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Old
12-16-2011, 07:27 AM
  #251
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Luceni View Post
I`ve to agree.

What I wanted to say was that any kind of deal including one of Grags, Boyes or our third rounder I'd do in a heartbeat for nielsen or brassard.

For leopold they would probably have t add a bit.
I wouldn't touch Brassard's contract with a 10 foot pole given that he's playing like garbage right now.

I'd do Gragnani+3rd or 4th for Nielsen right now, though.

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12-16-2011, 10:30 AM
  #252
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Any interest in Turris since he is believed to be available (again)?

Personally, I cringe a little bit thinking about it.

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12-16-2011, 10:35 AM
  #253
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I would hope not.

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Old
12-16-2011, 10:46 AM
  #254
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Originally Posted by joshjull View Post
Huh?

05-06 --> 79gms 175 hits (13th in NHL)
06-07 --> 81gms 258 hits (2nd)
07-08 --> 78gms 311 hits (1st)
08-09 --> 80gms 285 hits (3rd)
09-10 --> 82gms 287 hits (2nd)
10-11 --> 82gms 300 hits (3rd)
11-12 --> 31gms 96 hits (5th)

He has 1712 hits in 513 games post lockout, an average of 3.3 per game. Roughly a 270 hit per season average. He is currently on pace for 250+hits. Thats pretty damn physical if you ask me. For a top 6 forward thats an amzing level of physicality and dwarfs anything our top 6 can do. hell it dwarfs any player on our team besides Kaleta

The amazing thing is he has only missed 10gms post lockout playing that physical.
Do you think of LA is a physical juggernaut? I don't. I think they're unafraid of taking the body, but they're far from what I would consider a physically imposing team. Then look at their hit totals compared to a team like Boston, who seems to hit everything that moves.

One of the reasons hits is the most irrelevant skater stat in hockey today is because of the subjective differences in the way they're credited from arena to arena. Look at the way the Leafs players' hits went through the roof last season (especially Kaberle's) compared to previous seasons--they likely got a new person to track them. LA's hits stats are notoriously inflated. I keep waiting for them to sign Robert Svehla so he can lead the league in hits like he did in Florida.

The day someone can show me a stat or study that definitively correlates hitting with winning is the day I start concerning myself with hit stats. Other than indicating who's hitting on a given team vis-a-vis his teammates, they're practically useless.


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Originally Posted by joshjull View Post
Brown played in 31gms prelockout as an 18 year old rookie in 03-04 getting 10mins a night. He had 1g 4a 5pts in those 31gms. Those games are the only thing that drags Brown's stats below Stafford's. Its misleading to include them.

Post lockout Brown without those 31gms: 145g in 512gms (.283 gpg) and 315pts in 512gms (.615 ppg)

Suddenly Brown's numbers look just like Stafford's: 99 G in 346 games (.286 goals/game); 211 pts in 346 games (.609 pts/game)
So, at best, they're equivalent offensive players, rather than Stafford being slightly more productive? And that ignores the fact that Stafford is a year younger and has almost 200 fewer games of NHL experience. I'm still not seeing how the difference between Brown and Stafford is anything approaching Tyler Ennis.



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Originally Posted by joshjull View Post
But lets further break things down. Lets take a look at the previous 4 years for these two and this year.

Brown

07-08 ---> 78gms 33g 27a 60pts (311 hits)
08-09 ---> 80gms 24g 29a 53pts (285 hits)
09-10 ---> 82gms 24g 32a 56pts (287 hits)
10-11 ---> 82gms 28g 29a 57pts (300 hits)

11-12 ---> 30gms 5g 10a 15pts (96 hits)


Stafford

07-08 ---> 64gms 16g 22a 38pts (62 hits)
08-09 ---> 79gms 20g 25a 45pts (80 hits)
09-10 ---> 71gms 14g 20a 34pts (59 hits)
10-11 ---> 62gms 31g 21a 52pts (53 hits)

11-12 ---> 29gms 5g 10a 15pts (32 hits)


Awfully hard to argue Stafford is the better offensive player unless you're going off one season. If anything Stafford is a mystery offensively. Who is he? The guy from 07-08 though 09-10? The guy from last season? Or something in between?
Let's remove the TOI disparity and do ES points/60 minutes:

