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Old
03-30-2017, 10:19 AM
  #126
b1e9a8r5s
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Panik continues to impress, but I still say 1 year deal with a raise and see him do it again and revaluate.

In all honesty I doubt Panik is on the Hawks beyond next year. He will probably have earned a contract more than the Hawks can afford to pay him.

What Panik is worth and what he is worth to the Hawks in their cap situation are two different things.

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03-30-2017, 10:29 AM
  #127
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Originally Posted by Hawkaholic View Post
Panik has been great this year, and no, it's not because his SH% is high, it's because he is playing great hockey. He is a great compliment to Toews, and has a ton of skill. Who's to say he won't get better because he is 26? There have been players that have got better at older ages, although it's not a high number.

I would be more than willing to give him 2.5 or so on a multi year contract.

No one gives a **** about your stupid stats JD.
Honestly who knows what Panik will get. This is a weird situation given that he's 26 and has done nothing at the NHL level until now. He's arbitration eligible so he could go to arbitration, however what does the arbitrator rule on? I mean you can't only look at this season alone when determining his value. If you factor age, history and career stats he's really only a $1.5M player.. I mean his current salary is 875k, his's qualifying offer would be $918,750.

The real factors that determine his value are weather or not he gets a an offer sheet and/or if he rejects Bowman's offer and chooses arbitration.

Bowman could offer Panik a 1-year 1.75M contract and if he has another good season then they can talk about 3M+ long term contracts.

IMO, despite how great Panik has been this season there is really zero reason to throw 2.5-3 per + at him unless he gets an offer sheet or he is awarded it via arbitration.

If I was Bowman my initial offer for Panik would be a 1 year one-way deal at $1.75 per with a full NMC.

Then, next season if he can demonstrate this season wasn't a flash in the pan I would discuss a long term deal. 3.5+ per.

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Old
03-30-2017, 12:47 PM
  #128
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Originally Posted by Marotte Marauder View Post
Not only is your reliance on the stats wrong but your stats are wrong. Maybe you work for NOAA.

In your free time work up a thesis on how Panik has doubled his career high in assists. Is it more good luck? Good luck on the part of his linemates? Total random outlier?

Couldn't be because he has gotten better with better linemates, more playing time and more confidence now could it?

Remember, the cart goes behind the horse, this might help you understand how stats MAY help you.

....are you seriously just looking at raw shot and point totals without accounting for games played? Accounting for TOI (which is a step better than GP), his shot and attempt rates are right in line with his career averages. Towards the high end, but below his career highs in 2013. His point totals prorated over 82 games land between 20-30 points.

His sh%, goals and assists are all at career highs, while the controllable stats (ie, output towards the net) have remained consistent. Which means he's pretty much doing the same things he's always done, at the same rate he's done them, just getting rewarded more frequently this year than in the past.

As far as assists go, that's certainly partly do to playing consistently with talent, and also due to Osh% or on-ice shooting percentage (the average sh% of all Blackhawks on the ice when he's on the ice). This obviously isn't controllable, he can't force pucks shot by other players into the net by 'will' or 'confidence' or such nonsense, any more than those players can control their own sh%. If they could, you really think Toews would choose to shoot at 5% for half the season?

Giving Panik over 2 million based on a single, statistically anomalous season is a big gamble.

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03-30-2017, 04:01 PM
  #129
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If you can't discuss things with civility don't discuss them.

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03-30-2017, 04:41 PM
  #130
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If you can't discuss things with civility don't discuss them.
Civility in the Hawks board? Come on now lol

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Old
03-30-2017, 05:11 PM
  #131
Marotte Marauder
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Originally Posted by JaegerDice View Post
....are you seriously just looking at raw shot and point totals without accounting for games played? Accounting for TOI (which is a step better than GP), his shot and attempt rates are right in line with his career averages. Towards the high end, but below his career highs in 2013. His point totals prorated over 82 games land between 20-30 points.

His sh%, goals and assists are all at career highs, while the controllable stats (ie, output towards the net) have remained consistent. Which means he's pretty much doing the same things he's always done, at the same rate he's done them, just getting rewarded more frequently this year than in the past.

