Pretty standard question but I've been thinking about it lately. Before I go on, there's usually reason to me starting threads. I don't make threads often and when I do it's usually something I thought out.
In this case, I was thinking about our contracts, our prospects and our future. When I joined HF I think the thing montreal seemed to have was this endless depth of prospects. I mean, we may not have had the best prospects but in the pipeline, the Prices, Latendresse, D'agostini, Kostitsyn, etc etc all of which are decent to great players right now. It occured to me (perhaps it resonated is a better word) that although an obvious statement, our prospect depth ain't what it used to be. That's not usually cause for alarm, we have guys under contract, some guys graduated and so on and so forth.
Yet, for some reason, I look at the contracts and I look at the prospect depth and it does alarm me. I feel like, our core is assembled by veterans, not a young core. That our prospect depth isn't top 5 nor 10 like it used to be. I wonder, when these guys contracts are up, who's gonna replace them? Sure, we have leblanc, avtsin and a few other non blue chippers along the way(perhaps gallagher is an exception) but it really dawned on me what I consider the importance of this year.
I'm not a 'we should tank' guy, and I'm not about to suggest that, so keep your "cheer for another team" comment on hold.
Looking at the contract list we have the following UFAs:
Andrei Kostitsyn
Travis Moen
Josh Gorges
Mathieu Darche
Hal Gill
Jaroslav Spacek
Chris Campoli
Now, maybe I play too much NHL 12 or maybe I admire the work of Holmgren, a guy who is known to be quite the master at retooling. The guys I listed, for the majority, will likely not be coming back. There are exceptions in Gorges and MAYBE AK and Moen. So you got and sit and wonder, should we flip the extras for the benefit of the team in the future? We saw what guys like Rivet could bring and while I don't expect that single return from any of these guys(except josh, which isn't really the one I'd trade) I find it almost necessary to explore the possibility of a retool or sell with the pieces we have.
I mean, barring some magical run, we're likely a .500 team and with the exception of st denis we have the following NHL capable d-man:
I know depth is nice and everything, but let's be honest here, this isn't needed and even if it were, it doesn't justify the opportunity cost IMO.
Looking at the contracts, our core is UFA in 2 years. We have no real legit top 6 forward prospects, top 4 d-man prospect or anything really to replace them. The result? We'll do another overpayment in the UFA market and end up crippling our team with more NTC and vets on the decline.
So, reiterating my point, while I'm not suggesting anything, does anyone get the feeling this is an important year for our future considering the potential opportunity cost? I know someone will say 'every year is important' but really, contract wise, youth movement and every possible relevant criteria taken into consideration, isn't having that extra Lars eller, josh gorges, or 1-2nd round pick(read in 0-3 years) perhaps a huge factor in how we'd be competitive 2 years(not including this one) down the road? Remember, 2 years from now, Max, DD, Eller, Price, Subban all hit their prime or close to it. Having that young depth and restocked prospect cupboard would go a long way in building what I'd feel is a young, talented star power core going forward.
I feel letting these guys go without a return, like we did with souray and others will just be poor asset management and put is back years. Again, going back to souray year, we traded rivet, but we still attempted the playoff push and I believe we finished close, so this isn't a 'tank now' thread, more of a, plan for the future thread.
This is a response to your no real legit top 4 top 6 prospects. We have gallagher and beaulieu who impressed a lot at camp and can become top players. Propects take time to develop. We still have kristo who has potential and deitz can be a good prospect too.
We have a pile of good prospect, just most of them are 19 or still in college. Next year I think you'll see a huge boost in terms of prospects at the pro level with LeBlanc(already there) Avtsin(already there) and additions like Kristo Pateryn Gallagher Bournival Ellis Tinordi and Beaulieu.
I agree this year is a pivotal year for a lot of veterans, Markov coming back from two devastating injuries, UFA's AK, Spacek, Gill, Campoli plus RFA's like Price and Subban(no real fear of them leaving but they need to be signed long term if possible). For Emelin this is a big year, coming over, making a name for himself and hopefully we can sign him for 2-3 more years.
