I think this system is UNDER playing the importance that a Center has defensively. Not enough - when they aren't getting back into the play defensively. Staal has probably been the worst defensive 1st line Center in the league this year but he's even in your system.
That's quite possible, but I'm not sure a more accurate system would be achievable without asking the coach exactly what the center was instructed to do on each GA. I would imagine that Staal has a green light to pinch up, not to mention Mo had them running a fairly aggressive forecheck at times. In theory his +/- would even out because he would produce more offense.
I know you're only tracking ES goals here, but since this is subjective +/-, would it be totally unfair to ALSO give a - to an player who puts us on a PK that we are scored against? Would add some additional context to the "all-around" play/contributions/detriment.
2nd 18:41 McBain (Pitkanen, Stewart)
This goal was scored on a delayed penalty, but the 6th man was not yet on the ice. I'll count it.
+1 Pitkanen for some pretty good QB'ing throughout the shift
+1 Stewart, good entry down the sidewall and good netfront presence
+1 McBain with the shot
+1 Skinner for being right in the line of fire
+1 Staal for netfront presence
Overall a great shift for all 5 guys.
ES GOALS AGAINST
2nd 8:34 Adams (Crosby, Kunitz)
-1 LaRose, poke-check fail
-1 Jokinen, soft on Crosby in the corner and then drifts away putting Joslin in a bad spot
-1 Joslin, got caught up-ice in the first place, then left his man to cover for Jokinen but didn't seal the passing lane
Ponikarovsky, Allen even.
3rd 8:33 Asham (Adams, Martin)
-1 Kaberle, playing defense with his back to the puck
-1 Skinner, got caught out of position on the rush
Staal, Jokinen, Allen even
3rd 10:00 Dupuis (Niskanen, Malkin)
-1 Faulk, just plain weak on the puck
-1 Gleason, poking at the puck instead of taking it or the man with conviction
LaRose, Jokinen even.
Totals for the game:
+1 McBain
+1 Pitkanen
+1 Staal
+1 Stewart
-1 Faulk
-1 Gleason
-1 Jokinen
-1 Joslin
-1 Kaberle
-1 LaRose
2nd 13:16 Brent (Staal, Kaberle)
+1 Brent, not just for the goal but for keeping the play alive on the previous rebound
+1 Staal for good work down low
+1 Kaberle for a tough shot that Kiprusoff couldn't control
Skinner, Allen even.
3rd 6:41 Ruutu (McBain)
+1 McBain for a nice breakout pass and shot
+1 Ruutu for the tip-in as well as the entry work
Skinner, Jokinen, Joslin even.
3rd 13:42 Staal (unassisted)
+1 Staal because, well, he stole the puck and scored.
Stewart, Dwyer, Faulk, Kaberle even.
3rd 19:28 LaRose (Ponikarovsky, Brent)
+1 Brent for hustling to cause a turnover
+1 Ponikarovsky for getting the puck to the net
+1 LaRose for finish
Gleason, Mystery Defenseman even.
3rd 19:55 Staal (McBain, Kaberle)
+1 Staal for the goal
+1 McBain for keeping the rebound alive and getting it back to the net
+1 Ruutu for the net-front presence
Skinner, Kaberle even.
ES GOALS AGAINST
1st 3:07 Iginla (Jokinen, Morrison)
-1 Faulk, got burned badly
-1 Sutter for chasing his man behind the net
Gleason, Tlusty, Dwyer even.
1st 18:51 Stempniak (Comeau, Bouwmeester)
-1 Pitkanen, caught standing around watching the game
-1 McBain, you have to get a stick on that pass
-1 Brent, weak stick check after being slow to recognize the play
Skinner, Staal even
2nd 0:42 Morrison (Jokinen)
-1 Staal for getting beaten on the pinch
-1 McBain for fumbling the puck right back into the crease
Allen, Ruutu, Skinner even
2nd 14:06 Bourque (unassisted)
-1 Joslin for doing it wrong
Ruutu, Jokinen, McBain, Ponikarovsky even
3rd 1:22 Morrison (Iginla, Brodie)
-1 McBain for awful, awful lane coverage
-1 Jokinen for failing to stop a very obvious pass
-1 Joslin for getting caught up ice
Skinner, Ruutu even
2nd 11:47 Dwyer (Staal, Kaberle)
+1 Kaberle with a really nice pass up ice
+1 Staal with a really nice setup pass
+1 Dwyer with a really nice move to the net
Faulk and Tlusty did nothing nice, they stay even.
