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Grabner Breakaways....how Many?

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Old
11-10-2011, 09:18 PM
  #1
Carrick
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Grabner Breakaways....how Many?

How many breakaways does he have? anyone track that? seems like at two per game on average

If he scored on even 20% of them he would lead the league in goals? Wonder if they ever thought of bringing somebody in to work with him on breakaways at practice?

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11-10-2011, 09:25 PM
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Renbarg
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Less than last year but more than any player in the league (I don't know for sure, but that's a fairly safe assumption). When he gets hot he'll be averaging 2 a game for sure.

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11-10-2011, 09:26 PM
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Kevin27nyi
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Last year I'd say he averaged 3 every 2 games, this year I'd say he has a breakaway every two games.

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11-10-2011, 09:36 PM
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I don't remember, but was he generating a ton of breakaways early in the season? either way it doesn't matter if he can't score at least on 30% of them.

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11-11-2011, 03:03 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Carrick View Post
How many breakaways does he have? anyone track that? seems like at two per game on average

If he scored on even 20% of them he would lead the league in goals? Wonder if they ever thought of bringing somebody in to work with him on breakaways at practice?
20% seems too little. Ok maybe this year he scored on 20% but last year he was doing better when he was hot. And he was hot for a long time...

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11-11-2011, 08:11 AM
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John TavArt Ross
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Last night's game shows how badly we need him to net more of these chances. He's got no moves, so he should be committing to a shot much further away from the goalie.

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11-11-2011, 08:58 AM
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Breakaways are not an easy thing to do. People expect a guy on a breakaway to always score yet statistically the goaltender has the huge advantage. I do not know the exact numbers of breakaway for players and goals. However, I remember in the Bates goal Howie talking about how advantage goes to the goalie on penalty shots. Also, you can see in the shootout that the majority of chances are stopped. Clearly a breakaway is not as easy as people think.

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11-11-2011, 09:24 AM
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John TavArt Ross
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Originally Posted by Islanders1932 View Post
Breakaways are not an easy thing to do. People expect a guy on a breakaway to always score yet statistically the goaltender has the huge advantage. I do not know the exact numbers of breakaway for players and goals. However, I remember in the Bates goal Howie talking about how advantage goes to the goalie on penalty shots. Also, you can see in the shootout that the majority of chances are stopped. Clearly a breakaway is not as easy as people think.
I thought breakaway went more towards the shooter since the goalie doesn't have much time to set since it can happen at any time.. Penalty shots and shootouts of course will always go to the goalie unless we put a soccer net out there.

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11-11-2011, 09:33 AM
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luki here
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Originally Posted by Spasm37 View Post
I thought breakaway went more towards the shooter since the goalie doesn't have much time to set since it can happen at any time.. Penalty shots and shootouts of course will always go to the goalie unless we put a soccer net out there.
penalties must be easier than breakaways. Goalie has plenty of time to get set, the difference must be that the player has less time to get a shot off, since the d is tracking him.

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11-11-2011, 10:04 AM
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i'm just happy that Grabner's getting the chances. When he isn't generating the chances he's a liability out there, or if we're lucky, just invisible.

Grabner needs to use his speed more. To carry the puck more, to back-up the defense and open up ice, to be more noticeable in general.

Nielsen's been paying like crap this year. He's been good positionally and hasn't had many screw-ups defensively, he's still capable, but offensively he's been a disappointment. I was hoping for more based on how he played last year with Grabs and KO.

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11-11-2011, 11:26 AM
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StrongIslanders90
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He cant finish!!!....He uses the same move every time......He fades away to the right and trys to wrist/snap it over the goalies right shoulder......Frans needs to show him some dekes!!!

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11-11-2011, 02:32 PM
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It looks like a classic Sophomore Slump to me. He's older than you usually see this in, but he's getting his chances. He has also had progress and made some points.

I am far more concerned about Bailey, Okposo, and Comeau. Those three are bigger problems at the moment. Nielsen also is worse than normal and we all respect him for his defensive smarts.

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11-11-2011, 02:51 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Isle Junkie View Post
I don't remember, but was he generating a ton of breakaways early in the season? either way it doesn't matter if he can't score at least on 30% of them.
I don't believe he did. He started to break out after that losing skid.

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11-11-2011, 04:24 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Isle Junkie View Post
I don't remember, but was he generating a ton of breakaways early in the season? either way it doesn't matter if he can't score at least on 30% of them.
As far as chances go he was going about the same as he is now. Nothing as ridiculous as the latter part of last season. I remember we called him Bergenheim v 2.0 in November because he was getting breakaways and not finishing them just like bergy.

