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Why Carey over Hasek in '96?

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Old
11-02-2011, 04:26 PM
  #1
Passchendaele
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Why Carey over Hasek in '96?

As one of the biggest flops in history, one could argue that Carey was never elite - not even for that Vezina-winning season.

On the whole, 71 games played, 35 wins, and surprisingly, 9 shutouts. But he had a save percentage of .906.

On the other hand, Hasek led the league in that department - far ahead of Carey - with .920 over 59 games, playing on the 7th worst team in the whole league, and still managed to record five shutouts.

What happened?

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11-02-2011, 04:29 PM
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TheDevilMadeMe
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Passchendaele View Post
As one of the biggest flops in history, one could argue that Carey was never elite - not even for that Vezina-winning season.

On the whole, 71 games played, 35 wins, and surprisingly, 9 shutouts. But he had a save percentage of .906.

On the other hand, Hasek led the league in that department - far ahead of Carey - with .920 over 59 games, playing on the 7th worst team in the whole league, and still managed to record five shutouts.

What happened?
You answered your own question - Hasek didn't make the playoffs. Neither did Brodeur. Roy had his weird year where he was traded midseason. Belfour had perhaps the worst year of his career. Carey won as kind of the "best of the rest," though in my opinion, it probably should have gone to Darren Puppa.

For whatever reason, GMs were obsessed with Carey's wins and shutout records, and I think Puppa was hurt by a reputation as a choker, while Carey didn't have a rep yet.

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11-02-2011, 04:36 PM
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Definitely bizarre. Even if one was restricted to goalies who made the playoffs, there were plenty of better choices.

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11-02-2011, 06:10 PM
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I was just talking about this today. If you look at " who were the best goalies in the game" you would talk about roy, hasek, brodeur, belfour and joseph. They all disqualified themselves one way or the other so carey and osgood got the glory by default. If it is about "who had the best season" then yes those two were in that mix, for one fleeting season. Personally I would have given it to hasek regardless of the playoffs thing because individually speaking he is still the answer to the 2nd question.

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11-02-2011, 06:29 PM
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The 9 shutouts may not seem that extraordinary now after the big shutout totals Brodeur accomplished in the late-90s/2000s, but at the time it was the most any goalie had in a season in almost 20 years, and got a lot of attention.

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11-02-2011, 06:43 PM
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Hindsight is 20/20. I recall at the time MANY were impressed with his play on the ice, NOT just the wins stat and shutout stat. He had been the previous season the AHL first team all-star as well as rookie of the year and looked like an up and comer. The 22 year old set NHL franchise records for goals against average and shutouts that great NHL rookie season of his. He never had a losing season, an all-star at three levels of hockey. In 1996 there was no reason to believe he was anything but gold.

But once he got the gold ($11 million contract following the Vezina season) he stopped trying, whether it be to lack of interest or confidence or both. But have no doubt, the dude had talent.



Quote:
Coming out of Dorchester, Massachusetts; Carey really got the eyes on him playing in high school for Catholic Memorial, as he went 48-2-0 in his his three years there from 1989-90 until 1991-92, with 12 shutouts to his name. It was good enough for Carey to get Drafted in the 1992 Draft by the Washington Capitals in the second round, 32nd overall.

Even though he was drafted, Carey had decided to go to the school route by heading to the University of Wisconsin to get some time in there. Starting in the 1992-93 season, Carey got plenty of time with the Badgers in net-- as he played 25 games in his freshman year and going 15-8-1, enough to prove his guile. His first-year play got him some solid merits-- like being the WCHA's Rookie of the Year, named to the WCHA All-Rookie team, and the WCHA 2nd All-Star team. Carey parlayed that into more time in his sophomore year, getting 39 games in and going 24-13-1 for the year. With all his work done, the 1994-95 season saw Carey make the leap from the amateur ranks to the pro ranks.

With the lockout, that meant that Carey had to start his career with the Portland Pirates, the Caps farm team at the time. With the Pirates, Carey showed his stuff and shocked a lot of people in the AHL, playing 55 games and going 30-14-11 with six shutouts and a 2.76 GAA. The Caps were so impressed that they called up Carey in March of 1995 and went 18-6-3 for the season, displaying the classic case of the unknown goalie stumping the league. However, his rookie year in the AHL, Carey was able to get the Red Garrett Award for AHL top-rookie and Baz Bastien Award for top-goalie in the league.