As far as assists go, that's certainly partly do to playing consistently with talent, and also due to Osh% or on-ice shooting percentage (the average sh% of all Blackhawks on the ice when he's on the ice). This obviously isn't controllable, he can't force pucks shot by other players into the net by 'will' or 'confidence' or such nonsense, any more than those players can control their own sh%. If they could, you really think Toews would choose to shoot at 5% for half the season?

Giving Panik over 2 million based on a single, statistically anomalous season is a big gamble.
Panik was in and out of the NHL for 3 of the 4 years prior to joining the Hawks. To think he is playing, shooting or anything the same now as then is just ridiculous.

As to prorating his TOI or games played, there is a reason he didn't play 82 games in those prior seasons. HE WASN'T GOOD ENOUGH.

For simplicity sake do think Panik has the same shooting % (luck in your words) when shooting in the slot like the Schmaltz feed or coming down the off wing with no screen and 45 feet out? If you consider them the same then why is all defense predicated on protecting the house?

The difference in those shots is what you are missing while crunching the numbers. In the past he was certainly getting the quality opportunities as he is now, simple enough?

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03-30-2017, 05:47 PM
  #132
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It's not a big gamble to give Panik 2 to 2.5 for 2-3 years. A big gamble is paying David Clarkson 6m per after never putting up 40 points or signing Horton to a long term deal when he had major concussion issues. Those were big gambles. Signing Panik to a 3 year deal for <2.5m is a calculated gamble based on the assumption he's a 20 goal scorer, which I don't see how he won't be consistently going forward in this lineup.

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03-30-2017, 05:58 PM
  #133
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Marotte Marauder View Post
Panik was in and out of the NHL for 3 of the 4 years prior to joining the Hawks. To think he is playing, shooting or anything the same now as then is just ridiculous.

As to prorating his TOI or games played, there is a reason he didn't play 82 games in those prior seasons. HE WASN'T GOOD ENOUGH.

For simplicity sake do think Panik has the same shooting % (luck in your words) when shooting in the slot like the Schmaltz feed or coming down the off wing with no screen and 45 feet out? If you consider them the same then why is all defense predicated on protecting the house?

The difference in those shots is what you are missing while crunching the numbers. In the past he was certainly getting the quality opportunities as he is now, simple enough?
Still trying huh.

Panik is at his most effective best as a garbageman. And before anyone takes that as some kind of insult, Phil Esposito was one of the best ever at generating goals out of thin air.

Give RP the puck anywhere within 25 feet of the net and he will generate a scoring chance pretty much every time, and he's tough. Hawks need to get him signed.

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03-31-2017, 10:21 AM
  #134
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Originally Posted by BobbyJet View Post
Still trying huh.

Panik is at his most effective best as a garbageman. And before anyone takes that as some kind of insult, Phil Esposito was one of the best ever at generating goals out of thin air.

Give RP the puck anywhere within 25 feet of the net and he will generate a scoring chance pretty much every time, and he's tough. Hawks need to get him signed.
This was something I didn't know about him until he came here.

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Old
03-31-2017, 10:54 AM
  #135
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Originally Posted by JaegerDice View Post
....are you seriously just looking at raw shot and point totals without accounting for games played? Accounting for TOI (which is a step better than GP), his shot and attempt rates are right in line with his career averages. Towards the high end, but below his career highs in 2013. His point totals prorated over 82 games land between 20-30 points.

His sh%, goals and assists are all at career highs, while the controllable stats (ie, output towards the net) have remained consistent. Which means he's pretty much doing the same things he's always done, at the same rate he's done them, just getting rewarded more frequently this year than in the past.

As far as assists go, that's certainly partly do to playing consistently with talent, and also due to Osh% or on-ice shooting percentage (the average sh% of all Blackhawks on the ice when he's on the ice). This obviously isn't controllable, he can't force pucks shot by other players into the net by 'will' or 'confidence' or such nonsense, any more than those players can control their own sh%. If they could, you really think Toews would choose to shoot at 5% for half the season?

