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Dylan McIlrath - How did he look?

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Old
10-17-2011, 11:53 AM
  #101
Levitate
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I think a lot of the problem with Mcilrath is that he is projected as a top 4 physical stay at home defenseman. Look around the NHL and a majority of the physical top 4 NHL defenseman are probably not top 10 picks in the their draft.

Girardi is a great example. He was undrafted.

With that said. Sather made the pick. Mcilrath now just needs to keep on developing his game and let's see what he can do in the NHL. It may be a few more years before some real good results are seen but patience is needed
On the the other hand, if teams knew that a guy would be a top 4 physical defenseman with some decent puck skills, those guys would go a lot higher in the draft

You're not guaranteed to draft a top 4 physical defenseman by just taking shots at guys in later rounds, least of all ones who are as nasty as McIlrath

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10-17-2011, 11:57 AM
  #102
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I'm so sick and tired of every McIlrath thread/dialogue become about friggin Fowler and Tarsenko. The OP asks how MCILRATH is doing, not anyone else. These clowns just bring up other players that we passed on to try and tear down a kid who, by all accounts, is developing nicely. I wasn't a fan of the pick either, but anyone with half a brain knew this kid was a risky project pick with massive upside. To compare him to players that are much closer to a finished product is beyond idiotic. I can't even fathom the thought process... "Hmmmm, I hate this pick, so maybe I'll compare him to two players that are completely different in almost every way, from how they play, to the position they play, to development curves! That will really get my point accross!" Seriously, what does someone have to do to get unbiased coverage on this kid?

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10-17-2011, 12:24 PM
  #103
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why? cause he did as an 18 year old that no other dman did in 25 years?

ILL GET OVER IT when our pick turns out better in 3-4 YEARS then what fowler did as an 18 yo.
Huh? Cam Fowler last year: 76 games, 40 points, -25.
MDZ rookie year: 80 games, 37 points, -20.

I guess you're right. Nobody had a worse plus minus, while playing with three or four of the best offensive players in the game. He had by far the worst plus minus on his team.

MDZ was later villified. Fowler so far this year: 4 games, no points, -1. Well on his way to being run out of town if he played here.

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10-17-2011, 12:27 PM
  #104
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Originally Posted by Revelation View Post
I'm so sick and tired of every McIlrath thread/dialogue become about friggin Fowler and Tarsenko. The OP asks how MCILRATH is doing, not anyone else. These clowns just bring up other players that we passed on to try and tear down a kid who, by all accounts, is developing nicely. I wasn't a fan of the pick either, but anyone with half a brain knew this kid was a risky project pick with massive upside. To compare him to players that are much closer to a finished product is beyond idiotic. I can't even fathom the thought process... "Hmmmm, I hate this pick, so maybe I'll compare him to two players that are completely different in almost every way, from how they play, to the position they play, to development curves! That will really get my point accross!" Seriously, what does someone have to do to get unbiased coverage on this kid?
Eyes on is the only way. Watching his games. I'm hoping to catch a few.

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10-17-2011, 12:32 PM
  #105
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Another view of Cam Fowler, from Kukla's Korner.

Cam Fowler Has The Worst Team And Zone Adjusted Corsi Rating
by PuckStopsHere on 08/13/11 at 02:21 PM ET
Comments (30)

In an effort to put Corsi ratings into context to make sense of them, I have corrected the raw ratings for both team and zone start effects. Team effects are important because good teams will tend to attempt more shots and have fewer shots taken against them than weaker teams. Zone start effects are important because players who are on the ice for offensive zone faceoffs will tend to take more shots and players who are on the ice for defensive zone faceoffs will tend to have more shots against. This makes a pretty good individual indicator of puck possession abilities. The top players had good seasons and the worst players had weak seasons.