Mediocre, besides Beaulieu, Subban, Patches, Eller (possibly), Leblanc(possibly), Tinordi (possibly). We're low on stock, and that young superstar centre that we have coveted for years continues to elude us. Our prospect pool thoroughly reflects our pool rankings by many sites (bottom 10 in the league). Its that pedigree of a star or gamebreaker that we really need.
This is a response to your no real legit top 4 top 6 prospects. We have gallagher and beaulieu who impressed a lot at camp and can become top players. Propects take time to develop. We still have kristo who has potential and deitz can be a good prospect too.
Well they have potential, and I like Timmins' record but I think we can't EXPECT every player who has potential to work out for us. Having additional young talent on the way is never a bad thing, i'm sure you'd agree.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carey Price
We have a pile of good prospect, just most of them are 19 or still in college. Next year I think you'll see a huge boost in terms of prospects at the pro level with LeBlanc(already there) Avtsin(already there) and additions like Kristo Pateryn Gallagher Bournival Ellis Tinordi and Beaulieu.
I agree this year is a pivotal year for a lot of veterans, Markov coming back from two devastating injuries, UFA's AK, Spacek, Gill, Campoli plus RFA's like Price and Subban(no real fear of them leaving but they need to be signed long term if possible). For Emelin this is a big year, coming over, making a name for himself and hopefully we can sign him for 2-3 more years.
I don't think we do have that great a prospect pool. Well, I mean, they aren't bad, but average is a better word. I do feel we're lacking some type of prospects and irrelevant to what happens this year, i'm sure it will be corrected over time.
Well that's the thing, keep all those guys and emelin is what, 9th on the list? Let the guy play and get picks in return too.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris G
Mediocre, besides Beaulieu, Subban, Patches, Eller (possibly), Leblanc. We're low on stock, and that young superstar centre that we have coveted for years continues to elude us. Our prospect pool thoroughly reflects our pool rankings by many sites (bottom 10 in the league)
That's my perception as well, I feel with the graduates we're real low on stock IMO. I remember having hamilton stacked and a whole boatload of guys on the way, now we're low in hamilton and we got some guys coming, but nothing to say we're stocked.
My feeling is the Habs are priming for a run at the Elite in 2-3 years and they need a true star leader for that team.This year's draft and the next have those types of players and the Habs need that leader who can score the important goal at the right times or set them up.Teams with the confidence in a particular player that excels in those moments are key to Stanley Cup winning teams.
My feeling is the Habs are priming for a run at the Elite in 2-3 years and they need a true star leader for that team.This year's draft and the next have those types of players and the Habs need that leader who can score the important goal at the right times or set them up.Teams with the confidence in a particular player that excels in those moments are key to Stanley Cup winning teams.
This is also a factor in my starting of the thread. This draft is said to be a good one, so take advantage no?
This is also a factor in my starting of the thread. This draft is said to be a good one, so take advantage no?
Well it depends on timmins too. If he tells gauthier this year is a great draft try and get as many picks as possible or even during draft time to get extra picks. I say at trade deadline if we are still fighting for a playoff spot I say we should be sellers. Spacek, Campoli, Moen, Gill, Kostitsyn, maybe even Gomez if we can trade them all and get draft picks and maybe some prospects. If we do this 2 out comes will play out. We finish out of the playoffs and get a lower pick, plus more picks and propects OR we make the playoffs by luck and we take it from there, we may not go to the finals but who knows it is another risk.
One has to assume that management has identified Price, Subban, and Pacioretty as core players. Then you can conclude that the vets are stop gaps and likely none of them will be retained past their current contract.
A risk is that guys conform to a pattern of mediocretty and that stunts development. The ideal situation is a successful team environmement and a culture of winning. Detroit, for example, when bringing up Zetterberg and Datsyuk. But things can't work out like that for everyone. And management, despite their robotic consciencious objector program, is not dealing with known commodities...
So who knows, in the grand scheme its all important. You just have to hope for consistency and health.
The important time was a few years ago when Gainey blew his wad on a bunch of small forwards and during those years previous, let his UFA's walk instead of dealing them for picks.
This year all we can hope for is somehow, some way they can move some of these anchors of contracts they have on this team.
