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Justin Braun to Worcester 11/29

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Old
11-29-2011, 07:01 PM
  #26
hockeyball
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Originally Posted by WineShark View Post
TMac and Co aren't very happy with the play in the past couple games. There is no room this season for accepting poor execution. That means they should respond a little faster in getting guys playing or making a move to get the team's attention. That move can be in less PT (something they are using), they can take people off lines and elevate others (something they are doing), they can demote and promote (what they just did), or they can make a trade. There is an order of moves with this team to 1) get the players attention, 2) expect results or make changes of the people in the lockerroom. We aren't yet at the stage where I expect a trade will be made, but I doubt DW waits to the deadline to make it this season.
It's a very complicated issue. I think we have a variety of issues that are making a solution confusing:

1) Confidence - This is a team that expects to be inconsistent and so they are. It's a team that is used to slacking off and turning on the 'switch' when needed and having that work.

2) Individuals playing poorly - We have a couple of players that are playing extremely poorly in important roles. Boyle seems like the obvious one, but he really isn't the problem (he plays at such a high level that crappy for him is still better than most). Demers is a bigger issue (though I think he will recover) and Murray I think may be the biggest culprit that no one is talking about. He seems like he doesnt know what to do out there this year, always out of position, not playing to his strengths, and he's put 3 goals in off himself now I believe. When a core player like that is playing extremely poorly it drags down the whole team both mentally and practically. Another major culprit is Clowe who I think may be hurt.

3) Effort - This is the issue we like to blame it on, but in reality I think the poor effort games are stemming from the above issues. Poor individual play leading to losses is lowering team confidence and reducing morale. One guy all of the sudden doesn't trust his partner and starts trying to cover for him and now they both look terrible. It's systemic, but I also think its symptomatic.

4) Coaching - Our special teams performances are absolutely unacceptable for a team as stacked as ours. I think a new assistant coach needs to be brought in to address that issue.

So what do I propose? If key players are dragging the entire team down they should be given the opportunity to play through it. If they don't seem to be improving they may need to be replaced, the timing of which is really the tough part.

Guys on my 'watch' list right now are:

Mitchell
Murray
Demers
Clowe

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Old
11-29-2011, 07:08 PM
  #27
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Well you would have been wrong. Carle and Vlasic were both better than Ehrhoff in 07-08 while Blake and Vlasic were both better than Ehrhoff in his final season. I'd like to hear the argument that he was Vancouver's best defenseman either of his seasons there. Best point producer from the back end? Sure, he was gifted gobs of PP time and used in heavily sheltered situations at even-strength, almost always playing behind the Sedins who are the poster boys for line sheltering in the NHL, to ensure offensive production. Willie Mitchell was the Canucks' best defenseman in 09-10 and Dan Hamhuis was their best last season. Alex Edler was also better than Ehrhoff both years and I'd probably even put Bieksa ahead of Ehrhoff last season although it's clear he was heavily dependent on Hamhuis.
If you go beyond ES to PP, Ehrhoff is a premiere PP producer. It isn't just goals. He took the Nucks to top of the league on PP; they were good and got better. Ehrhoff is a good, not great, one on one defender. And, he can take certain high end matchups. Beyond that, barely a #4 defensively. Mix the ES stats with special teams and Ehrhoff's rating goes up.

In Ehrhoff's last year with the Sharks, he was well beyond Vlasic. Especially with special teams added in. Finally, Ehrhoff's offense in the playoffs is very good, not great, for a dman. Playoffs is where many dmen struggle.

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11-29-2011, 07:13 PM
  #28
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Originally Posted by Les Wynan View Post
Well you would have been wrong. Carle and Vlasic were both better than Ehrhoff in 07-08 while Blake and Vlasic were both better than Ehrhoff in his final season. I'd like to hear the argument that he was Vancouver's best defenseman either of his seasons there. Best point producer from the back end? Sure, he was gifted gobs of PP time and used in heavily sheltered situations at even-strength, almost always playing behind the Sedins who are the poster boys for line sheltering in the NHL, to ensure offensive production. Willie Mitchell was the Canucks' best defenseman in 09-10 and Dan Hamhuis was their best last season. Alex Edler was also better than Ehrhoff both years and I'd probably even put Bieksa ahead of Ehrhoff last season although it's clear he was heavily dependent on Hamhuis.
Ive had this argument ad-nauseum and I am not getting into it again. Go back and look at my arguments prior to the Heatley trade if you like.

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11-29-2011, 07:17 PM
  #29
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Originally Posted by hockeyball View Post
It's a very complicated issue. I think we have a variety of issues that are making a solution confusing:

1) Confidence - This is a team that expects to be inconsistent and so they are. It's a team that is used to slacking off and turning on the 'switch' when needed and having that work.

