HFBoards

Go Back   HFBoards > NHL Western Conference > Central Division > Minnesota Wild
Mobile Hockey's Future Become a Sponsor Site Rules Support Forum vBookie Page 2
Notices

A Look Ahead: 2012 NHL Entry Draft

Closed Thread
 
Thread Tools
Old
03-01-2012, 01:54 PM
  #326
ShutDownDefense
Wild Time!
 
ShutDownDefense's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Country: Canada
Posts: 2,177
vCash: 500
Another mock draft has us picking Reinhart at #9 which is what I want, but I'd be happy if we can move up into the Top 5 or 7 so we can get a better selection. Though I'd be damn happy with Reinhart.

ShutDownDefense is offline  
Old
03-01-2012, 02:03 PM
  #327
squidz*
dun worry he's cool
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: South of the Border
Country: United States
Posts: 11,897
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by J22 View Post
without actually going back and running the numbers, i gotta believe that if they play the next 17 games like they played the last 17, the Wild will be a bottom 5 team
Over our last 19 games we were 6-10-3 for 15 points. Using Jarick's points projections (that is, assuming the Wild's play has no effect on the other bottom teams) that would give us 80 points to just tie for the last lottery pck (#5). Looking at the actual teams, and considering how the trade deadline went for them, there's no way we finish worse than Tampa. That's not going to happen. Buffalo's likely to free fall, but could pick up a few games (Hodgson is playing with the NHL club right?) Carolina's liable to fall off the map. It's really hard for us to finish with a top 5 pick.

As for the teams that would still finish worse than us in that scenario, Columbus has this locked up. They will not pass us. We're currently 9 points ahead of Edmonton. Even if we go 4-14-1 (9 points), Edmonton would need to go 9-9-1 or better to pass us. If we win tonight against Montreal, we'd be 9 points ahead of them with a game in hand. That's a slightly worse points scenario. The Islanders are only 4 points back, but they're also the Islanders...

Suffice it to say, if we win more than 5 of the remaining 19 games, we're extremely unlikely to get a lottery pick.

squidz* is offline  
Old
03-01-2012, 02:05 PM
  #328
Minnesota
Global Moderator
L'Étoile du Nord
 
Minnesota's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: Minnesota
Country: United States
Posts: 16,753
vCash: 1000
Quote:
Originally Posted by OpRedDawn View Post
I know we should probably draft a d-man, but dammit I want a sniper!
We can't really go wrong by drafting any position, except goalie.

We could certainly use defensive prospects, but there's always free-agency. Offense in our prospect pool is definitely our strength, but no prospect is a sure-fire bet.

Minnesota is offline  
Old
03-01-2012, 02:08 PM
  #329
squidz*
dun worry he's cool
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: South of the Border
Country: United States
Posts: 11,897
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by ShutDownDefense View Post
Another mock draft has us picking Reinhart at #9 which is what I want, but I'd be happy if we can move up into the Top 5 or 7 so we can get a better selection. Though I'd be damn happy with Reinhart.
Which mock? I'd rather a different defenseman than Reinhart (although if we're picking 9-11 it's possible he's the "best" remaining) because of how much time I think he needs to develop. He's showing a little offensive flair, and any team that selects him will try develop that more. I'd say he's at least 2 CHL seasons plus 2-3 AHL seasons away from setting foot on NHL ice.

squidz* is offline  
Old
03-01-2012, 02:53 PM
  #330
J22
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 2,130
vCash: 814
Quote:
Originally Posted by squidz View Post
Over our last 19 games we were 6-10-3 for 15 points. Using Jarick's points projections (that is, assuming the Wild's play has no effect on the other bottom teams) that would give us 80 points to just tie for the last lottery pck (#5). Looking at the actual teams, and considering how the trade deadline went for them, there's no way we finish worse than Tampa. That's not going to happen. Buffalo's likely to free fall, but could pick up a few games (Hodgson is playing with the NHL club right?) Carolina's liable to fall off the map. It's really hard for us to finish with a top 5 pick.

