Rank Player $ESP Years
1 Wayne Gretzky 118 1981-1985
2 Wayne Gretzky 113 1986-1990
3 Guy Lafleur 91 1976-1980
4 Phil Esposito 90 1971-1975
5 Mario Lemieux 85 1986-1990
6 Mike Bossy 78 1981-1985
7 Jari Kurri 74 1981-1985
8 Peter Stastny 73 1981-1985
9 Wayne Gretzky 73 1991-1995
10 Marcel Dionne 73 1976-1980
11 Adam Oates 73 1991-1995
12 Jaromir Jagr 72 1991-1995
13 Steve Yzerman 71 1986-1990
14 Bryan Trottier 71 1976-1980
15 Ken Hodge 70 1971-1975
16 Darryl Sittler 70 1976-1980
17 Cam Neely 69 1991-1995
18 Jean Ratelle 69 1971-1975
19 Steve Yzerman 68 1991-1995
20 Steve Shutt 68 1976-1980

Post-1995
Rank Player $ESP Years
1 Jaromir Jagr 104 1996-2000
2 Eric Lindros 90 1996-2000
3 Sidney Crosby 87 2007-2011
4 Alex Ovechkin 85 2007-2011
5 Peter Forsberg 84 2001-2006
6 Jaromir Jagr 83 2001-2006
7 Joe Thornton 83 2001-2006
8 Teemu Selanne 82 1996-2000
9 John Leclair 80 1996-2000
10 Paul Kariya 78 1996-2000
11 Peter Forsberg 77 1996-2000
12 Pavel Bure 77 1996-2000
13 Pierre Turgeon 74 1996-2000
14 Jarome Iginla 74 2007-2011
15 Evgeni Malkin 73 2007-2011
16 Joe Sakic 73 2001-2006
17 Marian Gaborik 72 2007-2011
18 Mats Sundin 72 1996-2000
19 Daniel Sedin 72 2007-2011
20 Joe Sakic 72 1996-2000

After the top 5, the post-1995 group's numbers are better all the way down the list. The median draft position for the pre-1995 group is Steve Yzerman at 39. The median draft position for the post-1995 group is midway between Jarome Iginla (111) and Eric Lindros (116).

So, if you are going to use adjusted even strength points, be aware that for post-1995 players the results differ quite a bit from traditional ATD standards.
If we take out peak Gretzky and the non-North Americans:

Pre-1995
Rank Player $ESP Years
1 Guy Lafleur 91 1976-1980
2 Phil Esposito 90 1971-1975
3 Mario Lemieux 85 1986-1990
4 Mike Bossy 78 1981-1985
5 Wayne Gretzky 73 1991-1995
6 Marcel Dionne 73 1976-1980
7 Adam Oates 73 1991-1995
8 Steve Yzerman 71 1986-1990
9 Bryan Trottier 71 1976-1980

Post-1995
Rank Player $ESP Years
1 Eric Lindros 90 1996-2000
2 Sidney Crosby 87 2007-2011
3 Joe Thornton 83 2001-2006
4 John Leclair 80 1996-2000
5 Paul Kariya 78 1996-2000
6 Pierre Turgeon 74 1996-2000
7 Jarome Iginla 74 2007-2011
8 Joe Sakic 73 2001-2006
9 Joe Sakic 72 1996-2000

I have no trouble believing Lindros and Crosby were as good or better on a per-game even strength basis than Lafleur and Esposito were.

It's been shown that first liners' proportion of (total and) ES points changed from the 80s to more recent seasons, but the reasons for such change are important. When players started flocking in droves from overseas, the distribution of forward talent became more top-loaded than it had been previously. It hasn't been shown that it became "easier" for first liners to score points the past two decades, only that they scored a higher proportion than their 80s counterparts.

Czech Your Math is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
08-19-2013, 07:09 PM
  #21
Hardyvan123
tweet@HardyintheWack
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: Vancouver
Country: Canada
Posts: 12,587
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by overpass View Post
I ran the numbers for the best forwards in adjusted even strength points over various five year periods since expansion. The purpose was to examine whether there were any era biases remaining after adjusting for scoring level, and to examine where the numbers differ from traditional ATD valuations.

I included all players who played at least 2.5 seasons out of the 5 year period, and ranked them in $ESP/season.