2) Individuals playing poorly - We have a couple of players that are playing extremely poorly in important roles. Boyle seems like the obvious one, but he really isn't the problem (he plays at such a high level that crappy for him is still better than most). Demers is a bigger issue (though I think he will recover) and Murray I think may be the biggest culprit that no one is talking about. He seems like he doesnt know what to do out there this year, always out of position, not playing to his strengths, and he's put 3 goals in off himself now I believe. When a core player like that is playing extremely poorly it drags down the whole team both mentally and practically. Another major culprit is Clowe who I think may be hurt.

3) Effort - This is the issue we like to blame it on, but in reality I think the poor effort games are stemming from the above issues. Poor individual play leading to losses is lowering team confidence and reducing morale. One guy all of the sudden doesn't trust his partner and starts trying to cover for him and now they both look terrible. It's systemic, but I also think its symptomatic.

4) Coaching - Our special teams performances are absolutely unacceptable for a team as stacked as ours. I think a new assistant coach needs to be brought in to address that issue.

So what do I propose? If key players are dragging the entire team down they should be given the opportunity to play through it. If they don't seem to be improving they may need to be replaced, the timing of which is really the tough part.

Guys on my 'watch' list right now are:

Mitchell
Murray
Demers
Clowe
There are some so-called no-effort games where it isn't the effort so much as being outcoached. Some coaches are throwing new wrinkles at TM and TM is a bit slow to respond. Players look awful when trying to pound a square peg into a round hole. It looks a lot like lack of effort. I don't think that was the case in the LA game.

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11-29-2011, 07:19 PM
  #30
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Originally Posted by hockeyball View Post
It's a very complicated issue. I think we have a variety of issues that are making a solution confusing:

1) Confidence - This is a team that expects to be inconsistent and so they are. It's a team that is used to slacking off and turning on the 'switch' when needed and having that work.

2) Individuals playing poorly - We have a couple of players that are playing extremely poorly in important roles. Boyle seems like the obvious one, but he really isn't the problem (he plays at such a high level that crappy for him is still better than most). Demers is a bigger issue (though I think he will recover) and Murray I think may be the biggest culprit that no one is talking about. He seems like he doesnt know what to do out there this year, always out of position, not playing to his strengths, and he's put 3 goals in off himself now I believe. When a core player like that is playing extremely poorly it drags down the whole team both mentally and practically. Another major culprit is Clowe who I think may be hurt.

3) Effort - This is the issue we like to blame it on, but in reality I think the poor effort games are stemming from the above issues. Poor individual play leading to losses is lowering team confidence and reducing morale. One guy all of the sudden doesn't trust his partner and starts trying to cover for him and now they both look terrible. It's systemic, but I also think its symptomatic.

4) Coaching - Our special teams performances are absolutely unacceptable for a team as stacked as ours. I think a new assistant coach needs to be brought in to address that issue.

So what do I propose? If key players are dragging the entire team down they should be given the opportunity to play through it. If they don't seem to be improving they may need to be replaced, the timing of which is really the tough part.

Guys on my 'watch' list right now are:

Mitchell
Murray
Demers
Clowe
This is OT for the Braun thread but whatever...

I think most of Murray's problem this season is Boyle, they have always fed off of each other's strenghts and Boyle is second guessing himself constantly, which is causing Murray to do the same (or, I guess it could be the other way around).

Wouldn't mind McLellan trying Murray/Demers and Boyle/Vandy-White to see if maybe they work better together.

Regarding the coaching - I think the struggling players are hindering the PP more than the coaching. And they knew the PK was sucking so they changed it, and it's been pretty good since.

Of your group "on watch", the only person I think that they might move would be Mitchell. and that's only if he's being replaced with a clear upgrade. Clowe & Murray, even though they're not so good right now, bring way too much to the team and I'd really just hate to see Demers moved.

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Old
11-29-2011, 07:29 PM
  #31
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I don't like the idea of having 8 d-men and scuffling 4 in and out every other game. The only one out of those 4 who have played well when he's come in is Vandermeer.
Doug Wilson's comments all throughout the off-season beg to differ. He constantly noted in interviews that the reason the Bruins and the Canucks were able to get to the SCF was because of their depth on D. Injuries will happen in the playoffs, and both those teams were lucky enough to have a #7/#8 with NHL experience that could step in. Doug Wilson got Vandermeer and White in the off-season, while also stating that Braun will play a big role on their NHL blue-line, for that very reason.