With those accolades, the Caps spent no time to promote Carey to the starter's role. In the 1995-96 season, he did not disappoint. Carey played in 71 games for the Caps, went 35-24-9 with a 2.26 GAA and .906 save percentage. Those numbers were good enough for Carey to capture the Vezina Trophy, becoming one of the most unlikely winners of the award. Things were riding high for Carey, as he was a cult hit in the DC area. With the rise of comedian Jim Carrey in the entertainment industry-- the nicknames were readily available. The fans started to call him the Net Detective, as well as Ace, an homage to the Jim Carrey movie; "Ace Ventura, Pet Detective." He was on cloud nine, but like most AGMs-- it all came crashing down in an instant.

...

In a July 2000 article in the Washington Times, many had wondered what happened with Carey. He wasn't interview personally, but former agent Brian Lawton did talk and told about how Carey wasn't like most of young, rich athletes:

"Jim made $800,000 or $900,000 the year he won the Vezina and then he signed a four-year, $11 million contract. And Jim has done so well with his investments that he doesn't have to work. He's working on his business degree at the University of Tampa and looking to get involved in the financial world. It's disappointing that Jim didn't persevere because he still had a lot to give to the sport. Despite everything that had happened, 24 was too young to leave hockey."
Carey was said to be able to get in shape in no time, but he never wanted to. Right now, Carey is the CEO and President of OptiMED Billing Solutions, which is a medical billing company in Sarasota, Florida.

While it seemed that Carey could transition, it seemed that he could only do that on his own terms and with his qualifications. When he would get traded or released or demoted, Carey never reacted well; thinking he was in the wrong and never could get his confidence back. When he was about to get it fully back-- Carey would be on the move again and he'd have to start all over. While he seems to have found his calling now, it's fitting he's the CEO. He can call his own shots and do what he needed to in order to succeed, without anyone telling him otherwise.
http://scottywazz.blogspot.com/2010/...jim-carey.html


Last edited by VanIslander: 11-02-2011 at 06:50 PM.
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Old
11-02-2011, 09:33 PM
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Big Phil
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I've never disagreed with Carey getting the Vezina that year. He earned it. Sure it was kind of by default since many stars had off years, but if I were choosing, I'd have picked him over Hasek. Come to think of it, Fuhr was criminally underrated that year too and might have been my second choice.

That being said, when the World Cup came calling in 1996 Carey wasn't the Americans' starter. That belonged to Mike Richter. I guess it isn't too hard to believe that a Cup winner just two years earlier would get dibs over the current Vezina winner, but then again maybe some people had reservations about Carey. Maybe even then there were people who couldn't put their finger on something about him back then. Either way, his decline started right then

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11-02-2011, 09:57 PM
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Lateral Movement

Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Phil View Post
I've never disagreed with Carey getting the Vezina that year. He earned it. Sure it was kind of by default since many stars had off years, but if I were choosing, I'd have picked him over Hasek. Come to think of it, Fuhr was criminally underrated that year too and might have been my second choice.

That being said, when the World Cup came calling in 1996 Carey wasn't the Americans' starter. That belonged to Mike Richter. I guess it isn't too hard to believe that a Cup winner just two years earlier would get dibs over the current Vezina winner, but then again maybe some people had reservations about Carey. Maybe even then there were people who couldn't put their finger on something about him back then. Either way, his decline started right then

Jim Carey's lateral movement was rather weak. Critical element when playing against European teams - see Ken Dryden. Eventually this weakness caught up to him in the NHL.

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11-02-2011, 10:08 PM
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Just as a quick and dirty method, Hasek was 44 goals above average (in just 59 games) during '95-96.

Carey was 13 goals above average in 71 games. Fun fact: despite playing 652 less minutes than Carey, Hasek faced 380 more shots. Buffalo also took 20% more penalties than Washington.


Yeah, there's really no way to justify giving Carey the Vezina over Hasek, regardless of playoff considerations.