As for the teams that would still finish worse than us in that scenario, Columbus has this locked up. They will not pass us. We're currently 9 points ahead of Edmonton. Even if we go 4-14-1 (9 points), Edmonton would need to go 9-9-1 or better to pass us. If we win tonight against Montreal, we'd be 9 points ahead of them with a game in hand. That's a slightly worse points scenario. The Islanders are only 4 points back, but they're also the Islanders...

Suffice it to say, if we win more than 5 of the remaining 19 games, we're extremely unlikely to get a lottery pick.
Ok, so i actually ran the numbers. I didnt bother with Columbus or Edmonton, but did go back and look at the schedules for all of the teams "around" the Wild.

Peg 68 points 17 gms 8-7-2 = 86pts
Cal 67points 19 gms 8-5-6 = 87pts
MN 65points 19 gms 6-10-3 = 80 pts
TOR 65 points 18gms 6-10-2 = 79 pts
TB 64 points 19 gms 12-5-2 = 90 pts
Buff 64 points 18 gms 9-6-3 85 pts
Ana 64 points 18 gms 10-5-3 = 87pts
Car 61 points 19 gms 10-4-5 = 86pts
NYI 61 points 19 gms 9-7-2 = 82 pts
Mon 58 points 18 gms 7-9-2 = 74 pts

So, like I said if things continue like they have, the Wild should be picking top 5
I know this doesnt really mean much, but i think its safe to assume the Wilds pick should end up better than #10

J22 is offline  
Old
03-01-2012, 03:33 PM
  #331
squidz*
dun worry he's cool
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: South of the Border
Country: United States
Posts: 11,897
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by J22 View Post
Ok, so i actually ran the numbers. I didnt bother with Columbus or Edmonton, but did go back and look at the schedules for all of the teams "around" the Wild.

Peg 68 points 17 gms 8-7-2 = 86pts
Cal 67points 19 gms 8-5-6 = 87pts
MN 65points 19 gms 6-10-3 = 80 pts
TOR 65 points 18gms 6-10-2 = 79 pts
TB 64 points 19 gms 12-5-2 = 90 pts
Buff 64 points 18 gms 9-6-3 85 pts
Ana 64 points 18 gms 10-5-3 = 87pts
Car 61 points 19 gms 10-4-5 = 86pts
NYI 61 points 19 gms 9-7-2 = 82 pts
Mon 58 points 18 gms 7-9-2 = 74 pts

So, like I said if things continue like they have, the Wild should be picking top 5
I know this doesnt really mean much, but i think its safe to assume the Wilds pick should end up better than #10
I don't think it's realistic for TB, BUF, CAR, and NYI to finish the year with substantially better streaks than their season as a whole. Anaheim's on a tear, so I won't argue with them going 10-5-3, but if TB, BUF, CAR, and NYI go 40-22-12 (1.24 PPG, equivalent to 102 point season) I might have to eat my shoe. They are a combined 20-13-7 (1.18 PPG) over their respective past 10 games, but that's biased by a 5-1-4 record by Carolina. The other three are 15-12-3 (1.10PPG). At this point, I'd be beyond surprised if more than 2 of those 4 did better than 0.500 win % for the rest of the season.

squidz* is offline  
Old
03-01-2012, 03:54 PM
  #332
J22
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 2,130
vCash: 814
Quote:
Originally Posted by squidz View Post
I don't think it's realistic for TB, BUF, CAR, and NYI to finish the year with substantially better streaks than their season as a whole. Anaheim's on a tear, so I won't argue with them going 10-5-3, but if TB, BUF, CAR, and NYI go 40-22-12 (1.24 PPG, equivalent to 102 point season) I might have to eat my shoe. They are a combined 20-13-7 (1.18 PPG) over their respective past 10 games, but that's biased by a 5-1-4 record by Carolina. The other three are 15-12-3 (1.10PPG). At this point, I'd be beyond surprised if more than 2 of those 4 did better than 0.500 win % for the rest of the season.
I wont dispute any of your arguments other than to say, if you look at the point projections, alot of those teams can afford to give up 5-6 points and still project ahead of the Wild.