One look at the worst player list shows that Cam Fowler of the Anaheim Ducks was the worst adjusted Corsi player in the league. His -227.12 team and zone adjusted Corsi is the worst among players who played 50 or more games with one team in 2010/11. It is entirely possible that Paul Mara and Brent Sopel did even worse in terms of puck possession, but as they played with two different NHL teams in 10/11, this makes their team adjustments less certain so they are removed from the study.

.......


Last edited by nyr2k2: 10-17-2011 at 01:52 PM. Reason: provide link, no full article quoting please =)
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10-17-2011, 02:22 PM
  #106
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im sick of safe. safe got us the last 10 years of mediocrity.

theres a reason we havent drafted a bonafide difference maker forward since maybe cherepanov. its that whole safe thing.

safe is death as far as im concerned.

i want to draft a magician not a plumber.
Kreider, Miller, Fasth, Thomas all have a high level of skill.

Just because they didnt draft who YOU want, doesn't mean they drafted poorly.

Tarasenko is NOT in the NHL, and may never be.

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10-17-2011, 02:50 PM
  #107
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McIlrath isnt a safe pick though, he's a risky one....one that most of us, including myself, were very much worried about...again though, anyone who got to watch Beuke during his prime with us saw a special player. if Mcilrath becomes that, i would be ECSTATIC. that kind of player is tough to have...a good skating heavy hitting defenseman who can play 25 mins a night and murder someone in a fight....that would be amazing. will he turn out that way? who knows, probably not. but if he does, he would TOTALLY be worth that pick, even if he tops out at like 12 points a season.

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10-17-2011, 03:15 PM
  #108
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McIlrath isnt a safe pick though, he's a risky one....one that most of us, including myself, were very much worried about...again though, anyone who got to watch Beuke during his prime with us saw a special player. if Mcilrath becomes that, i would be ECSTATIC. that kind of player is tough to have...a good skating heavy hitting defenseman who can play 25 mins a night and murder someone in a fight....that would be amazing. will he turn out that way? who knows, probably not. but if he does, he would TOTALLY be worth that pick, even if he tops out at like 12 points a season.
I agree that McIlrath isn't a safe pick and I don't understand why some posters think he is. Probably he projects as a defensive defensemen.

McIlrath is a clear project. He started playing hockey at a high-level quite late in his development, which means he will likely need more time to improve his reading of the game and overall skill level. He also needs to grow into his body as most people that have a large frame do. The Rangers are gambling that they feel his natural ability for the game, his pretty freaking physical ability and his determination for the game, all of which bode well for his long-term development.

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10-17-2011, 08:21 PM
  #109
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On the the other hand, if teams knew that a guy would be a top 4 physical defenseman with some decent puck skills, those guys would go a lot higher in the draft

You're not guaranteed to draft a top 4 physical defenseman by just taking shots at guys in later rounds, least of all ones who are as nasty as McIlrath

I hear you.... However, it is much easier to find/draft a possible stay at home physical top 4 defenseman in later rounds than it is to find a skilled top line forward who can crack the top 25 in points consistently. Picking around 10th overall is usually where these skilled forwards are drafted and not stay at home defenseman.

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10-17-2011, 08:40 PM
  #110
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Originally Posted by msv957 View Post
I hear you.... However, it is much easier to find/draft a possible stay at home physical top 4 defenseman in later rounds than it is to find a skilled top line forward who can crack the top 25 in points consistently. Picking around 10th overall is usually where these skilled forwards are drafted and not stay at home defenseman.
Actually the 10 spot doesn't have the greatest track record of picks being fantastic players or anything (including forwards).

If you want a for sure top line forward, you need to draft top 5 (and even then it's no sure thing). Around 10, and you're getting players with question marks about their game, no matter how attractive they look otherwise

All that said, I still wish they'd taken Tarasenko. I think the Cherepanov incident scared them off of Russians a bit, at least ones that aren't actually already over here and ready to play.