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I don't want Demers traded, either. But with the way the team is being run at the moment, it doesn't make very much sense to play a guy and send him down the very next night when ,aside from the errant pass to Moreau, he's played very well. Just seems fishy.
And I think we're looking into this way too much. Braun started out playing extremely well, but his last few games he's either been average or below average. Demers on the other-hand started out poorly but his last few games, he's played very well. This seems like nothing more than to give both of them more play-time. Braun had his chance last game to prove why he should be in the line-up instead of Demers, and he didn't do so hot.

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11-29-2011, 07:33 PM
  #32
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Wouldn't mind McLellan trying Murray/Demers and Boyle/Vandy-White to see if maybe they work better together.
That wouldn't be a bad idea, but Murray did pretty poorly when paired with anyone but Boyle last season. It was like he didn't trust the offensive abilities of Demers and Braun and started to do the break-out passes and jump into the play more.

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11-29-2011, 07:40 PM
  #33
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here's a link: http://sharks.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=603877

I wonder if Demers will be a scratch thursday or if we might see Vandy and White play together. I don't think we've seen that yet so I'd like to see Mclellan test that.

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11-29-2011, 07:47 PM
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here's a link: http://sharks.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=603877

I wonder if Demers will be a scratch thursday or if we might see Vandy and White play together. I don't think we've seen that yet so I'd like to see Mclellan test that.

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11-29-2011, 08:39 PM
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If you go beyond ES to PP, Ehrhoff is a premiere PP producer. It isn't just goals. He took the Nucks to top of the league on PP; they were good and got better. Ehrhoff is a good, not great, one on one defender. And, he can take certain high end matchups. Beyond that, barely a #4 defensively. Mix the ES stats with special teams and Ehrhoff's rating goes up.

In Ehrhoff's last year with the Sharks, he was well beyond Vlasic. Especially with special teams added in. Finally, Ehrhoff's offense in the playoffs is very good, not great, for a dman. Playoffs is where many dmen struggle.
I don't deny that Ehrhoff is elite in terms of PP production but how much of that is his skill and how much of it is having the good fortune of playing on the two best power play units in the NHL over the past four seasons? In terms of shot generation per minute, the Canucks' power play is actually markedly better so far this season than it ever was with Ehrhoff. And, really, how difficult is it to find a guy like Marc-Andre Bergeron or Joe Corvo or Anton Babchuk who are all fairly cheap assets who have excelled on the PP to nearly the degree Ehrhoff has despite playing on far worse units.

Your assessment of Ehrhoff at ES is absolutely correct. Barely a #4, probably not even that. There's no way Ehrhoff provided the same value to the team that Vlasic did in 08-09. Even when normalizing for ice time (which hurts Vlasic since he played more), their point production at even-strength was identical despite the fact that Vlasic was consistently facing top competition and starting the majority of his shifts in his own zone while Ehrhoff was very much put in positions to succeed. And even on the PP, the Sharks generated basically the same number of shots per minute with Vlasic on the ice as Ehrhoff with Ehrhoff outproducing Vlasic with the man advantage that year (although not even by that much...6.87 P/60 to 5.32 P/60) thanks to a higher on-ice shooting percentage which was the product of playing with Patty, Joe and Seto instead of Clowe, Pavs and Michalek. Then there's the PK where Vlasic averaged almost a minute more per game than Ehrhoff.

Ehrhoff's a good hockey player and trading him was a terrible move considering the return the Sharks received but I'd be hard-pressed to list him as even one of the top three defensemen on the Sharks any year he was here or as one of the top two defensemen on the Canucks during the seasons he spent in Vancouver.

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11-29-2011, 09:28 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Squeeven View Post
here's a link: http://sharks.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=603877

I wonder if Demers will be a scratch thursday or if we might see Vandy and White play together. I don't think we've seen that yet so I'd like to see Mclellan test that.
I dunno if Vandy should be covering for White's gaffes or vice versa. I'm afraid they're gonna get undressed.

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11-29-2011, 09:53 PM
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http://www.csnbayarea.com/blog/shark...18&feedID=5878

Kurz: Braun demotion = vote of confidence for Demers

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11-29-2011, 10:09 PM
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http://www.csnbayarea.com/blog/shark...18&feedID=5878

Kurz: Braun demotion = vote of confidence for Demers
Isn't he supposed to be a Sharks' insider?

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11-29-2011, 10:35 PM
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Originally Posted by Squeeven View Post
here's a link: http://sharks.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=603877

I wonder if Demers will be a scratch thursday or if we might see Vandy and White play together. I don't think we've seen that yet so I'd like to see Mclellan test that.
They can both stand there and not check a single forward.

