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San Jose Sharks vs Detroit Red Wings November 17, 2011 7:30pm PST

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Old
11-18-2011, 09:49 PM
  #576
Les Wynan*
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OneTooth View Post
Why wouldn't it be a serious post?

If you haven't noticed, most other teams in the league don't play like DET and can still find success. DET hasn't been relevant for years. I've never been a fan of the Sharks trying to cop DET's style of play.

Yesterday's game was a prime example why. DET had tons of low percentage shots from the perimeter, tons of possession time and nothing to show for it. And that same story has applied to the Sharks over and over as well.

Here's a quote from DET's board:
Obviously Fugu doesn't follow the Sharks or he/she would know that the Sharks usually employ the same strategy and, more often than acceptable, end up getting shut out or scoring only a few goals on a ton of shots.
Define "more than acceptable." Because, in case you weren't aware, since McLellan and his allegedly ineffective system arrived in San Jose in 2008, no team in the NHL has won more regular season games than the Sharks. Factor in the playoffs and only Vancouver has more victories in that span and guess what? The bulk of those postseason wins for the Canucks came last year with Vigneault employing a system extremely similar to Detroit's. It feels like you have the unreasonable expectation that the Sharks need to win every game they play or at least win games at a rate that's pretty much impossible given the parity in the league.

The Blackhawks have been as blatant a rip-off of the Red Wings' system under Quenneville as the Sharks have under McLellan and they have a Stanley Cup at the end of one of the most dominant seasons we're likely to ever see in the post-lockout NHL to show for it. The Penguins have used a system very close to that of Detroit under Bylsma and have a Cup of their own as well as a terrific record over the past two seasons and counting to show for it. Of course the majority of teams don't play Detroit's style because it takes an incredible amount of skill to do so and most teams just don't have that kind of talent and depth in their lineup. They usually don't have tangible success unless they play in the weaker Eastern Conference where it isn't impossible to fluke your way to a series victory or two (I'm looking at you, 2010 Habs).

The most important thing to keep in mind is, as I said earlier, that it's been statistically shown that no team is substantially more likely to score on a given shot than another team in the long run, regardless of the effects that random variance can have on a small sample of games that the Wings fan you quoted is obviously knee-jerking (that sounds dirty) in response to. Even-strength shooting percentages league-wide last season ranged from 6.5% to 8.8%. That isn't a terrifically wide spread and if you remove two significant outliers in New Jersey and Ottawa from the sample, it was 7.0% to 8.8%. This study shows that there has been essentially zero year-to-year correlation in shooting percentage among teams in the NHL over the past four seasons which proves that the teams at the upper level of shooting percentage in a given season aren't there because of some sort of inherent discrepancy in shooting skill or because they're shooting from more high-percentage areas; it's just the result of variance seeing as teams almost never retain their league-wide ES SH% ranking over a number of seasons. Why did the Sharks shoot 8.6% at even strength in 09-10, one of the highest percentages in the league, and just 7.5% last year despite the same coaching staff and pretty much all the same players? There's ample proof that shooting percentage just isn't something teams can really influence one way or another in the long term but all the proof in the world that shot differential is.

tl;dr version: All the cool kids (Chicago, Vancouver, Pittsburgh, Detroit) are doing it (and having sustained success in the process) so why shouldn't we?

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11-18-2011, 09:57 PM
  #577
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Les Wynan View Post

tl;dr version: All the cool kids (Chicago, Vancouver, Pittsburgh, Detroit) are doing it (and having sustained success in the process) so why shouldn't we?
Because peer pressure is bad.

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Old
11-18-2011, 11:28 PM
  #578
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Its funny how we all have such different opinions on who scares us the most. For me, no players scare me more than Datsyuk and Zetterberg offensively. I don't think there are any players in the West that are as effective of making something out of nothing. RPG can absolutely dominant shifts consistently, but they play a wear you down style that often takes the full shift to end up in the net. The Sedins, and I think our top 6 are similar. Datsyuk and Zetterberg are threats because they are so capable of stealing the puck and going the other way, or receiving a pass in the neutral zone, and gliding past five defenders with ease. However, outside of those two, only Franzen is a major threat, and he has seemed to struggle mightily against the Sharks the past two years (the five goal game not withstanding). I think it is reasonable for Zues, Mitchell, McGinn, Winchester, Desjardin, and Murray to be within two goals versus Helm, Abdlekader, Emmerton, Miller, Hudler, and Holmstrom (if excluding his PP goals). That's a huge problem for Detroit, because Clowe, Couture, and Havlat are going to light Bertuzzi, Cleary, and Flip up.

The teams that worries me the most is Chicago, because their third line is vastly superior to our own, and Toews, Kane, Sharp, and Hossa are perfectly capable of outplaying Marleau, Thornton, Pavelski, and Havlat. Sure Clowe and Couture are world's better than Carcillo and Smith/Morin/Olesz, but they could easily close that gap at the deadline. In addition, I'd take Keith and Seabrook over Boyle and Burns any day of the weak, and it is arguable that Leddy, Hjalmmarsson, O'Donnel, and Montador are better than Vlasic, Murray, Vandermerr/White, Demers/Braun. They aren't the team that one the cup, but they are fairly close.

