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The Draft Analyst: Top-200 Overagers for the 2017 Draft

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05-05-2017, 12:06 PM
  #1
Steve Kournianos
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The Draft Analyst: Top-200 Overagers for the 2017 Draft

http://www.thedraftanalyst.com/ranki...overagers-may/

There were nearly 50 overage players drafted in 2016, and CSB ranked close to 60 of the 400 or so prospects that they ranked in their final list. You have to assume the trend of drafting overagers in the 2nd and 3rd round will continue, but this year's crop of overagers isn't all that great.

I try not to get too caught up in impressive stats with kids who were in their 3rd or 4th year in a junior league. You spend four years playing in the same environment, you're going to put up points or make a lot of saves, especially when opponents you age or older are replaced by 16-year-olds.

Most of my top kids I ranked last year that went undrafted are there around the top of this recent list.

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05-05-2017, 03:28 PM
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Noma
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I'd say three Finnish overagers that are most likely to go in this year's draft are Sebastian Repo, Eetu Luostarinen and Emil Larmi.

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05-05-2017, 03:45 PM
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Connor McDaigle
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Sebastian Aho really should be on there somewhere and Jerry Turkulainen (#109) isn't an OA.

Decent list though.

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05-05-2017, 06:33 PM
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Gigantor The Goalie
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Can't disagree with the Top 3 overager CHL goalies being Stephen Dhillon, Antoine Samuel, and Zach Sawchenko. I still think it's a damn shame that no NHL team reached out to Sawchenko before he made this decision to go into U Sports.

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05-05-2017, 06:45 PM
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Daximus
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gigantor The Goalie View Post
Can't disagree with the Top 3 overager CHL goalies being Stephen Dhillon, Antoine Samuel, and Zach Sawchenko. I still think it's a damn shame that no NHL team reached out to Sawchenko before he made this decision to go into U Sports.
Yeah NHL teams dropped the ball on that one.


Last edited by Daximus: 05-05-2017 at 06:52 PM.
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05-05-2017, 06:53 PM
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Craig Fischer
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I'm really high on the 3 top WHL overagers in your list, I really think Rubins has a great skillset with that big frame, I've been super high on him, unfortunately I don't think he did enough, even as a defender to get drafted. The other two will likely hear their name though. The Bajkovs and Stansky's that come after; I don't like.

It'll be interesting to see if Shyv hears his name. I think it's smarter for teams to take him now than next year when he's the top C at the WJC for Russia - because then you'll get a Korshkov-like effect but I also thought he was a midrounder last year, so I'm not holding my breath.

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05-05-2017, 07:57 PM
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Steve Kournianos
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Connor McDaigle View Post
Sebastian Aho really should be on there somewhere and Jerry Turkulainen (#109) isn't an OA.

Decent list though.
I'm over Aho. Almost four full SHL seasons and was ranked the last two years. Like his puck skills but abysmal defensively. Gave more love to the NCAA underclassmen whose skillsets are similar because they're younger and play for major NCAA programs.

Thanks for pointing out Turkulainen. Don't know how he got there. Must have screwed up the filter on excel. Mikael Hakkarainen now makes the cut.

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05-05-2017, 08:05 PM
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Steve Kournianos
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Craig Fischer View Post
I'm really high on the 3 top WHL overagers in your list, I really think Rubins has a great skillset with that big frame, I've been super high on him, unfortunately I don't think he did enough, even as a defender to get drafted. The other two will likely hear their name though. The Bajkovs and Stansky's that come after; I don't like.

It'll be interesting to see if Shyv hears his name. I think it's smarter for teams to take him now than next year when he's the top C at the WJC for Russia - because then you'll get a Korshkov-like effect but I also thought he was a midrounder last year, so I'm not holding my breath.
Bajkov plays for a defensive-minded system and he plays in all situations. He's got very good skill with the puck, and I think he'd be a 90-point guy on a different WHL team. Granted, it's his fourth year in the league, but his two-way play combined with above-average puck skills earned him a high rank.

Stransky is headed back to the Czech Republic and he clearly has some things keeping him back beyond skating. His playmaking skills are too good to ignore. I'm not anchored to him, but his vision is excellent -- probably better than any player on the list outside of Shvyryov and maybe Geekie. One day I'll find out why teams are universally down on him.


Last edited by Steve Kournianos: 05-05-2017 at 08:19 PM.
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05-05-2017, 08:17 PM
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Pavel Buchnevich
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Ivan Kosorenkov is way taller than 5'10. He's at least 6'0. I agree that he's the best overager in this draft. I had him as I think a 3rd rounder for the last draft, and he's performed this season. No clue how he didn't get drafted, probably Russian factor.

I think you should have Daniil Vovchenko way higher. He's really good. I'd have him no worse than top 10, probably top 5.

Why don't you have Vladislav Sukhachyov listed? Too short? I can understand why one might have him listed low, but to not include him? I really don't know about that.

Sebastian Aho should also probably be listed, and I think you should Gunnarsson and Soderlund higher. Both held their own I thought at the WJC.

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05-05-2017, 08:51 PM
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Steve Kournianos
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pavel Buchnevich View Post
Ivan Kosorenkov is way taller than 5'10. He's at least 6'0. I agree that he's the best overager in this draft. I had him as I think a 3rd rounder for the last draft, and he's performed this season. No clue how he didn't get drafted, probably Russian factor.

I think you should have Daniil Vovchenko way higher. He's really good. I'd have him no worse than top 10, probably top 5.

Why don't you have Vladislav Sukhachyov listed? Too short? I can understand why one might have him listed low, but to not include him? I really don't know about that.

Sebastian Aho should also probably be listed.
Going by the CSB data with Kosorenkov. They're pretty thorough with their measurements.

I get the love for Vovchenko besides the stats. Plays feisty on top of having skill. I'm just not a big fan of guys on their 4th draft look. Repo and Svetlakov are 200-foot players who always impressed me beyond stats/offensive play.

Sukhachyov is small. It's just a deep draft for goalies. Add the Russian factor and you have a guy with a slim chance getting picked. Now, if 6'0 or under goalies get picked this year, he should be a good double-overage prospect next year. I think GMs are too scared to draft a shorter goalie.

And the Aho ship has sailed to me. He is what he is -- a small, quick PPQB who gets beat down defensively in the Swedish League.

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