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Sharks Prospect thread 5.0

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Old
11-21-2011, 09:34 AM
  #101
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I wouldn't call it a lull. Bad prospect pools aren't saved by a couple players. We have no depth and not much upside with our top prospects. When you're hoping that your top forward and defense prospects only become a top-6 forward or a top-4 defenseman, you're in trouble. Most guys fall short (Better prospects have fallen short). We could be looking at a bunch of 3rd and 4th liners with a surprise top-6 guy sprinkled in.

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11-21-2011, 09:59 AM
  #102
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Consider also how many young players the team has integrated into their lineup. Couture, McGinn, Desjardins, Demers, Vlasic, and Greiss are all 25 or under, on the NHL roster, and not on the prospect list. Ditto for James Sheppard were he not hurt (and for whatever he's worth). Not saying that would vault them up into the upper echelon of the lists if they did count given that most other teams would get similar boosts, but the young players the team already has on their roster have to count when looking at the future too.

Also consider that Clowe, Pavelski, Mitchell, Burns, and Niemi are under 30 on the roster.

Even if there are no superstars in the pipeline right now, there's enough youth on this team that unless they get gutted they can make it long enough to start restocking the prospect pool while maintaining a decent core group of players for the next 5-7 years. It's not like we're going to fall off the proverbial cliff and end up like the Oilers or the Avs did.

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11-21-2011, 10:10 AM
  #103
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Consider also how many young players the team has integrated into their lineup. Couture, McGinn, Desjardins, Demers, Vlasic, and Greiss are all 25, on the NHL roster, and under and not on the prospect list. Ditto for James Sheppard were he not hurt (and for whatever he's worth). Not saying that would vault them up into the upper echelon of the lists if they did count given that most other teams would get similar boosts, but the young players the team already has on their roster have to count when looking at the future too.

Also consider that Clowe, Pavelski, Mitchell, Burns, and Niemi are under 30 on the roster.

Even if there are no superstars in the pipeline right now, there's enough youth on this team that unless they get gutted they can make it long enough to start restocking the prospect pool while maintaining a decent core group of players for the next 5-7 years. It's not like we're going to fall off the proverbial cliff and end up like the Oilers or the Avs did.
I agree. And as HB said, there is a gap between the graduated prospects and the group in college / CHL and Worcester is suffering for it. Though they'll be young (again) Sgarbossa and Hamilton coming in next year will give the WorSharks some much needed scoring. (I know how you feel about the org. 210/Speed, just looking on the bright side here)

Wilson will be able to start restocking if he doesn't trade away the Sharks 1st and one of the two 2nd round picks as next years draft class is really good.

The Sharks prospects are ranked last for a reason, there's no arguing that, but that doesn't mean they all suck.

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11-21-2011, 10:38 AM
  #104
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Originally Posted by magic school bus View Post
I wouldn't call it a lull. Bad prospect pools aren't saved by a couple players. We have no depth and not much upside with our top prospects. When you're hoping that your top forward and defense prospects only become a top-6 forward or a top-4 defenseman, you're in trouble. Most guys fall short (Better prospects have fallen short). We could be looking at a bunch of 3rd and 4th liners with a surprise top-6 guy sprinkled in.
That completely misses the point I was making.

The point I was making is that players that are expected to amount to nothing tend to turn into star players for the Sharks. We have done so consistently for years and I don't see why that would be any different now. Pavelski would have been thought of as a 'nobody' today if he were drafted this last year. It is tough to evaluate our prospect pool because we don't have a lot of 'sure things'. Sometimes we have a guy like Couture, or sometimes a guy like Coyle develops very quickly and boosts our ranking, but the fact is that because we are such a successful team we tend to need to fly under the radar with our prospects.

Do we have any superstar's in the system? Probably not, but then again Pavelski sure is on the verge of being one and his scouting report said he'd never make the NHL.

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11-21-2011, 10:55 AM
  #105
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Sure, we could have a Pavelski in our pool now. Nobody knows. I just think it's unlikely that we do. We have gotten some good late round steals, but we can't expect that to keep up just because SJ drafted/developed those guys. Scouts and stats are getting much more accurate, and things like that will not happen as much.

I'd love to see that happen for us again, but we're reaching if we're leaning on some 7th round picks and undrafted guys to save us.

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11-21-2011, 12:23 PM
  #106
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That completely misses the point I was making.

The point I was making is that players that are expected to amount to nothing tend to turn into star players for the Sharks.
With all due respect, they tend to turn into flops...which is just like what happens on every other team in the league.

