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Old
11-01-2011, 06:10 PM
  #1
Pred303
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stat stuff

something i looked up this morning and posted over on np.com that i thought might get a little more discussion over here;

just a little stat interlude this morning over coffee

whenever suter and weber are on ice, we are a great team. i find i don't worry when these two are on ice.

enough so, that i ran some numbers this morning to see if stats backed up what i just 'feel'.

so far this year in 11 games, we've allowed 23 even strength goals. 22 5 on 5 and now 1 4 on 4. of those 23, 3 were empty net goals against us, so i'll disregard those three for this purpose.

suter and weber have been on ice for only 3 of those goals. klein 13. bouillon 5. hillen 3. blum 9. laakso 3.

when you think of how many more even strength minutes those two play the breakdown of goals allowed per minutes played looks like this;

suter, 212 minutes, 3 es goals allowed.. or on ice for only 1 goal allowed per 71 minutes played.
weber, 204 minutes, 3 es goals allowed.. or on ice for only 1 goal allowed per 68 minutes played.

these are unbelievably good numbers after 11 games and are no accident. compare them to the other pairings.

klein, 183 minutes, 13 es goals allowed.. 1 goal allowed per 14 minutes played.
bouillon, 68 minutes, 5 es goals allowed.. 1 goal allowed per 13.6 minutes played

blum, 174 minutes, 9 es goals allowed.. 1 goal allowed per 19 minutes played.
hillen, 107 minutes, 3 es goals allowed.. 1 goal allowed per 36 minutes played.

laakso, 74 minutes, 3 es goals allowed.. 1 goal per 24 minutes played.

this totally 'confirms' the feelings i have and this doesn't even take into account that weber/suter are matched against the opponent's best almost every shift. obviously the second pairing is killing us right now and we have to fix this somehow. each goal is of course not the total fault of any one pairing or player, but it's impossible to argue against the stat trends we're seeing here.

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Old
11-01-2011, 06:13 PM
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Pred303
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and hello to all you old predator friends.

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Old
11-01-2011, 06:29 PM
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welcome back to the party

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11-01-2011, 06:44 PM
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Klein is overmatched every night.

I like the guy, but he's not a top 4 d-man.

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11-01-2011, 07:22 PM
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I Will Son
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These are real statistics. Klein is a good pker, but not top 4 imo

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11-01-2011, 07:32 PM
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Those are fantastic numbers. Klein has been pretty mistake-heavy this year, and his mistakes have been capitalized on frequently. It reminds me of O'Brien in the playoffs - every penalty he took resulted in a goal. Klein does appear more indecisive to me....even forgetting to cover his man in the slot on multiple occasions. He will snap out of it, but erg....what a rocky start for him.

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11-01-2011, 07:40 PM
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Excellent stats. Suter and Weber are pretty good aren't they?

Most surprising is Hillen. Thought he'd be near the worst, not in 3rd.

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Old
11-01-2011, 07:48 PM
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sighthndlady
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Attendance stats:

10/13/11 (Phoenix): 17,113 - L
10/15/11 (New Jersey): 17,113 - SOL
10/25/11 (San Jose): 15,121 - L
10/27/11 (Tampa Bay): 16,619 - W
10/29/11 (Anaheim): 16,395 - W

October average: 16,472
October home points: 5

October 2010:

10/9/10 (Anaheim): 17,113 - W
10/14/10 (St. Louis): 15,103 - W
10/16/10 (Washington): 16,114 - OL
10/19/10 (Calgary): 15,685 - OL
10/21/10 (Pittsburgh): 17,113 - OL
10/28/10 (St. Louis) - 15,506 - L

Average through first five games: 16,225
October average: 16,105
October home points: 7

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11-01-2011, 08:31 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pred303 View Post
and hello to all you old predator friends.
Always good to see your name before a post.

So, if Rinne is the MVP of the big three what does that make Weber or Suter?

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11-01-2011, 10:00 PM
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those are sobering numbers to a guy who was thinking that Weber wasnt playing very well this year.

I guess when you are that awesome the few mistakes they make do stand out.

for instance, during the NJ game Weber took a penalty with 14 seconds left in the second, leading to the goal early in the 3rd that got NJ back into the game

then the very next game suter takes a penalty in the third when we were up 1-0, leading to EDM's first goal

then last night Suter takes the late slash that we manage to kill off, then either late in the game or in OT with full possession in our end he makes a really bad pass over to Weber and instead of us breaking out all of a sudden Chicago is setting up in our zone...

but I guess Im just looking for things because these guys are seemingly holding the team hostage...

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Old
11-01-2011, 10:16 PM
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Maybe we could try Klein at RW


...oh wait

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Old
11-02-2011, 09:28 AM
  #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gopreds9 View Post
Excellent stats. Suter and Weber are pretty good aren't they?

Most surprising is Hillen. Thought he'd be near the worst, not in 3rd.
When you're only playing 9 or 10 minutes a game, the stats can be a bit skewed.

Honestly, and the numbers somewhat reflect this, but I think Blum has been as shaky, if not more than Klein. A lot of that time, they were paired together, and these stats don't necessarily point any fingers, but just from the top of my head, Klein just happened to be on the ice for the goal, but the actual mistake was Blum's.

I've said since about August-- a top six forward would be nice and all, but what we really need is a veteran second pairing d-man to push Blum and Bouillon to the third pairing, Hillen to number 7, and Laakso to waivers\milwaukee\the florida panthers.