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11-02-2011, 10:39 PM
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As was already noted, Carey was a great first-save goalie but his lateral mobility was very poor. Pittsburgh exploited this twice in playoff series and absolutely ventilated him, and after that his confidence fell apart.

He basically got the 1996 Vezina on hype. He was a catchy story with the nickname tie-in to actor Jim Carrey (‘The Mask’, ‘Net Detective’) and as a young American goalie with the most shutouts anyone had put up in ages he got a ton of press in the US – big-time star treatment from the media. Nobody seemed to notice that his save % was 15th in the league, or that his numbers might be hugely influenced by playing behind one of the best blueline groups in the NHL.

Hasek was the best goalie in the league that year, but if it didn’t go to him because he didn’t make the playoffs, it probably should have gone to Daren Puppa, who had a monster year to carry TB to their first-ever playoff berth. The Lightning were 29-16 with Puppa getting the decision, 9-16 when he didn’t … meanwhile his numbers nearly matched Hasek’s.

It’s a shame Puppa could never stay healthy as he was one of the most talented goalies of his generation – he only played 3 healthy seasons as a starter and was a Vezina finalist in two of them and outstanding in the other as well. Sadly, he probably missed nearly as many games to injury as he actually played during the course of his career.

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11-02-2011, 10:56 PM
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seventieslord
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Does anyone else remember some cheeky TSN guy saying, "to stay regular for the playoffs, you, just like the Tampa Bay Lightning, need to have a healthy Puppa every night"?

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11-03-2011, 09:49 AM
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I saw a guy knock-out Carey in a fight over the last beer at a party. Carey's Univ. of Wisconsin teammates beat the crap out the guy the following day. Not that it matters, but its what comes to mind when I hear Careys name.

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11-03-2011, 10:00 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
Does anyone else remember some cheeky TSN guy saying, "to stay regular for the playoffs, you, just like the Tampa Bay Lightning, need to have a healthy Puppa every night"?
Intentional or unintentional pun? Kudos, if intentional.

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11-03-2011, 03:23 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Hasek didn't make the playoffs.
But this is the Vezina, not the Hart. I think it should be awarded to the best goalie, not the best goalie who made the playoffs. It should have went to Hasek, Puppa, Brodeur or Potvin.

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11-03-2011, 03:32 PM
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Considerations

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Originally Posted by McNuts View Post
But this is the Vezina, not the Hart. I think it should be awarded to the best goalie, not the best goalie who made the playoffs. It should have went to Hasek, Puppa, Brodeur or Potvin.
In the context of the era, save % carried little weight. Carey played over 70 games, led the goalies in wins, shutouts and had the best differential between wins and loses.

http://www.hockey-reference.com/play...y=games_goalie

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11-04-2011, 01:35 AM
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seventieslord
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Originally Posted by SkittlyRit View Post
Intentional or unintentional pun? Kudos, if intentional.
The regularity piece? Intentional by the tsn guy.

Me using" cheeky" when recollecting that pun? Unintentional, sorry. Not that funny either. Haha

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03-10-2012, 10:31 AM
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Originally Posted by Passchendaele View Post
As one of the biggest flops in history, one could argue that Carey was never elite - not even for that Vezina-winning season.

On the whole, 71 games played, 35 wins, and surprisingly, 9 shutouts. But he had a save percentage of .906.

On the other hand, Hasek led the league in that department - far ahead of Carey - with .920 over 59 games, playing on the 7th worst team in the whole league, and still managed to record five shutouts.

What happened?
You answered your own question and carey deserved it. He came out of nowhere and just kept winning. Not to mention he is a very funny and entertaining guy. The mask had a short career in hockey but his appeal today is so much greater.

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03-10-2012, 11:52 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Passchendaele View Post
As one of the biggest flops in history, one could argue that Carey was never elite - not even for that Vezina-winning season.

On the whole, 71 games played, 35 wins, and surprisingly, 9 shutouts. But he had a save percentage of .906.

On the other hand, Hasek led the league in that department - far ahead of Carey - with .920 over 59 games, playing on the 7th worst team in the whole league, and still managed to record five shutouts.

What happened?
Win-Loss record, Recency bias with shutouts, and general perception of Carey being integral to Capitals.

Carey's 35-24-9 record looks better on the surface than Hasek's 22-30-6 and Brodeur's 34-30-12.

