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***FINAL*** 2011-12 Subjective +/- Ratings (see Post #1)

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10-25-2011, 12:50 PM
  #1
tarheelhockey
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***FINAL*** 2011-12 Subjective +/- Ratings (see Post #1)

Thought this might make for an interesting ongoing project. We all know that the big weakness of the +/- stat is that it's context-independent -- if a guy comes off the bench a second before his teammate drunkenly shoots the puck into his own net, he gets a "minus". The idea here is to actually evaluate each goal for and against, assigning pluses and minuses based on context. Guys who actually contributed to the score will have their +/- altered; those who were standing around doing nothing remain even.

Special teams don't count at all.

Ideally this will give us a much more accurate and revealing +/- comparison by the end of the year. If nothing else, it gives us extra ammo to praise or complain after each game

Here's the master list that will be updated after each game. Note the last column. If a decision is disputed or controversial, it will be counted as a +1 in the final column. That will eventually give us a "margin of error" for the final totals.

Player Plus Minus Total Margin Of Error
Forwards
Drayson Bowman 15 3 +12 1
Zach Boychuk 2 1 +1 -
Tim Brent 16 7 +9 3
Zac Dalpe 2 2 even -
Patrick Dwyer 11 6 +5 -
Jussi Jokinen 23 10 +13 1
Chad LaRose 20 12 +8 -
Riley Nash 1 - +1 -
Andreas Nodl 8 3 +5 -
Alexei Ponikarovsky 9 5 +4 -
Tuomo Ruutu 27 10 +17 -
Jerome Samson 3 1 +2 -
Jeff Skinner 26 12 +14 1
Eric Staal 33 22 +11 -
Anthony Stewart 16 8 +8 1
Brandon Sutter 25 10 +15 -
Brett Sutter 3 3 even -
Jiri Tlusty 27 14 +13 1
Defensemen
Bryan Allen 7 20 -13 1
Justin Faulk 7 22 -15 -
Tim Gleason 11 19 -8 1
Jay Harrison 10 29 -19 -
Derek Joslin 3 8 -5 -
Tomas Kaberle 2 10 -8 -
Jamie McBain 17 26 -9 2
Joni Pitkanen 8 13 -5 1
Bobby Sanguinetti 1 - +1 -
Jaroslav Spacek 7 15 -8 -


Last edited by tarheelhockey: 04-12-2012 at 10:54 PM.
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Old
10-25-2011, 12:50 PM
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tarheelhockey
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Game 1 vs Tampa Bay
5-1 loss




ES GOALS FOR
1st 8:07 Skinner (Gleason, Ruutu)
+1 to Skinner for creating the turnover and scoring the goal
+1 to Ruutu for fishing the puck out of the corner
+1 to Gleason for the initial shot
+1 to Staal for the screen on Gleason's shot. I can see how this could be disputed.
Even to Pitkanen as he wasn't involved in the play at all.

ES GOALS AGAINST
2nd 5:19 St. Louis (Stamkos)
-1 to Skinner for the turnover
-1 to Faulk, standing around on the play
-1 to Pitkanen, drive-by defense
-1 to Ruutu as he should have had that rebound or cleared the crease
Even to Staal as he wasn't in the play until the point of desperation.

2nd 12:32 Hall (Thompson, Jones)
-1 to Faulk, terrible pinch
-1 to Kaberle, misplayed the 2-on-1
-1 to Staal, incredibly lazy backcheck
Even to Skinner and Ruutu who were up on the wings.

16:58 Malone (Purcell, Brewer)
-1 to Skinner, overplayed Purcell on the forecheck and didn't get back.
-1 to Staal for poor backchecking
-1 to Harrison for misplaying the 3-on-2
Even to Allen and Ruutu who were doing their jobs.

Totals for the game:
Faulk -2
Gleason +1
Harrison -1
Kaberle -1
Pitkanen -1
Skinner -1
Ruutu even
Staal -1
Everyone else even.