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11-29-2011, 10:49 PM
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I don't deny that Ehrhoff is elite in terms of PP production but how much of that is his skill and how much of it is having the good fortune of playing on the two best power play units in the NHL over the past four seasons? In terms of shot generation per minute, the Canucks' power play is actually markedly better so far this season than it ever was with Ehrhoff. And, really, how difficult is it to find a guy like Marc-Andre Bergeron or Joe Corvo or Anton Babchuk who are all fairly cheap assets who have excelled on the PP to nearly the degree Ehrhoff has despite playing on far worse units.

Your assessment of Ehrhoff at ES is absolutely correct. Barely a #4, probably not even that. There's no way Ehrhoff provided the same value to the team that Vlasic did in 08-09. Even when normalizing for ice time (which hurts Vlasic since he played more), their point production at even-strength was identical despite the fact that Vlasic was consistently facing top competition and starting the majority of his shifts in his own zone while Ehrhoff was very much put in positions to succeed. And even on the PP, the Sharks generated basically the same number of shots per minute with Vlasic on the ice as Ehrhoff with Ehrhoff outproducing Vlasic with the man advantage that year (although not even by that much...6.87 P/60 to 5.32 P/60) thanks to a higher on-ice shooting percentage which was the product of playing with Patty, Joe and Seto instead of Clowe, Pavs and Michalek. Then there's the PK where Vlasic averaged almost a minute more per game than Ehrhoff.

Ehrhoff's a good hockey player and trading him was a terrible move considering the return the Sharks received but I'd be hard-pressed to list him as even one of the top three defensemen on the Sharks any year he was here or as one of the top two defensemen on the Canucks during the seasons he spent in Vancouver.
Don't bother with the shots argument. There is an issue of quality and I won't buy your pure shot argument without some major qualifiers. It fails too often.

Ehrhoff was backing the lower lines in his last year with the Sharks except when they fell behind and opened up the game. Not good for a lot of stats including +/-. That is not a position to succeed. Add that they switched him from left d to right d. And Vlasic/Blake failed miserably against RPG in losing to Anaheim. Ehrhoff/Murray had to take over their assignment.

On the Nucks, their PP went from top 5 to the very top. And, Edler was a noticeable fall back initially until well into Ehrhoff's tenure. Same for Salo. Initially Ehrhoff was backing Kesler and not the Sedin's (Salo had his spot) and was putting up their best goal generation numbers. He is far beyond Bergeron; he is barely short of Boyle offensively. And it has been shown repeatedly.

The other key for quite a while for Ehrhoff was his first assist generation which was near or at top of the league for dmen.

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11-30-2011, 01:52 AM
  #41
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Good sitting on the bench didn't appear to help him.

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11-30-2011, 01:57 AM
  #42
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There are some so-called no-effort games where it isn't the effort so much as being outcoached. Some coaches are throwing new wrinkles at TM and TM is a bit slow to respond. Players look awful when trying to pound a square peg into a round hole. It looks a lot like lack of effort. I don't think that was the case in the LA game.
Oh sure all of a sudden he figured out how to coach in the third. And the lack of execution on all those passes in the first and second, clearly that was the coaching staff.

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11-30-2011, 02:03 AM
  #43
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Don't bother with the shots argument. There is an issue of quality and I won't buy your pure shot argument without some major qualifiers. It fails too often.

Ehrhoff was backing the lower lines in his last year with the Sharks except when they fell behind and opened up the game. Not good for a lot of stats including +/-. That is not a position to succeed. Add that they switched him from left d to right d. And Vlasic/Blake failed miserably against RPG in losing to Anaheim. Ehrhoff/Murray had to take over their assignment.

On the Nucks, their PP went from top 5 to the very top. And, Edler was a noticeable fall back initially until well into Ehrhoff's tenure. Same for Salo. Initially Ehrhoff was backing Kesler and not the Sedin's (Salo had his spot) and was putting up their best goal generation numbers. He is far beyond Bergeron; he is barely short of Boyle offensively. And it has been shown repeatedly.

The other key for quite a while for Ehrhoff was his first assist generation which was near or at top of the league for dmen.
Yeah and Ehrhoff failed miserably all throughout the regular season against weaker competition. He was horrible, but sure you can point to those six games all you want....

Oh and have you been watching him on the Sabres... a pillar of good defense.

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11-30-2011, 02:20 AM
  #44
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Oh sure all of a sudden he figured out how to coach in the third. And the lack of execution on all those passes in the first and second, clearly that was the coaching staff.
I said that the LA game had nothing to do with coaching. Reading comprehension? There were a couple of games where the opposition was doubling the strong side point where it was very evident that the Sharks were not re-directed to work different exit plans. The adjustment was made a couple of games back where they stopped trying to consistently exit strong side.

