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2011-2012 Rangers Prospects Thread (Juniors, College, International, Other) *Part 4*

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12-20-2011, 11:00 AM
  #501
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Originally Posted by JimmyStart View Post
Is this really true though or is it just that there's a wide range of "scrub no names" that dont make it but that the fallers are just more obvious and stick with you because you followed them from day 1?

Yogan fell because of injury which is way many are wondering if (also he plays a good game) he may be a "big name faller" that we get lucky with.
He also fell because teams questioned whether he could distribute the puck. He was looked at as a power forward type who didn't pass as much as teams would have liked. IMO, that screams, North-South power forward winger.

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12-20-2011, 11:09 AM
  #502
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Originally Posted by RangerEsq View Post
Let's get things straight. My numbers were not "made up and totally arbitrary". They were based on the averages of many years of drafts. I'd like to have that established before we move on because it is important for my main point.

It is true that any player's odds could be higher or lower once we get significantly into their post-draft career. However, we are not there with Fogarty.

Furthermore, Fogarty is NOT a second rounder. Had he been, you could've argued that he fell to that position, but deserves to be ranked higher. But in fact he's a third rounder and the argument made by the Rangers is that he's worth an average second rounder. So even if we accept Ranger arguments, then we are looking at an average second rounder, who have a 20% chance to become even a marginal NHLer. This is very important to remember: at best, he's a guy who's equivalent with players who have a 20% chance of cracking the NHL.

But others disagree that he's a second rounder. Not only did every team pass on him in the second round, but 9 teams passed on him in the third round.

Here are the stats for the players drafted in the third round:

1997: 3 of 27
1998: 9 of 28
1999: 8 of 30
2000: 3 of 31
2001: 5 of 34
2002: 5 of 33
2003: 6 of 33
2004: 5 of 33
2005: 3 of 31
2006: 1 of 31

That's 48 of 311 draftees, which comes down to 15.43%.

So in essence, the Rangers are arguing that Fogarty is not a 15% player, he's a 20% player. Big freakin' difference!

Note that a large majority of these 15-20% don't go on to have real NHL careers. Most of those who cross the 200 game mark play under 250 games.

Keep in mind that 200 games is nothing. It's less than 2.5 seasons. If we went to 300 games, which is less than 4 full seasons, about half of the above players would have been eliminated.

This brings the percentage of second rounders to under 10% and the percentage of third rounders to ~5%. If we want to go to players who had solid 10+ year careers, it's even less than that, we are really talking about a miniscule percentage.

So what are the Rangers saying when they are saying he's a second round-quality player in their mind? They are not saying saying he's some top-10 pick. They are saying he stands a 20% chance to be a marginal NHLer and a 5% chance of being a long-term career NHLer.

Sorry to rain on everyone's parade.
True it's arbitrary but there's a lot of thought put into your percentages. It isn't a proven science or anything but I'm not gonna be wasting time trying to argue that it is or isn't, who cares it's semantics? I personally see that there's a little bit to these percentages not much but certainly something to keep in the back of your mind. For instance we all know a lot of the draft is a crap shoot which i think is mostly whatyour stats represent but more than a few diehards around here know this because they look beyond stats. You look for particular traits like leadership, grit, hockey IQ...things that are a little harder to quantify but you know that they are there. Like Cally obviously has it in spades wheras an EC has almost none so though you can't put exact numbers on things like that you can get a general overview of a draft with your numbers and that's important.

It's important at this point not to focus on your percentages I think and focus more on individual play while keeping in mind...hey it's generally got this much of a chance of turning out good. At one point according to your projections what was cally? Artie? Dubi? Staal? Henrik? Sanguinetti? Grachev? Graham? Baranka? Brendl? In the end they either fail 100% or succeed. As we go through each game and each season we can judge not by statistics but by their play how likely their chances are.

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Originally Posted by NYR Boyler87 View Post
He also fell because teams questioned whether he could distribute the puck. He was looked at as a power forward type who didn't pass as much as teams would have liked. IMO, that screams, North-South power forward winger.
Just trying to point out that each guy "Falls" due to specific things and that it's important to identify what specifically caused the "fall." Draft position is important to an extent for initial projections but after a season or two you gotta look at the specific player and their individual circumstances more...really I think (and I'd think most people think) it's more important to look at each individual and the specifics surrounding them rather than a broad 20% or whatnot.