Last edited by tarheelhockey: 10-25-2011 at 01:15 PM.
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10-25-2011, 12:59 PM
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Anton Dubinchuk
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If you're able to keep this tally up for the rest of the year, this is one of the better ideas I've seen on these boards... There won't be much dispute except over each individual play, but the margin of error stat is good as well. Great idea, great concept, let's see if it works out.

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10-25-2011, 01:06 PM
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That's Harrison and not Joanna on the Malone goal.

And honestly, I'd give Harrison a - there. He manned up on Lecavalier even though it was a 3-on-2 and Staal was a few strides behind Malone, which left the passing lane wide open.

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10-25-2011, 01:08 PM
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Game 2 @ Washington
4-3 OTL




ES GOALS FOR
3rd 18:41 Jokinen (Skinner, Staal)
+1 to Pitkanen for keeping the puck in the zone
+1 to Ponikarovsky for winning the board battle
+1 to Staal for the pass
+1 to Skinner for the pass
+1 to Jokinen for burying it
Kaberle even.

ES GOALS AGAINST
2nd 14:28 Semin (Carlson)
-1 to Kaberle for the bad, deep pinch
-1 to Ruutu for failing to cover Kaberle
-1 to Faulk for the obvious
Staal and Skinner even.

2nd 19:39 Chimera (Ward, Alzner)
-1 to Kaberle for bad pinch #2
-1 to Ruutu for atrocious coverage of the puck carrier
Faulk, Skinner, and somebody else (Staal?) even.



Totals for the game:
Faulk -1
Kaberle -2
Jokinen +1
Pitkanen +1
Ponikarovsky +1
Ruutu -2
Skinner +1
Staal +1
Everyone else even.


Last edited by tarheelhockey: 10-25-2011 at 01:33 PM.
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10-25-2011, 01:12 PM
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Pitkanen should get a + on the Jokinen goal for pinching to keep the play alive

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10-25-2011, 01:15 PM
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tarheelhockey
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Anton Dubinsky View Post
That's Harrison and not Joanna on the Malone goal.
Right you are, fixed.

Quote:
And honestly, I'd give Harrison a - there. He manned up on Lecavalier even though it was a 3-on-2 and Staal was a few strides behind Malone, which left the passing lane wide open.
On third look, you're right, it looks like Harrison thought Staal was going to somehow make up 5 feet on Malone. He even waved his stick to make the point that he wasn't covering Malone anymore. I'll put that one back in the "minus" category.

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10-25-2011, 01:15 PM
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I think Chad should get + for every goal on both teams. Because he's so damn dreamy.

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10-25-2011, 01:19 PM
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tarheelhockey
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Anton Dubinsky View Post
Pitkanen should get a + on the Jokinen goal for pinching to keep the play alive
Did he? The replay picks up while he's backing away from the play so it's hard to tell what role he had. I can't seem to find a full replay... anybody?

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10-25-2011, 01:31 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tarheelhockey View Post
Did he? The replay picks up while he's backing away from the play so it's hard to tell what role he had. I can't seem to find a full replay... anybody?
I'm way too lazy to capture/upload video right now, so:



Puck is sent up along the boards to Halpern (#15), Pitkanen (upper left) seals the wall and knocks Halpern off the puck

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10-25-2011, 01:32 PM
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tarheelhockey
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Oh yeah, that's clear enough. +1 for Pitkanen.

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10-25-2011, 01:43 PM
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Love the idea, but my only concern is, what happens to the +/- if the fault lies with the goaltender (ala Ladd's goal against Boucher). Would everyone remain even?

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10-25-2011, 01:45 PM
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+/-
The most useless stat in the sport. Coaches know who does the work and who doesn't, and don't need a number to quantify that. In high school they didn't even keep it as a stat when I played. I didn't know what it was till I started following advanced stats when I stopped playing and followed the pros more. Pretty sure if it wasnt for fantasy sports we would never even refer to it. It says nothing to the quality of your defensive play.

