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2011-2012 Rangers Prospects Thread (Juniors, College, International, Other) *Part 3*

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Old
11-26-2011, 09:33 PM
  #776
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No idea about McIlrath.

Yogan and Fogarty both on rolls - each with a goal so far through 2 periods. Miller appears to have cooled off a little - didn't have any points last night and no points tonight through 2 periods. Ceresnak and Noreau both negatives with no points so far through two periods.

St. Croix's game just began and McColgan plays later.

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11-26-2011, 09:46 PM
  #777
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Im At Cornell Vs BU at the garden - anybody know who owns Andy iles rights? If nobody, he could be a good target

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11-26-2011, 09:47 PM
  #778
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At Cornell Vs BU at the garden - anybody know who owns Andy iles rights?
Undrafted. No one owns him.

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11-26-2011, 09:58 PM
  #779
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Undrafted. No one owns him.
He is seriously impressive.

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11-26-2011, 09:58 PM
  #780
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Follow up on McIlrath: believe it or not, the WHL's website has a tab entitled "Discipline" in the top nav bar: http://www.whl.ca/page/WHL-discipline

Appears as of tonight that there is a suspension pending, but that the exact length is TBD:

Quote:
11/24/11 Dylan MacIlrath Moose Jaw Tbd for charge major and g.m. versus Calgary on November 23

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11-26-2011, 10:02 PM
  #781
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He is seriously impressive.
Rangers should sign him, would solve our goaltending depth issue

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11-26-2011, 10:51 PM
  #782
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Goodness gracious, Penticton is ridiculous. The team won 9-0 tonight and is now 21-3-0-2.

Here are the top 10 scorers in the BCHL:

1 Connor Reilly Penticton 26GP 22-27-49
2 Wade Murphy Victoria 26GP 17-30-47
3 Mario Lucia Penticton 22GP 17-28-45
4 Paul De Jersey Prince George 23GP 22-20-42
5 Travis St. Denis Penticton 20GP 18-23-41
6 Joey Benik Penticton 26GP 8-31-39
7 Bryce Gervais Penticton 25GP 24-14-38
8 Alex Petan Coquitlam 23GP 14 22 36
9 Steven Fogarty Penticton 26GP 15-19-34
10 Mike Moran Victoria 27GP 13-21-34


Last edited by BrooklynRangersFan: 11-26-2011 at 10:59 PM.
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11-26-2011, 11:29 PM
  #783
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Just to let you know ST.Croix with another 4pt night 12 pts last 4 games like i stated in the prospect thread he will be one of the top scorers in the dub this season,he started real slow but is now 13th in scoring

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11-26-2011, 11:34 PM
  #784
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Originally Posted by newoilburnsclean View Post
Just to let you know ST.Croix with another 4pt night 12 pts last 4 games like i stated in the prospect thread he will be one of the top scorers in the dub this season,he started real slow but is now 13th in scoring
I personally like St. Croix more than McColgan. Thanks for the update.

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11-26-2011, 11:39 PM
  #785
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Originally Posted by newoilburnsclean View Post
Just to let you know ST.Croix with another 4pt night 12 pts last 4 games like i stated in the prospect thread he will be one of the top scorers in the dub this season,he started real slow but is now 13th in scoring
That's great and all, but I don't think anyone questions whether he can put up a ton of points in juniors. The question is whether he will continue to score when he reaches the higher levels. It's impossible to tell how he'll do, given his style of play.

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11-26-2011, 11:40 PM
  #786
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I personally like St. Croix more than McColgan. Thanks for the update.
He wil be a player in the NHL book it he is very crafty and has the attitude to make the next level, I was also very high on RNH well before the bandwagoners. ST, Croix will be a very productive second line center in the NHL he can produce something out of nothing.

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11-26-2011, 11:45 PM
  #787
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Originally Posted by newoilburnsclean View Post
Just to let you know ST.Croix with another 4pt night 12 pts last 4 games like i stated in the prospect thread he will be one of the top scorers in the dub this season,he started real slow but is now 13th in scoring
He certainly has been on fire the last few games. I really hope he can notch 85-90 points this year. That's what he is on pace for right now.

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11-26-2011, 11:53 PM
  #788
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He certainly has been on fire the last few games. I really hope he can notch 85-90 points this year. That's what he is on pace for right now.
He had 2 points his first 8 games has 31 in last 18 I still say he breaks 100 he will have many 4/ 5 point games this season. He can control a game. He is also a right handed center

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11-27-2011, 12:38 AM
  #789
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Originally Posted by newoilburnsclean View Post
He had 2 points his first 8 games has 31 in last 18 I still say he breaks 100 he will have many 4/ 5 point games this season. He can control a game. He is also a right handed center

Any 18 year old who gets 100 points in the defense-first WHL all by himself (aka not off his superior teammates) is a blue chipper in my book. If he gets 80 points, he's a very solid prospect. If he gets 100+ points, he's a blue chipper.