3rd 3:43 Ruutu (Jokinen, Gleason)
+1 Gleason for a really nifty pass
+1 Jokinen for another pretty good pass
+1 Ruutu for the finish
McBain, Skinner even
ES GOALS AGAINST
1st 10:33 Belanger (Pajaarvi, Sutton)
-1 Brent for leaving McBain in a 1-on-2 in front, failing to get the puck out of the corner, then having a big hand in the chaos in the crease
Try as I might to find other minuses here, everyone else was doing more or less what they were supposed to do.
McBain, Sutter, Ponikarovsky, Gleason even.
2nd 15:50 Eager (Petrell, Lander)
This goal was scored just as a penalty expired and won't be counted. You're welcome, Justin Faulk.
3rd 13:21 Nugent-Hopkins (Gagner, Eberle)
-1 Joslin for a crazy-slow reaction to that rebound and then letting RNH right to the net
-1 Gleason for a weak check on Gagner
Ponikarovsky, LaRose, Brent even
Totals for the game:
+1 Dwyer
+1 Jokinen
+1 Kaberle
+1 Ruutu
+1 Staal
-1 Brent
-1 Joslin
3rd 8:24 Faulk (Spacek, Staal)
+1 Spacek who made 2 smart, nice passes on the sequence
+1 Tlusty for a very smart pass on the entry
+1 Staal with a good move along the boards
+1 Faulk for a smart shot
+1 Dwyer for good work in front of the net
ES GOALS AGAINST
1st 0:34 Byfuglien (Wheeler)
-1 McBain, because bad as this was on Ward, it happened as a direct result of that awful turnover.
Dwyer, Gleason, Tlusty, Staal even.
1st 5:04 Kane (Wheeler)
-1 Staal, just weak on the loose puck
-1 Gleason, beaten by Kane in a foot race then beaten again on the shot
-1 McBain, allowing his man to crawl all over Ward
Dwyer, Nodl even
Interesting that only one forward is an overall minus (and a mere -1, at that), and none of the defensemen are an overall plus. It stands to reason, given how hard folks on this board have come down on defensemen in the past.
This is the first time I've glanced at this thread, so in no way do I see specific evidence of this anywhere, but it's hard to ignore the possibility of bias and/or a fundamental misunderstanding of where responsibility lies.
Again, not being critical of the assessments done so far, just noting the interesting overall score by position.
Interesting that only one forward is an overall minus (and a mere -1, at that), and none of the defensemen are an overall plus. It stands to reason, given how hard folks on this board have come down on defensemen in the past.
This is the first time I've glanced at this thread, so in no way do I see specific evidence of this anywhere, but it's hard to ignore the possibility of bias and/or a fundamental misunderstanding of where responsibility lies.
Again, not being critical of the assessments done so far, just noting the interesting overall score by position.
I think it points out an obvious flaw. The defensemen are much more porne to being blamed even when the original blown assignment was by the forward up the ice. Its a bit like personal foul calls in football, the second guy gets caught. in this case the last guy to lose a battle tends to get a minus alot more often than the guy that the mistake a few seconds earlier. The final line of defense is clearly at a disadvantage in this system.
IMO for a second straight season the forwards have been far wrose defensively than the dmen. We just dont have a backend group good enough to erase mistakes from up front.
I think the reason is obvious. More often than not, the goals against are off a turnover in the defensive zone or a defenseman screening a goalie, etc. More often than not, the goals for have very little to do with the defenseman, and when they do, it's just one defenseman at a time.
I wrote a post on the previous page addresses that point. In a nutshell, I believe the underlying problem is with the "real" plus-minus stat and the way it merges responsibility for GF and GA into a catch-all number. In reality, very few forwards are bad enough to be responsible for more GA than GF (and the opposite for dmen). The more useful thing is to look at those columns separately and see how the players are performing in each zone.
For example, Staal and Dwyer have the same +/- on the surface, but when you look at their GF and GA columns it's obvious that they had completely different underlying figures.
I think it points out an obvious flaw. The defensemen are much more porne to being blamed even when the original blown assignment was by the forward up the ice. Its a bit like personal foul calls in football, the second guy gets caught. in this case the last guy to lose a battle tends to get a minus alot more often than the guy that the mistake a few seconds earlier. The final line of defense is clearly at a disadvantage in this system.
To the extent that I'm able, I start counting minuses from the most recent moment that the defense was "set" with everyone in position. There should be a fairly minimal number of times a player "gets away" with a minus.
One number that could help as a supplement would be turnovers, since a forward is much more likely to give an opponent possession via turnover than to make a goal-deciding error on defense. Likewise Defensemen and takeaways.
Quote:
IMO for a second straight season the forwards have been far wrose defensively than the dmen. We just dont have a backend group good enough to erase mistakes from up front.
I think we'd see that opinion borne out in this system, if only we had last year's stats compiled as well. In fact, we could drill down to exactly which forwards have been the weak links.