Brown
11-12: 1.24
10-11: 1.91
09-10: 1.88
08-09: 1.73

Stafford

11-12: 1.86
10-11: 2.20
09-10: 1.53
08-09: 1.57

These numbers tell us Brown was slightly better at ES scoring in 08-09, and significantly better in 09-10. Stafford was significantly better than Brown in 10-11. And despite how supposedly awful Stafford has been this season, he's been far better at ES than Brown this year. So, over the last 1 1/2 seasons, Stafford has been the decidedly better ES producer. Personally, I think recent history is more relevant than what happened in 2007-08 or 2008-09. (And I refuse to be like other Sabres fans and pretend that a player's best season didn't happen simply because it makes my argument easier--i.e., Stafford or Miller.)

Quote:
Originally Posted by joshjull View Post
They may trade Brown for a package that includes Stafford but it may take adding more than you seem willing to admit.
I wasn't offering filler in addition to Stafford. You don't think a guy like Foligno has value? A young, character winger with letter-wearing intangibles and on pace for 25+ goals in his first season as an AHL'er. I think that's a pretty nice secondary piece, especially for a team with a bunch of stopgaps for wingers, in addition to Stafford.


Quote:
Originally Posted by joshjull View Post
Brown has proven to be a reliable top 6 winger offensively. He is has been good for 24-33 goals and 53-60pts the last 4 years. All while being a league leader in hits (top 3 all 4 years).

Stafford is a giant wildcard offensively. In 3 straight seasons from 07-08 to 09-10 he was a 16-20g 39-48pt winger. Then he exploded last year in 62gms 31g 21a 52pts (a 41g 69pt pace). A jump of roughly 20+g and 20+pts from his best totals or pace in either category. He is currently on pace for 14g 42pts. Which is pretty close to the numbers he put up from 07-08 to 09-10. Brown is also on pace for roughly the same season totals as Stafford. The difference though is Brown hasn't put numbers like that up in over 4 years. So its safe to say he is having an off year. Stafford could just be having a bad year as well. Or last year could be a fluke and he is really the player we saw the 3 season prior to the last one. Or maybe the answer lies somewhere in between. Its too soon to say. But until Stafford proves last year wasn't a fluke. I think its hard to argue he is the better player offensively just yet.

The bottom line

Brown is the more consistant and proven top 6 offensive winger of the two and is more durable. He also is far more physical and is the Kings captain. Add in the fact that he makes roughly 1mil a year less than Stafford and it would be awfully hard to pry him out of LA without a very strong package beyond Stafford. It may take Ennis. Then its a matter of whether or not its worth overpaying for him.
Then I don't make that deal. Ennis + Stafford for Brown is a non-starter in my book. And a rental like Stoll isn't close to evening out the deal, especially when we can get him for just money this offseason when he's UFA.

I'm not messing with the under-22 core for anything outside a huge upgrade, preferably at center. And going from Drew Stafford to Dustin Brown does not represent a huge upgrade.


Last edited by Zip15: 12-16-2011 at 10:56 AM.
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Old
12-16-2011, 11:57 AM
  #255
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Apparently Eklund reads HFboards......

The Canadiens and Sabres....

are also talking to the Kings...but about Jarret Stoll....

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Old
12-16-2011, 12:07 PM
  #256
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Josh, read the part of my post that begins with "edit." It explains what I meant. Brown finishes his checks, yes, more than almost anybody in the league (ignoring accusations of questionable scorekeeping), but he wouldn't bring the complete package of toughness that this team needs if its paying through the nose for a player with limited offensive tools.

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Old
12-16-2011, 12:36 PM
  #257
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Zip hits the nail on the head again. Great post!!

Personally I don't think Brown nor Stoll are the answer. I'd like to see us take a chance on a guy like Turris...which will cost us a prospect and pick or go all out for a proven top line center...which will likely never happen, or if it does, will occurr during the offseason.

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12-16-2011, 01:24 PM
  #258
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How about signing an RFA like O'Reilly. Maybe Colorado won't give him up in a trade, but maybe with their internal cap, Buffalo offers something that Colorado can't/isn't willing to match for him and they give up the picks (maybe a 1st and a 3rd).