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Yeah and Ehrhoff failed miserably all throughout the regular season against weaker competition. He was horrible, but sure you can point to those six games all you want....

Oh and have you been watching him on the Sabres... a pillar of good defense.
Weaker competition and a weaker supporting cast. You don't even address the issue of the side switch and the forwards behind whom he was playing. Note how Demers and Braun are hardly putting up points as they now have the same kind of assignment. He is an asset for his offense and only if his offense outweighs his defensive faults. In some ways, similar to using Boyle as a full #1. If you had Boyle only backing the 3rd and 4th lines, his offense would suffer as well. Realistically in watching Ehrhoff closely for years, his defense is very good one on one, but falters when he is playing any type of zone or switching. When he was told to cover Selanne, successful. As soon as he had to work within a system, not so good. For the most part, Ehrhoff was used to cover weak side for Vancouver in the defensive zone.

Ehrhoff is not doing well defensively in Buffalo but he is still piling up points on the second (not the first) unit of the PP.

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11-30-2011, 02:33 AM
  #45
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Ok I miss understood you about the LA game

As for Demers point production he isn't that far off from last year. Project his numbers to 75 games and he would have 20 - 21 points.

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11-30-2011, 02:55 AM
  #46
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Don't bother with the shots argument. There is an issue of quality and I won't buy your pure shot argument without some major qualifiers. It fails too often.

Ehrhoff was backing the lower lines in his last year with the Sharks except when they fell behind and opened up the game. Not good for a lot of stats including +/-. That is not a position to succeed. Add that they switched him from left d to right d. And Vlasic/Blake failed miserably against RPG in losing to Anaheim. Ehrhoff/Murray had to take over their assignment.

On the Nucks, their PP went from top 5 to the very top. And, Edler was a noticeable fall back initially until well into Ehrhoff's tenure. Same for Salo. Initially Ehrhoff was backing Kesler and not the Sedin's (Salo had his spot) and was putting up their best goal generation numbers. He is far beyond Bergeron; he is barely short of Boyle offensively. And it has been shown repeatedly.

The other key for quite a while for Ehrhoff was his first assist generation which was near or at top of the league for dmen.
It's been shown that shot generation on the PP is a better predictor of future PP success than PP%. But, like I said, too small of a sample size so far this season to draw any conclusions about Vancouver's PP, although they are also scoring more goals per minute than last season as well.

The flipside of playing behind the lower lines is of course that he was almost exclusively facing opposing lower lines. That's terrific for +/-. He also routinely began a higher percentage of his shifts in the offensive zone than any other Sharks defenseman. That's the very definition of a position to succeed and considering he was never really the Sharks' best offensive defenseman it's a fairly strong indictment of his defensive ability at even strength by the coaching staff.

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Note how Demers and Braun are hardly putting up points as they now have the same kind of assignment.
This is false. Granted, we only have one full season to work with for Demers but he averaged 0.9 P/60 at even-strength last season, compared to the 0.6 P/60 Ehrhoff averaged his final season with the Sharks. That's a 50% increase in scoring when normalizing for ice time and that's despite the fact that Demers' was used in significantly more difficult situations last season than Ehrhoff was in 08-09 since he began the majority of his shifts in the defensive zone (opposite of Ehrhoff) and faced statistically tougher competition than Ehrhoff even though they were both technically second pairing.

Again, I thought the Ehrhoff trade was dumb because I firmly believe they could have received a better return for him. But one-dimensional power play specialists just aren't worth $3.5mil/year. Even-strength Ehrhoff is an incredibly replaceable commodity.

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11-30-2011, 03:33 AM
  #47
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Originally Posted by Les Wynan View Post
It's been shown that shot The flipside of playing behind the lower lines is of course that he was almost exclusively facing opposing lower lines. That's terrific for +/-. He also routinely began a higher percentage of his shifts in the offensive zone than any other Sharks defenseman. That's the very definition of a position to succeed and considering he was never really the Sharks' best offensive defenseman it's a fairly strong indictment of his defensive ability at even strength by the coaching staff.
There were clearly issues with the coaching staff with Ehrhoff so I won't bother.

The problem with the lower line flip side argument is that the Sharks lower lines have been significantly on the low side of the league since the acquisition of JT. They had a brief respite after getting Wellwood last year.

I would take Ehrhoff over Campbell, Wiz, Bergeron, Kaberle, Corvo and a few others. He isn't that replaceable as there have been teams desperately looking to Bergeron late into the season. I would rather have Ehrhoff than Demers for the Sharks because of the issue of offense from the left side if cap and history were not an issue.

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