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Blues Trade Proposals Part XXXII

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Old
07-23-2017, 09:52 PM
  #851
Dbrownss
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Tavares basically controls where he goes, Drouin did not. The price will soley depend on who he is willing to sign with. I cant pretend to know where he wants to go but if i were him....Stl looks like an excellent fit. As long as Army can pay him.

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07-23-2017, 09:56 PM
  #852
The Lehterasenkshow
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Tavares as a rental shouldn't cost Kostin+Thomas+ or anything like that. One of Dunn, Walman, Kostin, Thomas, or Barbashev would be the price, plus other pieces. Personally, I feel like Barbashev is the most expendable out of the forwards (I won't get into it), and Walman is the most expendable out of the defense (It's really close to a toss-up, though).

Remember, this is for a rental. I suppose we could look at it as Drouin was for Shattenkirk with intentions to re-sign. If Tavares has intentions to re-sign, outside of giving up current Top 6 talent, I think NYI would be most interested in a defenseman coming back as the centerpiece. Walman+Thompson+ if they aren't interested in a '19 1st. Two 1st round quality prospects plus a good roster player should be enough to get the ball rolling. I would push away from trading Kostin or Thomas, but of course they could be an option. Either way, that's the largest rental-esque haul I can remember that actually happened.

There just aren't that many teams with the need, the space, the assets and the cup readiness that STL brings to the table. I would bet there is a very short list for teams that fit all of the above, and the Blues have got to be near the top.

Combined with the fact that there is no way in hell that JT would end-up in the East via trade (he might come back via FA):

Pacific:
Anahiem? Maybe: they have the pieces on defense, the cup aspirations, but already have Getzlaf. They also don't really have the cap outside of using JT as a pure rental.
Arizona? No: Zero cup aspirations anytime soon, and don't spend to the cap. They are rebuilding, but do have the pieces to make the deal. Just not plausible.
Calgary? Yes: They have the pieces on defense, need the 1C, but have weak aspirations. The rest of that team (look at the goalies) is not champion caliber.
Edmonton? No: McDavid and Draisaitl take up the cap and the minutes. Not enough good pieces to move for JT.
Los Angeles? No: They are not competing, don't have the cap, don't have the assets, and Kopitar is their 1C.
San Jose? No: They don't have the assets to move for JT, and they are on the decline. They do need a young 1C, but they don't have the supporting cast outside of the D. They're a team on the decline with or without Tavares.
Vancouver? No: They don't have the cup aspirations and that team is going to be rivaling LVK for the bottom of the league.
Las Vegas? No: See above.

Central:
Chicago? No: Don't have the cap nor the need.
Colorado? No: Don't have the cap nor the need unless Mackinnon is a winger. Also, they are a bad team with or without Tavares. That defense and goal-tending is god awful.
Dallas? No: Don't have the need with Seguin as 1C, and don't have the pieces to trade.
Minnesota? Yes: They have the prospects, they can find a way to get the cap, and they have the need.
Nashville? Maybe: They have the cap potentially, and maybe they see RyJo as a 2C. Unlikely, but Poile does sick ****.
Winnipeg? Maybe: They have the cap potentially, and might see Scheifele as a 2C. Still fairly unlikely.

So out of the Western teams:
Blues: Yes
Calgary: Yes
Minnesota: Yes

Nashville: Maybe
Winnipeg: Maybe
Anahiem: Maybe

Out of the 'yes' teams, the Blues have by far the best personnel, cup aspirations, need, cap space, and pieces to move. Minnesota has all except the cap space and forward personnel. Calgary has everything except the cup aspirations and forward/goalie personnel.

Out of the maybes, all three teams would have to be willing to demote their 1Cs, and Anahiem would have to be willing to spend to the cap. Winnipeg is an awful place to live. Nashville might be the most likely destination of the three.

It's a tough call between STL and NSH. Both have a strong surrounding cast, but only one has the greatest need for a 1C. I think we could out-bid them, and I also think our lineup has a slight edge for better complimenting Tavares.

I think this makes STL an ideal situation for Tavares. Getting him as a rental seems most likely to me.