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11-11-2011, 04:35 PM
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It looks like Grabner's finishing could use some work. With the speed he has he is bound to get at least one breakaway per game, he just needs to finish in a more clinical manner.

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11-11-2011, 05:25 PM
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Grabner had the right idea on his chances last night, he's just not there yet. Needed the puck a little bit higher on one chance, and he could have benefited to start his move earlier on both of his chances. It's the kind of thing that will probably run hot and cold for him. Grabner's hands are good, they're just not as quick as his feet; just be thankful that he isn't Claude Lapointe on the finish.

If he consistently netted the breakaways, it's not hard to imagine that he would be a 50+ goal scorer. As it is now, he's a 30+ goal guy. He's finished 20+% of his chances this season. He seems to just be getting going and his previous line was fairly out of sync compared to last season. As long as Grabner is getting all of the different types of chances he can generate, he'll be fine. I don't expect him to keep up a 20% shooting percentage, but I do expect him to start getting multiple types of chances again.

By the way, if he doesn't finish the breakaway, it's still good for the team most of the time. The fear of the breakaway is sometimes quite useful. He'll back guys off, get d-men nervous, and sometimes defuse a play just because he's in the vicinity. While it doesn't help if the play ends up coming back the other way and ends up in our own net, most of the time the disruption without a score is still a plus for the team. I do agree that he needs to back guys off with the puck more, but he spent much of last season looking to receive passes with speed instead of rushing with the puck from his own zone. (He'd only really do it on breaks from a turnover.) We haven't really set plays up in our own end for Grabner to carry. If he got comfortable doing that, it would do wonders for our entry.

I might be in the minority on this one, but I think Grabner's abilities without the puck are highly underrated. He dogs the puck carrier very well, and I'm sure I can't be the only one who noticed that he cut down on the cherry picking when it was obvious that his previous linemates weren't playing like they were last year.

Nielsen is weak down low on offense and on defense. He's not shy about contact and competing for pucks, but he's never going to be bigger even if he's relatively strong for his size. Nielsen is also obviously weak at faceoffs. As far as I'm concerned, he's a great utility forward who can play on almost any line and in any situation, but I think we may wish to use him as a winger since we don't have the big forwards to aid him. I also believe that Nielsen seems a bit slower at reading the play to me this year for some reason. Not sure why. He just seems a step slower than usual in his arrival to the right areas. Since positioning is the biggest strength of his game, that's a big problem. I've wondered if he's been playing hurt and it's a physical instead of a mental problem.

Generally, this team has never been well-constituted during the rebuild. We do have prospects that could provide a better makeup, but it's anyone's best guess when the impact of our handful of more talented and/or bigger forward prospects make their way here.

Right now, our group of forwards is an odd mixture of mostly skilled players with less than high-end physical attributes. Don't expect this to be the team that takes us to the promised land, but there are at least a few components in place that can easily be complemented to take us there.

,
Mitch

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11-11-2011, 05:31 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by StrongIslanders90 View Post
He cant finish!!!....He uses the same move every time......He fades away to the right and trys to wrist/snap it over the goalies right shoulder......Frans needs to show him some dekes!!!
He went 5-hole on the backhand on one play and was trying to put the puck over the pad on his 2nd chance. He has more than one move, but he's not smooth with any of them at his breakaway speed. He'll need to learn to to start earlier and he definitely needs to develop a "go to" move like you mention. Even if he uses it most of the time, his speed will always make it dangerous. I think he's fine with the backhand through the legs and going for the shots he does, but he needs to commit to it a bit earlier. As odd as it sounds, he gets to the goal too fast for his own good when it comes to the finish.

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11-11-2011, 05:59 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mitchy22 View Post
He went 5-hole on the backhand on one play and was trying to put the puck over the pad on his 2nd chance. He has more than one move, but he's not smooth with any of them at his breakaway speed. He'll need to learn to to start earlier and he definitely needs to develop a "go to" move like you mention. Even if he uses it most of the time, his speed will always make it dangerous. I think he's fine with the backhand through the legs and going for the shots he does, but he needs to commit to it a bit earlier. As odd as it sounds, he gets to the goal too fast for his own good when it comes to the finish.

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Mitch
Thanks Mitch....always respect and look foward to your opinions.....

So what your saying is by the time he gets the shot off he is too close to the goalie/net to get the spot he wants?

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11-11-2011, 06:55 PM
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He is fast but he sucks at breakaways. He very below average finishing breakaways b

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11-11-2011, 08:07 PM
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mitchy22
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Originally Posted by StrongIslanders90 View Post
Thanks Mitch....always respect and look foward to your opinions.....

