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02-21-2005, 03:36 PM
  #251
LastoftheBrunnenG
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Oceanic39

With a possible cap on the horizon, that next wave of skill guys will be more important than ever.
Well, since there isn't much to talk about, when you get a chance I'd love to hear your TOP 5 Bolt prospects in terms of time until they are ready to impact the NHL. Not in terms of overall potential, just in terms of how close they are to realistically winning a job. If you feel like it.

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02-21-2005, 04:19 PM
  #252
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A list determined by who I think would be most likely to be called up...

It's not a sexy list, it's not a happy list, and it's not a deep list, that's for sure.

If everything were normal today, and choosing from signed prospects, I'd say:

(excluded: Perrin, Skalde, Darby, Willis, Eero)

1. Ryan Craig
.
.
.
2. Nikita Alexeev (familiarity reigns)
3. Nick Tarnasky (he and Craig the only prospects to play in every game; read: not scratched)
4/5. O'Brien/Ranger (pure speculation: I don't think Dicaire's in shape enough yet. If he was, Dicaire gets the 1 or 2 spot).

HM to Egener (I haven't heard what the coach thinks of his play lately and I havent' seen his ice time figures) and Artukhin.

Keep in mind whoever would be called up would be *bottom lining it*, so skill guys may or may not have been as much a consideration. Whatever dman would be brought up would get 6-8 minutes as a #6, or 12 as a #5. Torts would be cautious to play any one of them unless it was a necessity. Affy, Perrin and/or Cibak would be more apt to get scoring line minutes if there was an opening.

I think, with Feaster and success and the lack of trust Torts shows in rookies, the likelihood of anyone jumping right from juniors or NCAA or Europe to the Lightning is minimal. I'd say most dmen will go through 1-3 years of AHL play and forwards close to the same.

I do think that if push came to shove and we had a lot of skill position openings, we'd be okay signing But and Polushin and playing Eero. Craig and Alexeev would be in line for the forwards. There's the top 5 forwards (and I didn't mention Willis or Perrin or Skalde or Darby)

Dicaire, Ranger, O'Brien and Egener would be the dmen in line. I think minor pros would be called up quicker than Ranger/O'Brien/Egener. I believe Feaster still wanted to sign a #7 before the season started.


Last edited by Oceanic39*: 02-21-2005 at 09:48 PM.
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02-22-2005, 11:13 AM
  #253
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Craig and Tarnasky are carrying around a -21 and -24 rating respectively. In both cases their skating/inexperience are a liability defensively. Can't see Torts buying into them 100% at this stage of the game.

1.) Dicaire (Is the 7th d-man as of today IMO)
2.) Alexeev (Will be giftwrapped a checking line job)
3.) Artukhin
4.) Egener
5.) Craig

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02-22-2005, 01:45 PM
  #254
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I think you consider the +/-, but throw it out if the effort is there to use them as a 4th line plugger.

I also think that Ranger/O'Brien are a little less raw than Egener at this point, though Egener's toughness would be hypothetically welcome as a #6.

The way Feaster has gone on and on and on about Craig and Tarnasky (and Deveaux), I think they'd reward work ethic with a cup of coffee. All three would probably take a backseat to the minor-pro's mentioned.

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02-22-2005, 04:09 PM
  #255
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Quote:
I think you consider the +/-, but throw it out if the effort is there to use them as a 4th line plugger.
I tend to disagree given Torts' history... especially in the case of Tarnasky. He's getting no sniff of the NHL any time soon. I think the Lightning and Feaster like to pat themselves on the back for snagging him in the 9th round... but they aren't dillusional about his current talent level (I hope).

Quote:
I also think that Ranger/O'Brien are a little less raw than Egener at this point, though Egener's toughness would be hypothetically welcome as a #6.
Look at Eggs and Dicaire's +/- relative to Ranger and OB's. Ranger has struggled recently and OB struggled during Nov and Dec. Egener and Dicaire have been consistent all the way through and I tend not to worry about Gerard's lack of statistical output because its hard to get assists when the team has no finishers.