If JT wants to play in the East, then we will have to compete with CBJ and MTL. I doubt JT wants to go to CBJ as long as Tortorella is in charge, and I don't think he would rather go there than STL. As for MTL, I could see Tavares wanting to sign with them, and I could see MTL putting the money forward to land him. However, it's hard to argue that MTL has a better supporting cast. Outside of Price, we have the better team easily - especially in the long-term. If he wants to play for a big market team, that's our main opponent, but if he wasn't interested in winning, then he wouldn't be leaving NYI. I don't see too much competition here.

So there's my thoughts. I think JT has a choice between STL, MIN, and NSH if he wants to win in the now and the future. STL seems the best choice to me. If he's comfortable with winning a little later, CGY might be the best fit.

I see JT going after the best overall package, and while arguments can be made one way or the other, I think no matter how you slice it (if JT just doesn't want to be in a big market) STL has the best overall package for him.

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07-23-2017, 10:00 PM
  #853
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I think Schmaltz and one of Thompson or Kyrou would easily be the most expendable prospects, when you look at the positions they play.

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07-23-2017, 11:00 PM
  #854
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Well put Lehterasenkshow. Its a logical way to look at it without hearing from JT himself.


And just for the fun ruiners...yes we are aware JT might pull a Stamkos.

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07-23-2017, 11:50 PM
  #855
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Originally Posted by Dbrownss View Post
Tavares basically controls where he goes, Drouin did not. The price will soley depend on who he is willing to sign with. I cant pretend to know where he wants to go but if i were him....Stl looks like an excellent fit. As long as Army can pay him.
He controls where he goes in FA, but he only has a modified NTC. Why would he control where he goes in a trade? Why would NYI take a 2nd or 3rd best offer unless those teams are on his list? We still have to have the best offer from applicable teams.

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07-23-2017, 11:59 PM
  #856
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Originally Posted by sfvega View Post
He controls where he goes in FA, but he only has a modified NTC. Why would he control where he goes in a trade? Why would NYI take a 2nd or 3rd best offer unless those teams are on his list? We still have to have the best offer from applicable teams.
Because he's going to be a pending FA. No team is going to open the piggy bank if he's not going to resign.

Look what Shattenkirk did without a NTC, We got Sanford+1st. Now id imagine Tavares would bring back more but teams are not going to send Bluechip prospects+draft picks for a few months of his service.

If JT has a few teams he's actually willing to re sign with, well then its just down to those teams. At that point...its anyones guess.

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07-24-2017, 01:56 AM
  #857
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Originally Posted by Dbrownss View Post
Because he's going to be a pending FA. No team is going to open the piggy bank if he's not going to resign.

Look what Shattenkirk did without a NTC, We got Sanford+1st. Now id imagine Tavares would bring back more but teams are not going to send Bluechip prospects+draft picks for a few months of his service.

If JT has a few teams he's actually willing to re sign with, well then its just down to those teams. At that point...its anyones guess.
JT having a few teams he's willing to re-sign with doesn't automatically mean those teams have the best offers, though. If it gets near the deadline, NYI needs to move him for whatever the best offer is, regardless of whether it's for a rental or for a re-signing. If we're looking to get a signed Tavares, it's going to be a lot. Look at what we gave up for a few months of Ryan Miller, and he wasn't even in his prime.

You say the price depends solely on who he is willing to sign with, but that price tag for a signed Tavares is much higher. We tried to get Taylor Hall and Drouin for an extended Shatty. What would be the ask on an extended Tavares you think? I mean, you could ask Isles fans, but they're probably gonna say Schwartz and Kostin or Dunn +. Maybe Tavares wants to play with the Blues, but that doesn't automatically put us in the driver's seat to get him or to get him for cheaper than we expect. I mean, if we were in the same situation with Tank, would you be saying the same thing? What type of return would we be expecting? Because they are somewhat comparable in talent level.

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07-24-2017, 02:09 AM
  #858
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wont happen. tank wont give up 91, you know, selfish russians. itll be the fan all over again

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07-24-2017, 03:28 AM
  #859
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Originally Posted by sfvega View Post
JT having a few teams he's willing to re-sign with doesn't automatically mean those teams have the best offers, though. If it gets near the deadline, NYI needs to move him for whatever the best offer is, regardless of whether it's for a rental or for a re-signing. If we're looking to get a signed Tavares, it's going to be a lot. Look at what we gave up for a few months of Ryan Miller, and he wasn't even in his prime.