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12-20-2011, 11:16 AM
  #503
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Originally Posted by NYR Boyler87 View Post
He also fell because teams questioned whether he could distribute the puck. He was looked at as a power forward type who didn't pass as much as teams would have liked. IMO, that screams, North-South power forward winger.
Sounds like he can be a more physical version of Brian Boyle.

Last year's Boyle, hopefully.

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12-20-2011, 11:20 AM
  #504
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Originally Posted by MSG the place to be View Post
You realize that level also is home to Darin "Don't call me Oliver" Olver and Bruce Graham. Look at how those guys ended up.

#Hindsightgenius
I'm not saying otherwise. The draft is a crapshoot. But you get a feel for what an organization considers 2nd round guys, not that the organization is saying "Oh, this guy has a low % chance to make the NHL!"

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12-20-2011, 11:30 AM
  #505
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There is one thing I've wanted to comment on for a long time, but not had the time (nota bene, my post is far from entirely a response to the post above).

That's the -- benefit of hindsight -- when it comes to evaluating prospects. Many need to grasp the impact of that when evaluating kids. Hockeyplayers can develop tremendously over just like a 6-12 month period when they are 17/18/19/20 y/o. Most players who become great NHLers are like a three stage rocket. Tic, tac, Toe. You can see a tremendous development from year to year. Or like from the start of the year to the end of the year to the start of the year.

Where you are at like 16/17, even 18 for most kids, don't matter much at all really. A kid can develop so much that compared to someone who don't take off -- a big headstart when you are 17 can be a mile's diffrence the other way 12 month later.

This is definitely something that many overlook when they make comments like "Clarke drafted McIlrath, so he must be good. Or do you claim to know more then Clarke?"

With 12 months hindsight, I would be the best scout in the world even after emptying a 70cl Absolut. Patrice Bergeron was passed over like what 43 times and 6 months later I am sure about 30 teams would like a do-over. Its the same with players like Marc Staal and even Dion Phaneuf and co just to mention a few examples who we now are getting a clear picture of what they will amount too.

So, what it is all about really is to look for development, development and development. Not if the pick was good or not, but wheter the kid after having been picked keeps developing. Because no 18 y/o, except one pick everyother year, is good enough really. And definitely not even remotely someone picked after the like the top 30-45.

Look at Ryan Callahan for example. He was in juniors at the age of 21. He was one of the very first cuts his first camp in NY after signing a contract. Like there where probably 60 players left in camp when he was cut, at the time he was the same age as MDZ is today. Anyone who saw his first year in HFD will attest that everything went in for him -- and he still did not score a PPG. Then, as a 23 y/o in the NHL, he scored 13 pts in 52 games in the NHL. 13 pts in 52 games. Being 2 years older then MDZ is right now. Both his 09' and 10' season to be honest had its rough stretches for sure. Before he now, at the age of 26, is settling in as a very good forward in the NHL.

Thats how long it took! And please note that this is a kid who scored 126 pts in the OHL, played in the WJC's for the USA and had a good tourney and so forth and so forth and so forth, played a big run for Guelph in a co of PO's runs etc if I am not misstaken and everyone who followed our prospects were high on him from the time he was 19 basically. 7 years later, after a developing tremendously every year, he is settling in as a very good forward.

