Love the idea of moving Amac back to his natural position, and Stewart could definitely benefit from playing next to a speedy and skilled play-maker like him. Although I do love the kid-line, I think Oshie always does best playing next to his mentor Backes. Love your lines, but here's what I would go with...Tell me whatcha think?
Steen-Backes-Oshie(Possibly the best two-way line in the league)
Perron-Berglund-Tarasenko(Could be VERY similar to Russian E-L-T Line! Peanut butter and toast line?)
Schwartz-Amac-Stewart(Two play-makers and a sniper)
Grachev-Sobotka-D'Agostini(Fast and furious)
Love the idea of moving Amac back to his natural position, and Stewart could definitely benefit from playing next to a speedy and skilled play-maker like him. Although I do love the kid-line, I think Oshie always does best playing next to his mentor Backes. Love your lines, but here's what I would go with...Tell me whatcha think?
Steen-Backes-Oshie(Possibly the best two-way line in the league)
Perron-Berglund-Tarasenko(Could be VERY similar to Russian E-L-T Line! Peanut butter and toast line?) Schwartz-Amac-Stewart(Two play-makers and a sniper)
Grachev-Sobotka-D'Agostini(Fast and furious)
This line would be fast and offensively skilled but it would be incredibly one-dimensional. I don't see it happening. Stewart is big but soft and is mediocre defensively. McDonald and Schwartz are small and defense is neither's forte. Would get pushed around and would have a tough time backchecking.
Andy Mac is so fast and skilled but he has little finishing power. Great creator of scoring opportunities. If you're moving him to center I'd want to put some wingers with finish who won't get pushed around, without using Oshie on the line because those two are the top playmakers.
This line would be fast and offensively skilled but it would be incredibly one-dimensional. I don't see it happening. Stewart is big but soft and is mediocre defensively. McDonald and Schwartz are small and defense is neither's forte. Would get pushed around and would have a tough time backchecking.
Andy Mac is so fast and skilled but he has little finishing power. Great creator of scoring opportunities. If you're moving him to center I'd want to put some wingers with finish who won't get pushed around, without using Oshie on the line because those two are the top playmakers.
I could see Schwartz-McDonald-Stewart happening at home when we have the last change. I'll take that line against practically any team's third line, and a decent number of second lines as well. McDonald and Schwartz have enough compete and defensive responsibility to backcheck hard, the puck skills to play an effective possession game, and the puck smarts to not make bad turnovers. Their defense in transition and off the rush should be just fine.
Defense when the other team has set-up in the zone could be a problem, but that shouldn't happen all that often...and the lines they should be matched up against probably won't be able to consistently generate dangerous scoring opportunities off the cycle anyway. That line should score more than enough to make up for what they're giving up defensively, IMO.
On the road is a different matter entirely. Personally, I like your second set of lines best for that scenario.
The Blues can roll 4 lines with speed and skill that can score and put pressure on the other team. It certainly gives Armstrong some flexibility to make a deal or two.
A caution before Tarasenko is too praised for two-way play. In the series of games I've watched, I've seen him come back to the zone but I'm struggling to recall a single instance where he dug the puck out along the boards and started a play back up ice. He really doesn't do that on his Russian team, and he'll have to learn to do it with the Blues. It's not an attitude issue, it seems to be done this way by design over there, which bodes well for him adapting over here.
The style is a little different too. His shifts for Sibir tend to be very long (though the games for the Russian national team in mid-Dec he got 4th line short shifts) which is understandable because he's easily Sibir's best player. Here they'd be short.
His attitude seems to be the right one. I think if he played with skilled players who led him by example defensively (Steen, Backes, Oshie, Berglund, Perron*) he'll see what he has to do to be successful in the NHL.
Another factor is that with the far wider ice surface in Europe, it costs much more energy to board battle in the defensive end as there is so much more perimeter room. One skilled move on a backchecker and that guy is stranded along the boards while the attacking player has plenty of ice to skate in toward the net. This is going to be an adjustment. Tarasenko has crazy puck skills when facing up and attacking the net (think: nine-of-hearts caliber moves in his toolbox) so should have plenty of confidence in the offensive zone but is going to have to learn to win battles in the defensive zone to help his team regain possession.
McDonald or Perron paired with Tarasenko will be absolutelysick in the offensive zone. He will slip to open ice the way Hull used to do and those two will make beautiful passes to him when he's open and in shooting position. Nobody has Hull's release, but Tarasenko is the guy you absolutely want finishing those feeds from #10 and #57. You need a big, defensive-minded body like Backes or Berglund to complete any line with Tarasenko + Perron/McDonald.
*Perron has the right backchecking attitude but is clearly a little tentative going in full gusto to a board battle for obvious reasons.
Lately Vladimir wasn't very impressive, but today he's got a 4 points game (2+2) while Sibir beat Lev 4-2. It's a bit confusing on statistics, but he's either 18+19 or 18+18 in 37 games. Not bad in any case for 20 years old. And much better than what Kuznetsov has...
Thank you kindly sir. BTW how about that 2nd goal? Gets hooked, falls, and still hits the five-hole! Amazing! Also, it would be cool if they could play that techno music after he scores for the Blues just to make him feel a little more at home.
Really feel like an expectation of 20 goals in 82 games is very reasonable for his first season. His ceiling is clearly higher than that but it's unfair to expect any rookie to reach his ceiling right away.