IMO if the Wild finnish with 80points, i cant see them picking any worse than 6th

J22 is offline  
Old
03-01-2012, 05:20 PM
  #333
mnwildgophers
Registered User
 
mnwildgophers's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: MN
Country: United States
Posts: 4,497
vCash: 500
I think we'll see the Wild pick from #6-#9. That range is the most likely of happening to be honest, I'm sure most of you could agree with that. If that's the case, we won't get an upper-tiered guy, but I bet we could see a trade down if there's mostly defenseman taken or if we just don't like any of the guys past the first few top tiered guys. I haven't read basically anything about this year's class as far as defenseman go, let's say we do end up grabbing the 7th overall, what defenseman would we be looking at?

mnwildgophers is offline  
Old
03-01-2012, 05:49 PM
  #334
J22
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 2,130
vCash: 814
Quote:
Originally Posted by mnwildgophers View Post
I think we'll see the Wild pick from #6-#9. That range is the most likely of happening to be honest, I'm sure most of you could agree with that. If that's the case, we won't get an upper-tiered guy, but I bet we could see a trade down if there's mostly defenseman taken or if we just don't like any of the guys past the first few top tiered guys. I haven't read basically anything about this year's class as far as defenseman go, let's say we do end up grabbing the 7th overall, what defenseman would we be looking at?
From everything that i have read so far, it seems likely that the top 10 will be made up out of this group.
Yakupov, Grigirenko, Murray, Dumba, Forsberg, Galchenyuk, Trouba, Reilly, Reinhart, Faksa, Ceci, Gaunce, Collberg.

To answer your question about Dmen, I cant see Murray getting out of the top 5, and would be a little surprised if Dumba was available when the Wild pick. I could see any of the other guys making it to the 7-9 spots.

J22 is offline  
Old
03-01-2012, 06:09 PM
  #335
Minnesota
Global Moderator
L'Étoile du Nord
 
Minnesota's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: Minnesota
Country: United States
Posts: 16,753
vCash: 1000
Quote:
Originally Posted by J22 View Post
From everything that i have read so far, it seems likely that the top 10 will be made up out of this group.
Yakupov, Grigirenko, Murray, Dumba, Forsberg, Galchenyuk, Trouba, Reilly, Reinhart, Faksa, Ceci, Gaunce, Collberg.

To answer your question about Dmen, I cant see Murray getting out of the top 5, and would be a little surprised if Dumba was available when the Wild pick. I could see any of the other guys making it to the 7-9 spots.
I fully expect Murray and Dumba to go between 2-4. Trouba I'm not expecting to see drop farther than 6. I'd be extremely excited to snag any of those three. Who knows, though. We could get lucky and see the same thing that happened with Hamilton last year. Gotta hope for a lucky drop!

Minnesota is offline  
Old
03-01-2012, 06:29 PM
  #336
firstroundbust
lacks explosiveness
 
firstroundbust's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: Parts Unknown
Country: United States
Posts: 5,641
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by J22 View Post
From everything that i have read so far, it seems likely that the top 10 will be made up out of this group.
Yakupov, Grigirenko, Murray, Dumba, Forsberg, Galchenyuk, Trouba, Reilly, Reinhart, Faksa, Ceci, Gaunce, Collberg.

Not necessarily true. They might be in the top 10-12 of services/publications/mocks, but it doesn't mean it will shake out that way.