I think it points out an obvious flaw. The defensemen are much more porne to being blamed even when the original blown assignment was by the forward up the ice. Its a bit like personal foul calls in football, the second guy gets caught. in this case the last guy to lose a battle tends to get a minus alot more often than the guy that the mistake a few seconds earlier. The final line of defense is clearly at a disadvantage in this system.
IMO for a second straight season the forwards have been far wrose defensively than the dmen. We just dont have a backend group good enough to erase mistakes from up front.
Our defensemen are porn? No no, you seem to be confused, it's only Tlusty that is porn.
3rd 15:46 Connolly (MacArthur, Armstrong)
-1 Allen
-1 Brent
Allen, Joslen, Ruutu, Ponikarovsky even
This is a tough one. I feel that Allen was playing Connolly properly, but got picked by Armstrong at the last instant and didn't react quickly enough to get his stick tied up. Brent had his back to the play and was just trying to tie up Armstrong, not reading that the intent of the play was to get Connolly around the front of the screen for a tip-in. And to some extent it was just a nifty, almost-unstoppable play by Connolly. I'm going to give both Brent and Allen a +1 in the "Margin of Error" column because this one is pretty much a judgment call on which, if either, of them was actually making a wrong play.
OT 0:44 Connolly (Lupul, Franson)
Faulk, Spacek, Sutter, Ponikarovsky even
I can't fault the defense here. Ward has to stop a long slapshot cleanly or at least put the rebound to the side. Faulk left Connolly in order to actually make a pretty good play to get the rolling puck away from the empty net, and it took a chance bounce right back in front. Spacek made the right play on Lupul, Ponikarovsky was late getting to Connolly because it wasn't his man, and Sutter had no chance to do anything from his position.
Totals for the game
-1 Allen
-1 Brent
"Margin of Error" points to Brent and Allen
I'm going to give both Brent and Allen a +1 in the "Margin of Error" column because this one is pretty much a judgment call on which, if either, of them was actually making a wrong play.
Put yourself in their skates...sweat rolling in your eyes, out of breath, struggling for position...take away your gift of hindsight, and then figure out how you would have played it differently.
Put yourself in their skates...sweat rolling in your eyes, out of breath, struggling for position...take away your gift of hindsight, and then figure out how you would have played it differently.
And then don't, because you're kidding yourself.
It was just a good play by Connolly.
I don't disagree. It was a defend-able play, though, if they play the pick properly. Judgment calls like this are why the MOE column is there, so we don't necessarily have to find a black-and-white answer.
2nd 15:52 Bowman (Stewart, McBain)
+1 McBain for the crucial keep-in at the point
+1 Stewart, who made a nice play out of the corner
+1 Bowman for going hard to the net with his stick down
Staal, Spacek even
2nd 19:08 Ruutu (Allen, Jokinen)
+1 Ponikarovsky for a nice play to keep the puck in the zone
+1 Jokinen for making the smart place to Allen
+1 Allen, nice shot
+1 Ruutu, nice screen
Gleason even
3rd 0:37 Bowman (LaRose, Sutter)
+1 LaRose for a great bit of forechecking
+1 Bowman, clearly an elite sniper at this level
Sutter, McBain, Gleason even
ES GOALS AGAINST
1st 5:19 Bieksa (Higgins, Kesler)
-1 LaRose seeing as he was supposed to have the high slot and point man covered
-1 Spacek, who got overwhelmed in front and did a great job screening Ward
Sutter, McBain, Bowman even
2nd 9:51 Raymond (Sedin, Burrows)
-1 Staal, who was supposed to have Raymond
-1 McBain for a slow stick on that pass
-1 Bowman on Boom Boom Anton's recommendation
Gleason, Dwyer even
3rd 8:40 Burrows (Sedin, Raymond)
-1 Sutter for an absolutely horrific turnover
-1 Tlusty for skating a wide, lazy circle back to Sedin instead of making a sharp defensive transition
-1 Gleason, who got flat-out beaten on the rebound
McBain, LaRose even
Totals for the game
+1 Allen
+1 Bowman
+1 Jokinen
+1 Ponikarovsky
+1 Ruutu
+1 Stewart
-1 Gleason
-1 Spacek
-1 Staal
-1 Sutter
-1 Tlusty
Last edited by tarheelhockey: 12-19-2011 at 08:40 AM.