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10-17-2011, 09:36 PM
  #111
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The one thing that I think will make a lot people take a liking to Dylan is size, he hasn't filled out yet, he doesn't have a man's body yet, once he grows into his frame, hits like the one he had on Boulton will be more frequent and devastating. Kids in the dub are afraid of him, afraid, outside of Pronger, name me one defensman that players are afraid of these days? Historically guys like Ulfie, Hatcher, Buek, Stevens have been difference makers on the ice. You can't measure what they do for the team or against the opposition on the stat sheet, but when a teams got defensemen like these, they usually tend to go on long playoff runs.

Ulfie with Pitts '92
Stevens '94-'04
Hatcher '99 '00
Buek 80s oilers '94
Pronger post lockout '06 '07 '10 (with three diff teams)
Chara with the sens and last years Bruins
Denis Potvin

I'm not saying Dylan will be as good as those guys, but take a look at tough, mean physical defensemen and see how many PLAYOFF games they played. Hell put Cory Sarich on a good team and see what he does for them, he's helped win a cup, Brooks Orpik, Doug Murray, all big tough defenseman that make the game easier for their goalie and fellow dmen while punishing and demoralizing the opposition. Guys don't want to play against these guys for a reason. They break the opposition down. This is why he was taken 10th overall. THIS.

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10-17-2011, 10:28 PM
  #112
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.....at Number 8 overall, MacIlrath was one of the riskier picks in the draft with one of the higher upsides. If he gets close to his potential that is.

Kreider was a pretty risky pick coming out of a prep school to be a first rounder. I remember the night he was drafted. They were plenty of LOL's, face palm and head shake emoticons all over HF at that one.

Look at him now.

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10-17-2011, 10:30 PM
  #113
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pizza View Post
.....at Number 8 overall, MacIlrath was one of the riskier picks in the draft with one of the higher upsides. If he gets close to his potential that is.
Number 10. But your point is still valid.

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10-17-2011, 11:36 PM
  #114
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Originally Posted by Mikos87 View Post
The one thing that I think will make a lot people take a liking to Dylan is size, he hasn't filled out yet, he doesn't have a man's body yet, once he grows into his frame, hits like the one he had on Boulton will be more frequent and devastating. Kids in the dub are afraid of him, afraid, outside of Pronger, name me one defensman that players are afraid of these days? Historically guys like Ulfie, Hatcher, Buek, Stevens have been difference makers on the ice. You can't measure what they do for the team or against the opposition on the stat sheet, but when a teams got defensemen like these, they usually tend to go on long playoff runs.

Ulfie with Pitts '92
Stevens '94-'04
Hatcher '99 '00
Buek 80s oilers '94
Pronger post lockout '06 '07 '10 (with three diff teams)
Chara with the sens and last years Bruins
Denis Potvin

I'm not saying Dylan will be as good as those guys, but take a look at tough, mean physical defensemen and see how many PLAYOFF games they played. Hell put Cory Sarich on a good team and see what he does for them, he's helped win a cup, Brooks Orpik, Doug Murray, all big tough defenseman that make the game easier for their goalie and fellow dmen while punishing and demoralizing the opposition. Guys don't want to play against these guys for a reason. They break the opposition down. This is why he was taken 10th overall. THIS.
to be fair...most of those guys have advanced offensive games as well.

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10-18-2011, 01:18 AM
  #115
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Number 10. But your point is still valid.
That's funny. My head for stats hits a glitch now and again. I know you guys will always pick up the slack. I'd love to have another pick w/in the top though.

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10-18-2011, 01:38 AM
  #116
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Huh? Cam Fowler last year: 76 games, 40 points, -25.
MDZ rookie year: 80 games, 37 points, -20.

I guess you're right. Nobody had a worse plus minus, while playing with three or four of the best offensive players in the game. He had by far the worst plus minus on his team.

MDZ was later villified. Fowler so far this year: 4 games, no points, -1. Well on his way to being run out of town if he played here.
thank you

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10-18-2011, 08:46 AM
  #117
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Can someone explain to me the MDZ comparison I always see?