Remember a few years ago Gormley and Fowler were concensus Top 5 ranked and they were picked in the early teens.

firstroundbust is offline  
Old
03-01-2012, 06:51 PM
  #337
mnwildgophers
Registered User
 
mnwildgophers's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: MN
Country: United States
Posts: 4,497
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by J22 View Post
From everything that i have read so far, it seems likely that the top 10 will be made up out of this group.
Yakupov, Grigirenko, Murray, Dumba, Forsberg, Galchenyuk, Trouba, Reilly, Reinhart, Faksa, Ceci, Gaunce, Collberg.

To answer your question about Dmen, I cant see Murray getting out of the top 5, and would be a little surprised if Dumba was available when the Wild pick. I could see any of the other guys making it to the 7-9 spots.
Appreciate it, I've heard all the names before, just haven't really read much about many of them. Well, I say we pick the best D-man available and continue to be patient with the prospects, potentially nabbing two top pairing defenseman in back-to-back years would be huge for this franchise going forward.

mnwildgophers is offline  
Old
03-01-2012, 07:05 PM
  #338
this providence
Chips in Bed Theorem
 
this providence's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: St. Paul
Posts: 9,812
vCash: 500
If the Wild are picking a defenseman highly this coming draft, I hope whoever it is has high end offensive output potential. Otherwise I'd like to see them go forward as I do believe there will be a very good one who drops with the run on defense that seems likely. Though, I'm one of those people who doesn't believe in drafting defensemen all that high. Especially if they don't have a big ceiling.

__________________

After Meaningless Win - 3/29/12 - Game 77 | SoH-"Who knows, that could have cost us a Cup tonight." | Dooohkay
this providence is offline  
Old
03-01-2012, 07:13 PM
  #339
squidz*
dun worry he's cool
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: South of the Border
Country: United States
Posts: 11,897
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by firstroundbust View Post
Not necessarily true. They might be in the top 10-12 of services/publications/mocks, but it doesn't mean it will shake out that way.

Remember a few years ago Gormley and Fowler were concensus Top 5 ranked and they were picked in the early teens.
That's splitting hairs a bit, but at this point it's fair to say that the top 10 is expected to be made out of them. There will probably be a guy picked a little early (like Schiefele) and a guy who drops a bit (like Couturier).

squidz* is offline  
Old
03-01-2012, 07:15 PM
  #340
PuckInTheNards
Registered User
 
PuckInTheNards's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Country: United States
Posts: 826
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jarick View Post
The concept of BPA is bunk because it's based on one of two false assumptions:

1. That there exists some kind of magical prospect ranking which foretells the careers of the prospects to be drafted and is available to all GM's

OR

2. That GM's would confer with their scouts who would unanimously decree one prospect to be clearly better than another, yet the GM would go against all recommendations and draft the inferior prospect to fill an immediate organizational need

Actually considering Risebrough, maybe some GM's are that stupid.

Anyways, #1 is clearly false because otherwise there would be no draft busts. #2 is incredibly difficult to believe. Again, the fate of many multi-million dollar executives and several-hundred-million dollar franchises hang in the balance of these decisions.

When people say "we need to take BPA", it means they have their own personal prospect ranking, and if there's any deviation from that ranking, the GM made a bad move. And considering most people are relying on second or third-hand accounts of players and other scouts' rankings, the opinions really should be taken with a grain of salt.

No GM goes into a draft and tells all the scouts to immediately cross all defensemen, or centers, or left wingers, or goalies off the drat board. It's ludicrous.

Conclusion: any competent GM will take the best player they deem is available at that time, unless they either trade down or up.
You seem to contradict yourself in the very same post. The (actual) concept of BPA is in your conclusion - Any competent GM will take who he deems is the best player on his draft board. He will already have factored in things such as team need, difficulty to fill the position in free agency, etc.

That's what BPA is... so it's not bunk. When a team "drafts for need" it means (to me) that they're going off their board or that they've created a flawed board by (as you pointed out) ignoring defensemen if they feel they need a center, etc.