FWIW, this is how the real-life +/- stat differs from this method:
Player
Real-Life
Subjective
Difference
Forwards
Drayson Bowman
even
+2
+2
Zach Boychuk
-1
+1
+2
Tim Brent
-4
+2
+6
Zac Dalpe
-1
-1
even
Patrick Dwyer
-2
+3
+5
Jussi Jokinen
-1
+7
+8
Chad LaRose
-15
+2
+17
Andreas Nodl
-1
-2
-1
Alexei Ponikarovsky
-11
+3
+14
Tuomo Ruutu
-2
+7
+9
Jeff Skinner
-6
+7
+13
Eric Staal
-18
+2
+20
Anthony Stewart
+1
+2
+1
Brandon Sutter
-7
+3
+10
Brett Sutter
-1
even
+1
Jiri Tlusty
-6
+1
+7
Defensemen
Bryan Allen
-1
-4
-3
Justin Faulk
-9
-3
+6
Tim Gleason
-1
-2
-1
Jay Harrison
-5
-7
-2
Derek Joslin
-7
-3
+4
Tomas Kaberle
-12
-8
+4
Jamie McBain
-2
-2
even
Joni Pitkanen
-10
-5
+5
Jaroslav Spacek
even
-1
-1
NOTE: This table is just raw data, and not meant to be taken as any kind of final analysis. It would be incorrect, in my opinion, to draw conclusions about anything from this table alone. I plan to find a method of adjusting the numbers into a meaningful form, such as factoring in team performance and TOI. For now, this table simply tracks the divergence of real-life +/- from what it would be if "random" pluses and minuses were excluded.
EDIT: I suppose you could conclude, in a very rough sense, that a handful of forwards' +/- stats are penalized disproportionately by simply being on the ice when GA occur beyond their control. Those forwards in descending order are Staal, LaRose, Ponikarovsky, Skinner and Sutter.
SECOND EDIT: Of that handful, only Ponikarovsky is outside the team's top-4 in total TOI. If you divide their "difference" column into their TOI, you can come up with some interesting results. Eric Staal's real life +/- is "penalized" once per 35.3 minutes... and so is Ponikarovsky. That is an incredibly close correlation, probably too close to be coincidence. LaRose's number is pretty close at 32.3. Skinner and Sutter are much higher at 43.5 and 57.8, respectively. Of course, now I'm doing the kind of analysis I said I would do later.
Last edited by tarheelhockey: 12-16-2011 at 12:29 PM.
2nd 15:52 Bowman (Stewart, McBain)
+1 McBain for the crucial keep-in at the point
+1 Stewart, who made a nice play out of the corner
+1 Bowman for going hard to the net with his stick down
Staal, Spacek even
2nd 19:08 Ruutu (Allen, Jokinen)
+1 Ponikarovsky for a nice play to keep the puck in the zone
+1 Jokinen for making the smart place to Allen
+1 Allen, nice shot
+1 Ruutu, nice screen
Gleason even
3rd 0:37 Bowman (LaRose, Sutter)
+1 LaRose for a great bit of forechecking
+1 Bowman, clearly an elite sniper at this level
Sutter, McBain, Gleason even
ES GOALS AGAINST
1st 5:19 Bieksa (Higgins, Kesler)
-1 LaRose seeing as he was supposed to have the high slot and point man covered
-1 Spacek, who got overwhelmed in front and did a great job screening Ward
Sutter, McBain, Bowman even
2nd 9:51 Raymond (Sedin, Burrows)
-1 Staal, who was supposed to have Raymond
-1 McBain for a slow stick on that pass
Gleason, Bowman, Dwyer even
3rd 8:40 Burrows (Sedin, Raymond)
-1 Sutter for an absolutely horrific turnover
-1 Tlusty for skating a wide, lazy circle back to Sedin instead of making a sharp defensive transition
-1 Gleason, who got flat-out beaten on the rebound
McBain, LaRose even
Totals for the game
+2 Bowman
+1 Allen
+1 Jokinen
+1 Ponikarovsky
+1 Ruutu
+1 Stewart
-1 Gleason
-1 Spacek
-1 Staal
-1 Sutter
-1 Tlusty
2nd 9:51 Raymond (Sedin, Burrows)
-1 Staal, who was supposed to have Raymond
-1 McBain for a slow stick on that pass
Gleason, Bowman, Dwyer even
I haven't been following this thread religiously to know the rules, but on that Raymond goal, Bowman definitely deserves a minus. It was right in front of me. His failure to clear on an easy attempt at the beginning at that sequence allowed the entire play to happen. As soon as he failed to clear, my buddy said that's trouble and sure enough, it lead to the goal.
My view was that failure by Bowman was the biggest reason the Canucks kept the puck in the zone, kept the pressure on and scored. Not sure if those are within the rules for this thread, but IMO, he was as much at fault as the others.
Staal and McBain also deserves a minus. Not sure on Gleason. The 3 of them seemed to not cover anyone very well at the end of that.