That's what we need to have in the back of our heads when we look at players like McColgan and co. First of all, they better not have a "slow" year. Not more then one at least. Soon, they need to start taking big steps. And keep doing so. Second, they must have some sort of platform to build on. Because during a kids career he will take many big steps from diffrent levels of hockey, and you cannot run into a wall when you take the next step. A kid like Hagelin is a good example of one type of platform that is useful. Which also Callahan had. And thats the ability to assume a checker role if needed. His speed and forechecking ability is always of use out there on the ice, it will enable him to make good plays no matter what level we are talking about. A kid like St. Croix also have a platform that makes him special; his hands are so great that he certainly could make a couple of great plays in the NHL too (Marc Savard was exactly like that too, like his first year camp in NY he looked horrible on the ice most of the time, his skating was way behind most others. Then when the PS games started he scored like a nut). Pretty often though you see kids who needs alot of quantity chances and a goto environment to play their game -- and they always struggle, because if you are used to play like a role of say a Jagr in juniors, its hard to make a impression getting 7 minutes per night. We have seen this struggle with Dawes, Prucha and Zuccarello, and I definitely think Christian Thomas face a risk in this aspect too. Scoring forwards who aint quite good enough offensively to make it and who don't get a grace period because they aren't good enough 2-ways to settle into the NHL for 3-4 years before they start to delivering offensively. Looking at a kid like Zucc, I think its easy for many to fail to realize just how extremely good he is in certain aspects of the game. How many things he does tremendously well and how it still isn't enough. Had this kid blown everyone away in one of the junior leagues and then the WJC's before getting to NY, many would probably look at him with diffrent glasses. Taking that last step aint easy unless you get that grace period to settle in. And you should definitely not write off these kids because they need time and can't deliver when they are still really young. Third, there often is a X-factor, on top of everything else. Things needs to go these kids way. I've seen that with many Swede's for example, but also in like a Ryan Callahan. It takes so much work, you really need to work harder then everyone else. And it seems like a kid needs that extra boost to put in those hrs. Niklas Bäckström got to play in the SEL when he was 15 y/o. Then got to win a WCH's when he was 18 y/o. I remember seeing him in PS for Washington his first year in the NHL, I can tell you this, while he ended up scoring many pts that year next to AO -- he certainly was waaayyy behind in many areas of the game a full year after getting drafted. And I know how extremely hard that kid worked before he went to NA. He got a perfect ratio between expectations and success at a early age, which enabled him to really go for it, and he (a 4th overall pick) became a good 1st line center.

I always think in the lines of the above when I look at a kid. Take JT Miller for example. He'll be a key player for the US in the WJC's which will give him extra motivation. He has a great platform to build on, IE he could break into the league on like any forward role on a 3rd line or he could play on a scoring line with good players. His offensive game is a tad raw, but he is completely fear-less and I love the fact that he is somewhat of a puck-hog and always try's to do a little extra because at the Junior level he is so good that he will take his offensive game to the next level in a hurry there, and have another dimension offensively when he turns pro. I really love that pick.

But remember, development is everything with these kids. If one of them takes off, in juniors and stars in the WJC's etc. it won't matter when they were drafted -- only the sky is the limit. Being a 3rd overall pick in the draft don't mean sheit unless you keep developing after being picked.
Good stuff Ola. Nice perspective.

A draft pick or prospect is a chance taken. Nothing more or less.

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12-20-2011, 11:37 AM
  #506
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Originally Posted by BlueshirtBlitz View Post
Sounds like he can be a more physical version of Brian Boyle.

Last year's Boyle, hopefully.
Yeah, I would liken his style of play to a Brooks Laich or Brian Boyle for sure.

He has some snarl to his game too. I think he can be a 4th liner in the NHL.

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12-20-2011, 11:45 AM
  #507
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Originally Posted by SupersonicMonkey View Post
My issue when you start going off on these things is that you completely dismiss the fact that each player is a unique case.

Will Fogarty make it? No one knows. But it wont be or not be because of some percentage.

It'll be because he either does or does not have the makeup to make it. Both physically and mentally.

Ill tell you this much, Fogarty is a smarter, more well rounded player then a handful of players taken in the first and second rounds.

You were doing this pre-draft and slightly post-draft to kill Miller.

For the record, I was doing it predraft to kill McNeill, not Miller. People assumed that if he is big and projected to be a first rounder, he is a future power forward. I said that he is more likely to be a third liner. In fact, stats were used not by me, but against me in citing how much McNeill can score.

I never attacked Miller, pre or post draft. But people should be aware of what we got with him: another Dubinsky, if all things work out. I am glad to get another Dubinsky with a #15, but let us not pretend the draft is full of All Stars, and we just have to pick which style we like.

As for Fogarty, I am not dismissing him because he was a late pick. Notice that I am not doing it with St. Croix, who was taken even later. But St. Croix is putting up great numbers and getting glowing reports, so there is reason to believe he may exceed others drafted late.

