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Komisarek is just not good

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Old
10-10-2011, 01:15 PM
  #151
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Originally Posted by Squiffy View Post
50% of a D-man's value is based on +/-? Methodology is questionable at best. I dunno where Komi ranks on some sort of value/$ scale, not very well, we know that much, but I wouldn't use that "research" in quantifying the opinion.
The first and foremost objective of an NHL defenceman is to keep the puck out of his own net. You find that questionable?

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10-10-2011, 01:20 PM
  #152
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Komi's not very good, and people who say he's playing well are using extremely low standards (i.e. "he didn't make any colossal ****-ups, and he only got burnt once or twice).

He's got the 24th highest D-Man caphit in the league (i.e. he's paid like a #1 dman), and he's a barely usedul bottom-pair dman. He's not one of our top-6 defensemen, and may not be one of our top-8 defensemen.

The only good news here is that he's the last piece of deadweight on the roster....slowly but surely Burke has rid himself of the other mistakes - both inherited ones like Finger and Blake, and his own ones like Giguere and Lebda. With Komi's NMC we'll see if Burke can pull out one last bit of magic and get rid of his one remaining roster inefficiency.

It'll be tough, but maybe Burke can do it. If he can, then for the first time since the lockout we'll have a roster free of any cap deadweight (well, except for that remaining Tucker buyout thanks to the senile old fool).

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10-10-2011, 01:21 PM
  #153
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Originally Posted by PresidentCamacho View Post
The first and foremost objective of an NHL defenceman is to keep the puck out of his own net. You find that questionable?
+/- is a horrible stat.

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10-10-2011, 01:21 PM
  #154
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Originally Posted by PresidentCamacho View Post
The first and foremost objective of an NHL defenceman is to keep the puck out of his own net. You find that questionable?
No. And?

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10-10-2011, 01:25 PM
  #155
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Sorry zeke but Lupul, Phaneuf, Connolly, Kessel, Armstrong, and Lombardi aren't out of the woods yet. We are spending 5th highest in the league. We will find out the degree of cap inefficiency at the end of the year, when the final standings are set.

I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that it will exceed the deadweight found in Komisarek's cap hit.

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10-10-2011, 01:33 PM
  #156
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Originally Posted by PresidentCamacho View Post
I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that it will exceed the deadweight found in Komisarek's cap hit.
Shocking, indeed.

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10-10-2011, 01:34 PM
  #157
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Originally Posted by Squiffy View Post
No. And?
So why wouldn't a higher priority be placed on a GF/GA differential?

There are obvious limitations to what +/- can conclusively state about one singular player, but in the context of Komisarek, he was playing limited 3rd-pairing minutes (a role he should have been able to handle) ineffectively.

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10-10-2011, 01:37 PM
  #158
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Originally Posted by PresidentCamacho View Post
Sorry zeke but Lupul, Phaneuf, Connolly, Kessel, Armstrong, and Lombardi aren't out of the woods yet. We are spending 5th highest in the league. We will find out the degree of cap inefficiency at the end of the year, when the final standings are set.

I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that it will exceed the deadweight found in Komisarek's cap hit.
All those other prices are well within range for their production.

As for our spending - currently we're sitting at 8th in the league in total caphits, and if we replaced Komi's caphit with Aulie's, we'd be sitting at 18th.

I'd guess we finish higher than 18th this year, but I guess we'll have to wait and see.

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10-10-2011, 01:37 PM
  #159
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PresidentCamacho View Post
So why wouldn't a higher priority be placed on a GF/GA differential?

There are obvious limitations to what +/- can conclusively state about one singular player, but in the context of Komisarek, he was playing limited 3rd-pairing minutes (a role he should have been able to handle) ineffectively.
In the context of comparing NHL defenceman on team A to NHL defenceman on team B, it's virtually useless, which you know perfectly well. The methodology of that site is lousy.

I already agreed that Komisarek comes in very poorly on a value/$ basis IMO, just not for the reasons that site gives.

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10-10-2011, 01:42 PM
  #160
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actually, I don't even think we're at 8th in spending right now, because it looks like capgeek is including an extra forward in their calculations right now.

Dropping one of our bottom forwards with Connolly returning will have us in 10th-11th right now.

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10-10-2011, 01:48 PM
  #161
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Originally Posted by Squiffy View Post
In the context of comparing NHL defenceman on team A to NHL defenceman on team B, it's virtually useless, which you know perfectly well. The methodology of that site is lousy.

I already agreed that Komisarek comes in very poorly on a value/$ basis IMO, just not for the reasons that site gives.
Every goal-for comes at the expense of a goal-against on another team, such that the "league average" for +/- is obviously 0. For that reason, I put some stock into +/- from team to team but digging deeper, it is likely more useful to analyze the teams +/- plots independently from the other 29 teams. Komisarek and Lebda are still the worst, surprise surprise.

If I was in any sort of braintrust role with the NHL or any team, I would readily implement a Zone-of-Possession statistic.

What zone does the puck, on average, find itself in when X-player/X-line is on the ice, and who has control of it?

That kind of stat would make +/- history.

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10-10-2011, 01:54 PM
  #162
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PresidentCamacho View Post
Every goal-for comes at the expense of a goal-against on another team, such that the "league average" for +/- is obviously 0. For that reason, I put some stock into +/- from team to team but digging deeper, it is likely more useful to analyze the teams +/- plots independently from the other 29 teams. Komisarek and Lebda are still the worst, surprise surprise.

If I was in any sort of braintrust role with the NHL or any team, I would readily implement a Zone-of-Possession statistic.