Quote:
The way Feaster has gone on and on and on about Craig and Tarnasky (and Deveaux), I think they'd reward work ethic with a cup of coffee.
Deveaux is a pylon. Deveaux almost makes Craig's skating look respectable. I know Dirk Graham thinks Deveaux is a future NHLer... but I don't see it. This guy makes Chris Dingman look like Sergei Fedorov.

Of the three, only Craig would have a chance at a callup IMO... and only based on the fact he's been a leader among fodder in Springfield, not because of the real utility he could offer the Lightning. IMO, a guy like Artukhin would fill the Lightning's needs should one or both of their old warhorses (Taylor or Andreychuk) retire 100% better at this stage than Craig. His skating is just bad... and I shudder to think what facing NHL speed would do to him... and ultimately your checking liner's first responsibility is not to get scored on. Second responsibility: take the body... and Craig's never been a psycho killer in that department either over the course of his career.

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02-22-2005, 04:22 PM
  #256
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He could be a powerplay specialist though, hah. He's like the only reason that they have any sort of percentage in that stat.

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02-24-2005, 12:00 PM
  #257
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Mark Tobin got his 20th last night in a 9-1 Rimouski win. He had 2G and 1A overall... this with Zbynek Hrdel out of the lineup... proving yet again anyone who gets plugged into Rimouski in an offensive role is going to put up stats.

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02-24-2005, 12:33 PM
  #258
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And just to follow up, after a somewhat slow first half, Tobin is now showing marked improvement on last year's numbers even though he still plays primarily on the third line:

'03-'04
69 GP 22-16-38
.551 PPG

'04-'05
59GP 20-24-44
.746 PPG

That's some rock solid improvement... justifying that late 2nd round pick. Next year can he get up to a point a game or will Rimouski's offense collapse if Crosby and Pouliot are out of the equation? We shall see.

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02-24-2005, 01:39 PM
  #259
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Boltprospects
Mark Tobin got his 20th last night in a 9-1 Rimouski win. He had 2G and 1A overall... this with Zbynek Hrdel out of the lineup... proving yet again anyone who gets plugged into Rimouski in an offensive role is going to put up stats.
Yeah, I'm fully on board that bandwagon now.

I think what did it for me was defenseman Mario Scalzo, Jr.:

With Victoriaville: 39 GP, 11-19-30, -21
With Rimouski: 19 GP, 11-32-43, +26

In case you haven't checked in a while, Crosby is at 53 GP, 54-80-134, +60.

Comparison of draft years at Rimouski:
Sidney Crosby: 53 GP, 54-80-134, +60
Brad Richards: 68 GP, 33-82-115, +12
Vincent Lecavalier: 58 GP, 44-71-115, +27

FWIW: Richards' final year with Rimouski (2 seasons after draft year): 63 GP, 71-115-186, +80


Last edited by Oceanic39*: 02-24-2005 at 02:54 PM.
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02-24-2005, 03:09 PM
  #260
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On a similar tack:

At the risk of inciting the wrath of some people on other boards... do a before and after on Dennis and MacDonald's stats pre and post trade from/to London.

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02-24-2005, 03:30 PM
  #261
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Axe, and you shall receive:

Adam Dennis
w/ Guelph: 5-11-6, 2.49 gaa, .930 sv%, 3 SO
w/ London: 7-3-0, 1.60 gaa, .947 sv%, 1 SO

Ryan MacDonald
w/ London: 15-1-0, 2.31 gaa, .926 sv%, 2 SO
w/ Guelph: 2-7-0, 3.13 gaa, .890 sv%, 0 SO

Gerald Coleman, LDN: 28-1-2, 1.68 gaa, .940 sv%, 7 SO

Shots against is actually fairly even between the two clubs. London gives up its share of shots, but shot quality is a different story.

