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11-27-2011, 07:02 AM
  #26
Enoch
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Originally Posted by Prederator View Post
Well, your comment piqued my interest on the turnover question, so I looked up some stats from last year, as that is a better data set to check out whether Hillen is a Give-away machine. I compared his stats to Kevin Klein, who was also a second pairing defenseman last year. Hillen averaged almost 19 minutes a game for 64 games and had only 26 Give-Aways, or .40 per game, 137th highest among Defensemen in the NHL.

Klein averaged almost 21 minutes a game for 81 games and had 61 Give-Aways or .74 per game, 18th highest among NHL defensemen, and almost twice as many as Hillen.

(FYI, Suter had 47 Give-Aways and Weber had 51 Give-Aways, but those stats don't compare well because they were first pairing defensmen and averaged over 25 mins/game.)

I don't discount what you see with your eyes, but the facts paint a different picture in my opinion.
Good use of statistics, but you truly can't discount the eye test completely as the stats do not account for positioning away from the puck, coverage in and out of the zone, as well as effectiveness in the transition zone.

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11-27-2011, 09:59 AM
  #27
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Originally Posted by Enoch View Post
Good use of statistics, but you truly can't discount the eye test completely as the stats do not account for positioning away from the puck, coverage in and out of the zone, as well as effectiveness in the transition zone.
There are reasons why the NHL pays big money to gather these amazing stats. They mean something. Go to the NHL stats page and look at what you can find out. The amount and category of stats there is mind boggling. The NHL GMs and coaching staffs want these stats and are willing to pay for them. They do have significance.

All I am saying is it is time to move some minutes around on that D-Corps, and the stats support that. Perhaps with Bouillon's injury that will happen. Suter and Weber are logging too many and their play is really starting to show that IMO.

Everything I discussed before last night's game happened. Klein and Bouillon were on the ice for 3 of the 4 goals against. That is not coincidence. It happens every night I have been watching. They may be more physical than Hillen, but Hillen plays a better positional game and makes better decisions. Physicality has a risk and that risk is taking yourself out of position. Against a very hot Redwings team Hillen was one of only 2 Preds with a + last night. And when Klein played with him, he went from -2 to -1.

Getting back to the namesake of this thread, Roman Josi, I thought he played very well. I would recommend he get Bouillon's PP time and Hillen get Bouillon's PK time. Hillen and Klein played very well together and perhaps that would be a good pairing. Put Josi with Blum and see what happens until Bouillon is back.


Last edited by Prederator: 11-27-2011 at 10:20 AM.
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11-27-2011, 11:15 AM
  #28
101st_fan
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Prederator View Post
There are reasons why the NHL pays big money to gather these amazing stats. They mean something. Go to the NHL stats page and look at what you can find out. The amount and category of stats there is mind boggling. The NHL GMs and coaching staffs want these stats and are willing to pay for them. They do have significance.

All I am saying is it is time to move some minutes around on that D-Corps, and the stats support that. Perhaps with Bouillon's injury that will happen. Suter and Weber are logging too many and their play is really starting to show that IMO.

Everything I discussed before last night's game happened. Klein and Bouillon were on the ice for 3 of the 4 goals against. That is not coincidence. It happens every night I have been watching. They may be more physical than Hillen, but Hillen plays a better positional game and makes better decisions. Physicality has a risk and that risk is taking yourself out of position. Against a very hot Redwings team Hillen was one of only 2 Preds with a + last night. And when Klein played with him, he went from -2 to -1.

Getting back to the namesake of this thread, Roman Josi, I thought he played very well. I would recommend he get Bouillon's PP time and Hillen get Bouillon's PK time. Hillen and Klein played very well together and perhaps that would be a good pairing. Put Josi with Blum and see what happens until Bouillon is back.
The giveaway and takeaway stats are like the hits ... very subjective and vary greatly from arena to arena and game to game. How many times have you watched a play, seen a guy clearly give the puck away, then not have it reflect on the scoresheet? The same goes for hits. Plus/minus is a deceptive stat that doesn't tell the whole story. Comparative Corsi, qual comp, and the rest of the advanced stats do a better job, but they still don't tell all as Enoch points out.

Look at the Wings first goal ..... yes, Klein was on the ice so the boards will give him all blame, but, he recognized that the puck was still in play and was in the process of going to the far side when the goal went in. Compare that to Spaling who was on the far side, back turned, with no reaction until the light went on.

I don't see the problem with Suter and Weber as being too much ice time ... it's they are just in the same funk as everyone else. Rinne is off right now, the forwards are off, we're losing key faceoffs, we're losing board battles, sloppy line changes, missed assignments, and generally suffering from a team wide cranial rectal inversion. We keep saying they are elite defensemen, time for them to put up elite blueliner minutes.

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