Recency bias probably played a role because in March Jim Carey had 5 shutouts that I imagine were fresh in the minds of GMs since they helped push the Caps to the playoffs. Hasek finished 3-9-1 on a non-playoff team no one was paying attention to, even if his individual play was good. Brodeur was probably given some blame for losing so many games in the final stretch as his team missed the playoffs by 2 points.

The Caps scored fewer goals than the Sabres and Red Wings so the perceived importance of goaltending in helping them actually make the playoffs was high.

Sample size is screwy, but Carey outperformed Kolzig's sv% by more than Hasek outperformed Trefilov, and significantly outperformed Kolzig in W-L-T too, unlike Osgood and Vernon or Hasek and Trefilov or even Roy and Fiset. Plus the Caps simply didn't win very much before his appearance the previous season so the correlation of Washington winning and Carey in net was an influence.

And of course 9 shutouts for the season was the best total since Ken Dryden played for the 1976-77 Canadiens.

Even still looking at the vote counts, it's not like Carey ran away with it. He won by 6 points over Osgood, much tighter than his win for 1st team AS.

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03-10-2012, 01:15 PM
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Carey's win-loss record was not impressive given the strength of the Capitals that season.

The Capitals scored 2.81 goals per 60 minutes and allowed 24.55 shots against per 60 minutes. The average save percentage in 1996 was 89.8%, so we'd expect an average goalie who played as much as Carey to have 37.9 win equivalents (wins plus half of ties).

= (2.81^2) / [ (2.81^2) + ((24.55 * (1-0.898))^2) ] * (35+24+9)
= 0.557 * 68
= 37.9

In reality, Carey had 39.5 win equivalents, which means he only contributed about 1.5 win equivalents more than a statistically average goalie would have done. Granted, Carey played a lot, ranking third in minutes played, and there is value in being average for a long time (it prevents the team from having to play a below-average goalie).

Still, if we're looking at wins versus expectations, Darren Puppa was fantastic. He was 29-16-9 (33.5 win equivalents) on a team that was at best mediocre without him.

The Lightning scored 2.86 goals per 60 minutes (about 2% better than Carey's Capitals) and allowed 29.20 shots against per 60 minutes (about 16% worse than Washington). The average save percentage in 1996 was 89.8%, so we'd expect an average goalie who played as much as Puppa to have 25.9 win equivalents (wins plus half of ties).

= (2.86^2) / [ (2.86^2) + ((29.20 * (1-0.898))^2) ] * (29 + 16 +9)
= 0.480 * 54
= 25.9

In reality, Puppa had 33.5 win equivalents, which means he contributed about 7.6 win equivalents more than a statistically average goalie would have done. It's stunning that Puppa had a better win percentage than Carey despite playing on a clearly inferior team.

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03-11-2012, 04:36 AM
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I've never had much of an issue with it. You have to take yourself back to 1995-'96. It was not the best year for goalies. Lots of suspicious "off years" from the elite.

But I've always thought this was more of a case of us looking in hindsight than anything. Hasek wins the Vezina in 1994, 1995, 1997, 1998, 1999 and 2001. Carey wins in 1996 and is out of the NHL by 1998. It isn't an all-time great that wins this thing like us sports fans want to see. It's Jim Carey. And he beats out an all-time great which bothers us. But since no one knew the bust Carey would eventually be, it wasn't an issue in 1996.

Anyway you want to spin it, Hasek was "off" in 1996. He had a team just as good if not better than his other teams when he won the Vezina. The later 1990s teams didn't have Lafontaine on them either and yet the Sabres made the playoffs. Why? Because Hasek played out of his mind. He got 13 shutouts in 1998. That reason alone a goalie will elevate his team into the postseason. Hasek just didn't do that as well in 1996. It was an off year for him. No big deal, but he didn't deserve the Vezina.

I liken this to 2002. Theodore wins the Vezina and then narrowly beats out Iginla for the Hart. 10 years from now that decision looks bad because Theodore turned out to be a flash in the pan who didn't last very long at the top and Iginla has turned into a probably HHOFer. But in 2002 I actually agreed with the Hart decision. Iginla didn't deserve it at all. He didn't even come close to carrying his Flames to the postseason while Theodore literally took the Habs on his back and elevated them into the postseason. And this was a poor Habs team too with their best player out with cancer. The right decision was made.

