That's a great point. I think Adam is a fantastic hockey player. Obviously his size is a huge asset, and he uses it well to. He's a clean but explosive checker and a real force on the wall.
His skating stride is also exceptional. Great knee bend for a big guy who has explosive first step acceleration and a long smooth stride.
He is also a character kid with a proven pedigree - an older brother who has been a big success in the WHL and comes from a first class family.
With his experience playing on arguably Western Canada's #1 team playing with some of the best players in this age group, and already having WHL size, he's one of safer first round bets a GM can make.
Where Adam could improve, as you correctly cited, is in his work ethic. His backcheck is almost non-existent most of the time. Check out this 21 minute Scouting Reel video on Adam and you will see he almost immediately starts coasting when the puck goes the other way.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mjYV0YhV4FA
That said, with Adam's tremendous upside in so many other areas, that's something that can be worked on.
The more interesting discussion on this, is how much of an impact it has on a players draft value, which team they play on.
For example, Adam does play on Western Canada's #1 squad, and one of the top teams, frankly, on the continent in this age group. He's the second line center behind Matthew Barzal, who many will argue is the best player in the age group. A lot of times, Adam is out there facing the other teams weaker lines. Or, he's on the power play. He gets his share of points and he contributes to his teams outstanding success. Add in all his upside and it's easy to ignore a laxidaisical backcheck.
However, what if Adam played on the Interlake Lightning AAA team from Selkirk, Manitoba. He's now the starting center and matched up with opponents top guns. Say his team struggles to win 25% of their games in one of Western Canada's softer leagues. All of the sudden that lazy backcheck stands out as an issue. Is he still a first round prospect?
Compare Adam, for example, to a kid like Terrel Draude. They are both blessed with size and they both can find the back of the net. There is an argument to made that Draude must carry his team, while Adam does not. If the two players switch teams, does Draude's stock rise as the second line center behind Barzal? Can Musil carry Draude's load?
One of the blogs had an article up recently about first round busts, and late round surprises. My belief is that one of the things that contributes to players getting over-valued in the draft is over-exposure.
Certainly, no team has enjoyed as much exposure as Burnaby (rightfully so, by the way), but when you combine that success with the marketing efforts of the player reps, that can certainly lead to an over-valuation of it's players in this years draft.
If you list Burnaby's top players, it would look something like this;
1.) Barzal
2.) Szeto
3.) Musil
4.) McBride
5.) Shultz
6.) Ronning
7.) Holowko
A lot of those kids are heavily marketed, and if you believe the hype being pushed by their representatives, as many as 5 or 6 them are being touted as first rounders.
Good players, to be sure, each and every one, but for my money, there is no more than 2 first rounders in the bunch. Way too many great players out there, who aren't as heavily marketed, and playing on teams that don't get the type of exposure or enjoy the type of success that Burnaby has.
After Barzal, I would look to Soy, Gawdin or Kawaguchi in BC before I went to a second Burnaby forward, (although Szeto has some mad skillz and hockey sense). And that's just in BC. There is about a dozen other forwards after that in different regions before I go back to the Burnaby well.
However, marketing and exposure are powerful things. As is the benefit of playing on the second line of a powerhouse team and being pretty decent yourself. Those are some of the reasons we have a steady supply of first round busts and late round suprises.
After that rant though - Adam Musil's potential is unlimited. He's a great looking hockey player and certainly looks like a can't-miss prospect.