But what exactly is the argument for Fogarty? The truth is that his hype is based on a comment that the Rangers see him as a second rounder. We did not get any great reports about him post draft saying he is surprising with his play. While stats dont prove everything, the fact that he is scoring less than expected is hardly encouraging.

There is nothing that suggests he is above other third, much less second rounders.

The argument for him consists of pointing out the positives in his game: size, whatever.

I remember making the same argument about other prospects many years ago to my Islander fan friend, to which he had a good response: obviously if someone got drafted, he must be doing something right. Obviously he is not a bum off the street. But that doesn't make him an NHLer.

Same here. There is a reason Fogarty got drafted and you didn't. Obviously he has some positives, but so does every third rounder. You are just not as familiar with other teams' third round picks as you are with our guys.


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12-20-2011, 12:33 PM
  #508
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Originally Posted by RangerEsq View Post
But what exactly is the argument for Fogarty? The truth is that his hype is based on a comment that the Rangers see him as a second rounder. We did not get any great reports about him post draft saying he is surprising with his play. While stats dont prove everything, the fact that he is scoring less than expected is hardly encouraging.
That's not necessarily true. Not at all. There are plenty of people who were familiar with Fogarty pre-draft that liked him a great deal. I honestly don't even recall the statement about the Rangers valuing him as a second round pick, and even if I did, it wouldn't matter. I'm high on Fogarty because of what I perceive as good high-end skills. I think he can be a player, regardless of where he was drafted. That's my "hype."

Have we had ANY reports about his play since he was drafted? The only thing I remember reading about him since his season began was a glowing report from some random scout and something about his coaches telling him to start going hard to the net (which is when his production picked up).

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12-20-2011, 01:03 PM
  #509
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It's not as cut and dry as percentages will indicate. If a player is taken 61st overall, does that mean he suddenly goes from 20% to 15% because he missed the second round by one slot? Additionally, does the guy who was drafted 89th have just as good of a shot as the guy who was drafted 61st because they were in the same round?

Unfortunately there are too many outside factors to make any sort of true mathematical argument for probability in drafting. Organizational need, player injuries, general player development, growth spurts, poor scouting on the part of an organization, even the strength of the draft itself can be a determining factor. Sometimes players just slip under the radar.

Additionally, you'd actually have to do a spot by spot comparison to actually calculate percentages that were remotely accurate. If you go back 10 years or so, a player taken at #29 would be considered a 2nd rounder, where today they would be a first rounder. Does that mean their probability of being an NHLer changed with it? Doubtful.

Agree that additional details that go into determining certain player's chances of making it in NHL are so much more complicated but as a starting point - it's good enough for us hockey fans (not matematician) who don't really give a damn about 15% vs 18%.

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12-20-2011, 01:17 PM
  #510
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This "statistical breakdown" proves one fact that was already obvious and didn't need breaking down. Who doesn't realize that most players don't make it? But how does such a statistic assist you in evaluating any specific player? It doesn't. When the Red Wings drafted Datsyuik in the sixth round of the draft, I can assure you they thought the chances he'd make it were far higher than that of an average 6th round pick. There are extenuating circumstances to every draft pick, and such a broad stat doesn't really take any of them into account, thus rendering it more or less insignificant.

I don't know how anyone is ready to jump to conclusions about Fogarty, who has played 35 games in the BCHL since being drafted, and is going to the NCAA next year. Why even compare him to a St. Croix? Totally different situations. I think we have a long way to go before we determine anything about Fogarty except what we already knew when he was drafted: he has a very impressive set of potential tools, and if he can get several of them to where they need to be, he has a chance to be a very nice pick up.

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12-20-2011, 02:11 PM
  #511
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Originally Posted by nyr2k2 View Post
That's not necessarily true. Not at all. There are plenty of people who were familiar with Fogarty pre-draft that liked him a great deal. I honestly don't even recall the statement about the Rangers valuing him as a second round pick, and even if I did, it wouldn't matter. I'm high on Fogarty because of what I perceive as good high-end skills. I think he can be a player, regardless of where he was drafted. That's my "hype."