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03-11-2012, 04:41 AM
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Hasek was facing 35 shots a game, jim carey only 26, big difference. Hasek was used as a rebound machine that year, he was still the best at actually stopping the puck.

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03-11-2012, 07:03 AM
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Big Phil has a good point. Carey was a huge story at the time and people had him as a guy on the verge of the elite. Don't forget he had a solid 94/95 and was on the all-rookie team that year, so it's not like there wasn't a possible narrative of a guy on the way to the top.

You know in my mind Jim Carey's name always immediately bring about another name - Blaine Lacher. To the extent that I initially am confused which one played for Washington, which one for Boston when I try to recall it. There was a brief moment in history ca. 1995 when Lacher was considered one of the league's ascending young goalie talents at a time when you had young goalies like Brodeur, Potvin, Osgood, Kidd, Thibault, Carey and Lacher doing well. Talk about a next generation of goalie greats etc.

From today's point of view those names don't make a whole lot of sense listed in a context but at the time, though Brodeur stood out as the best of the bunch even then, you wouldn't know that Lacher and Carey would be out of the league soon enough, Kidd and Thibault would have OK but nothing special careers, Potvin would struggle a few years later, Brodeur would become a top 5 goalie all-time and Osgood a guy with a borderline HOF case.

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03-11-2012, 09:37 AM
  #23
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Quote:
‘Net Detective’ ... his numbers might be hugely influenced by playing behind one of the best blueline groups in the NHL.

Would you care to elaborate? We are talking mid-90s Caps? Other than Gonchar, I can't remember anybody on that D-corps worth mentioning.

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03-11-2012, 10:10 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sentinel View Post

Would you care to elaborate? We are talking mid-90s Caps? Other than Gonchar, I can't remember anybody on that D-corps worth mentioning.
Calle Johanssen
Mark Tinordi
Sylvain Cote
Joe Reekie

None of those guys had the offensive numbers to get any Norris consideration, but defensively as a unit from top to bottom they were one of the three best in the league at the time along with Detroit and New Jersey.

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03-11-2012, 11:57 AM
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Originally Posted by TheMoreYouKnow View Post
Big Phil has a good point. Carey was a huge story at the time and people had him as a guy on the verge of the elite. Don't forget he had a solid 94/95 and was on the all-rookie team that year, so it's not like there wasn't a possible narrative of a guy on the way to the top.

You know in my mind Jim Carey's name always immediately bring about another name - Blaine Lacher. To the extent that I initially am confused which one played for Washington, which one for Boston when I try to recall it. There was a brief moment in history ca. 1995 when Lacher was considered one of the league's ascending young goalie talents at a time when you had young goalies like Brodeur, Potvin, Osgood, Kidd, Thibault, Carey and Lacher doing well. Talk about a next generation of goalie greats etc.

From today's point of view those names don't make a whole lot of sense listed in a context but at the time, though Brodeur stood out as the best of the bunch even then, you wouldn't know that Lacher and Carey would be out of the league soon enough, Kidd and Thibault would have OK but nothing special careers, Potvin would struggle a few years later, Brodeur would become a top 5 goalie all-time and Osgood a guy with a borderline HOF case.
it gets especially confusing because carey was traded to the bruins the year after lacher played himself out of the league.

as i recall, lacher was the early calder favourite during the lockout year. lacher started the year 9-2-2, with two shutouts. then he was roughly .500 the rest of the way, with two more shutouts. by the end of the year, carey, who didn't play a single game until after lacher's hot first month and a half, had passed him. four shutouts of his own, and an 18-6-3 record. carey's emergence coincided with washington turning its season around and making the playoffs. forsberg won the rookie of the year though (carey second, kariya third).

weird that in '95 washington had three young goalies, and all three would become vezina candidates/postseason all-stars. the fourth string guy from '95, byron dafoe, ended up taking carey's starting job in boston in '98 and was a second team all-star in '99. kolzig would go on to become the all-time leader in capitals wins. but carey, who was the youngest one of the three, was already gone by the time dafoe and kolzig even became legitimate NHL starters.

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