I think other than that, if it doesn't work, or even if it did, trade Stafford to Edmonton for Sam Gagner. Maybe he pulls a Briere here and turns his career around. Trade Roy to Phoenix for Hanzal, or if they won't do it, for Turris and their 1st round pick. That kid needs a change of scenery unlike any other. The pick can be packaged with our own in order to move up in the draft and maybe select a guy like Galchenyuk. Maybe move Hecht and our 2nd at the deadline to the Islanders for Nielsen. Trade Miller in the off-season for some package of picks and prospects, maybe Tampa Bay for Brett Connolly and a 1st, or Columbus for some type of package.

The old core is not good enough to win. Trade them off for assets that can combine with our new young core, keep a couple guys of the old core (Vanek and Pominville), and others to become the veterans of the team (Erhoff, Boyes, I'm sorry no one likes him, but I do feel like Boyes gives an effort he's just not quite "right" for some reason). If you trade Miller, it creates room to sign another goalie to form a new tandem with Enroth (Josh Harding, Thomas Vokun, Brian Elliot, MARTY BIRON, etc.).

People are acting like there aren't options. There are options, but the team needs to make sure that they keep all options open and realize that the old core isn't going to do it. It starts with moving Roy and Stafford, and if the right deal comes, Miller as well.

It seems like too many deals and signings of centers, but it's what we need. Get three or four guys in here who can compete for top-6 playing time, the others can be put on the wing, or if they don't fit on the team, waive them, or put them in Rochester.

I'm just getting sick of people saying they're sick of the core, and then seeing deals that involve Stafford for Stoll. Why, if this team as it is currently constructed, is not going to win a championship, would you propose trades that are mere "facelift" trades? This team does not need a simple facelift. They need to restructure the depth and talent of their organization. The focus needs to be on younger, hungrier, more physical players, and centers. Not on older players who are mere stopgaps that will keep them out of the basement but also short of the top echelon in the league, as they've been since they lost Briere and Drury.

Imagine a depth chart of...

L1 Vanek-O'Reilly/Hanzal-Pominville
L2 Leino-Gagner-Kassian
L3 Ennis-Adam-Boyes
L4 Gerbe-Nielsen-Kaleta

Ex) Foligno-Turris-Tropp (and just think how bad Turris needs some time in the AHL
Ex) Ellis-Sudher-Armia
-Galchenyuk

I'm not saying all that could happen, but maybe if even two of them did (maybe O'Reilly and Gagner, or Hanzal and Nielsen), it makes the center depth a lot better in the long run, especially if they found a way to get a top center prospect like Galchenyuk as well, and who knows, the way they're playing they might not need to trade up to draft him if they keep it up.

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Old
12-16-2011, 01:38 PM
  #259
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Quote:
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Then I don't make that deal. Ennis + Stafford for Brown is a non-starter in my book. And a rental like Stoll isn't close to evening out the deal, especially when we can get him for just money this offseason when he's UFA.

I'm not messing with the under-22 core for anything outside a huge upgrade, preferably at center. And going from Drew Stafford to Dustin Brown does not represent a huge upgrade.
I don't agree with most of the post, but I agree with most of that part.

I see Brown as an upgrade over Stafford and the Sabres would be a better team with Brown as opposed to Stafford, IMO.

I wouldn't give up Stafford & Ennis for Brown.

I wouldn't do Staff+Ennis for Brown & Stoll.

I doubt I'd even do Stafford & Ennis for Brown & Loktionov.

If you look at what LA has in the pipeline after the Richards trade, it's not pretty outside of Toffoli.

If the Kings move Brown, I'd expect them want to start re-stocking the pipeline. And Brown isn't the guy that I want the Sabres moving young pieces to acquire.

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12-16-2011, 02:17 PM
  #260
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Any interest in Turris since he is believed to be available (again)?

Personally, I cringe a little bit thinking about it.
It depends on the asking price. If it was say, the Sabres 2nd rounder in the upcoming draft? I'd have to think long and hard about that.

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Old
12-16-2011, 02:28 PM
  #261
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It depends on the asking price. If it was say, the Sabres 2nd rounder in the upcoming draft? I'd have to think long and hard about that.
You'd have to think long and hard about it?

If that was the asking price (the equivalent of what you pay for a decent playoff rental....).... then you shouldn't have to think for more then a few seconds.

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12-16-2011, 02:36 PM
  #262
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jame View Post
You'd have to think long and hard about it?

If that was the asking price (the equivalent of what you pay for a decent playoff rental....).... then you shouldn't have to think for more then a few seconds.
Then what? Waive Boyes when he comes back on the books? We really can't move just a draft pick for his salary, can we?

