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Early season struggles

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11-28-2011, 06:38 PM
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Early season struggles

Corey Perry on pace for 63 pts
Ryan Getzlaf on pace for 56 pts
Ludomir Visnovsky on pace for 18 pts
Jarome Iginla on pace for 40 pts
Henrik Zetterberg on pace for 47 pts
Chris Stewart on pace for 22 pts
Patrik Berglund on pace for 24 pts
David Krejci on pace for 41 pts
Eric Staal on pace for 35 pts
Tomas Kaberle on pace for 16 pts
Zach Parise on pace for 44 pts
Kyle Okposo on pace for 25 pts
Nikolai Kulemin on pace for 36 pts
Alexander Ovechkin on pace for 62 pts

I probably missed some others as well.

Why all these early season struggles? I know there are always players that have off years, but this seems like more than usual to me. Most are pretty young so you can’t blame age. What would your explanation be for so many terrible starts?

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11-28-2011, 06:45 PM
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Good question. I think a lot of this is variance. We should get a better idea after more games are played.

I'd also add Bobby Ryan, on pace for 39 points.

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11-28-2011, 06:47 PM
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I personally just say it's just one of those years.

With me watching Zetterberg game in game out...He does get his chances to score, they just aren't going in, his game is slightly off, he doesn't seem himself, maybe his back is acting up again who knows...
but his past few games, I felt he's getting back to his old form again

For the other players, it's possible it's due to the linemate they play with? maybe the other team is starting to really focus on them and prevent them from scoring, and what nots.

Though I think imma just stick with it's just a down year for most players.

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11-28-2011, 07:25 PM
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Originally Posted by 5RingsAndABeer View Post
Good question. I think a lot of this is variance. We should get a better idea after more games are played.
Bingo. The best thing to look at here is PDO, which is the on-ice shooting percentage added to the on-ice save percentage for individual players at even strength. So a player whose teammates are shooting at 8.6% while he's on the ice and whose goaltender is posting a 0.920 SV% in even-strength situations when he's on the ice would have a 1006 PDO. It's essentially a measure of how much puck luck a player has benefited from or not benefited from. Almost all players converge to a PDO of 1000 by the end of the season but at this point there's a significantly larger range in PDO around the league. The PDO ratings for the players you named:

Corey Perry - 964
Ryan Getzlaf - 961
Lubomir Visnovsky - 979
Jarome Iginla - 966
Henrik Zetterberg - 968
Chris Stewart - 973
Patrik Berglund - 985
David Krejci - 955
Eric Staal - 942
Tomas Kaberle - 988
Zach Parise - 987
Kyle Okposo - 970
Nikolai Kulemin - 1007
Alexander Ovechkin - 954

So apart from Kulemin, all of these players' PDO ratings are unsustainably low and should regress to the mean by the end of the season although Parise, Berglund and Kaberle are not going to benefit from that regression to the degree that some of the others on this list like Ovechkin and Staal will so those three likely need to improve their play to post totals in line with some of their numbers from prior years.

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11-28-2011, 07:26 PM
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How about goaltenders as well?

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