What Variables Predict Playoff Success?

[seventieslord]

Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe

I believe I saw a ministudy previously that showed very little correlation between being hot down the stretch and winning in the playoffs. It showed that teams that tended to do best in the playoffs built up a huge lead in the standings early on, then sort of coasted towards the playoffs, maybe losing ground along the way. Makes sense to me.

There might be a difference between pre-lockout and post-lockout though, as there is more parity now, and the current NHL points system lengthens playoff races.

I believe I have read that, too.

[billybudd]

Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe

This may or may not be a starting point.

From HOH, the weakest team to win the Cup in recent memory: http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh....php?t=1195909




The recent Kings (terrible offense in the regular season) broke some major trends

The two outliers (Pitt and LAK) both had coach/system changes late-ish in the year (the one guy does note this about Pitt). I would think it best to throw them both out if looking for trends, reasoning that the hockey they played in the playoffs wasn't necessarily the same hockey that generated the sub-par numbers.

[Jason MacIsaac]

http://www.broadstreethockey.com/201...k-nhl-playoffs

Helped me win my playoff pool picking all LA and NJ.

Outside of dominating play, it's pretty hard to predict the playoffs because its plain dumb luck. Can anyone predict sh% and sv% in the playoffs because I know I can't. This is especially hard when trying to predict 7 game sample sizes.

[Yurog]

Perhaps it is just a coincidence. Semifinalist Tampa Bay is only twentieth. But there is a good correlation
2010-2011
Team Plus/Minus Differential

Team GF PPGF NetGF GA PPGA NetGA GoalDifferential
Boston 246 43 203 195 46 149 +54
Vancouver 262 72 190 185 45 140 +50
Philadelphia 259 49 210 223 54 169 +41
Pittsburgh 238 49 189 199 45 154 +35
NY Rangers 233 49 184 198 42 156 +28
Nashville 219 41 178 194 41 153 +25
Washington 224 46 178 197 43 154 +24
Phoenix 231 46 185 226 64 162 +23
San Jose 248 68 180 213 56 157 +23
Chicago 258 64 194 225 53 172 +22
Los Angeles 219 47 172 198 40 158 +14
Buffalo 245 54 191 229 51 178 +13
Detroit 261 67 194 241 53 188 +6
St. Louis 240 52 188 234 51 183 +5
Calgary 250 62 188 237 53 184 +4
Montreal 216 57 159 209 51 158 +1
Anaheim 239 67 172 235 57 178 -6
Dallas 227 55 172 233 55 178 -6
Carolina 236 55 181 239 51 188 -7
Tampa Bay 247 69 178 240 49 191 -13
Columbus 215 42 173 258 62 196 -23
Toronto 218 52 166 251 62 189 -23
Minnesota 206 53 153 233 53 180 -27
Florida 195 35 160 229 41 188 -28
New Jersey 174 34 140 209 40 169 -29
Colorado 227 49 178 288 75 213 -35
NY Islanders 229 52 177 264 52 212 -35
Atlanta 223 53 170 269 64 205 -35
Edmonton 193 44 149 269 74 195 -46
Ottawa 192 45 147 250 48 202 -55

Need to try out the statistics for last seasons

[Burke the Legend]

Originally Posted by billybudd

The two outliers (Pitt and LAK) both had coach/system changes late-ish in the year (the one guy does note this about Pitt). I would think it best to throw them both out if looking for trends, reasoning that the hockey they played in the playoffs wasn't necessarily the same hockey that generated the sub-par numbers.

Dismal underperforming first half offence was reformed with player acquisitions and style changes.

That said I believe it's almost impossible to consistently predict playoff performance based on regular season stats because the two biggest playoff variables IMO are 1) goaltending and 2) health.

Did any kind of statistical model predict J. Quick would deliver a .946 save % in the 2012 playoffs?

Health is fairly self exaplanatory. When key regulars start dropping like flies down the stretch and in the playoffs, any team stats acquired during the regular season become fuzzier and fuzzier as the team that actually created them begins to decompile.

[Meteor]

Originally Posted by Burke the Legend

Dismal underperforming first half offence was reformed with player acquisitions and style changes.

That said I believe it's almost impossible to consistently predict playoff performance based on regular season stats because the two biggest playoff variables IMO are 1) goaltending and 2) health.

Did any kind of statistical model predict J. Quick would deliver a .946 save % in the 2012 playoffs?

Health is fairly self exaplanatory. When key regulars start dropping like flies down the stretch and in the playoffs, any team stats acquired during the regular season become fuzzier and fuzzier as the team that actually created them begins to decompile.

No, but any reasonable statistical model would have told you that if anyone were to go on such an amazing run, it would most likely be Quick, Smith, or Lundqvist (top 3 regular season sv%s).

[vanuck]

I've heard score-tied Fenwick or something similar may have been used to predict the Kings winning it all... any truth to this? Can't remember where I saw this.

[Jason MacIsaac]

Originally Posted by vanuck

I've heard score-tied Fenwick or something similar may have been used to predict the Kings winning it all... any truth to this? Can't remember where I saw this.

4 posts up...its adjusted Fenwick.