Has SJ gotten some great breaks by having a few low ranked guys turn into very good players? Absolutely, and I bet we can all list them. But the vast majority of low ranked prospects are exactly what they project to be; borderline players to out and out flops.

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11-21-2011, 12:23 PM
  #107
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Originally Posted by magic school bus View Post
Sure, we could have a Pavelski in our pool now. Nobody knows. I just think it's unlikely that we do. We have gotten some good late round steals, but we can't expect that to keep up just because SJ drafted/developed those guys. Scouts and stats are getting much more accurate, and things like that will not happen as much.

I'd love to see that happen for us again, but we're reaching if we're leaning on some 7th round picks and undrafted guys to save us.
Not really. Drafting is as much a crap shoot (for many orgs) today as it ever has been. The only think you can really look at is the history of an org being successful. I think Easy has posted stats a few times that put the Sharks over the last decade in 2nd only behind Detroit for post 2nd round drafting.

Where it does hurt us is trading. Since its much much harder for other teams to look at the Sharks prospect pool and see value (where it very well may be) we end up getting fairly poor value for our prospects and picks. Add on top of that most teams know the Sharks development system is a big reason why these players pan out (and they very well may not pan out for them) and that the Sharks are pretty shrewd about trading away players that look good at a glance but fail totally post trade (Bernier, Toskala, etc) and you have a pretty 'poor' prospect pool in a value sense.

So I'll agree, if you are looking at our prospect pool from a value standpoint, its miserable. If you are simply wondering if the Sharks are going to collapse as a team in a few years because their prospects won't be successful, I don't think you need to worry.

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11-21-2011, 12:27 PM
  #108
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Originally Posted by 210 View Post
With all due respect, they tend to turn into flops...which is just like what happens on every other team in the league.

Has SJ gotten some great breaks by having a few low ranked guys turn into very good players? Absolutely, and I bet we can all list them. But the vast majority of low ranked prospects are exactly what they project to be; borderline players to out and out flops.
I worded that badly. What I meant is that our 'no name' players tend to pan out more often than other teams 'no name' players. We tend to develop more star players from low drafting than almost any other team, at least in the Doug Wilson era.

Part of the problem I think though for Worcester is that many of those players seem to skip the AHL (or play there for a very short time). Like Couture, Pavelski, Vlasic, etc. So for whatever reason, the Sharks tend to develop their best players primarily in college and juniors and end up going straight (or close to it) to the NHL.

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11-21-2011, 12:38 PM
  #109
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Originally Posted by hockeyball View Post
I worded that badly. What I meant is that our 'no name' players tend to pan out more often than other teams 'no name' players. We tend to develop more star players from low drafting than almost any other team, at least in the Doug Wilson era.

Part of the problem I think though for Worcester is that many of those players seem to skip the AHL (or play there for a very short time). Like Couture, Pavelski, Vlasic, etc. So for whatever reason, the Sharks tend to develop their best players primarily in college and juniors and end up going straight (or close to it) to the NHL.
For the most part I agree...which is another reason why I wonder why Roy Sommer is still around.

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11-21-2011, 12:49 PM
  #110
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For the most part I agree...which is another reason why I wonder why Roy Sommer is still around.
Yah that is strange. He really seems to add nothing to the development process. I feel like players that come out of a lengthy stay in Worcester tend to usually end up as bottom-6 players. Is he stunting their development? I'm not sure, but you guys seem to think so (it sounds like) so I'll take your word for it.

The guy really must know where they hid Marty Mcsorely's body...

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11-21-2011, 12:53 PM
  #111
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Sommer better not **** up Viedensky/Hamilton/Sgarbossa/Nieto/Crane ...

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11-21-2011, 01:13 PM
  #112
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Sommer better not **** up Viedensky/Hamilton/Sgarbossa/Nieto/Crane ...
Don 't worry - Wilson will trade them before those last 4 before they see Worcester

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11-21-2011, 01:20 PM
  #113
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Originally Posted by hockeyball View Post
I worded that badly. What I meant is that our 'no name' players tend to pan out more often than other teams 'no name' players. We tend to develop more star players from low drafting than almost any other team, at least in the Doug Wilson era.

Part of the problem I think though for Worcester is that many of those players seem to skip the AHL (or play there for a very short time). Like Couture, Pavelski, Vlasic, etc. So for whatever reason, the Sharks tend to develop their best players primarily in college and juniors and end up going straight (or close to it) to the NHL.
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For the most part I agree...which is another reason why I wonder why Roy Sommer is still around.
While I'm not absolving Sommer of being questionable as a coach, I don't think the success of guys that skip significant time in the AHL is an indictment of Sommer as much as it is simply a factor of those players being better than the guys that end up in Worcester.