You say the price depends solely on who he is willing to sign with, but that price tag for a signed Tavares is much higher. We tried to get Taylor Hall and Drouin for an extended Shatty. What would be the ask on an extended Tavares you think? I mean, you could ask Isles fans, but they're probably gonna say Schwartz and Kostin or Dunn +. Maybe Tavares wants to play with the Blues, but that doesn't automatically put us in the driver's seat to get him or to get him for cheaper than we expect. I mean, if we were in the same situation with Tank, would you be saying the same thing? What type of return would we be expecting? Because they are somewhat comparable in talent level.
I'm not following you...

If NYI knows that Tavares isn't going to resign, then they will trade him for the best return possible. The best return possible is going to be a sign and trade scenario. JT will give a couple teams that he'd be willing to resign with, and they will try to make a trade with those teams because that will give them the best package.

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07-24-2017, 05:03 AM
  #860
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If it is a rental situation, then Tavares has little control over the situation. Shattenkirk controlled the situation because we were looking for a hockey trade, so the deals depended on an extension.

It's the same with Tavares if he isn't going to sign an extension. If the Islanders want a premium return then they need to trade him where he is going to sign an extension immediately, and that means we are giving up Fabbri+.

If they are moving him as a pure rental, then it is whoever offers the biggest package... and some GM's absolutely will pay a stupid price to give themselves an advantage in possibly extending him.

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07-24-2017, 06:13 AM
  #861
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Originally Posted by HighNote View Post
I'm not following you...

If NYI knows that Tavares isn't going to resign, then they will trade him for the best return possible. The best return possible is going to be a sign and trade scenario. JT will give a couple teams that he'd be willing to resign with, and they will try to make a trade with those teams because that will give them the best package.
Because preferred destination does not a deal make. We just went through that with Shatty, whose desire to go to the Rangers was the worst kept secret in the league. That didn't necessarily make them front-runners for a deal, nor did it mean that they had a package we wanted or that they were willing to part with the guys we wanted. And we don't even know if we're on JT's short list.

And I want Tavares as much as the next guy. He'd solve a lot of problems with this roster and this offense and the PP. But I do think it's unlikely. I think the pieces we want to move aren't as enticing as we hope, and the pieces they're more likely to want are going to make a deal tougher just from a roster make-up standpoint. His contract would really put us up against it in the cap, and may require us to move contracts unless Schwartz or one of our higher dollar guys is involved (Steen or Bow, I wish....) Joel and Fabbri are both due for raises.

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07-24-2017, 09:36 PM
  #862
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Tage Thompson + Sobotka + Gunnarsson + Schmaltz + Jaskin + Sergeev

For

Duchene



That's as much as I'd offer Sakic for Duchene.


Fabbri Duchene Tarasenko
Schwartz Stastny Kyrou
Steen Barbashev Schenn
Paajarvi Brodziak Bennett

Thorburn Sundqvist


J-bow Pietrangelo
Edmundson Parayko
Dunn Bortuzzo

Walman


Berglund can solidly the 4th line when healthy. Keep the two kids Barbashev & Kyrou split up & playing with veterans. If it's believed Duchene can put the club over the tipping point & make the Blues true contenders it makes sense.

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07-24-2017, 11:04 PM
  #863
The Lehterasenkshow
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I think we'd be able to match any bid just by making a deal around either Ed or Walman. Two 1sts + seems to be the asking price right now.

Edmundson+Thompson+Berglund

or

Walman+Thompson+Gunnarsson

or

Barbashev+Schmaltz+Gunnarsson+Jaskin

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07-24-2017, 11:29 PM
  #864
Ivan Barbashev
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If a bunch of lesser pieces were gonna get him, he would have been moved by now. I imagine Sakic would prefer one high end piece (like a Jones/Johansen like swap) before taking on a bunch of lesser pieces.

They would want Parayko.

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07-24-2017, 11:40 PM
  #865
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If a bunch of lesser pieces were gonna get him, he would have been moved by now. I imagine Sakic would prefer one high end piece (like a Jones/Johansen like swap) before taking on a bunch of lesser pieces.

They would want Parayko.
Agreed. Spektre and Lehterasenkshow's proposals have too much quantity, not enough quality. Plenty of teams could beat those offers.

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Yesterday, 12:27 AM
  #866
The Lehterasenkshow
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Agreed. Spektre and Lehterasenkshow's proposals have too much quantity, not enough quality. Plenty of teams could beat those offers.
The call back a the the deadline was for a current Top 4, young dman, and three good pieces, or four good future pieces (1stx3+ value). A month ago the ask was said to have come down to one less good piece in either deal.