Giving Panik over 2 million based on a single, statistically anomalous season is a big gamble.
So your theory is that Panik has always been a 20 goals scorer? Because his 150 shots * .128 career sh% puts him at 19.2 goals through 77 games. Seems 2M would be quite the bargain if 20 goals is the norm for him.

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03-31-2017, 12:03 PM
  #136
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I think JD is saying he isn't a 20 goal scorer because of his shooting %....as if players never improve their sh%.

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03-31-2017, 12:24 PM
  #137
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I don't recall seeing Panik play before he got here, but from the moment he got here it was instantly apparent that he's a legit nhl'er. I'm surprised things didn't click for him before.

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03-31-2017, 12:45 PM
  #138
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Originally Posted by DPHawk View Post
So your theory is that Panik has always been a 20 goals scorer? Because his 150 shots * .128 career sh% puts him at 19.2 goals through 77 games. Seems 2M would be quite the bargain if 20 goals is the norm for him.
No.

His career Osh% is 8.01% (roughly league average) and his career ish% is 11.53% (above league average)

This year his Osh% is 10.19% and his ish% is 12.88%.

This will skew year to year based on PP time. So 17ish goals, assuming the shot totals you included are for 5v5 + 5v4, in which case it will depend how and how much he's used on the PP moving forward.

Panik doesn't have a ton of games played. So it's possible that his sh% will regress further, could stay where it is on the Blackhawks, or potentially even increase (though that's VERY rare as a sample grows).

So with a regression back to either his career average in both, you'll probably see him drop from 40-50 points to 30-40, when you take fewer assists from lower osh% into account, along with fewer goals. And before anybody claims 'but the Blackhawks have more skill, therefore they have a higher shooting average', the team Osh%is no more sustainably higher than any other team, with different players/lines ebbing and flowing at different times.

This year they're shooting 8.41%

Last year they shot 6.64%

The year before they shot 6.86%

The year before that they shot 8.44%

Before that 9.08%

Before that 8.17%

etc

Osh%, like ish% isn't controllable.

LIke pretty much every team, over a large sample, they wind up in the 8-9% range.


I'm not saying Panik is a bad player. I want him back. I'm saying that paying more than 2 million for a guy based on a small sample is a BIG gamble. One we've seen this team take before and come to regret.

Will I curse the name of Stan Bowman if he signs Panik for 2.5 million? No. I'll think he's likely overpaid until he proves my concerns wrong. And maybe it won't even matter because the next influx of cheap prospects looks to be pretty damn good, so the team could absorb the hit.

But I think 2 million or slightly less for essentially one season's work as a 20-goal top sixer is a smarter tac.

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03-31-2017, 03:39 PM
  #139
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Originally Posted by JaegerDice View Post
No.

Panik doesn't have a ton of games played. So it's possible that his sh% will regress further, could stay where it is on the Blackhawks, or potentially even increase (though that's VERY rare as a sample grows).

So with a regression back to either his career average in both, you'll probably see him drop from 40-50 points to 30-40, when you take fewer assists from lower osh% into account, along with fewer goals. And before anybody claims 'but the Blackhawks have more skill, therefore they have a higher shooting average', the team Osh%is no more sustainably higher than any other team, with different players/lines ebbing and flowing at different times.

This year they're shooting 8.41%

Last year they shot 6.64%

The year before they shot 6.86%

The year before that they shot 8.44%

Before that 9.08%

Before that 8.17%

etc

Osh%, like ish% isn't controllable.

LIke pretty much every team, over a large sample, they wind up in the 8-9% range
Who cares what the team Osh% was? He's not playing with Kruger or Tootoo he's playing in the top 6 where Kane and Toews have identical 9.8 Osh% for their careers so Panik is not looking at a regression nearly as large as you are implying unless his role changes.

And again, his career sh% still puts him on pace for 20 goals which holds up very well at 2-2.5M, even if he gets less assists.