So what your saying is by the time he gets the shot off he is too close to the goalie/net to get the spot he wants?
Pretty often, that's the case. The closer you get, the less options you have. Grabner's hands are not as quick as his feet, but it's not like he's missing by much on some of these opportunities and his stickhandling is still good once he's gliding. Forehand to backhand and 5-hole is a good move if you see it open the goalie's legs, but the goalies aren't even reacting quick enough to open up for Grabner and the puck can easily bounce or roll at high speed. If the goalie is late, a stick or part of a pad is often still nearby to reduce your chances. If the puck rolls, you're better off keeping it wide and raising it up early on your backhand. (The puck rolling makes it easier for you to raise it if it ends up flat against your blade. The puck rolling towards 5-hole makes it easier for a raised stick to still get a piece of it and a short nudge doesn't help you as much as if it was flat.)

Grabner isn't bad at picking his spots and has enough velocity to score from medium range without a problem. Both of the opportunities from the last game, if I remember correctly, he didn't shoot or make his move until he was in or about the paint. When you're as quick as he is, you don't need to get in that tight because the goalie already has reduced time to react. If you're trying to get the goalie to commit, you have to start that much earlier when you're coming in quickly.

Nielsen's move is effective because he doesn't come in as fast as Grabner and is able to quickly go forehand to backhand and get the puck high even from in very close. Few players can pull that off as consistently as Nielsen does while still keeping the goalie honest and looking for the forehand. You'll even notice that if Nielsen is coming in faster, that he goes backhand more quickly.

The higher speed you're coming in at, the earlier you have to make a move and it's to your advantage to do so. If it's a fake, you have less time to adjust to the goalie's reaction. Fake too late, and he doesn't have time to be faked!

If your first move (or shot) is what you're trying to score on, then the longer you wait, the less space you have to work. Grabner needs to do everything earlier because of that speed. He should be 5 feet in front of the paint even if he goes to his backhand and his first move should probably be 10 feet further out from that. Otherwise, the goalie just doesn't have the time to react and every second reduces the amount of empty net to work with.

You don't even need to take my word for it, look at where his goals actually go in from when he has time and space:


Edit - Also, look at how awkward the "breakaway" goals he scores in tight end up looking. Notice in that great goal where he miffed the first chance, got way too close, made a quick move, and then the puck rolled on him; he had to go retrieve it. Of course, his speed allowed him to race around the net and get another chance and score.
,
Mitch


Last edited by mitchy22: 11-11-2011 at 08:26 PM.
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Old
11-11-2011, 09:32 PM
  #21
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I'm just glad he's resembling the player we saw last year.

I agree with Mitchy that he does wait too long to make his move, but I also notice that his head is down a lot on his breakaways and therefore he limits his view. Compounded by his lack of pure finish, I don't see pure finishing hands, "goal scorer's" hands, if you will.

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11-11-2011, 10:18 PM
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Grabner is a slow starter and I am confident he will repeat his 30 goal season. 13 games in he has 5 goals 1 assist opposed to 3 goals 1 assist last year. So he is starting better even though it seems slow. I don't expect him to score 15 goals in 15 games like last year either but feel he will score more evenly with a bit of streakiness. His chances are there and he will start to finish eventually. He gets so many chances that when it starts going his way he will score a ton of goals. Also, it looks to me like he is starting to gel with Moulson and Tavares.

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11-11-2011, 10:31 PM
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Grabner needs to work on his hands and he'll be set...

But I guess that's what made Bure so special. Stick handling and deking at top speed is a ridiculous gift, not sure hard work can ever get you to that level.

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Old
11-12-2011, 04:23 AM
  #24
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We've seen that on the goals that Grabener has scored, he has a very good shot. Yet, I never see him use it on a breakaway. He always gets too close to the goalie, tries to go backhand, and ultimately gets a weak, easily blocked shot. I think if he used a wrist shot more often, or anything that wan't such a finesse move, then he would score much more often.

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11-12-2011, 05:26 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nyiguy21 View Post
Grabner is a slow starter and I am confident he will repeat his 30 goal season. 13 games in he has 5 goals 1 assist opposed to 3 goals 1 assist last year. So he is starting better even though it seems slow. I don't expect him to score 15 goals in 15 games like last year either but feel he will score more evenly with a bit of streakiness. His chances are there and he will start to finish eventually. He gets so many chances that when it starts going his way he will score a ton of goals. Also, it looks to me like he is starting to gel with Moulson and Tavares.
Just go back to last season and look at the posts, nyiguy21 hit it spot on. Everybody was complaining about how Grabner couldn't finish and it was a shame because he'd be a great scorer and then he started finishing. Be patient, he did the same thing last year and he'll be fine and start capitalizing.

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