What zone does the puck, on average, find itself in when X-player/X-line is on the ice, and who has control of it?

That kind of stat would make +/- history.
Definitely has some value comparing players on the same team, yes. Pretty much its only value.

Like your stat idea, if there was only some way to automate it. Most of these realtime stats are so subjective to whom is recording it that it's impossible to place a high degree of value on them, as much as we might love to be able to do that.

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10-10-2011, 01:59 PM
  #163
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It seems some are again using last year as a barometer for the Leafs 2011-2012 success, or lack there of. So far, we've received tremendous value for Kessel, Phaneuf, and Lupul. I realize it's only 2 games but stats/numbers gained in the 1st-2 games actually count toward season stats, unlike last years numbers, which allow nothing more than a prediction.

This is a new team, with new players and new coaches, and a new goalie from the one who skewed so many numbers in the past.

Komo as a $4.5 million defenceman sucks, but the lengths people go to to place blame on the guy is astounding.

Enjoy this season. Let's hope it's not like the last 6, despite those who continue to predict it will.

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10-10-2011, 02:00 PM
  #164
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Originally Posted by Squiffy View Post
Definitely has some value comparing players on the same team, yes. Pretty much its only value.

Like your stat idea, if there was only some way to automate it. Most of these realtime stats are so subjective to whom is recording it that it's impossible to place a high degree of value on them, as much as we might love to be able to do that.
I'd be looking into some sort of RFID/GPS monitoring. The Leafs of all teams could definitely afford to implement such technology.

It's in my opinion that the Leafs should be sparing no expense to improve the team, outside of player salary. Statistical analysis and scouting should be world-class. No excuses.

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10-10-2011, 02:02 PM
  #165
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Originally Posted by dynrehab View Post
It seems some are again using last year as a barometer for the Leafs 2011-2012 success, or lack there of. So far, we've received tremendous value for Kessel, Phaneuf, and Lupul. I realize it's only 2 games but stats/numbers gained in the 1st-2 games actually count toward season stats, unlike last years numbers, which allow nothing more than a prediction.

This is a new team, with new players and new coaches, and a new goalie from the one who skewed so many numbers in the past.

Komo as a $4.5 million defenceman sucks, but the lengths people go to to place blame on the guy is astounding.

Enjoy this season. Let's hope it's not like the last 6, despite those who continue to predict it will.
yes, this.

also, komi will prove people wrong this season.

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Old
10-10-2011, 02:05 PM
  #166
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Originally Posted by Squiffy View Post
Definitely has some value comparing players on the same team, yes. Pretty much its only value.

Like your stat idea, if there was only some way to automate it. Most of these realtime stats are so subjective to whom is recording it that it's impossible to place a high degree of value on them, as much as we might love to be able to do that.
I think the zone is a great idea. You could have computer chips in their skates to make it happen. I had to do a time/motion/distance/ intensity study in college, all done with a video camera and with pen/pencil paper.

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10-10-2011, 02:48 PM
  #167
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Originally Posted by Squiffy View Post
Definitely has some value comparing players on the same team, yes. Pretty much its only value.

Like your stat idea, if there was only some way to automate it. Most of these realtime stats are so subjective to whom is recording it that it's impossible to place a high degree of value on them, as much as we might love to be able to do that.
The only usefulness I find in a +/- is comparing entire pairings. Not individual stats, but actually as a group.

What is the +/-, over a decent amount of time, look like when this 5 are on the ice compared to this 5 (or some pairing breakdown thereof).

The only individual part of it, to me, is comparing when a player is part of the group or not.

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10-10-2011, 03:24 PM
  #168
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Originally Posted by PresidentCamacho View Post
Fixed that for you.

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10-10-2011, 05:23 PM
  #169
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One hypothetical defenseman is paired up with Markov, the other with Lebda. Let's for the sake of arguement assume similar quality of play, and facing similar quality of opponents. Which pairing would be better offensively, and which one would be better defensively. Does the presumed change in +/- indicate the difference in offense, defense or mixture of both?

Using +/- to prove anything about a player's defensive game is dumb.

Even if we ignore the difference between the quality of their partners, there's still the issue with which forward line they spend most of their icetime with. These were the ES minute distributions for Schenn and Komisarek on Saturday night.

 KomiSchenn
Kessel line3 min5 min
Grabo line2 min4.5 min
Armstrong line6 min2.5 min
Orr line1 min1 min

As we can see, Schenn spent twice as much time with the top 6, and half the time with bottom 6 scrubs. Does that mean Schenn is a better defenseman because out of all our D, he happened to spend the most time on the ice with Kessel, who ended up getting a hattrick?

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01-11-2012, 06:30 AM
  #170
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Komi is a great policeman infront of the crease and he is a threat to any forchecker going into the corner with him. he brings leadership, grit, and experience. he has been an elite dmen before and he doesnt have to be one now to be effective. he is basically the perfect 6th defenseman and in a 7 game series he is an absolutely huge factor.

people look at his mediocre puckhandling skills and average at best skating and think he doesnt belong in the NHL. when in fact he is what every team needs. he doesnt need to make plays he needs to prevent them and keep our slot tidy. he does a fine job at this but it is just a part of the game that only sticks out when it turns out negative.

I am just really a big fan of komis (if you couldnt tell ) and always held out hope he would snap out of his funk and resemble the young Habs version of himself. he is close to that now and I think he will have a tremendous season for us.

he is our Derian Hatcher. people cant seem to forget that one boneheaded giveaway against Montreal but the same people discount he was coming off a pretty serious injury and did not have a steady partner for a long time. his confidence was non existent. he also had trouble away from the rink. not a good mix for this market.
i know right


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