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10-25-2011, 01:48 PM
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I appreciate the concept of trying to put blame where it belongs though. Don't think it'll truly bear fruit. I dont care about kaberles stats as long as he helps the pp, which he does, and doesn't let guys just go around him, which he doesn't. I don't care if he makes an errant breakout pass or a bad pinch. He makes so many good ones he makes up for it. Not to make this all about him, just an example.

Curious to see how this turns out though, it's a good thought

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10-25-2011, 01:54 PM
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tarheelhockey
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Anton Bomb View Post
Love the idea, but my only concern is, what happens to the +/- if the fault lies with the goaltender (ala Ladd's goal against Boucher). Would everyone remain even?
Yeah, as long as the players are doing their jobs they shouldn't be penalized for a goalie's error.

There could be a controversial point or two involved, such as Seguin's goal on Ward. IMO, it was just a laser of a shot, but there was some discussion about the defenseman allowing him too much space.

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10-25-2011, 02:17 PM
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Game 3 @ New Jersey
4-2 L




ES GOALS FOR
2nd 8:56 Ponikarovsky (Gleason, Allen)
+1 Ponikarovsky for the tip-in
+1 Gleason for the well-timed shot
+1 Allen for keeping the puck at the blue line
+1 Dwyer for keeping the cycle alive after the first, missed shot
+1 Sutter for the screen
A five-man goal!

2nd 12:47 LaRose (Skinner, Allen)
+1 to Allen for the turnover
+1 to LaRose for the shot
Staal and Gleason even.
edit: Skinner gets a mark in the "margin of error" column as I'm not sure whether he intended to redirect that puck to LaRose.

ES GOALS AGAINST
1st 3:59 Parise (Elias, Sykora)
-1 Skinner for failing to cover the high slot
-1 Harrison for getting beaten to the rebound
Kaberle, LaRose, Staal even.

2nd 9:36 Fayne (Kovalchuk, Palmieri)
-1 Staal for turning the puck over and getting beaten up-ice by the goal scorer
-1 to Faulk for a bad pinch
-1 to Skinner for a poor defensive read
Pitkanen, LaRose even.

3rd 6:06 Kovalchuk (Josefson, Palmieri)
-1 to Stewart for the turnover
-1 to Ruutu for putting Stewart in a position to make that turnover
-1 to Faulk for poor crease coverage
Staal, Pitkanen even.


Totals for the game:
+2 Allen
+1 Dwyer
-1 Faulk
+1 Gleason
-1 Harrison
+1 LaRose
+1 Ponikarovsky
-1 Ruutu
-1 Skinner
-1 Stewart
+1 Sutter

Everyone else even.

That's it for today, I'll add a few more tomorrow to try and get us caught up to present.


Last edited by tarheelhockey: 10-25-2011 at 02:53 PM.
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10-25-2011, 02:29 PM
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I'd say if it's undecided, leave it even. It should even out over the course of a season. Though it looked like Skinner simply overskated the puck to me.

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10-25-2011, 02:35 PM
  #18
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I must say this is a fantastic idea. Sounds similar to something coaches would do while breaking down film and evaluating play. Wasn't it Boudreau on 24/7 that said they grade every player 1-5 after each game?

And to Bleedgreen: At worst, it gives us something else to talk about besides Chad LaRose.

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10-25-2011, 02:39 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Anton Bomb View Post
I'd say if it's undecided, leave it even. It should even out over the course of a season. Though it looked like Skinner simply overskated the puck to me.
But if Skinner doesn't have the puck hit him, who says Larose can even settle it to walk in and get the shot? Seems pretty important to me.

That isn't to say Larose would have missed the bouncing puck. He never misses.

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10-25-2011, 02:46 PM
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tarheelhockey
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Anton Bomb View Post
I'd say if it's undecided, leave it even. It should even out over the course of a season. Though it looked like Skinner simply overskated the puck to me.
Yeah, it looked to me like he overskated it and I wouldn't have even given it a thought if they hadn't awarded Skinner the assist. That made me go back and look a couple more times, and now I'm not sure if he was completely oblivious, or knew he was overskating and directed it with his skate. Skinner is the kind of player who would do something like that in a split-second situation.