1971-1975
Rank Player $ESP
1 Phil Esposito 90
2 Ken Hodge 70
3 Jean Ratelle 69
4 Wayne Cashman 66
5 Bobby Clarke 63
6 Rod Gilbert 63
7 Frank Mahovlich 62
8 Stan Mikita 62
9 Marcel Dionne 60
10 Jacques Lemaire 60
20 John Bucyk 55
30 Vic Hadfield 52
40 Derek Sanderson 49
50 Danny Grant 45
75 Gordon "Red" Berenson 39
100 Larry Romanchych 34

1976-1980
Rank Player $ESP
1 Guy Lafleur 91
2 Marcel Dionne 73
3 Bryan Trottier 71
4 Darryl Sittler 70
5 Steve Shutt 68
6 Peter McNab 64
7 Gilbert Perreault 64
8 Mike Bossy 63
9 Jean Ratelle 62
10 Jacques Lemaire 62
20 Rick Martin 53
30 Orest Kindrachuk 50
40 Reggie Leach 48
50 Stan Mikita 45
75 Ric Seiling 40
100 Jack Valiquette 36

1981-1985
Rank Player $ESP
1 Wayne Gretzky 118
2 Mike Bossy 78
3 Jari Kurri 74
4 Peter Stastny 73
5 Michel Goulet 66
6 Marcel Dionne 66
7 Bryan Trottier 65
8 Dale Hawerchuk 61
9 Glenn Anderson 60
10 Denis Savard 59
20 Kent Nilsson 53
30 Lanny Mcdonald 50
40 Real Cloutier 48
50 Paul Maclean 46
75 Bengt-Ake Gustafsson 42
100 Greg Malone 38

1986-1990
Rank Player $ESP
1 Wayne Gretzky 113
2 Mario Lemieux 85
3 Steve Yzerman 71
4 Jari Kurri 67
5 Mark Messier 65
6 Luc Robitaille 65
7 Denis Savard 61
8 Bernie Nicholls 61
9 Dino Ciccarelli 58
10 Dale Hawerchuk 57
20 Doug Gilmour 52
30 Kevin Dineen 49
40 Tom Fergus 48
50 Jim Peplinski 46
75 Pat Verbeek 43
100 Sylvain Turgeon 39

1991-1995
Rank Player $ESP
1 Wayne Gretzky 73
2 Adam Oates 73
3 Jaromir Jagr 72
4 Cam Neely 69
5 Steve Yzerman 68
6 Alexei Zhamnov 68
7 Mark Recchi 67
8 Joe Sakic 67
9 Teemu Selanne 67
10 Luc Robitaille 66
20 Theoren Fleury 61
30 Jeremy Roenick 55
40 Valeri Zelepukin 51
50 Mike Ridley 49
75 Stephan Lebeau 45
100 John Druce 40

1996-2000
Rank Player $ESP
1 Jaromir Jagr 104
2 Eric Lindros 90
3 Teemu Selanne 82
4 John Leclair 80
5 Paul Kariya 78
6 Peter Forsberg 77
7 Pavel Bure 77
8 Pierre Turgeon 74
9 Mats Sundin 72
10 Joe Sakic 72
20 Alexander Mogilny 64
30 Gary Roberts 58
40 Vincent Damphousse 53
50 Daniel Alfredsson 50
75 Jason Arnott 46
100 Niklas Sundstrom 43

2001-2006
Rank Player $ESP
1 Peter Forsberg 84
2 Jaromir Jagr 83
3 Joe Thornton 83
4 Joe Sakic 73
5 Alex Tanguay 70
6 Patrik Elias 69
7 Zigmund Palffy 68
8 Pavol Demitra 68
9 Markus Naslund 67
10 Glen Murray 66
20 Ilya Kovalchuk 62
30 Saku Koivu 60
40 Alexei Yashin 56
50 Keith Primeau 53
75 Radek Dvorak 49
100 Rod Brind'Amour 45

2007-2011
Rank Player $ESP
1 Sidney Crosby 87
2 Alex Ovechkin 85
3 Jarome Iginla 74
4 Evgeni Malkin 73
5 Marian Gaborik 72
6 Daniel Sedin 72
7 Henrik Sedin 72
8 Martin St. Louis 69
9 Pavel Datsyuk 69
10 Jason Spezza 67
20 Zach Parise 61
30 Marc Savard 58
40 Steven Stamkos 56
50 Olli Jokinen 53
75 Phil Kessel 49
100 Andrew Ladd 45

Looking at the different eras, there appears to be a sharp break in traditional ATD perception and adjusted even strength scoring in the mid-90s. 8 players from the 1996-2000 period had higher numbers than anyone from the 1991-1995 period - but the 1991-1995 group was drafted higher on average.

And if we look at the top 5-year periods pre-1995 and post-1995, the difference in the numbers vs traditional ATD perception is striking.