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12-16-2011, 02:38 PM
  #263
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Then what? Waive Boyes when he comes back on the books? We really can't move just a draft pick for his salary, can we?
LTIR should cover it long enough to make a move...

and yes, I'd waive Boyes and let someone claim him for free.... essential Boyes+2nd for Turris

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12-16-2011, 02:40 PM
  #264
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jame View Post
You'd have to think long and hard about it?

If that was the asking price (the equivalent of what you pay for a decent playoff rental....).... then you shouldn't have to think for more then a few seconds.
Pretty much this, Turris has more potential than anyone we would select in the second round. It's a very good opportunity to buy low.

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12-16-2011, 02:46 PM
  #265
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I would think that PHX would want a hardworking mid-line player with a salary at or around what Turris is earning.

That guy for the Buffalo Sabres is Nathan Gerbe. And that's who I think Maloney would want from us for Turris (with some evening out, either way).

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12-16-2011, 02:50 PM
  #266
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Quote:
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I would think that PHX would want a hardworking mid-line player with a salary at or around what Turris is earning.

That guy for the Buffalo Sabres is Nathan Gerbe. And that's who I think Maloney would want from us for Turris (with some evening out, either way).
But... Corey Tropp is a hard working middle line player.... how bout him ?

i'd hate to give up Nate, his tenacity, and his contract...

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12-16-2011, 02:57 PM
  #267
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But... Corey Tropp is a hard working middle line player.... how bout him ?

i'd hate to give up Nate, his tenacity, and his contract...
I wish Tropp could get it done, but we know that it can't. I think the bolded is precisely the reason they'd want Nate, and Gerbe plays a game that Tippett likes. I'd hate giving up Gerbe, too, but Turris is undoubtedly a center, and we need more of those guys. We have the depth at LW (Vanek, Ennis, Leino, Adam, et al.) to withstand the loss of Gerbe if that's what it took.

I think the bigger issue would be whether they want to give up a guy with Nate's intangibles for Turris, who hasn't acquitted himself well in the past six months.

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12-16-2011, 02:59 PM
  #268
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You'd have to think long and hard about it?

If that was the asking price (the equivalent of what you pay for a decent playoff rental....).... then you shouldn't have to think for more then a few seconds.
Yeah I agree, I know it would create salary issues but a 2nd for Turris, which his upside is a great deal. Then you have to figure something out before everybody gets healthy.

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12-16-2011, 03:04 PM
  #269
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Roy for Turris+ ???

Trade one cancer for another?

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12-16-2011, 03:06 PM
  #270
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I wish Tropp could get it done, but we know that it can't. I think the bolded is precisely the reason they'd want Nate, and Gerbe plays a game that Tippett likes. I'd hate giving up Gerbe, too, but Turris is undoubtedly a center, and we need more of those guys. We have the depth at LW (Vanek, Ennis, Leino, Adam, et al.) to withstand the loss of Gerbe if that's what it took.

I think the bigger issue would be whether they want to give up a guy with Nate's intangibles for Turris, who hasn't acquitted himself well in the past six months.
it also sends a poor lockerroom message when you acquire a somewhat malcontent, for a guy who gives his all every shift (even if those shifts don't go so well )

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12-16-2011, 03:12 PM
  #271
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Roy for Turris+ ???

Trade one cancer for another?
Phx has to be throwing in a ton of sweetener into that deal.

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12-16-2011, 03:22 PM
  #272
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Roy for Turris+ ???

Trade one cancer for another?
Roy is now a cancer?? Holy ****ing ****. You guys are unreal sometimes.

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12-16-2011, 03:26 PM
  #273
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Roy is now a cancer?? Holy ****ing ****. You guys are unreal sometimes.
I definitely wouldn't trade Roy for Turris...
but Roy is a cancer

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12-16-2011, 03:37 PM
  #274
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Thought it would be worth mentioning that Ted Black said on WGR on Thursday morning that the Sabres would be open to sending yet more players to Rochester in order to free up cap space.

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12-16-2011, 03:40 PM
  #275
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I definitely wouldn't trade Roy for Turris...
but Roy is a cancer
I view a team cancer to be someone who disrupts the locker room chemistry. I didn't know some had the new dressing room wired. Freamon and McNulty would like to have a word with you...

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