To me this who Parise argument to validate why you need to continue to select forwards at 1st/2nd overall is just grasping for straws. Edmonton wasn't the only team that passed on Parise.
Everyone is talking about how even if you take a d-man in the draft it won't matter because he isn't going to just step in next year and suddenly change everything. The point is to build your team for the future. There currently isn't a top defenseman in your system. This is something that you don't seriously reap the rewards for at least 4-5 years, which is probably around the time guys like Hall, RNH, Eberle, MPS, and so on will be hitting their primes and be some of the top players in the NHL.
It isn't like the difference from Grigorenko and Murray/Trouba/Dumba is that big either.
Are you sure that the difference between Murray and a guy like Klefbom will be any greater than the difference between Grigorenko and Gagner? Klefbom was an allstar at the WJHC, is now playing big minutes in the SEL and is all of 2 months older than Murray.
Dumba brings a very different dynamic that I believe would be huge for the Oilers, but he is certainly more of a work in progress than the other two.
Personally, I'd love to have Murray or Dumba on the Oilers but all of this stuff about the Oilers having to take a dman because they have no one in their system is simply false.
People are saying dont take the guy every scout has rated 2nd because your team needs dmen.
In 2003 it was we have small centers so dont need that Parise guy lets trade down for that player who fits a NEED. Well a few years later Todd Marchand and Mike Comrie were gone so drafting for need was stupid because the team didnt have small centers by the time the drafted player was available to play. Parise ended up being way better.
So had the oilers drafted BPA instead of by need they wouldnt trade down and would have taken Parise instead of Pouliot
not every scout has Grigorenko ranked 2nd. From TSN:
Quote:
Mikhail Grigorenko: There had been whispers over the past month that all may not be wonderful when it comes to the scouting world's perception of Grigorenko's competitiveness, but the whispers have grown into full-blown skepticism in some circles. "He could fall right off the map," said one scout who asserted that his club won't be considering him in the first round.
"He doesn't want to compete. If he's there at 25 and we are picking, we go by him."
His concerns were echoed by another eastern conference scout who insisted his team will not select the talented Russian no matter where they end up in the standings. "He's a dog. Take a look at what games Grigorenko gets his points. He gets a handful the other night against PEI. none at Moncton, and one assist (in the nationally televised game) in Saint John. A couple of weeks ago in Rimouski he's minus 6. He scares the (crap) out of me." While there's no denying his skill level, and his 73 points in 39 games as a QMJHL rookie are a testament to his offensive abilities, there will be a lot of teams watching him closely in the playoffs to see whether he has the competitive streak scouts like to see in their top five prospects. As of right now a number of teams have several players ranked ahead of him, and that trend will continue if he does not learn to compete at a higher level.
BTW, I don't agree with that assessment at all. I've watched Grigorenko quite a bit and I do believe he is a star. I also think Murray and Dumba could be star players too. My point is only that BPA is a subjective thing and that maybe there isn't much separating Grigs from Murray or Dumba, so if I am the Oilers and have a need for a puck moving dman who can play the power play, I might be inclined to take Murray or Dumba over Grigorenko.
Are you sure that the difference between Murray and a guy like Klefbom will be any greater than the difference between Grigorenko and Gagner? Klefbom was an allstar at the WJHC, is now playing big minutes in the SEL and is all of 2 months older than Murray.
Dumba brings a very different dynamic that I believe would be huge for the Oilers, but he is certainly more of a work in progress than the other two.
Personally, I'd love to have Murray or Dumba on the Oilers but all of this stuff about the Oilers having to take a dman because they have no one in their system is simply false.
But what about having both Murray and Klefbom. To me it's pretty clear that Edmonton can score goals. What they can't do is keep the puck out of their own net and protect leads.
It's the reason Washington has done nothing in the postseason. When Arnott was traded there, he looked at how they did things and said "you're never going to win in the playoffs playing like this".
Edit: A time where BPA didn't work; when the Devils took Tedenby over Carlson. It could be early to assess this since they are still young and I'm still a huge Tedenby fan. But at the time the Devils clearly needed a PMD but decided to go with the highly offensive winger. Multiple years later the Devils are finally addressing their problems at defense.
I would definitely swap picks with Montreal, so they can have Grigs. I dont know what we could/would get in return. Maybe Diaz? I really am ignorant here.