Montreal is not a team that is willing to make drastic changes to players, coaches and style like Philly has. Even Gainey's spending spree just brought in more of what Montreal already had except slightly younger.
Well it depends on timmins too. If he tells gauthier this year is a great draft try and get as many picks as possible or even during draft time to get extra picks. I say at trade deadline if we are still fighting for a playoff spot I say we should be sellers. Spacek, Campoli, Moen, Gill, Kostitsyn, maybe even Gomez if we can trade them all and get draft picks and maybe some prospects. If we do this 2 out comes will play out. We finish out of the playoffs and get a lower pick, plus more picks and propects OR we make the playoffs by luck and we take it from there, we may not go to the finals but who knows it is another risk.
I full trust in Timmins. I feel if we get him the picks, and decent ones, we'll be happy. Kind of how I felt prior to the anahiem game, we're .500 team right now, thinking for the future is a must. If we're below the reasonable mark for playoffs come deadline, I hope they sell.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Humpty Dumpty
One has to assume that management has identified Price, Subban, and Pacioretty as core players. Then you can conclude that the vets are stop gaps and likely none of them will be retained past their current contract.
A risk is that guys conform to a pattern of mediocretty and that stunts development. The ideal situation is a successful team environmement and a culture of winning. Detroit, for example, when bringing up Zetterberg and Datsyuk. But things can't work out like that for everyone. And management, despite their robotic consciencious objector program, is not dealing with known commodities...
So who knows, in the grand scheme its all important. You just have to hope for consistency and health.
I don't disagree with and never suggested losing. In my OP I never said trade the vet core and tank, all I said was the guys we won't keep and can replace, let's trade them for something that will help us down the road.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pine
If we pickup Yakupov or Grigorenko, you can mark down this year as turning point.
LOL, maybe but I wasn't implying that.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kirk Muller
The important time was a few years ago when Gainey blew his wad on a bunch of small forwards and during those years previous, let his UFA's walk instead of dealing them for picks.
This year all we can hope for is somehow, some way they can move some of these anchors of contracts they have on this team.
Montreal is not a team that is willing to make drastic changes to players, coaches and style like Philly has. Even Gainey's spending spree just brought in more of what Montreal already had except slightly younger.
I consider this year much more important than then. Reality is, if we let those guys go, we had no one to replace them and we still don't. The difference is we have 2 more years to compete for the playoffs with this core and we'd sell the spare parts. In essence, we keep same make up, we give 2 years for players to develop and we become pretty much same team we are now, and considering we won't re-sign a lot of those guys, I'd argue we'd lose them anyway, so what, 4 months earlier? The draft is good, the year isn't going well and the time is now, to flip what we can get for our UFAs and retool.
I didn't attempt to make lines, just placed everyone. This is how we'd be after selling, seems pretty much what we are now, except we get a chance to build for the future. In the koivu, kovalev and so on era they were all UFAs, trading them we'd have an AHL team leftover. I'm not saying don't trade cammalleri, gionta or whoever if you can get a fair deal, all I'm saying is it's different circumstances, along with a MUCH better draft this year.
Does tonight(despite the better effort) reinforce the fact that if this team is a bubble team now, with the core and leaders gone in two years we may need to prepare if we want a smooth transition with the next core going forward? It's not meant to be reactionary, but unless we want a dark period I think there's reason for concern.
I consider this year much more important than then. Reality is, if we let those guys go, we had no one to replace them and we still don't. The difference is we have 2 more years to compete for the playoffs with this core and we'd sell the spare parts. In essence, we keep same make up, we give 2 years for players to develop and we become pretty much same team we are now, and considering we won't re-sign a lot of those guys, I'd argue we'd lose them anyway, so what, 4 months earlier? The draft is good, the year isn't going well and the time is now, to flip what we can get for our UFAs and retool.
I didn't attempt to make lines, just placed everyone. This is how we'd be after selling, seems pretty much what we are now, except we get a chance to build for the future. In the koivu, kovalev and so on era they were all UFAs, trading them we'd have an AHL team leftover. I'm not saying don't trade cammalleri, gionta or whoever if you can get a fair deal, all I'm saying is it's different circumstances, along with a MUCH better draft this year.