I went back and read some of the posts... the conflict seems to be that there's no true consensus as to what "BPA" means. If, to you, it means some arbitrary pre-draft list by some pundit, then yeah - I guess it's bunk.

Sorry that got so long winded... It's a weird circular argument that most of us seem to agree on but then say that we disagree. Strange.

PuckInTheNards is offline  
Old
03-01-2012, 08:37 PM
  #341
nickschultzfan
Registered User
 
nickschultzfan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 6,166
vCash: 500
All draft picks are "BPA" in hockey. This isn't football where there is actually a difference between "BPA" and "need."

"Need" generally only factors in when there is a essentially a tie.

nickschultzfan is offline  
Old
03-01-2012, 09:44 PM
  #342
nickschultzfan
Registered User
 
nickschultzfan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 6,166
vCash: 500
We are keeping the tank going tonight.

nickschultzfan is offline  
Old
03-01-2012, 10:54 PM
  #343
J22
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 2,130
vCash: 814
Quote:
Originally Posted by firstroundbust View Post
Not necessarily true. They might be in the top 10-12 of services/publications/mocks, but it doesn't mean it will shake out that way.

Remember a few years ago Gormley and Fowler were concensus Top 5 ranked and they were picked in the early teens.
Well yeah, thats why i used words like "so far" and "likely". I am by no means a draft expert, having said that, I would be surprised if that list doesnt make up atleast 8 of the top 10 picks.

J22 is offline  
Old
03-01-2012, 11:31 PM
  #344
keppel146
We love Bacon
 
keppel146's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: MinneSOta
Country: United States
Posts: 1,243
vCash: 500
between maata, dumba, reinhart, trouba, or reilly, does anyone know if theres a clear winner in this group of D (seems like murray is out of this groups league)? or who do we have a chance at getting?

i know theres rankings but as long as the wild are in the top 10 i feel like we will get a good pick now that fletchers here

keppel146 is offline  
Old
03-01-2012, 11:52 PM
  #345
Minnesota
Global Moderator
L'Étoile du Nord
 
Minnesota's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: Minnesota
Country: United States
Posts: 16,753
vCash: 1000
Quote:
Originally Posted by keppel146 View Post
between maata, dumba, reinhart, trouba, or reilly, does anyone know if theres a clear winner in this group of D (seems like murray is out of this groups league)? or who do we have a chance at getting?
Bold = Guys we definitely have a shot at picking.

Dumba's probably the highest rated out of those prospects you listed.

Minnesota is offline  
Old
03-02-2012, 05:52 AM
  #346
MrGoneWild
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2012
Country: Sweden
Posts: 49
vCash: 500
The way we are going down and more injuries I can see us getting to the 5th or 6th overall pick if we don't win the lottery. That means we most likely will draft one of Forsberg, Dumba, Galchenyuk or Trouba all very good prospects.

MrGoneWild is offline  
Old
03-02-2012, 06:01 AM
  #347
SphinX
#Whytake7whenyouget3
 
SphinX's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Stavanger, Norway
Country: Norway
Posts: 1,522
vCash: 500
In a late round we should draft a 93' from mye hometeam names Matthias Trettenes.

He is a very energic center with puckhandling skills that will most likely turn in to Norways 1 line center..

A 7th is more than worth it.

I actually mailed Wild about a goalie named Lars Volden that use to play in my hometown team but now plays in espoo blues.

For the record he got drafted by Bruins.

And i guess the franchise dosnt care much about fan mail regarding prospects

SphinX is offline  
Old
03-02-2012, 08:48 AM
  #348
squidz*
dun worry he's cool
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: South of the Border
Country: United States
Posts: 11,897
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by keppel146 View Post
between maata, dumba, reinhart, trouba, or reilly, does anyone know if theres a clear winner in this group of D (seems like murray is out of this groups league)? or who do we have a chance at getting?

i know theres rankings but as long as the wild are in the top 10 i feel like we will get a good pick now that fletchers here
At the moment, it looks like Yakupov-Grigorenko go 1-2, Murray-Dumba go 3-4. Of the rest, tyratoku will tell you Trouba's the best. I'll tell you Rielly is the best. You'll probably be able to find someone who says Reinhart's the best. The Finns will try tell you Maatta is the best.