Vancouver also worries me because their top 6 should be competitive with ours. Sedins and Kesler are superior to Thornton, Marleau, and Pavs (though I do think Pavs is catching Kesler, course I wouldn't tell that to Nucks fans), while Burrows, Booth, and Higgins fall short of of Havlat, Clowe, and Couture. Like with Chicago their bottom six is far better than ours, and Lou despite all his postseason troubles is more capable than Niemi of stealing a win (also more capable of blowing a game/series). I do prefer our defense however, especially given Ballard's play. If Salo were to be injured the balance sway's way in San Jose's favor. Unlike last year, our depth d-men are better than theirs.

In the East, Pittsburgh one of the league's best defenses, bottom 6s, goalies, and top 2 centers. Than their wingers are Sullivan, Neal, and Kunitz. Imagine if they added someone like Bourque and Crosby comes back strong. I tend to think Philly had too much turnover, but their defense and offenses are awesome. If Bryz is the answer in goal, look out.

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11-19-2011, 10:23 AM
  #579
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I'm not worried about any team except today's Dallas team at this point. There are still far too many games left and far too many things that can happen that will change the dynamic of every team between now and the playoffs which include major injuries and trades.

We're not going to be the same team we are now come the day after the trade deadline and neither will any one of our major competitors. There is still another three months and change until the trade deadline. Besides, if there's anything that last year's team should have learned is that you can't take these early season games for granted and if you can't take that for granted, you damn sure can't take the first two rounds for granted either after getting to the final four twice in a row. Just deal with what's directly in front of you and that's Dallas for now.

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11-19-2011, 01:45 PM
  #580
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Two of defenseman Marc-Edouard Vlasic's teammates were joking Friday about his four-point performance in Thursday night's 5-2 victory over the Detroit Red Wings.

"You here to interview Bobby Orr?" Douglas Murray asked.


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Well, that was another in a long series of regrettable life choices
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11-19-2011, 03:34 PM
  #581
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With the way the Wings have played the past 20 years, you can't help but fear them. A meaningless regular season game means nothing.

Them coming back from a 0-3 playoff deficit and come as close as they did scare the living crap out of me. No other team would've been able to come that close. Yeah, we beat them... but it really was up in the air and either team could've won.

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Old
11-19-2011, 10:44 PM
  #582
OneTooth
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Les Wynan View Post
Define "more than acceptable." Because, in case you weren't aware, since McLellan and his allegedly ineffective system arrived in San Jose in 2008, no team in the NHL has won more regular season games than the Sharks.
The issue isn't winning in the regular season. The issue is scoring 5-on-5 in post season where they don't hand out penalties like they do during the regular season. The Sharks live on the PP during the regular season and that skews their win percentage. The Sharks have consistently struggled to score 5-on-5 in regards to how much talent they have up front IMO.

Quote:
The bulk of those postseason wins for the Canucks came last year with Vigneault employing a system extremely similar to Detroit's.
Vancouver guns for the slot and only pass back to the point as a secondary option. They employ a lot of cross ice/cross crease passes unlike the Sharks who prefer to enter the zone and pass back to the point for a shot as a primary move. Big difference.

Quote:
It feels like you have the unreasonable expectation that the Sharks need to win every game they play or at least win games at a rate that's pretty much impossible given the parity in the league.
I have no idea where you get that idea. What I feel is that the Sharks should have better scoring with the firepower they have. I don't expect them to be shut out as often as they do. I don't expect them to make backup goalies look like superstars as often as they do. I don't expect them to take 40-something shots on goal and lead the league in shots yet struggle to score 5-on-5.

Quote:
The most important thing to keep in mind is, as I said earlier, that it's been statistically shown that no team is substantially more likely to score on a given shot than another team in the long run
There's a fallacy in the interpretation of the data in that link you posted. Nowhere does it correlate SH% with where the shot is taken, which is my main gripe. If the Sharks can manage 40 SOG from the slot/scoring areas I'd be more than happy. 40 shots mostly from the perimeter is a waste and I'd rather see 20 shots from the scoring areas instead.

Find me stats that show shooting from the point is as effective as shooting from the slot/scoring areas. If that were true then DET would've won the game. It's not like SJ has a stellar defense.

I'd rather see the forwards work on scoring in the scoring areas and not be puck retrievers and screeners for the D.

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Old
11-19-2011, 11:26 PM
  #583
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OneTooth View Post
There's a fallacy in the interpretation of the data in that link you posted. Nowhere does it correlate SH% with where the shot is taken, which is my main gripe. If the Sharks can manage 40 SOG from the slot/scoring areas I'd be more than happy. 40 shots mostly from the perimeter is a waste and I'd rather see 20 shots from the scoring areas instead.

Find me stats that show shooting from the point is as effective as shooting from the slot/scoring areas. If that were true then DET would've won the game. It's not like SJ has a stellar defense.

I'd rather see the forwards work on scoring in the scoring areas and not be puck retrievers and screeners for the D.
I think you're misunderstanding the import of that data. What it proves is that single-season discrepancy in shooting percentage between teams, at least for the past four seasons, has essentially been the result of luck. If some teams take a significantly larger percentage of their shots from the slot leading to a higher SH%, as you claim, why has no team been able to sustain that from year to year?

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11-20-2011, 10:13 PM
  #584
OneTooth
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Les Wynan View Post
If some teams take a significantly larger percentage of their shots from the slot leading to a higher SH%, as you claim, why has no team been able to sustain that from year to year?
Injuries, new teammates, new coaches, new system, etc. Could be a ton of different factors. That's why I'd rather see percentages from certain areas vs team % from year to year.

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