MDZ was a full year older than Fowler in his rookie year?

What Fowler did as an 18 year old was impressive. Not that MDZ wasn't, it's just not the same when one player does it the same year he was drafted.

On McIlrath, I seriously question his lateral movement. His skating doesn't seem good enough to ever be an elite shutdown defender.

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10-18-2011, 08:51 AM
  #118
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What Fowler did was fairly impressive, but not quite as much as people make it out to be. He got most of his points playing on a PP with some of the best offensive players in the entire game. That helps tremendously.

At even strength he was a train wreck in his own end and didn't play NHL caliber hockey. If he wasn't on a team with some serious blueline problems he would have been sent down.

None of that means he'll be a bad player or anything, I just think his rookie season is a bit overrated. edit: and you could say Del Zotto's was a bit overrated as well. I think Del Zotto was more solid overall than Fowler was, but yes he was a year older.

As for McIlrath, yeah his lateral movement needs improvement but I think you need to take into account his big a real big guy who at age 19 isn't even close to being grown into his body. It could improve a lot as he gets comfortable with his size and with more work.

Also, I don't think he's going to be an elite shutdown defenseman. Those are pretty rare as it is, but he can be a good defensive defenseman who lays out big hits, plays nasty, and provides some puck support.

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10-18-2011, 09:20 AM
  #119
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Thanks for the reply.

I do think you're being a little rough on Fowler. The kid averaged 22:07 minutes per game. That indicates to me he wasn't just there out of necessity, they wanted him out there....because they couldve very easily distributed those minutes down to under 20.
The fact that he averaged that much time at his age is bigger than is being stated.

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10-18-2011, 09:24 AM
  #120
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.....at Number 8 overall, MacIlrath was one of the riskier picks in the draft with one of the higher upsides. If he gets close to his potential that is.

Kreider was a pretty risky pick coming out of a prep school to be a first rounder. I remember the night he was drafted. They were plenty of LOL's, face palm and head shake emoticons all over HF at that one.

Look at him now.
Your overall point is valid...

But when you're talking about Kreider and say 'look at him now'...'Now' he's a good college hockey player. Not great, but definitely good.

Kreider is still at the point where he could eventually be an NHL star or an NHL bust...or anywhere in between.

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10-18-2011, 09:45 AM
  #121
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Your overall point is valid...

But when you're talking about Kreider and say 'look at him now'...'Now' he's a good college hockey player. Not great, but definitely good.

Kreider is still at the point where he could eventually be an NHL star or an NHL bust...or anywhere in between.
I think its extremely unlikely that Kreider will bust at this point, but I guess it depends on what you feel constitutes him busting.

If you feel anything less than a Top-6 player is a bust, then yes, I guess he could bust. I know we all expect great things from our 1st Round Draft Picks, but alot of people don't realize just how few players in the 1st Round, especially the mid-to-late 1st Rounders, become impact players.

At this point, barring some ridiculous regression, I feel like Kreider's floor is a very good checking line forward. Maybe a bigger, stronger version of Mason Raymond. He has already shown that he can play at a high level against good competition, and he has none of the physical limitations that can cause smaller players to bust in the NHL.

I'm willing to bet that he becomes a solid 30-30 guy in good time, but I wouldn't consider it a bust if he becomes a guy that can chip in 35-45 points with great 2-way play from the 3rd line. I would be disappointed for sure though, given his potential.

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10-18-2011, 10:54 AM
  #122
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Originally Posted by msv957 View Post
I hear you.... However, it is much easier to find/draft a possible stay at home physical top 4 defenseman in later rounds than it is to find a skilled top line forward who can crack the top 25 in points consistently. Picking around 10th overall is usually where these skilled forwards are drafted and not stay at home defenseman.
Even going back just a few years proves that many teams have taken stay-at-home types at, near, or even above the 10th spot.

