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Who Should Start Tomorrow? (Update: Enroth gets the nod)

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Old
11-04-2011, 03:51 PM
  #151
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That caption makes me cry every single time.

"Heff"

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11-04-2011, 03:51 PM
  #152
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Originally Posted by Zip15 View Post
Well, according to you, your play should be commensurate to your contract. Miller has only played two full seasons under this contract, and one of them went above and beyond what anyone could've or should've expected. The second season was disappointing by comparison, but still not bad. He's doing pretty well (.922) this year, too.

And why exactly is Lundqvist worth that money, but not Miller? I'd love to hear this.
As to the first point, I projected his contract an extra season backwards, so that was my error. His one season was indeed fantastic, and he was objectively the best goaltender in the league that year. Last year, he finished 13th in the league in SP among goaltenders with 50 starts or more. It's not the perfect metric for a goaltender, but it's the most valid we have IMO. And in regard to Miller's current year, it isn't poor. But it's not great, either, as evidenced by the fact that he's 17th overall in SP so far, with 10 or so goaltenders in front of him having a similar number of starts.

Lundqvist is pretty much objectively the best goaltender in the league. The top salary for the top goaltender works out imo.

e: I've had that expectation of Vanek,I just don't like to make threads. Also I feel his VORP, if you will, is higher than Miller's relative to what the excess cap would provide.

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Old
11-04-2011, 03:51 PM
  #153
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And I'm sort of glad to see Ruff ride the hotter hand here...even though you knew Jhonas would get tonight or tomorrow and Miller the other.

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11-04-2011, 04:01 PM
  #154
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Originally Posted by Ryan Ellis Problems View Post
As to the first point, I projected his contract an extra season backwards, so that was my error. His one season was indeed fantastic, and he was objectively the best goaltender in the league that year. Last year, he finished 13th in the league in SP among goaltenders with 50 starts or more. It's not the perfect metric for a goaltender, but it's the most valid we have IMO. And in regard to Miller's current year, it isn't poor. But it's not great, either, as evidenced by the fact that he's 17th overall in SP so far, with 10 or so goaltenders in front of him having a similar number of starts.

Lundqvist is pretty much objectively the best goaltender in the league. The top salary for the top goaltender works out imo.
The reality is there isn't really an objective measure for a goalie.

There are too many varibles that impact a goalies save % and gaa to make direct comparisons based on their save% and gaa. The makeup of their defense, the overall talent in front of them, the style of play their team employs (Defensive or offensive), their workload, etc. There will always be a lot of subjectivity in any comparison.

Thats why these debates can and do go on forever


Last edited by joshjull: 11-04-2011 at 04:06 PM.
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Old
11-04-2011, 04:03 PM
  #155
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Originally Posted by joshjull View Post
The reality is there isn't really an objective measure for a goalie.

There are too many varibles that impact a goalies save % and gaa to make direct comparisons based on their save% and gaa. The makeup of their defense, the overall talent in front of them, the style of play their team employs (Defensive or offensive), their workload, etc.

Thats why these debates can and do go on forever
This is absolutely true. Out of everything, though, I think SP is the least terrible. We need Hockey Outsiders .

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11-04-2011, 04:38 PM
  #156
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I want to point out that the "big money" goalies don't make the same amount of money as their big money conterparts at forward or defense. For whatever reason posters have this impression that they are overvalued in the league.

This season

Cap hits

-The top 10 cap hits at forward average out to 8.1mil (ranging from 7.4mil to 9.54mil). They make up 9 of the top 10 cap hits in the league (the other is a dman).

-The top 10 cap hits on defense average out to 6.7mil (ranging from 6.2mil to 7.5mil)

-The top 10 cap hits among goalies averages out to 5.8mil (ranging from 5mil to 6.9mil)


Among the top 50 caphits in the league there are 5 goalies, 11 dmen and 34 forwards (20 centers and 14 wingers). The first goalie is Lundy at 20th.


In actual salaries, in the top 50 there are 6 goalies, 14 dmen and 30 forwards (18 centers and 12 wingers)

Top 10 forwards average actual salaries--> 8.8mil (ranging from 7.9mil to 12mil)
Top 10 dmen average actual salaries -----> 7.6mil (ranging from 6.7mil to 10mil)
Top 10 goalies average actual salaries ----> 6.4mil (ranging from 5.2mil to 10mil)

The big money goalies do not make money on par with their counterparts at forward and defense.