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02-25-2005, 01:26 PM
  #262
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Coleman and the Knights get the win last night 7-3 vs Windsor Spitfires. Coleman's sick stats at 29-1-2, 1.72 GAA, .939 SV%.

Knights have 10 games remaining in the regular season and Coach Hunter loves to rotate his goalies. The big question: Which goalie gets the start in the playoffs?

SLAM! Hockey

P.S.
Quote:
The Knights also clinched first overall, winning the Hamilton Spectator Trophy for the second straight season.
SLAM!


Last edited by missK: 02-25-2005 at 01:32 PM.
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02-25-2005, 02:38 PM
  #263
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Quote:
Originally Posted by missK
Knights have 10 games remaining in the regular season and Coach Hunter loves to rotate his goalies. The big question: Which goalie gets the start in the playoffs?
Even in the playoffs he switches 'em up. Coleman got the start vs. Windsor in the first round last year and nearly had a two-game shutout streak going. They swept Windsor (I believe) and he lost a game in the second round and they went with MacDonald for the rest of the way, losing to MacDonald's new team, Guelph.

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02-25-2005, 03:44 PM
  #264
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So as of right now, we can measure the stat bias at about .8 goals per game and 20 percentage points in the save percentage.

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02-27-2005, 02:08 PM
  #265
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Boutin didn't play last night but he was listed in the Quebec boxscore. Welcome back Boots!

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02-28-2005, 01:48 PM
  #266
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O39 & Boltsprospects...Thanks.

My only comment is about +/-

I'm not a fan of the stat in many cases. I would assume that Craig is hurt by playing more of an offensive role in the AHL then he should be at this point. He's scoring and so I assume they look for him to score more seeing how there's not much on the roster producing. If he's playing 3rd line for Springfield, I'd bet his +/- is much better. Plus I don't trust the stat on a bad team because all players are pressing offensively because they're usually behind.

Paul Yserbaert once lead the NHL in PLUS (high scoring detroit) and with the Bolts lead the NHL in MINUS (40 pt season where he was the #1 centre). It's hard for me to take the stat too seriously.

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02-28-2005, 03:27 PM
  #267
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Tarnasky has played 3rd line most of the season for Springfield and still has the same awful +/- as Craig.

I don't trust the stat as a strict metric but as a relative one I think it works. I would say it's pretty clear Egener and Dicaire have been better defensively than OB and Ranger. Similarly, I think it's fair to say a guy like Artukhin has outperformed Criag and Tarnasky defensively.

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03-01-2005, 09:35 AM
  #268
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LastoftheBrunnenG
O39 & Boltsprospects...Thanks.

My only comment is about +/-

I'm not a fan of the stat in many cases. I would assume that Craig is hurt by playing more of an offensive role in the AHL then he should be at this point. He's scoring and so I assume they look for him to score more seeing how there's not much on the roster producing. If he's playing 3rd line for Springfield, I'd bet his +/- is much better. Plus I don't trust the stat on a bad team because all players are pressing offensively because they're usually behind.

Paul Yserbaert once lead the NHL in PLUS (high scoring detroit) and with the Bolts lead the NHL in MINUS (40 pt season where he was the #1 centre). It's hard for me to take the stat too seriously.
I asked Feaster specifically about concerns over Craig and Tarnasky's +/- and he shot down the stat, impying he wasn't worried at all.

The next day THN Future watch comes out with Tarnasky above Craig - which appears to be a list from Feaster.

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03-01-2005, 02:16 PM
  #269
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Monday night, Gerald Coleman and the Knights shutout Sarnia 4-0. Coleman gets his 8th shutout and 30th win. Knights get their 11th shutout which is a new record.