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11-02-2011, 10:02 AM
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Good stats, but to be complete the analysis should include forwards that were playing. When I played defense the forwards that were on the ice had a very big impact on how I played and in the results. So for example if Weber and Suter are out there with a stronger defensive forward line, then they get a little help. If Klein and Cube were out there with a weaker defensive line, they will be exposed.
I'm not saying this is what explains the difference, Weber and Suter have been playing very well this year, and as a pair are the best in the league. Klein has had a couple of tough games, but in his defense Blum is going through the Sophomore slump pretty bad and Cube is just getting his legs under him, so he hasn't had much help. He's not a Weber or Suter level player, but he is a good solid 2nd pair guy most times. Let's get his partner situation straightened out before we throw him completely under the bus.

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11-02-2011, 01:34 PM
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How does that compare to KK's end of the year pairing with Blum last year and with Cube for a significant sample last year? It sure feels like he has regressed from his play last year to something more like 09-10.

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Old
11-02-2011, 01:40 PM
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I'm wondering if Klein/Hillen and Cube/Blum would work or if Cube/Blum would be too small.

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11-02-2011, 02:16 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jlsg View Post
Good stats, but to be complete the analysis should include forwards that were playing. When I played defense the forwards that were on the ice had a very big impact on how I played and in the results. So for example if Weber and Suter are out there with a stronger defensive forward line, then they get a little help. If Klein and Cube were out there with a weaker defensive line, they will be exposed.
I'm not saying this is what explains the difference, Weber and Suter have been playing very well this year, and as a pair are the best in the league. Klein has had a couple of tough games, but in his defense Blum is going through the Sophomore slump pretty bad and Cube is just getting his legs under him, so he hasn't had much help. He's not a Weber or Suter level player, but he is a good solid 2nd pair guy most times. Let's get his partner situation straightened out before we throw him completely under the bus.
Totally agree. And I'll take it one step further. Playing with total defensive forwards like Smithson also can hurt you in that the puck never gets out of the zone. If I push the puck to the halfboards and the winger is out of his position which causes a turnover am I to blame? I won my battle but didn't get any help.

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11-02-2011, 02:57 PM
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As most people are, I'm surprised by Hillen's numbers. Thought he would be the weak link in the D, but looks like he is holding his own. These numbers will defiantly help Weber's cause in getting a contract, but its still very early. I wouldn't mess with the D too much, but tinker a little bit. Obviously, do not separate Suter-Webs, but I agree with Drake about putting Klein and Hillen as a 3rd pair.

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11-02-2011, 03:43 PM
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Well trig you should know that it is of course your fault since you should have known that you had a bone head forward that wasn't going to be in position.

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11-02-2011, 04:31 PM
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Thought it was interesting that Blum noted in a blog post he had finally been put back on his natural D side. If his game is allowed to settle, I would expect his numbers to improve. That guy needs a good partner.

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11-02-2011, 05:25 PM
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I wonder what the break out is home vs road. I would theorize that opposing teams would try to match up their top lines vs Klein/Blum.

There's also the Rinne factor that he stops a LOT of shots that would normally be goals.

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Old
11-02-2011, 06:10 PM
  #21
I Will Son
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Legwand had 4 PP points last year, all assists. This season he already has 5 PP points. 1g, 4a.

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Old
11-02-2011, 06:18 PM
  #22
Pred303
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gopreds19 View Post
I wonder what the break out is home vs road. I would theorize that opposing teams would try to match up their top lines vs Klein/Blum.

There's also the Rinne factor that he stops a LOT of shots that would normally be goals.
well i'm not going back to dig that out, but one can get a comparitive idea by home/road +/-;

player.. home/road
weber +3,+2
suter +3,+1
klein -5/-3
blum -3/-1
bouillon 0/-3
hillen +1/+1

now of course, the sample's too small to read too much into +/- from this so far. for example both klein and bouillon's -3 from the chicago game make up their entire -3 on the road for the year. and blum and hillen have both been + players since bouillon came back and moved blum down to the 3rd pair.

and as far as rinne.. well he does play goalie for all pairs not just weber/suter, so you pretty much have to leave him out of rational for how many goals are scored when a specific pair is out there to make any sense. lol

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Old
11-02-2011, 06:37 PM
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one could also carry this goals allowed per time on ice for the d-men to the pk as well (we've allowed 6 now) and see some similiar trends compared to even strength numbers;

weber, 33:22 on the pk, 1 pp goal allowed
suter, 38:49, 2 pp goals allowed

pretty good numbers here as well for these two,

klein, 37:17, 5 pp goals allowed
blum, 31:29, 2 pp goals allowed
bouillon 1:48, 0 pp goals allowed
hillen 6:57, 1 pp goal allowed

too small to draw any real conclusions (where one game could drastically change everything still), but interesting to mull over nevertheless.

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Old
11-06-2011, 06:25 PM
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Pred303
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an interesting little stat trend here so far..

..legwand currently now has the 2nd best +/- on the road of any player in the league at +7. however he's a -2 at home.
..meanwhile wilson has the 4th best road +/- in the league at +6, but is a -4 at home.

on the other end of the spectrum,
..erat is a +1 at home, but a -5 on the road.

it's such a small sample size you don't want to read too much into this, but it causes one to pause and ask is there a reason for this statistical oddity? generally speaking most players wind up having better +/- at home obviously, simply because they're gaining benefits of who they're matched up against..

but, my thinking is that it's a little backwards for the legwand line. on the road, other teams try to roll their topline more against fisher, or smithson's line. which allows legwand's line to think more offense in general. at home however, we're rolling them out against the top enemy line pretty much every shift we can. which in turn causes them to be more defensive oriented obviously, and also to bear the brunt of the best players scoring ability ultimately at home as well..

just something to watch and see if the trend continues along these lines.

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Old
11-07-2011, 08:37 AM
  #25
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303, I'm lazy as hell so I don't know the answer but how many home games have we had both a healthy Fisher and a healthy Legwand?

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