To me when describe that, it is just Montreal band aiding things like they have done for many many years now. Its stay competitive enough, keep the fans hungry just enough so there wont be a riot and just pray to God they find a Superstar somewhere in the draft.
Basically Montreal is just where they were under during the previous era. A bubble team. No point in spending the money Montreal did to remake their previous team that failed but only younger.
I personally would have minded less if they spent the money and at least went in a different direction instead of the same old small, speedy, soft routine the impose every year.
To me when describe that, it is just Montreal band aiding things like they have done for many many years now. Its stay competitive enough, keep the fans hungry just enough so there wont be a riot and just pray to God they find a Superstar somewhere in the draft.
Basically Montreal is just where they were under during the previous era. A bubble team. No point in spending the money Montreal did to remake their previous team that failed but only younger.
I personally would have minded less if they spent the money and at least went in a different direction instead of the same old small, speedy, soft routine the impose every year.
Well montreal has a style of game, the GM has a vision and stuck with it. I can't fault that whatsoever. I mean, if Gomez was at least the guy he was in NY we'd be a much better team. So the vision was there but as you said, they were band aids. We had no choice but to take whoever was available. In 2 years, I fear the same will occur. Rather than be backed into a corner, why not prepare and have less fill ins and band aids to look for?
Well montreal has a style of game, the GM has a vision and stuck with it. I can't fault that whatsoever. I mean, if Gomez was at least the guy he was in NY we'd be a much better team. So the vision was there but as you said, they were band aids. We had no choice but to take whoever was available. In 2 years, I fear the same will occur. Rather than be backed into a corner, why not prepare and have less fill ins and band aids to look for?
Thats not true tho. They had the chance to properly rebuild this team. Deal players for younger prospects who were close to stepping in. Remember this team let Souray, Streit, Kovalev, Koivu, etc walk for zilch.
BG tried to do a NYR style rebuild and its showing the flaws now. They dont have much in the minors really. Some decent prospects but worse than in previous years.
You talked about vision. Its a vision thats been a failure. Why prolong it?
Thats not true tho. They had the chance to properly rebuild this team. Deal players for younger prospects who were close to stepping in. Remember this team let Souray, Streit, Kovalev, Koivu, etc walk for zilch.
BG tried to do a NYR style rebuild and its showing the flaws now. They dont have much in the minors really. Some decent prospects but worse than in previous years.
You talked about vision. Its a vision thats been a failure. Why prolong it?
You're looking at different years though. Souray, Streit and the rest left at different years. The year we traded rivet(same year as souray). We ended up getting Pacioretty and Gorges...2-3 years later they were both playing on our team 3-4 years later Max had emerged and they are now both core pieces. In the case of Koivu, kovalev, komisarek and so on, you do have a point, we lost them for nothing but it was 100th year was it not? Giving up mid season wouldn't sit well and even so, the massive turnaround happened that very summer following their departure. There was no chance they'd have a fair shot at a transition period. That's pretty much why I bring up now, a safe 2 years before such a turnaround may occur, we'd have some internal pieces on good contracts.
As for BG vision, I always liked Bob, but I can easily admit while the Gomez trade wasn't supposed to end up this way it was a MASSIVE gamble for a guy who was no longer than top line player in New Jersey. Not a bad vision, but a terrible investment IMO.
unless we want a dark period I think there's reason for concern.
I wouldn't lose any sleep over it... They'll sign new UFA's and we'll be the same old bubble team. Just enough young talent will come in to give us our unique bubble balance.
Plus with parity -- the chances of sucking that badly are less than what they used to be.
I see 3 main scenarios that could happen this year.
1.We turn it around and get in the playoffs 6th to 8th place like in the last few years.
2.We sell a couple of vets for picks at the deadline before we get stuck in a Calgary situation where they are no good prospect or good young players (we actually have the option to have a pretty short rebuild considering the fact that we actually have a young core to build around)
3.This is the one that scares me considering the track record: We make stupid trades that look great a year or two and really stupid the next 10+ years to get in the playoffs and get bounced in the first round.
I actually don't mind option 1 that much.If we get in with the team we have great but the more we lose the more I get scared of a stupid panic move for the now that doesn't take the future into account.