At this point, it seems safe to say the top 3 will be Yak-Grig-Murray. That can always change up until they're picked, but it's where we are now. Dumba is probably picked no later than 6th. Otherwise, 3-10 will likely be made up of (in order of my preference) Galchenyuk, Rielly, Trouba, Ceci, Forsberg, Reinhart, Faksa, and Gaunce.

And because I haven't mentioned it enough, this will change over the next 3.5 months. I'd say that one guy will fall out of the top 10 (probably not Galchenyuk or Rielly as injured top-10 guys rarely fall very far). One person who's not really even being talked about will skyrocket into the top 10, and possibly top 5 (probably a forward, maybe Teravainen?). One team in the top 10 will go "off the board" to select someone expected to go in the 12-15 range. A guy talked about as a possible top 5 will drop to around 10.

squidz* is offline  
Old
03-02-2012, 09:50 AM
  #349
BHoke23
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 76
vCash: 500
I haven't paid close enough attention to the 2012 draft D-men to know but who are the ones in the top 10 considered to be the best PMD?

I don't like PK Subban's personality much but I have a ton of respect for his playstyle. It's fun to watch a D-man go coast to coast. Something we obviously don't really have.

BHoke23 is offline  
Old
03-02-2012, 09:58 AM
  #350
Jarick
Moderator
Doing Nothing
 
Jarick's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: St Paul, MN
Country: United States
Posts: 24,421
vCash: 500
I don't like puck rushing defensemen. Spurgeon can do that, but I'd rather they focus on getting the puck out of trouble and making a good first pass.

Need to dig up some scouting reports on those D names.

Minnesota likely dropping to 8th projected, although still at 9th in terms of win%.

Pythagorean Draft Position
DraftTeamPtsPPGProjOddsHighest
1stCOLUMBUS450.705825.0%1st
2ndEDMONTON560.897518.8%1st
3rdNY ISLANDERS610.957614.2%1st
4thMONTREAL600.927810.7%1st
5thCAROLINA610.95798.1%1st
6thTAMPA BAY641.02816.2%2nd
7thANAHEIM641.00824.7%3rd
8thMINNESOTA661.03833.6%4th
9thBUFFALO661.03832.7%5th
10thTORONTO651.02842.1%6th
11thWINNIPEG701.06871.5%7th
12thCALGARY691.08871.1%8th
13thCOLORADO701.08880.8%9th
14thWASHINGTON691.10900.5%10th
15thDALLAS711.11900.0%15th
16thLOS ANGELES701.09910.0%16th
17thFLORIDA721.14910.0%17th
18thCHICAGO751.15940.0%18th
19thOTTAWA761.17950.0%19th
20thNEW JERSEY751.19960.0%20th
21stSAN JOSE731.16960.0%21st
22ndPHOENIX751.17960.0%22nd
23rdPHILADELPHIA771.221010.0%23rd
24thNASHVILLE811.271030.0%24th
25thPITTSBURGH791.251040.0%25th
26thBOSTON791.271090.0%26th
27thST LOUIS871.341110.0%27th
28thDETROIT871.361120.0%28th
29thVANCOUVER901.381140.0%29th
30thNY RANGERS881.421180.0%30th

Jarick is offline  
Closed Thread

Forum Jump


Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 04:04 AM.

monitoring_string = "e4251c93e2ba248d29da988d93bf5144"
Contact Us - HFBoards - Archive - Privacy Statement - Terms of Use - Advertise - Top - AdChoices

vBulletin Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
HFBoards.com is a property of CraveOnline Media, LLC, an Evolve Media, LLC company. ©2014 All Rights Reserved.