Pre-1995
Rank Player $ESP Years
1 Wayne Gretzky 118 1981-1985
2 Wayne Gretzky 113 1986-1990
3 Guy Lafleur 91 1976-1980
4 Phil Esposito 90 1971-1975
5 Mario Lemieux 85 1986-1990
6 Mike Bossy 78 1981-1985
7 Jari Kurri 74 1981-1985
8 Peter Stastny 73 1981-1985
9 Wayne Gretzky 73 1991-1995
10 Marcel Dionne 73 1976-1980
11 Adam Oates 73 1991-1995
12 Jaromir Jagr 72 1991-1995
13 Steve Yzerman 71 1986-1990
14 Bryan Trottier 71 1976-1980
15 Ken Hodge 70 1971-1975
16 Darryl Sittler 70 1976-1980
17 Cam Neely 69 1991-1995
18 Jean Ratelle 69 1971-1975
19 Steve Yzerman 68 1991-1995
20 Steve Shutt 68 1976-1980

Post-1995
Rank Player $ESP Years
1 Jaromir Jagr 104 1996-2000
2 Eric Lindros 90 1996-2000
3 Sidney Crosby 87 2007-2011
4 Alex Ovechkin 85 2007-2011
5 Peter Forsberg 84 2001-2006
6 Jaromir Jagr 83 2001-2006
7 Joe Thornton 83 2001-2006
8 Teemu Selanne 82 1996-2000
9 John Leclair 80 1996-2000
10 Paul Kariya 78 1996-2000
11 Peter Forsberg 77 1996-2000
12 Pavel Bure 77 1996-2000
13 Pierre Turgeon 74 1996-2000
14 Jarome Iginla 74 2007-2011
15 Evgeni Malkin 73 2007-2011
16 Joe Sakic 73 2001-2006
17 Marian Gaborik 72 2007-2011
18 Mats Sundin 72 1996-2000
19 Daniel Sedin 72 2007-2011
20 Joe Sakic 72 1996-2000

After the top 5, the post-1995 group's numbers are better all the way down the list. The median draft position for the pre-1995 group is Steve Yzerman at 39. The median draft position for the post-1995 group is midway between Jarome Iginla (111) and Eric Lindros (116).

So, if you are going to use adjusted even strength points, be aware that for post-1995 players the results differ quite a bit from traditional ATD standards.
Could the increased number of teams account for part of the better numbers? ie more top line positions available than previously?

Also as a 2nd point the role of Dmen has become more defensive 1st and less offensive, at least at ES, could some of the previous ES points from those Dmen be going to top forwards on each team?

I don't know the answers to these questions but I did notice that the number and frequency of Dmen in top 50 scoring from year to year went down drastically during Lidstroms career (on an old Bourque/Lidstrom thread).

It seems plausible though.

Hardyvan123 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
08-19-2013, 10:54 PM
  #22
#66
Registered User
 
#66's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Country: United States
Posts: 10,307
vCash: 500
Where are you guys finding PP assist totals?

Another thing to remember about current players is that they play less mins a game that the older players. Top player now, like Sid and Ovy, play about 20-23 mins per game as opposed to Gretz and Lemieux's 30-35 min nights. Nevermind Espo playing 40.

#66 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
08-19-2013, 11:25 PM
  #23
TheDevilMadeMe
Global Moderator
 
TheDevilMadeMe's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Brooklyn
Country: United States
Posts: 39,934
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by #66 View Post
Where are you guys finding PP assist totals?
There are spreadsheets floating around. This should link to a good one: http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh....php?t=1278617 I believe overpass's spreadsheet is the source for the adjusted numbers in the OP here.

I think hockey-reference.com finally started showing PP assists, too.

Quote:
Another thing to remember about current players is that they play less mins a game that the older players. Top player now, like Sid and Ovy, play about 20-23 mins per game as opposed to Gretz and Lemieux's 30-35 min nights. Nevermind Espo playing 40.
Those numbers are probably the max that Gretzky/Lemieux/Espo played. Their average minutes per game were almost certainly much lower.


Last edited by TheDevilMadeMe: 08-19-2013 at 11:33 PM.
TheDevilMadeMe is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
08-21-2013, 05:25 AM
  #24
#66
Registered User
 
#66's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Country: United States
Posts: 10,307
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
There are spreadsheets floating around. This should link to a good one: http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh....php?t=1278617 I believe overpass's spreadsheet is the source for the adjusted numbers in the OP here.

I think hockey-reference.com finally started showing PP assists, too.



Those numbers are probably the max that Gretzky/Lemieux/Espo played. Their average minutes per game were almost certainly much lower.
Thanks for the link.

As someone who watch a lot of 80's Gretz and Lemieux, that was about average for them. The game was more about 3 lines and played at a slower pace back then. A lot of the stars played around 25-30 mins a night.

#66 is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Forum Jump


Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 08:39 AM.

monitoring_string = "e4251c93e2ba248d29da988d93bf5144"
Contact Us - HFBoards - Archive - Privacy Statement - Terms of Use - Advertise - Top - AdChoices

vBulletin Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
HFBoards.com is a property of CraveOnline Media, LLC, an Evolve Media, LLC company. 2014 All Rights Reserved.