Edit: Just saying I'm not saying we have to full on tank the year just get the most picks and procpects you can would really speed up the process.
I'm not sure we would be that much worse. We are already playing with a "rebuilding type team" defence. Say you trade Cammy I don't think it would kill anyone to try a guy like Palushaj in the top six worked for St-Louis and D'agostini.
Last edited by EllertoKostitsynGoal: 12-02-2011 at 01:02 AM.
You're looking at different years though. Souray, Streit and the rest left at different years. The year we traded rivet(same year as souray). We ended up getting Pacioretty and Gorges...2-3 years later they were both playing on our team 3-4 years later Max had emerged and they are now both core pieces. In the case of Koivu, kovalev, komisarek and so on, you do have a point, we lost them for nothing but it was 100th year was it not? Giving up mid season wouldn't sit well and even so, the massive turnaround happened that very summer following their departure. There was no chance they'd have a fair shot at a transition period. That's pretty much why I bring up now, a safe 2 years before such a turnaround may occur, we'd have some internal pieces on good contracts.
As for BG vision, I always liked Bob, but I can easily admit while the Gomez trade wasn't supposed to end up this way it was a MASSIVE gamble for a guy who was no longer than top line player in New Jersey. Not a bad vision, but a terrible investment IMO.
The point is about if players arent part of your future, you deal with them. Thats why i mention Souray and Streit as examples.
They didnt deal with those guys properly then, it doesnt give me much faith they will properly re-tool and deal these guys current close to UFA's now.
If a dark period happens, it might as well have been two years ago instead of entering into it now in even a tougher situation as these contracts are HORRID.
I see 3 main scenarios that could happen this year.
1.We turn it around and get in the playoffs 6th to 8th place like in the last few years.
2.We sell a couple of vets for picks at the deadline before we get stuck in a Calgary situation where they are no good prospect or good young players (we actually have the option to have a pretty short rebuild considering the fact that we actually have a young core to build around)
3.This is the one that scares me considering the track record: We make stupid trades that look great a year or two and really stupid the next 10+ years to get in the playoffs and get bounced in the first round.
I actually don't mind option 1 that much.If we get in with the team we have great but the more we lose the more I get scared of a stupid panic move for the now that doesn't take the future into account.
Edit: Just saying I'm not saying we have to full on tank the year just get the most picks and procpects you can would really speed up the process.
I'm not sure we would be that much worse. We are already playing with a "rebuilding type team" defence. Say you trade Cammy I don't think it would kill anyone to try a guy like Palushaj in the top six worked for St-Louis and D'agostini.
I never said full on tank, but for instance our D core should look like:
Subban
Markov
Gorges
Emelin
Weber
Diaz
and we have Gill, Spacek and Campoli leftover, guys we likely won't sign. I'm not saying trade them all, but i'm sure we can manage to trade 2 of the 3, because we likely aren't keeping them.
Campoli went for a second last year, he has been injured so his value likely drops to about a third. Gill and Spacek could fetch that too.
I think Gill could fetch more because of his playoff style. Good shot blocker, may get a little over a 3rd. Not saying a 2nd, but maybe a prospect. Even if we got 3 3rd rounders, they can be packaged or kept for more options.
If Gill doesn't return and Tinordi isn't ready next year, that is a type of defensive player Montreal absolutely needs. Weber and Diaz can't replace him, signing a UFA like him is a top priority. Markov being healthy is equally important.
On the forward side, Gomez and Gionta's time looks to me to be up here. For the last two years Martin has tried to fit both of them into the system and it doesn't seem to work. Pouliot is gone, Pacioretty is much better with DD and Cole and Moen, Eller or AK haven't really worked there either. Gionta only seems to work when he replaces Cammy on a line and then not as well. I like him but I don't see the fit here.
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I think there is going to be more teams trying to shed salary than trying to acquire every free agent available for top dollar over the next couple of years.
Imo, Columbus, Nashville, Calgary and New Jersey plus others will be looking to dump a decent player or two to get their house in order. Erat or Kulemin (if they become available) would be the type of players that would fit our system and payroll better than the pricier UFA's.
