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 By The Numbers Hockey Analytics... the Final Frontier. Explore strange new worlds, to seek out new algorithms, to boldly go where no one has gone before.

 04-22-2017, 05:11 PM #26 Chrisinroch Registered User     Join Date: Jan 2013 Location: Vouvray Country: Posts: 857 vCash: 500 I guess I have to point the obvious fact out...You are using a public poll to predict the outcome of a sporting event. If 60% of people predict a snowy winter, it doesn't mean that there is a 60% chance of a snowy winter.
04-22-2017, 05:21 PM
#27
Doctor No
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Quote:
 Originally Posted by Chrisinroch You are using a public poll to predict the outcome of a sporting event.
I am?

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2016-17 NHL Goaltending Performances by Team: http://hockeygoalies.org/bio/nhl/logs/NHL2016.html

04-22-2017, 06:04 PM
#28
Sojourn
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Where's the kaboom?

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Quote:
 Originally Posted by Chrisinroch I guess I have to point the obvious fact out...You are using a public poll to predict the outcome of a sporting event. If 60% of people predict a snowy winter, it doesn't mean that there is a 60% chance of a snowy winter.
Did you read the first post? He straight up said he was using a spaced repetition algorithm. I think if you look at the type of data he's been using in the past, public polling opinions are uh... not involved.

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You're a curious one, aren't you?

Last edited by Sojourn: 04-22-2017 at 06:14 PM.

04-23-2017, 09:35 PM
#29
Doctor No
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Weighted by probability, the straight SRS algorithm got just over four series correct:

 Winner Prob NYR 54.9% OTT 40.4% WAS 82.3% PIT 48.4% NAS 41.3% STL 29.5% ANA 61.0% EDM 58.8% TOTAL 4.2 series

I think we all agree that we should be doing better than this.

04-23-2017, 09:40 PM
#30
Doctor No
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Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 6,501
vCash: 50
So...on to round two:

OutcomeProb
STL in 4 games5.8%
STL in 5 games13.5%
STL in 6 games13.8%
STL in 7 games16.9%
NAS in 7 games14.3%
NAS in 6 games17.7%
NAS in 5 games11.6%
NAS in 4 games6.5%
STL wins49.9%
NAS wins50.1%

OutcomeProb
ANA in 4 games5.6%
ANA in 5 games13.1%
ANA in 6 games13.5%
ANA in 7 games17.0%
EDM in 7 games14.2%
EDM in 6 games18.2%
EDM in 5 games11.7%
EDM in 4 games6.6%
ANA wins49.2%
EDM wins50.8%

Well, the algorithm won't be much help in the West...

OutcomeProb
OTT in 4 games2.8%
OTT in 5 games7.7%
OTT in 6 games9.1%
OTT in 7 games13.5%
NYR in 7 games15.0%
NYR in 6 games22.4%
NYR in 5 games17.8%
NYR in 4 games11.8%
OTT wins33.1%
NYR wins66.9%

OutcomeProb
WAS in 4 games9.0%
WAS in 5 games18.3%
WAS in 6 games17.0%
WAS in 7 games18.3%
PIT in 7 games12.2%
PIT in 6 games13.6%
PIT in 5 games7.8%
PIT in 4 games3.9%
WAS wins62.5%
PIT wins37.5%

 04-24-2017, 09:44 PM #31 morehockeystats Registered User   Join Date: Dec 2016 Country: Posts: 176 vCash: 500 Teams Elo based prediction for round 2: 1st round success: 5/8. 1st round match-by-match player Elo-based prediction success: 27/42 The latter one is published before each game on my twitter... @morehockeystats
04-27-2017, 08:31 AM
#32
Doctor No
HFB Partner

Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 6,501
vCash: 50
Updates after games of April 26:

OutcomeProb
STL in 5 games5.5%
STL in 6 games10.3%
STL in 7 games16.2%
NAS in 7 games13.7%
NAS in 6 games21.4%
NAS in 5 games18.2%
NAS in 4 games14.7%
STL wins32.0%
NAS wins68.0%

OutcomeProb
ANA in 5 games5.2%
ANA in 6 games9.7%
ANA in 7 games15.5%
EDM in 7 games13.5%
EDM in 6 games22.0%
EDM in 5 games18.7%
EDM in 4 games15.4%
ANA wins30.4%
EDM wins69.6%

Yesterday, 01:10 PM
#33
Doctor No
HFB Partner

Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 6,501
vCash: 50
Updates after games of April 27:

OutcomeProb
OTT in 4 games6.2%
OTT in 5 games13.8%
OTT in 6 games12.9%
OTT in 7 games16.6%
NYR in 7 games18.1%
NYR in 6 games21.1%
NYR in 5 games11.4%
OTT wins49.5%
NYR wins50.5%

OutcomeProb
WAS in 5 games8.6%
WAS in 6 games14.5%
WAS in 7 games19.8%
PIT in 7 games13.2%
PIT in 6 games19.1%
PIT in 5 games14.3%
PIT in 4 games10.4%
WAS wins43.0%
PIT wins57.0%

Today, 10:35 AM
#34
Doctor No
HFB Partner

Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 6,501
vCash: 50
Updates after games of April 28:

OutcomeProb
STL in 5 games10.3%
STL in 6 games15.5%
STL in 7 games20.4%
NAS in 7 games17.2%
NAS in 6 games22.3%
NAS in 5 games14.3%
STL wins46.2%
NAS wins53.8%

OutcomeProb
ANA in 6 games3.9%
ANA in 7 games10.6%
EDM in 7 games9.2%
EDM in 6 games19.8%
EDM in 5 games22.5%
EDM in 4 games33.9%
ANA wins14.5%
EDM wins85.5%

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