Again, this is WHL, not the QMJHL, and not even the OHL. 100 points is very hard to get there. Only 4 players had 100+ points last year.
  • One of them was RNH who was just drafted first overall.
  • One was an overager, and it's not unusual for overagers to dominate just because of their age.
  • One was in his final year.
  • And there was only one 18 year old like St. Croix who had 100+ points.
If he joins the elite group of 18 years who score 100+ points, he's a blue chipper.

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11-27-2011, 12:47 AM
  #790
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Originally Posted by RangerEsq View Post
Any 18 year old who gets 100 points in the defense-first WHL all by himself (aka not off his superior teammates) is a blue chipper in my book. If he gets 80 points, he's a very solid prospect. If he gets 100+ points, he's a blue chipper.

Again, this is WHL, not the QMJHL, and not even the OHL. 100 points is very hard to get there. Only 4 players had 100+ points last year.
  • One of them was RNH who was just drafted first overall.
  • One was an overager, and it's not unusual for overagers to dominate just because of their age.
  • One was in his final year.
  • And there was only one 18 year old like St. Croix who had 100+ points.
If he joins the elite group of 18 years who score 100+ points, he's a blue chipper.
You base the future of our prospects based on statistics and percentages, which I find admirable. I'm very interested to see how certain prospects of ours turn out to see how valid the numbers really are.

RangersEsq, what's your opinion on Fogarty and Kreider? I'm curious about these two specifically because these are two big talented guys and based on numbers you've given us before, big talented guys (unless taken very early) don't tend to become great scorers.

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11-27-2011, 01:01 AM
  #791
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Originally Posted by RussianRangersFan View Post
You base the future of our prospects based on statistics and percentages, which I find admirable. I'm very interested to see how certain prospects of ours turn out to see how valid the numbers really are.

RangersEsq, what's your opinion on Fogarty and Kreider? I'm curious about these two specifically because these are two big talented guys and based on numbers you've given us before, big talented guys (unless taken very early) don't tend to become great scorers.

I don't base the future of prospects on stats and percentages, but I take it into consideration. If a second rounder in general has a 20% chance of cracking the NHL and a 5% chance of being a top-6 forward, you can't just look at our second rounder and buy into the hype. Sure, there are many things each prospect does well. There's a reason why they got drafted in a relatively early position. But I see people penciling in second rounders into the third line and late first rounders into the second line, and 5-10 picks are suddenly all future All-Stars.

The expectations for prospects are obviously ridiculous and unrealistic.

As for the specific prospects you mentioned, I voted for Kreider as our top prospect in the last several semi-annual polls, so it's pretty clear what I think of him. Kreider slipped to us that late in the draft only because he was playing in HS and was very, very raw. Literally every review of Kreider began with, "very raw, but..."


I'm not at all sold on Fogarty. I want to see what he can do in juniors or college before I heap praises on him. A third round pick has about a 5% chance to crack the NHL, and obviously much less chance to become a top-6 player.

At this point, I'm just hoping one of Lindberg or Fogarty becomes a quality 4th liner who can do the job on an inexpensive ELC. For Fogarty to become a top scorer, he would have to surprise the hell out of all those scouts who passed on him for 2 or 3 rounds. It's not impossible, but it's stupid to expect this.

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11-27-2011, 01:09 AM
  #792
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Originally Posted by RussianRangersFan View Post
You base the future of our prospects based on statistics and percentages, which I find admirable. I'm very interested to see how certain prospects of ours turn out to see how valid the numbers really are.

RangersEsq, what's your opinion on Fogarty and Kreider? I'm curious about these two specifically because these are two big talented guys and based on numbers you've given us before, big talented guys (unless taken very early) don't tend to become great scorers.
Well with no dissrespect I have watched hockey 41 years and I will stand behind my comments on ST.Croix I don't pimp many players but the ones I have have not made me look bad. ST.Croix is very underated reason being he does not have elite speed but what he does have is creativity vision and a strong work ethic. Think Ron Francis or a more talented Gagner when it comes to St.Croix he is above average in every skill stickhandling passing shooting dekeing, his game tonight and his 5pt night last week he looked like a man against boys in puck control. Edit oops replied to wrong post

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11-27-2011, 01:18 AM
  #793
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One other thing that I tried to argue against that very few people actually understood when I was giving those stats was that a #20 isn't necessarily going to be a better player than a #15.