I dunno, maybe this is a "margin for error" situation. Unless there's some other replay out there.

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10-25-2011, 02:54 PM
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Since we're talking about statistics and applying additional context to them I have a question and a related suggestion. When a player is booted out of the faceoff circle does it count as a loss? I'm going to assume it does not but I'd like to see it count. I counted at least two against Staal last game and it appeared he was waving the white flag. Clearly Staal needs a center on his wing.

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10-26-2011, 01:58 PM
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Game 4 vs Boston
3-2 W




ES GOALS FOR
3rd 3:42 Stewart (Brent, Gleason)
+1 Stewart for doing most of the work
+1 Brent for winning a board battle against Seidenberg
+1 Gleason for the cycle pass
Dalpe, Allen even.

3rd 13:32 Tlusty (Sutter, Dwyer)
+1 Dwyer for causing turnover #1
+1 Sutter for causing turnover #2
+1 Tlusty for finishing it off
Gleason, Allen even.

ES GOALS AGAINST
3rd 4:07 Seguin (Horton, McQuaid)
In my opinion, this was on Ward. I'm going to put "margin of error" points on McBain and Pitkanen as they could conceivably have played it better to deny the shot.

3rd 16:35 Marchand (Bergeron, Corvo)
-1 to Sutter for leaving the slot but failing to get to Bergeron in time
-1 to Tlusty for failing to cut off the pass and redirecting it to Marchand
Dwyer, McBain, Pitkanen even.

Totals for the game:
Brent +1
Dwyer +1
Gleason +1
Stewart +1
Margin of error -1 for McBain, Pitkanen
All others even.


Last edited by tarheelhockey: 10-26-2011 at 02:27 PM.
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10-26-2011, 02:13 PM
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Gleason and Allen were the defensemen on the ice for Tlusty's goal. You can see the "A" on Gleason's jersey at 1:16, and Allen comes in from the bottom corner of the screen at 1:22.

As for Seguin's goal, given Ward's tendencies to play the glove low (and thus, get beaten on that shot high), I'd say it's on him. Though I still question what McBain was doing at the red line when the play began.

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10-26-2011, 02:24 PM
  #24
tarheelhockey
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Game 5 @ Buffalo
4-3 W




ES GOALS FOR
1st 8:20 Ponikarovsky (Harrison, McBain)
+1 Ruutu for digging the puck out of the corner
+1 McBain for the swing pass
+1 Harrison for the shot
+1 LaRose for the screen
+1 Ponikarovsky for the tip
This was the second 5-man goal of the season!

ES GOALS AGAINST
1st 6:58 Vanek (Leopold)
-1 Kaberle for missing the outlet pass
-1 Pitkanen for failing to cover Vanek after the turnover
Staal and Jokinen even, though Jokinen probably deserves a minus for leaving Roy open.

1st 10:01 Roy (Stafford, Ehrhoff)
-1 Staal for getting beaten cleanly by Roy
-1 Harrison for the bad pinch to start the rush (let me know if I have the wrong guy here)
Skinner, LaRose, Kaberle even.

3rd 17:39 Stafford (Myers, Sekera)
-1 to Pitkanen for failing to contain Myers
-1 to Harrison for misreading the initial bounce, then not clearing the crease
Ruutu, Ponikarovsky, Staal even.

Totals for the game:
-1 Harrison
-1 Kaberle
+1 LaRose
+1 McBain
-2 Pitkanen
+1 Ponikarovsky
+1 Ruutu
-1 Staal
Everyone else even.

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10-26-2011, 02:28 PM
  #25
tarheelhockey
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Anton Bomb View Post
Gleason and Allen were the defensemen on the ice for Tlusty's goal. You can see the "A" on Gleason's jersey at 1:16, and Allen comes in from the bottom corner of the screen at 1:22.
Thanks for that, fixed.

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