Btw if you wondering why I don't have Rinne in the numbers its because his deal starts next year. When we have all the deals in place for that season we can compare again.


Last edited by joshjull: 11-04-2011 at 04:56 PM.
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Old
11-04-2011, 05:43 PM
  #157
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joshjull View Post
I want to point out that the "big money" goalies don't make the same amount of money as their big money conterparts at forward or defense. For whatever reason posters have this impression that they are overvalued in the league.

This season

Cap hits

-The top 10 cap hits at forward average out to 8.1mil (ranging from 7.4mil to 9.54mil). They make up 9 of the top 10 cap hits in the league (the other is a dman).

-The top 10 cap hits on defense average out to 6.7mil (ranging from 6.2mil to 7.5mil)

-The top 10 cap hits among goalies averages out to 5.8mil (ranging from 5mil to 6.9mil)
I don't think that's a really good comparison because there are many more forwards and defensemen than goalies. And there are more forwards than defensemen.

When you look at the top 10 goalies, you are averaging a much larger chunk of the total number of goalies than when you take the top 10 forwards.

Here's another way to look at it.

2011-12 Cap hit averages:

Top 10% of forwards = $6.6 million
Top 10% of defensemen = $5.8 million
Top 10% of goalies = $6.0 million

It's much closer when you look at it this way.

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11-04-2011, 11:58 PM
  #158
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I'd go back to Miller for tomorrow.

If Enroth had held on for another shutout tonight, though, I would have continued riding him.

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11-05-2011, 06:26 PM
  #159
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ryan Ellis Problems View Post
Consider goaltender "A" as the average NHL netminder with skill similar to Enroth, and "B" a goaltender of Miller's caliber. You can either pay "A" a contract with a cap hit of $X, or pay "B" a higher salary, or $Y.

All things being equal, let's say:

B averages out to a .922 or so SP for a season.
A averages out to .910 over the same span.

I don't feel these productions would be too radical in terms of Enroth/Miller, but you may disagree.

Let's say the Sabres D gives up 35 shots per game. B gives up 224 goals, A 258 over a season. That's two more goals allowed every 5 games by A.

The question, then, is if $Y-X could be used to better support A's team to the point where B's absence doesn't negatively affect the team's record. The Sabres, in offering Miller a contract that made him one of the highest paid goalies in the league, made the decision in favor of B. This decision requires Miller to live up to the performance expected of him and maintain the difference between B and A's production, or else $Y-X begins to look much more attractive in terms of acquiring either an offensive player that can help produce more than 2 goals per 5 games or a defensive player that would lower opponents' scoring by more than 2 per 5.
This has been my stance all along.

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11-05-2011, 06:43 PM
  #160
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ryan Ellis Problems View Post
Consider goaltender "A" as the average NHL netminder with skill similar to Enroth, and "B" a goaltender of Miller's caliber. You can either pay "A" a contract with a cap hit of $X, or pay "B" a higher salary, or $Y.

All things being equal, let's say:

B averages out to a .922 or so SP for a season.
A averages out to .910 over the same span.

I don't feel these productions would be too radical in terms of Enroth/Miller, but you may disagree.

Let's say the Sabres D gives up 35 shots per game. B gives up 224 goals, A 258 over a season. That's two more goals allowed every 5 games by A.

The question, then, is if $Y-X could be used to better support A's team to the point where B's absence doesn't negatively affect the team's record. The Sabres, in offering Miller a contract that made him one of the highest paid goalies in the league, made the decision in favor of B. This decision requires Miller to live up to the performance expected of him and maintain the difference between B and A's production, or else $Y-X begins to look much more attractive in terms of acquiring either an offensive player that can help produce more than 2 goals per 5 games or a defensive player that would lower opponents' scoring by more than 2 per 5.
Or we can just keep both, stop spending so much goddamned money on wingers and wingers we hope can play center, and start reallocating that money away from the wing into the center position. I like my idea better.

I'm not necessarily referring to you here, but so many people operate from the premise that the only way we can reallocate how we spend our cap dollars is by moving Miller. Rare is it that someone actually brings up how much money is dumped into our wings. No, it's Miller's contract that's the problem. It drives me up the wall, because it reveals that it's not so much about reallocation, it's about getting rid of Miller.

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11-05-2011, 07:13 PM
  #161
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I don't disagree that the Sabres could spend better than they currently do on wingers, Zip. I just feel that goaltender is a position that doesn't need a highly-paid player due to the relative ability of a lesser-paid player.

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