When drafting, you take several factors into consideration, the most important of which are 1) the ceiling; and 2) the risk.

Again and again, people are saying that we need to move up because we need an impact player. This is just false reasoning. A player who's guaranteed to be a good third liner, but without much upside will likely be drafted in the first round.

Another player who has a high probability of busting, but has the upside to be a superstar, may not be drafted until the second or even later round. But if you are looking for an impact player, for a player who can actually score and not just be a grinder, this may be a better bet for you.

Specifically, it may make sense to trade down and draft TWO high-risk, high-return prospects instead of drafting one safe prospect without much upside.

But the response was that all the first rounders are pretty much expected to be second liners or better. This line of reasoning is just false. It is based on people remembering those few who make it, but forgetting those many who do not. It's also based on bad math: if the 30 first rounders all became top-6F/top-4D players, and a so did most second rounders and some late round picks, we'd have 1,500 top-6F/top-4D in the league.

Once you lower your expectations and realize that you probably won't be drafting a superstar at #18, suddenly getting someone who's nearly guaranteed to be a second-third line tweener seems like a good pick, which is why these guys go in the middle of the first round.

Fans hype them to no end, then get upset that the team is full of grinders, but no scorers.

But to get a scorer, you have to go high-risk, high-return if you are drafting outside of the top-7 or so, and sometimes it makes sense to give up a pick that will definitely yield a tweener in return for a pair of later picks that will yield two high-risk, high-return kids.

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11-27-2011, 01:53 AM
  #794
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Follow up on McIlrath: believe it or not, the WHL's website has a tab entitled "Discipline" in the top nav bar: http://www.whl.ca/page/WHL-discipline

Appears as of tonight that there is a suspension pending, but that the exact length is TBD:
WTF.... So he's sitting out games while they ponder about how long to suspend him for? What's he going to get, 10-15 games?

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11-27-2011, 02:03 AM
  #795
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Well with no dissrespect I have watched hockey 41 years and I will stand behind my comments on ST.Croix I don't pimp many players but the ones I have have not made me look bad. ST.Croix is very underated reason being he does not have elite speed but what he does have is creativity vision and a strong work ethic. Think Ron Francis or a more talented Gagner when it comes to St.Croix he is above average in every skill stickhandling passing shooting dekeing, his game tonight and his 5pt night last week he looked like a man against boys in puck control. Edit oops replied to wrong post
I'd love for you to be right, but I'm limiting my expectations until he actually plays against professional competition.

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11-27-2011, 11:36 AM
  #796
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Thanks for your responses RangersEsq and sorry about the misinformation.

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11-27-2011, 11:58 AM
  #797
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Is McColgan a lock for the US WJC team? I'm going to say Miller is. Who else has a realistic shot?

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11-27-2011, 12:31 PM
  #798
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This is our prospects thread, so this is OT, but what the heck is the deal with Mark Stone? Was just looking at the WHL stats leaders in light of St. Croix's recent success and Stone's numbers are insane.

He was a 6th round pick for Ottawa in 2010 - in fact he was the 3rd to last pick in the round. Now, I'm not complaining about Jesper Fasth - he's one of my favorite players. But, we couldn't have taken a flier on this kid over say Jason Wilson...?

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11-27-2011, 01:50 PM
  #799
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According to a Moose Jaw Warrior fan who posts here, he said McIlrath is doubtful to make the WJC team. The reason is because the Russians were destroying him in the Canada-Russia superseries, he's still a pylon against small skilled players. It is kind of concerning that he hasn't progressed into a consistent shutdown guy against Junior players, will always get the 'he's raw' excuse. I do think he'll be an NHL player, but he is not even close to being one according to the what I've read. Besides, if he does make the WJC team, he may look very bad since big shutdown defenseman have struggled mightily in recent WJC. Colten Teubert, Jared Cowen, Dylan Olsen and Keith Aulie come to mind. Just not there type of game I guess.

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11-27-2011, 01:51 PM
  #800
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This is our prospects thread, so this is OT, but what the heck is the deal with Mark Stone? Was just looking at the WHL stats leaders in light of St. Croix's recent success and Stone's numbers are insane.

He was a 6th round pick for Ottawa in 2010 - in fact he was the 3rd to last pick in the round. Now, I'm not complaining about Jesper Fasth - he's one of my favorite players. But, we couldn't have taken a flier on this kid over say Jason Wilson...?
Yeah there are always guys like these that are found late in the draft, I wouldn't put too much stock into it at this moment. Let's see what Stone does in the NHL before saying we made a mistake. Truth is, every team has late round gems like Stone once in a while.

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