My thought is that Colorado will be extraordinarily bad by the end of November, and management will move Duchene for 2 1sts value, and it will be for futures and a veteran defenseman. Colorado has made little to no change in the off-season, and are still trying to get one of their only bright spots on D to sign and not go to Russia. Even with Zadorov, that defense is hot garbage, and the goal-tending isn't getting any younger or better. The supporting cast around Duchene, Mackinnon, and Landeskog is very poor outside of Tyson Jost.

They are going to be awful in a stronger Central, and West. Vancouver, LVK, and Colorado are the likely bottom-dwellers for the entire league, let alone West. Another season that is over before December would be enough to make Duchene be traded for something that he wouldn't have been at the TDL last year.

A young, top 4 dman plus good futures and another decent roster player might be enough to match another teams' offer if they don't need Duchene as badly and/or don't have the young defensive talent that we have to offer.

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Yesterday, 03:11 AM
  #867
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I really don't like the Tavares rental idea. Our prospect pool is the deepest it has been in years, and then we gut it to have Tavares for a few months? I can see it now, we lose Fabbri, Thompson, Walman, one of Berglund or Sobotka and probably our 2019 1st, then Pietrangelo breaks his leg, Tarasenko gets snakebit and we run in to a hot goaltender. 1st round exit. Then Tavares signs with Nashville. Or Chicago. NO! I hope Armstrong isn't that stupid. Either Tavares is guaranteed to sign, or there is no deal.


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Yesterday, 04:16 AM
  #868
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I really don't like the Tavares rental idea. Our prospect pool is the deepest it has been in years, and then we gut it to have Tavares for a few months? I can see it now, we lose Fabbri, Thompson, Walman, one of Berglund or Sobotka and probably our 2019 1st, then Pietrangelo breaks his leg, Tarasenko gets snakebit and we run in to a hot goaltender. 1st round exit. Then Tavares signs with Nashville. Or Chicago. NO! I hope Armstrong isn't that stupid. Either Tavares is guaranteed to sign, or there is no deal.
There's no way e would give that up all that for a rental, a locked up Tavares maybe.

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Yesterday, 11:54 AM
  #869
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At the trade-deadline and as a rental, I'd ABSOLUTELY pay a hefty price to get Tavares...even if only for the playoffs. Assuming then, you're dealing strictly futures and nobody key from the roster:

Schwartz-Tavares-Schenn
Fabbri-Stastny-Tarasenko
Steen-Barbashev-Berglund/Sobotka
Pay-R-Vee/Sundqvist/Brodziak/Thorburn/Jaskin/Bennett

With the Blues defense, that team is the favorite to come out of the West.
If we can get a clear-path to a coin-toss Finals matchup, I trade picks and prospects like the world is ending tomorrow. I want a Cup before I die.

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Yesterday, 12:08 PM
  #870
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As a follow up...Blues were down for what, three years after Laurie bottomed the franchise out? This team isn't going to crumble by losing 3 or 4 top picks/prospects. With the possible loss of Stastny next year, this may be the best opportunity of the past 20 years to get a Cup ('99 team never had a chance with Turek). The West has never been more wide-open...the prospect pipeline has never been more loaded...and the NHL roster has never been so balanced and deep. We're very clearly ONE piece away. Not three. A legitimate number-1 center checks off a pretty much every need for a true Cup contender:

#1D - check (Petro). #1C - check (Tavares). #1W - check (Tarasenko). #1G - check (Allen). #2D - check (Parayko). #3D - check(Bouwmeester). #2C - check (Stastny). Secondary scoring - check (Schwartz/Schenn/Fabbri/Steen).

Any setback asset-wise would be on-par with the 2015 hiccup with Ryan Miller, and quickly be recovered with the amateur scouting department that the Blues have. And seeing as how athletes love STL once they get here, I'd be surprised if we couldn't convince JT to resign here, provided the Blues have a nice run in the playoffs...which would be tough to see them fumbling, with the depth, talent and experience they'd have. There are a lot of playoff warriors on that potential roster (Petro, Tarasenko, Tavares being the obvious)...would be a shame to see the club sit on their hands because they're too worried about the failure side of "what-if" than the success side.

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