And really, how many guys have we had skip playing significant time in the AHL while it's been under Sommer's watch? Marleau, Vlasic, Pavelski, and....? Couture got a half-season in a couple years ago. Braun, if he stays at the NHL level all year, will finish with just over 40 games.

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Yah that is strange. He really seems to add nothing to the development process. I feel like players that come out of a lengthy stay in Worcester tend to usually end up as bottom-6 players. Is he stunting their development? I'm not sure, but you guys seem to think so (it sounds like) so I'll take your word for it.

The guy really must know where they hid Marty Mcsorely's body...
McSorley's body has been reanimated and is serving as a studio analyst for Rogers Sportsnet here in Canada.

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Old
11-21-2011, 04:24 PM
  #114
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I agree. And as HB said, there is a gap between the graduated prospects and the group in college / CHL and Worcester is suffering for it. Though they'll be young (again) Sgarbossa and Hamilton coming in next year will give the WorSharks some much needed scoring. (I know how you feel about the org. 210/Speed, just looking on the bright side here)

Wilson will be able to start restocking if he doesn't trade away the Sharks 1st and one of the two 2nd round picks as next years draft class is really good.

The Sharks prospects are ranked last for a reason, there's no arguing that, but that doesn't mean they all suck.
I think the prospect player ranking is an absolute joke so I cannot take that ranking serious at all. The real prospects for the Sharks seem to be players like Hamilton, Sgarbossa, Viedensky, Stalock, ..maybe Sena Acolatse and Wingels.

Dohorty is laughable imo.. a big, slow, soft offensive D-man is hardly a prospect to me. How does he have better upside than anyone else in the system? he doesn't. I wouldn't trade Braun for him and I definitely would swap any of the others I mentioned.

I do think are system is depleted but I also expect a player or 2 to materialize into a real quality nhl'er.

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11-21-2011, 05:43 PM
  #115
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I think the prospect player ranking is an absolute joke so I cannot take that ranking serious at all. The real prospects for the Sharks seem to be players like Hamilton, Sgarbossa, Viedensky, Stalock, ..maybe Sena Acolatse and Wingels.

Dohorty is laughable imo.. a big, slow, soft offensive D-man is hardly a prospect to me. How does he have better upside than anyone else in the system? he doesn't. I wouldn't trade Braun for him and I definitely would swap any of the others I mentioned.

I do think are system is depleted but I also expect a player or 2 to materialize into a real quality nhl'er.
what?

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11-21-2011, 10:26 PM
  #116
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Originally Posted by dwood16 View Post
I think the prospect player ranking is an absolute joke so I cannot take that ranking serious at all. The real prospects for the Sharks seem to be players like Hamilton, Sgarbossa, Viedensky, Stalock, ..maybe Sena Acolatse and Wingels.

Dohorty is laughable imo.. a big, slow, soft offensive D-man is hardly a prospect to me. How does he have better upside than anyone else in the system? he doesn't. I wouldn't trade Braun for him and I definitely would swap any of the others I mentioned.

I do think are system is depleted but I also expect a player or 2 to materialize into a real quality nhl'er.
He's not slow, nor is he soft. Remember he's a rookie in the AHL atm, he's not going to throw his body at them. Look at Petrecki's rookie season and compare.

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11-22-2011, 10:11 AM
  #117
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He's not slow, nor is he soft. Remember he's a rookie in the AHL atm, he's not going to throw his body at them. Look at Petrecki's rookie season and compare.
Can't really compare him to Petrecki either. They don't play the same game at all. In the time I've seen Doherty, his movements my look slow due to his size, but he covers a lot of ground - it's tough to get by him. Do he use his size to his advantage? Well not like a Petrecki, and of course he's no Chara. But he does his job there. He has jumped into the mix of some after the whistle shove matches - he's in there to stick up for teamates. Another thing I noticed was he plays pretty smart for a rookie (more than Petrecki for sure). For example, if Worcester is in a line change while in the offensive zone (which happens waaaay too often), he will jump in and press the opposition deep so the change can take place, and then gets right back quickly with long strides. He's not going to be exciting at all, but he's going to do his job. He's paired with Petrecki, and we've noticed Petrecki stepping up and showing Doherty the ropes and where to play, move etc. It's a dominating pairing.