SLAM! Hockey

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03-03-2005, 04:18 PM
  #270
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With the lack of NHL hockey, I've been following college hockey since it is available on BrightHouse via Fox College Sports and stations like CSTV and NESN via satellite. Here are the Lightning prospect stats as of 3/1/05:


Name- School- Year- Jersey#- Pos- GP PTS +/- SH PIM

Atherton, PJ- U Minnesota- Jr.- #4- D- 12GP 1G/2A/3 +6 13SH 14PIM

Collins, Dusty- U No. Michigan- Soph.- #7- F- 19GP 1G/1A/2 +1 16SH 28PIM

Femenella, Art- U Vermont- Soph.- #15- D- 17GP 0/0/0 -2 6SH 26PIM

Greco, Brady- Colorado Coll.- Jr.- #4- D- 21GP 4G/2A/6 NA NA 22PIM

Lundin, Mike- Maine- Soph.- #2- D- 34GP 1G/12A/13 +10 35SH 2PIM

Rosehill, Jay- U Minn-Duluth- Fresh.- #44- D- 30GP 0G/5A/5 NA NA 93PIM

Smaby, Matt- U North Dakota- Soph.- #27- D- 33GP 1G/2A/3 +1 23SH 66PIM

Toffey, John- U Mass- Jr.- #18- C- 18GP 0G/1A/1 -6 2SH 14PIM

NA = not avail.


The College regular season ends this weekend. Individual league playoffs start 3/10, NCAA playoffs start 3/25. The Frozen Four will be available on ESPN/ESPN2 on April 7th and 9th.

NCAA mens hockey TV schedule


Last edited by missK: 03-03-2005 at 05:05 PM.
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03-09-2005, 10:12 PM
  #271
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http://www.lhjmq.qc.ca/old_lhjmq/sta...EQ_200405.html

There's the Crosby Factor in black and white. Rimouski has 8, count em, EIGHT guys with 20 or more goals.

Don't blink now, or you might miss the assistant trainer's 18th...

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03-10-2005, 08:26 AM
  #272
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Boltprospects
Tarnasky has played 3rd line most of the season for Springfield and still has the same awful +/- as Craig.

I don't trust the stat as a strict metric but as a relative one I think it works. I would say it's pretty clear Egener and Dicaire have been better defensively than OB and Ranger. Similarly, I think it's fair to say a guy like Artukhin has outperformed Criag and Tarnasky defensively.
Help me out...since Tarnasky isn't Craig, what different players did in different situations doesn't seem reasonable to compare. My thinking is that Craig would have a better +/- on the 3rd line. Tarnasky would have a worse one on the 1st/2nd lines. Therefore their seemingly similar +/- aren't telling the same story. ?What am I missing?

If your observations lead you to believe that Craig and Tarnasky are deficient defensively, I'll take your word for it. I'm just skeptical of baseing it on +/- stat. Another example. Last season Lukowich lead all Tampa defenseman in +/- but he sure wasn't the best defensive defenseman on the roster.

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03-10-2005, 09:40 AM
  #273
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I don't think you can make the argument Craig would have a better +/- on a checking line at all. The lion's share of Tarnasky's minuses came the first half of the season when he was playing a shut down line role (except they never shut anyone down) with guys like Deveaux and Soucy playing against the other team's top offensive lines. Those guys' +/- stats got SLAYED as a consequence.

There's a reason why Craig and Tarnasky have much worse +/- stats than Alexeev and Artunkhin IMO. Skating. Period. And I think the +/- stats are symptomatic of that defficiency.

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03-11-2005, 08:50 PM
  #274
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Hrdel's back for Rimouski tonight. L'Oceanic up 6-5 on R-N in the third. No scoring for the Lightning pair. Crosby's got 3-2-5 in just over two periods - and 4 PIM. Good heavens.

Q-site has Boutin in net for Quebec. OT loss. Stopped 30/33.

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03-12-2005, 12:01 PM
  #275
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That's not a terrible first result back for Boutin considering Lewiston pummeled them the game before with Joyal in net.

It'd be awfully nice if the Remparts gave the same goal support to Boots they give to Joyal.

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