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03-31-2017, 03:45 PM
  #140
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Originally Posted by Hawkaholic View Post
I think JD is saying he isn't a 20 goal scorer because of his shooting %....as if players never improve their sh%.
Yes but my point is that he doesn't even need to improve off of his career sh% to be a 20 goal scorer in the role he played this season. He is generating enough shots this season to score 20 even if you assume that he will shoot less than the 14.7% he is shooting now so the sh% regression argument doesn't hold much water.

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03-31-2017, 03:50 PM
  #141
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Originally Posted by JaegerDice View Post
No.

His career Osh% is 8.01% (roughly league average) and his career ish% is 11.53% (above league average)

This year his Osh% is 10.19% and his ish% is 12.88%.

This will skew year to year based on PP time. So 17ish goals, assuming the shot totals you included are for 5v5 + 5v4, in which case it will depend how and how much he's used on the PP moving forward.

Panik doesn't have a ton of games played. So it's possible that his sh% will regress further, could stay where it is on the Blackhawks, or potentially even increase (though that's VERY rare as a sample grows).

So with a regression back to either his career average in both, you'll probably see him drop from 40-50 points to 30-40, when you take fewer assists from lower osh% into account, along with fewer goals. And before anybody claims 'but the Blackhawks have more skill, therefore they have a higher shooting average', the team Osh%is no more sustainably higher than any other team, with different players/lines ebbing and flowing at different times.

This year they're shooting 8.41%

Last year they shot 6.64%

The year before they shot 6.86%

The year before that they shot 8.44%

Before that 9.08%

Before that 8.17%

etc

Osh%, like ish% isn't controllable.

LIke pretty much every team, over a large sample, they wind up in the 8-9% range.


I'm not saying Panik is a bad player. I want him back. I'm saying that paying more than 2 million for a guy based on a small sample is a BIG gamble. One we've seen this team take before and come to regret.

Will I curse the name of Stan Bowman if he signs Panik for 2.5 million? No. I'll think he's likely overpaid until he proves my concerns wrong. And maybe it won't even matter because the next influx of cheap prospects looks to be pretty damn good, so the team could absorb the hit.

But I think 2 million or slightly less for essentially one season's work as a 20-goal top sixer is a smarter tac.
JD, I'm not familiar with Osh% and ish% (and when I google them the first result is your post). Can you give a quick rundown?

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Old
03-31-2017, 04:00 PM
  #142
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JD, I'm not familiar with Osh% and ish% (and when I google them the first result is your post). Can you give a quick rundown?
ish% is the players individual shooting percentage. That is, the number of shots he takes ON NET that turn into goals.

Some people feel that iCsh% (percentage of all shots - on net, missed or blocked - that turn into goals) or iFsh% (percentage of all UNBLOCKED shots on net or wide that turn into goals), are better indicators of shooting skill. But I'm just sticking to the traditional definition of sh%, which is percentage of shots ON NET that go in.

Osh% is ON-ICE shooting percentage. That is the aggregate shooting percentage of all the Blackhawks skaters on the ice with Player X, including Player X (in this case Panik). So the combined shooting% of all 5 skaters divided by 5, for all the time that Panik is on the ice.

Osh% is one of the two components of PDO, the other being on-ice save percentage (Osv%). PDO is basically shorthand for 'luck', as it's the combination of the two forces that skaters' performance have no influence over. Over the course of a season, all teams PDO regresses to 100... that is, every team will have a Osh% and a Osv% that add up to within a few decimal points of 100. Those higher are 'lucky' and more likely to see their goal differential (and thus, wins), slip. Those lower than 100 are unlucky, and more likely to see their goal differential (and thus, wins) improve.

This goes for players as well. If a goalie is completely lights out AND every skater on the ice is shooting the lights out while he's on the ice, chances are that isn't going to last forever. His PDO could be something like 93(sv%) +10(sh%) which adds up to 103 PDO... meaning either the goalie or his teammates are going to cool off and bring the sum back down to 100.... which means fewer shots will go in for his team, more for the other team, or both. And as a result, goal differential will be worse, the team could lose more.... all through no change in play of his own.

Hope that helps.

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