I'm not opposed to taking Grigs. I'd rather trade the pick and aquire a good young D further along the development curve but if there no great offers I'd take grigs. Our D is loaded in the system so that problem will take care of itself long term.
forgive my ignorance but havent some ppl questioned forsbergs offensive abilities? PRV is still a project in that area of the game so i dont know if would want another one. give me dumba ceci or reinhart at 5 if galchenyuk is gone
But what about having both Murray and Klefbom. To me it's pretty clear that Edmonton can score goals. What they can't do is keep the puck out of their own net and protect leads.
It's the reason Washington has done nothing in the postseason. When Arnott was traded there, he looked at how they did things and said "you're never going to win in the playoffs playing like this".
Edit: A time where BPA didn't work; when the Devils took Tedenby over Carlson. It could be early to assess this since they are still young and I'm still a huge Tedenby fan. But at the time the Devils clearly needed a PMD but decided to go with the highly offensive winger. Multiple years later the Devils are finally addressing their problems at defense.
I don't think anyone would say that picking a dman is not a reasonable strategy. Personally I prefer Dumba to Murray because I think his skill set is something the Oilers badly need.
Where some of us Oiler fans become frustrated is when people suggest that the Oilers would be crazy not to draft a dman and claim that the Oilers have no one in their prospect pool who is any good. (Not saying you here but in general).
I think there is a general misconception about a) how bad the Oilers defense really is and b) how good the prospects actually are.
Again, no one is going to suggest that the Oilers defense is not an issue. But part of the problem this year has been injuries which have forced the team to go with some pretty sketchy scenarios as they definitely lack NHL level depth. The team also at this point has no true #1 guy so everyone has played above their pay-grade.
But right now Smid, Schultz, Petry and even a hobbled Whitney have proved quite servicible. If Whitney can gain his mobility next year, and if Petry continues to progress, then they at worst have 3 of their top four slots in very good shape.
Throw in Klefbom, Marincin, Gernat, Teubert and Musil and my guess is that the Oilers can quite likely hope to have a solid NHL defense going forward. What is unkown is whether or not it will ever be better than solid. That is where Murray/Dumba would come in because drafting either increases the odds of finding that true gem.
The flip side though is that many of us are convinced that going with Gagner as the #2 center, given the make-up of the team, will almost surely hinder the teams chances for becoming a true contender. It is not even so much that he is not a good player, because in the right circumstances he can be quite effective, as it is that he does not fit with the main part of the core.
That is why many of us want a center. History tells us that the best centers almost always come from the top end of the draft. With dmen it is far more likely that a gem comes from a later pick.
forgive my ignorance but havent some ppl questioned forsbergs offensive abilities? PRV is still a project in that area of the game so i dont know if would want another one. give me dumba ceci or reinhart at 5 if galchenyuk is gone
I have yet to see a report questioning Forsberg's offensive abilities...mind you I have not seen too many reports on the kid at all...confusing him for MPS perhaps?
If Patrick Roy becomes the Habs coach I would think that they will want Grigorenko.
How do you know?
Maybe Roy thinks he will be a bust or playing KHL like Filatov and Zherdev in 3-4 years.
Unless you have Roy hooked up to a polygraph machine you won't really know who he would want. I'm sure Roy loves Grigorenko putting butts in the seats for his junior team but he has question marks in terms of being an NHL star.
Maybe Roy thinks he will be a bust or playing KHL like Filatov and Zherdev in 3-4 years.
Unless you have Roy hooked up to a polygraph machine you won't really know who he would want. I'm sure Roy loves Grigorenko putting butts in the seats for his junior team but he has question marks in terms of being an NHL star.
How do you know that Roy has question marks in terms of being an NHL star?
I think it's a reasonable assumption that the chances of MTL drafting Grigorenko will go up if Roy is head coach...the poster didn't say it to be fact, just that he thinks this will be the case.
I don't think anyone would say that picking a dman is not a reasonable strategy. Personally I prefer Dumba to Murray because I think his skill set is something the Oilers badly need.
Where some of us Oiler fans become frustrated is when people suggest that the Oilers would be crazy not to draft a dman and claim that the Oilers have no one in their prospect pool who is any good. (Not saying you here but in general).
I think there is a general misconception about a) how bad the Oilers defense really is and b) how good the prospects actually are.
Again, no one is going to suggest that the Oilers defense is not an issue. But part of the problem this year has been injuries which have forced the team to go with some pretty sketchy scenarios as they definitely lack NHL level depth. The team also at this point has no true #1 guy so everyone has played above their pay-grade.
But right now Smid, Schultz, Petry and even a hobbled Whitney have proved quite servicible. If Whitney can gain his mobility next year, and if Petry continues to progress, then they at worst have 3 of their top four slots in very good shape.