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11-22-2011, 10:21 AM
  #118
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Originally Posted by dwood16 View Post
I think the prospect player ranking is an absolute joke so I cannot take that ranking serious at all. The real prospects for the Sharks seem to be players like Hamilton, Sgarbossa, Viedensky, Stalock, ..maybe Sena Acolatse and Wingels.

Dohorty is laughable imo.. a big, slow, soft offensive D-man is hardly a prospect to me. How does he have better upside than anyone else in the system? he doesn't. I wouldn't trade Braun for him and I definitely would swap any of the others I mentioned.

I do think are system is depleted but I also expect a player or 2 to materialize into a real quality nhl'er.
I don't really pay attention to HF's player rankings at all - there are other sources who do Team rankings as well as player ranking that I do look at and the Sharks, as a whole, are anywhere from 25th to dead last depending on what the people doing the ranking values in players (I haven't actually looked in a little while though).

They absolutely have a few prospects who should turn into very good NHLers (don't read that as "impact player"), a few that should turn into average NHLers and a lot that won't ever see an NHL game.

As far a Doherty goes, he has all the tools to be a good defenseman and I can see why he's ranked so high - whether or not he meets his ceiling is another story.


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11-22-2011, 10:49 AM
  #119
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Wolves fan here checking on how NHL teams like thier prospects, and I love all the love Sgarbossa is getting. He's just absolutley exploded offensivly when he got traded to Sudbury from Saginaw last season. Last year he had 7 goals and 20 points in 26 games with Saginaw, after the trade with Sudbury he had 29 goals and 62 points in 37 games.

So far this year he has 13 goals and 27 points in 21 games. I don;t know if it increased ice-time, Trent Cull allowing him to do what he does best or just plain change of scenery but he's been lighting it up for the Wolves.

I just wish I had the OHL Action Pack so I could at least watch some of the games.

EDIT: Also I think him not being on that top prospect list is a crime...but it could also be soem homerism in there too.

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11-22-2011, 03:27 PM
  #120
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Wolves fan here checking on how NHL teams like thier prospects, and I love all the love Sgarbossa is getting. He's just absolutley exploded offensivly when he got traded to Sudbury from Saginaw last season. Last year he had 7 goals and 20 points in 26 games with Saginaw, after the trade with Sudbury he had 29 goals and 62 points in 37 games.

So far this year he has 13 goals and 27 points in 21 games. I don;t know if it increased ice-time, Trent Cull allowing him to do what he does best or just plain change of scenery but he's been lighting it up for the Wolves.

I just wish I had the OHL Action Pack so I could at least watch some of the games.

EDIT: Also I think him not being on that top prospect list is a crime...but it could also be soem homerism in there too.
The hf rankings of sharks prospects are always way off mostly due to hf not having a writer for the sharks. So they get one of the other writers to do a last minute ranking when they don't know anything of our prospects. They see he wasn't drafted and instead just signed to a contract and they think he doesn't hold much value.

I am curious if he will be able to produce at a different level/team or if it is just the perfect situation at Sudbury.

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11-23-2011, 08:48 AM
  #121
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The hf rankings of sharks prospects are always way off mostly due to hf not having a writer for the sharks. So they get one of the other writers to do a last minute ranking when they don't know anything of our prospects. They see he wasn't drafted and instead just signed to a contract and they think he doesn't hold much value.

I am curious if he will be able to produce at a different level/team or if it is just the perfect situation at Sudbury.
I've talked to a few different Junior (CHL) scouts and they all say that Sgarbossa's talent/skills should definitely translate to the NHL. Two of them said he has top 6 upside but that he should be a very good scoring, 2 way, agitating 3rd liner (think Steve Ott). He's moved away froom the agitating a bit this year because Sudbury relies on him a lot in all situations, but I'm guessing he'll need to bring that back into his game when he turns pro.

One of the NHL prospect guys also says he's at the top of the Sharks prospect list when it comes to skaters...

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11-23-2011, 11:55 AM
  #122
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So Petrecki could be an NHLer...but nothing special according to 210?

And Doherty doesn't have a point this season....what is going on with him?

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11-23-2011, 12:09 PM
  #123
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So Petrecki could be an NHLer...but nothing special according to 210?

And Doherty doesn't have a point this season....what is going on with him?
I don't recall saying Petrecki would be nothing special.

And Doherty leads all d-men on the team at +3. With him I'm not worried about points right now, I'm more concerned about him learning to play defense in the pro game...something he seems to be picking up pretty well.

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11-26-2011, 11:39 PM
  #124
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11-27-2011, 12:00 AM
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He had two goals and an assist today!

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