I think 20 is reasonable because such a high percentage of his production is his own effort. Speed, power, nose for the net, instinct for creating space in the offensive zone. He will play with linemates who will find him and he has a quick, accurate, powerful release. He's simply an elite talent. Would hate to see this kid dealt. He's the finisher they desperately need. What everyone wishes Chris Stewart would be in a power forward with finish – that's what Tarasenko is.
I think he could probably play LW if needed also. For example, if Hitchcock likes Perron on the right side more, Tarasenko-Backes-Perron would work. RW is probably more natural but I don't get a sense that he's less effective on LW.
Really feel like an expectation of 20 goals in 82 games is very reasonable for his first season. His ceiling is clearly higher than that but it's unfair to expect any rookie to reach his ceiling right away.
I think 20 is reasonable because such a high percentage of his production is his own effort. Speed, power, nose for the net, instinct for creating space in the offensive zone. He will play with linemates who will find him and he has a quick, accurate, powerful release. He's simply an elite talent. Would hate to see this kid dealt. He's the finisher they desperately need. What everyone wishes Chris Stewart would be in a power forward with finish – that's what Tarasenko is.
I think he could probably play LW if needed also. For example, if Hitchcock likes Perron on the right side more, Tarasenko-Backes-Perron would work. RW is probably more natural but I don't get a sense that he's less effective on LW.
I think 20-30-50 would be a reasonable expectation for Tarasenko (+/-10 points).
I doubt Tarasenko gets top line time for any prolonged portion his first year. I would expect he plays on the 2nd or third line. Which is one of the reasons I would like to see the Blues bring in a 3rd/2nd line center with 50pt abilities. Financially, that is probably a reasonable expectation.
I think 20-30-50 would be a reasonable expectation for Tarasenko (+/-10 points).
I doubt Tarasenko gets top line time for any prolonged portion his first year. I would expect he plays on the 2nd or third line. Which is one of the reasons I would like to see the Blues bring in a 3rd/2nd line center with 50pt abilities. Financially, that is probably a reasonable expectation.
I take it, then, that you want The Blues to Not re-sign Arnott, and obtain a 50 point 2nd line centre (who is a lot younger, and can play more minutes and is better on defence)? Assuming that Langenbrunner is not re-signed, will they still have room for all of Stewart, Oshie, Perron, Berglund, McDonald, Backes, D'Agostini, Sobotka, Tarasenko and Schwartz AND the new centre? Or do you want one or two of them traded away, and Schwartz to play in Peoria?
Tarasenko is on pace for 321 shots on goal this year with about 19:00 minutes of ice time per game and plenty of PP time. (I can't find any information on missed shots to calculate shots attempted). That number would have ranked him 5th in the NHL last year among all players. That's a pace that would net him about 40 goals with a very reasonable 12.5% shooting percentage.
He probably won't get that much ice time his first year or two in the NHL (although he might earn plenty of PP time), so it's unreasonable to expect that number of shot totals right away, but it's certainly indicative of what he's capable of and his mentality.
If he keeps putting that many shots on net, he's going to score a boatload of goals in the NHL.
Great research job! That is scary to see what this kid could do next year. If this kid does well, Hitch will no doubt play him a lot. Every coach knows a dynamic forward makes a huge difference.
If he backchecks with an honest effort and goes to the net like we see him do in the KHL, I don't see why they wouldn't give him top-6 ice time. Lower league or not, Tarasenko would be getting more ice time than Stewart right now if he were over here, just based on effort.
However, top-6 is a little deceptive because next year for the first time they really will be able to roll out three scoring lines. If no major trade is made and even if Arnott isn't re-signed (could see that going either way, particularly if he agreed to something like 1.5-2M and a 3d/4th tweener vet/leadership role), the Blues will have Backes, Steen, Berglund, McDonald, Oshie, Perron, Stewart, Tarasenko at a minimum. Arnott, Schwartz, McRae, Sobotka, a free agent... it's a team rolling three lines that would all be considered scoring lines.
Point being, with that group of players it's more about seeking balance, chemistry and the right mix of skills than worrying about which is the "top" line, 2d line, etc.
Especially with the way Blues defenders can move the puck, I can't imagine anyone stopping a line with Perron, Backes and Tarasenko on it and that mix of skills is beautiful. Each player can be overwhelming to a defender 1-on-1 for different reasons. Next time a Sibir game is on, for those who watch, try picturing him with Perron and Backes, knowing what those two can do. That whole line could put up scary numbers, the kind where you'd look at the scoring leaders and see some Blues on the first page for the first time in forever.
Tarasenko is on pace for 321 shots on goal this year with about 19:00 minutes of ice time per game and plenty of PP time. (I can't find any information on missed shots to calculate shots attempted). That number would have ranked him 5th in the NHL last year among all players. That's a pace that would net him about 40 goals with a very reasonable 12.5% shooting percentage.
He probably won't get that much ice time his first year or two in the NHL (although he might earn plenty of PP time), so it's unreasonable to expect that number of shot totals right away, but it's certainly indicative of what he's capable of and his mentality.
If he keeps putting that many shots on net, he's going to score a boatload of goals in the NHL.
20 goals like everyone seems to "reasonably" expect would be a disappointment for me, assuming he's getting any kind of reasonable amount of ice time. Sure, it's nice to be conservative in expectations, but all evidence points to us being to get a little more carried away.
Perhaps it's a little hard for Blues fans to buy into the hype, since it's been decades since we've had a forward prospect as highly regarded as Tarasenko.