Throw in Klefbom, Marincin, Gernat, Teubert and Musil and my guess is that the Oilers can quite likely hope to have a solid NHL defense going forward. What is unkown is whether or not it will ever be better than solid. That is where Murray/Dumba would come in because drafting either increases the odds of finding that true gem.
The flip side though is that many of us are convinced that going with Gagner as the #2 center, given the make-up of the team, will almost surely hinder the teams chances for becoming a true contender. It is not even so much that he is not a good player, because in the right circumstances he can be quite effective, as it is that he does not fit with the main part of the core.
That is why many of us want a center. History tells us that the best centers almost always come from the top end of the draft. With dmen it is far more likely that a gem comes from a later pick.
I'm not trying to say you guys have no defensive prospects. (I know you weren't implying this, but just wanted to state it.) But for me the difference between Murray/Trouba/Dumba and Grigorenko isn't that big or nonexistent in my eyes. For me when it comes down to that it would be better for the team to take a defensemen. It is also an age old thing that you can never have too many defensemen.
You can also attribute the problem with goals against to goalies. That's why I think Edmonton goes with Vasilevski/Dansk/Subban in the second round.
I'm not trying to say you guys have no defensive prospects. (I know you weren't implying this, but just wanted to state it.) But for me the difference between Murray/Trouba/Dumba and Grigorenko isn't that big or nonexistent in my eyes. For me when it comes down to that it would be better for the team to take a defensemen. It is also an age old thing that you can never have too many defensemen.
You can also attribute the problem with goals against to goalies. That's why I think Edmonton goes with Vasilevski/Dansk/Subban in the second round.
Goal is probably a bigger issue than defense on many nights and may well be going forward. They have pick a fair number of late with Bunz being the best. Roy had a very good year in the ECHL but he has a long way to go. They also have Perhonen and Tuohimaa from the last draft. Though certainly one of the guys you mention would be great.
Funny thing about your comment about too many defensemen. The Oilers may almost find themselves in that situation in a year or so. The prospect pools actually larger. In addition to Klefbom, Marincin, Gernat and Musil, they also have Fedun (who might have made th team), Plante, Davidson, Teubert, Bigos and Blain who will all need spots in the system soon. Of theses perhaps only Plante is at a point where they should cut him loose.
Goal is probably a bigger issue than defense on many nights and may well be going forward. They have pick a fair number of late with Bunz being the best. Roy had a very good year in the ECHL but he has a long way to go. They also have Perhonen and Tuohimaa from the last draft. Though certainly one of the guys you mention would be great.
Funny thing about your comment about too many defensemen. The Oilers may almost find themselves in that situation in a year or so. The prospect pools actually larger. In addition to Klefbom, Marincin, Gernat and Musil, they also have Fedun (who might have made th team), Plante, Davidson, Teubert, Bigos and Blain who will all need spots in the system soon. Of theses perhaps only Plante is at a point where they should cut him loose.
Nothing wrong with too many defensemen. The Devils found themselves with an issue of not having enough defensemen in the system in the last years and they went out and drafted a bunch of them. Now it looks like they have so many that they don't know where to put them It's a good situation though because you get to keep all of the ones that you feel are the best and trade the others for assets. We got Ponikarovsky by packaging Sova with a draft pick.
Look at the Predators. They do the same thing. They continue to fill their prospect pool with defensemen and goalies. It seems to work pretty well for them.
Nothing wrong with too many defensemen. The Devils found themselves with an issue of not having enough defensemen in the system in the last years and they went out and drafted a bunch of them. Now it looks like they have so many that they don't know where to put them It's a good situation though because you get to keep all of the ones that you feel are the best and trade the others for assets. We got Ponikarovsky by packaging Sova with a draft pick.
Look at the Predators. They do the same thing. They continue to fill their prospect pool with defensemen and goalies. It seems to work pretty well for them.
But as Fourier keeps explaining we also need a large offensive 1B centre and those are almost always found at the top of the draft.
There may be little difference in talent between Grigorenko and Dumba/Murray - I will leave that for those who follow juniors more than I do - but that is not the point.
The point is that we think there is a lot of difference between Grigorenko/Galchenyuk and Gagner and not that much between Klefbom and Murray/Dumba.
We need both types of players but we think we have lots of dman prospects and some of them with a fair amount of potential. We have nothing in the system for offensive centres.
So if our scouts decide there is little to choose between the above players we should take the centre imo.
It's a good situation though because you get to keep all of the ones that you feel are the best and trade the others for assets. We got Ponikarovsky by packaging Sova with a draft pick.
