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Correlation between production in junior and the NHL...

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Old
11-04-2011, 11:03 AM
  #1
InvalidUsername
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Correlation between production in junior and the NHL...

Are there many (any) stars in the NHL who played in, but did NOT dominate junior?

I define dominate as more than 40 goals in a healthy junior season, or more than 1.25 points per game for forwards (the NHL equivalent of a 100 point pace), during any year of their junior eligibility. (So no overagers please.)

I'd also ask that we exclude players who jumped straight from the draft to the NHL. I think it's safe to assume they would have been dominant junior players were they not in the NHL.


Last edited by InvalidUsername: 11-04-2011 at 07:56 PM.
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Old
11-04-2011, 11:24 AM
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Scarecrow Boat
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Quote:
Originally Posted by InvalidUsername View Post
Are there many (any) stars in the NHL who didn't dominate junior?

I define dominate as more than 40 goals in a healthy junior season, or more than 1.25 points per game (the NHL equivalent of a100 point pace) during any year of their junior eligibility. (So no overagers please.)
Most guys who didn't dominate at a young age and develop into stars are either European or went the college route. Example: Zetterberg, Datsyuk, Demitra, St. Louis, etc.
Only guy I can think of right now is Jamie Benn but he was drafted out of the BCHL & did fairly well in the WHL after that.
Ah just thought of another one, Ryan Getzlaf. His career high in points in the WHL was 75, he's topped that 3 times in the NHL.


Last edited by Scarecrow Boat: 11-04-2011 at 11:32 AM.
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Old
11-04-2011, 11:34 AM
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Breakfast of Champs
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Lucic's most pts in a junior season was 68, probably not classified as a star in the nhl but very well could become one

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Old
11-04-2011, 11:43 AM
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King Woodballs
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daigle and falloon say hi

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Old
11-04-2011, 11:46 AM
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Scarecrow Boat
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Quote:
Originally Posted by King Woodballs View Post
daigle and falloon say hi
Daigle had skill. Didn't have the desire to play hockey for a living...
Falloon was kind of similar. Nicknamed Fat Balloon for a reason.

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Old
11-04-2011, 11:51 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by King Woodballs View Post
daigle and falloon say hi
I think the OP is getting at the reverse of this. We all know that many stars in junior can't turn that into pro stardom, but how often do average players in junior leagues become stars in the NHL? Basically, what portion of NHL scorers are late bloomers?

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11-04-2011, 11:53 AM
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Yeah if Daigle had the work ethic of most hockey players he would have been a star for sure.

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Old
11-04-2011, 12:10 PM
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Kris Versteeg is no star but he didn't take the easy road to the NHL.

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Old
11-04-2011, 12:17 PM
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Shea Weber didn't put up the numbers in WHL that would led you to believe he'd be a 50 point defender in the NHL.

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11-04-2011, 12:41 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Freudian View Post
Shea Weber didn't put up the numbers in WHL that would led you to believe he'd be a 50 point defender in the NHL.
Mike Green is similar. Career high in the WHL was 14 goals lol 31 in the NHL

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11-04-2011, 12:58 PM
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Joe Hallenback
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Quote:
Originally Posted by InvalidUsername View Post
Are there many (any) stars in the NHL who didn't dominate junior?

I define dominate as more than 40 goals in a healthy junior season, or more than 1.25 points per game (the NHL equivalent of a100 point pace) during any year of their junior eligibility. (So no overagers please.)
Off the top of my head

Getzlaf

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Old
11-04-2011, 01:08 PM
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Quote:
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Mike Green is similar. Career high in the WHL was 14 goals lol 31 in the NHL
But he also had 52 assists that season. And it's not like he was instantly a star at the NHL when he moved in.The year after his 66 point WHL season he played 56 games in the AHL, the next year 12. So it took him three years after his draft to become a NHL regular. And besides that one 31 goal season he has never hit 20 (mainly due to injuries but still has yet to surpass 20). Either way though a 66 point in 67 games as a defencemen in the WHL is insane numbers. He did dominate juniors, just not so much with his shot (which he has yet to do except for one season)

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11-04-2011, 01:23 PM
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But he also had 52 assists that season. And it's not like he was instantly a star at the NHL when he moved in.The year after his 66 point WHL season he played 56 games in the AHL, the next year 12. So it took him three years after his draft to become a NHL regular. And besides that one 31 goal season he has never hit 20 (mainly due to injuries but still has yet to surpass 20). Either way though a 66 point in 67 games as a defencemen in the WHL is insane numbers. He did dominate juniors, just not so much with his shot (which he has yet to do except for one season)
Yes he had 66 points in 65 games however he did that as a 19 year old. We see that type of production every year from 19 year olds...

Example: Ryan Kavanaugh put up 70 points last year in 68 games.
Josh McFadden put up 72 in 67.
Stefan Elliott had 81 in 71
Do you see one of those guys putting up 30+ goals in the NHL at some point?

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Old
11-04-2011, 01:24 PM
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SmellOfVictory
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There are a number of guys who break out in junior after their draft year, but it's fairly rare for someone to go the entirety of junior without dominating at some point, then turning into a top-level NHLer

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Old
11-04-2011, 01:47 PM
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Patrice Bergeron scored as many points in his 2nd NHL season as he ever did in junior (73 points in 70 games was his junior best)

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Old
11-04-2011, 01:52 PM
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Rick Nash was decent, but not spectacular. Score one for scouting over stats, because he was a consensus top pick despite being ho-hum (72 points in his draft year).

Nash has averaged more goals in the NHL than he did in the CHL.

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Old
11-04-2011, 04:53 PM
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Ray emery was playing junior C a year or two before he got drafted.
He had a few good years in ottawa before he went bonkers

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Old
11-04-2011, 05:11 PM
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Jordan Staal went from PPG in the OHL to 41 points and 29 goals in the NHL. His PPG only went down by half, which is actually insane.

Another unlikely junior player who has done well in the NHL is Dave Perron. His draft year, which was technically his post-draft year because he wasnt drafted as an 18 year old, he had 83 points in 70 games.

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Old
11-04-2011, 07:46 PM
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Bill Ladd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by IloveChrisNeil View Post
Kris Versteeg is no star but he didn't take the easy road to the NHL.
I believe Versteeg played a lot of defense in junior. That's why his numbers were deflated.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Joe Hallenback View Post
Off the top of my head

Getzlaf
Getzlaf had 1.53ppg in his post draft year, which falls under the OP's definition of dominant. That's 107 pts if he plays a full season that year.


To the OP: I think you could find a lot of stars that don't meet your criteria because they stepped right into the NHL. But that's sort of a loophole because one would think that if you're good enough to play in the NHL then you'd dominate juniors.

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Old
11-04-2011, 07:53 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Ladd View Post
To the OP: I think you could find a lot of stars that don't meet your criteria because they stepped right into the NHL. But that's sort of a loophole because one would think that if you're good enough to play in the NHL then you'd dominate juniors.
Good point. Parameters updated.

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Old
11-04-2011, 07:54 PM
  #21
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Zach Parise turned it up from junior to pro

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Old
11-04-2011, 07:58 PM
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Quote:
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Zach Parise turned it up from junior to pro
Parise was a college kid. And a dominant one at that.

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