2005:
#10 - Luc Bourdon (VAN)
#12 - Marc Staal (NYR)

2006:
None

2007:
#5 - Karl Alzner (WSH)
#10 - Keaton Ellerby (FLA)
#12 - Ryan McDonagh (MTL)
To be fair, McDonagh was projected to bring more offense than the other two.

2008:
#5 - Luke Schenn (TOR)
#13 - Colton Teubert (LAK)

2009:
#9 - Jared Cowen (OTT)

2011:
#10 - Jonas Brodin (MIN)
#11 - Duncan Siemens (COL)

It might be easier to find a defensive d-man in a later round than a high end scoring forward, but McIlrath isn't just any defensive d-man. He's projected to be a 6'5 235lb monster that can effectively patrol the blue line for 22 minutes (or more) a night, drop the gloves when he has to, and make the opposition earn every bit of ice they get. He also has leadership qualities, a good head on his shoulder, and the character the "new" Rangers are all about.

I understand why people are down on the pick, and let's be honest here, there's a lot of hurt feelings on the part of certain posters because "their guy" was passed over. Still, if you look at McIlrath objectively, you can clearly see the progress he's making. It's not on the score sheet, it's only visible with each shift he takes. His gap control is better. His outlet passes are better. His decision making is better. He's growing into his body and clearly feels more comfortable on his skates. If he can reach his full potential, he's going to be the kind of defensemen that every GM wants, and every fan would love to cheer for. If people would start to focus on that, instead of what every player we passed on is doing, he might start getting more respect as a prospect.

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10-18-2011, 10:59 AM
  #123
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At this point in their early careers, Fowler > McIlrath, but I don't know much about Anaheim's defensive depth..i.e. did Fowler have lots of competition to get that slot, or was he basically drafted to fit a hole immediately?

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10-18-2011, 11:02 AM
  #124
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Trxjw View Post
Even going back just a few years proves that many teams have taken stay-at-home types at, near, or even above the 10th spot.

2005:
#10 - Luc Bourdon (VAN)
#12 - Marc Staal (NYR)

2006:
None

2007:
#5 - Karl Alzner (WSH)
#10 - Keaton Ellerby (FLA)
#12 - Ryan McDonagh (MTL)
To be fair, McDonagh was projected to bring more offense than the other two.

2008:
#5 - Luke Schenn (TOR)
#13 - Colton Teubert (LAK)

2009:
#9 - Jared Cowen (OTT)

2011:
#10 - Jonas Brodin (MIN)
#11 - Duncan Siemens (COL)

It might be easier to find a defensive d-man in a later round than a high end scoring forward, but McIlrath isn't just any defensive d-man. He's projected to be a 6'5 235lb monster that can effectively patrol the blue line for 22 minutes (or more) a night, drop the gloves when he has to, and make the opposition earn every bit of ice they get. He also has leadership qualities, a good head on his shoulder, and the character the "new" Rangers are all about.

I understand why people are down on the pick, and let's be honest here, there's a lot of hurt feelings on the part of certain posters because "their guy" was passed over. Still, if you look at McIlrath objectively, you can clearly see the progress he's making. It's not on the score sheet, it's only visible with each shift he takes. His gap control is better. His outlet passes are better. His decision making is better. He's growing into his body and clearly feels more comfortable on his skates. If he can reach his full potential, he's going to be the kind of defensemen that every GM wants, and every fan would love to cheer for. If people would start to focus on that, instead of what every player we passed on is doing, he might start getting more respect as a prospect.
Cuma in 08.

Pysyk in '10.

Tinordi '10.

Klefbom went at 19 last year as well to Edmonton.

Petrovic went in the 1st last year to Folorida.

Oleksiak.

Just a few more off the top of my head.

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10-18-2011, 11:04 AM
  #125
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At this point in their early careers, Fowler > McIlrath, but I don't know much about Anaheim's defensive depth..i.e. did Fowler have lots of competition to get that slot, or was he basically drafted to fit a hole immediately?
They had very little depth back there but he played well in camp.

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