Have we had ANY reports about his play since he was drafted? The only thing I remember reading about him since his season began was a glowing report from some random scout and something about his coaches telling him to start going hard to the net (which is when his production picked up).

Look, I hope he does make it. I hope he becomes the next Mark Messier. But we have to be realistic about what we've got here. I feel like most people are just hoping that Foggy or Yogi will succeed because we need a power forward in the top-6.

That would be nice, but I am not getting my hopes up until I see something to back it up, and as you've said that we haven't seen too many reports on him to back up the idea that he's a future power forward we need.

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12-20-2011, 02:15 PM
  #512
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Look, I hope he does make it. I hope he becomes the next Mark Messier. But we have to be realistic about what we've got here. I feel like most people are just hoping that Foggy or Yogi will succeed because we need a power forward in the top-6.

That would be nice, but I am not getting my hopes up until I see something to back it up, and as you've said that we haven't seen too many reports on him to back up the idea that he's a future power forward we need.
Well, that's the thing--I'm optimistic about Fogarty based on his level of talent as I perceive it, yet optimistic within the confines of reality. I do recognize that the odds are stacked against him.

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12-20-2011, 02:16 PM
  #513
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This "statistical breakdown" proves one fact that was already obvious and didn't need breaking down. Who doesn't realize that most players don't make it? But how does such a statistic assist you in evaluating any specific player?

It helps to understand the base line from which we are starting with a 3rd rounder.

As I explained before, if a player breaks out the way St. Croix is doing right now, you can start to have him rise in your expectations. However, that is NOT the case with Fogarty. There's absolutely no proof that he's having a breakout season post-draft. There's absolutely no reason to believe that Fogarty is any better than other players drafted in the third round. Once we get that reason, we can adjust how we view him, but not yet.

The whole argument for Fogarty seems to repeat his predraft scouting report: he's a big guy, he drives to the net... and how's that different from other big third rounders who wind up spending their careers in the ECHL?

What is he doing that makes 29 other teams regret that they didn't draft him earlier? Do you think other GMs are now thinking, "man, I should have drafted Fogarty for my own team with an earlier pick!"

What have we found out about Fogarty post-draft that makes us think others regret passing up on him?

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12-20-2011, 02:24 PM
  #514
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That would be nice, but I am not getting my hopes up until I see something to back it up, and as you've said that we haven't seen too many reports on him to back up the idea that he's a future power forward we need.
But it seems like you are basing all of your analysis on stats and historical draft percentages - hence why you are high on St Croix (putting up numbers, dropped due to an "obvious" factor in size) and low on Fogarty (stats are not amazing, "over" picked to be a future PF due to size). There are many many other variables that go into whether or not a player makes it however, things are hardly ever black & white.

The fact that Fogarty has not received glowing reports can be attributed to where he is playing - how well covered are MN HS hockey and the BCHL, especially on HF? You can brush me off as an amateur, a liar, whatever I don't care but in my years of watching hockey there have been 2 HS players that really jumped out at me: Kreider and Fogarty. Fogarty was absolutely manhandling the competition at times last year. I am not saying he is by any means a lock because I don't know him personally and talent will only get you so far, but dismissing him due to size, draft pedigree, relatively low rate of scoring, etc is premature.

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12-20-2011, 02:36 PM
  #515
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Originally Posted by HatTrick Swayze View Post
The fact that Fogarty has not received glowing reports can be attributed to where he is playing - how well covered are MN HS hockey and the BCHL, especially on HF?

I'm not asking why we don't have reports. There may be a perfectly legitimate reason. He may be an amazing prospect that we just don't know about.

But the reality is that he's a third round pick and we don't have any significant information beyond that.

Let us look at what's going on here. I am saying that we should keep our minds open while paying attention to the fact that third rounders have only a tiny chance to have long-term NHL careers.

Opposing me are people who are saying, "we don't have information on Fogarty, so therefore, you can't say that he's just like all other third rounders." That's totally backwards. The fact that we lack info on Fogarty means that we cannot differentiate him from other third rounders, and therefore, average odds of a third rounder apply, subject to us getting reports on him in the future.

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12-20-2011, 02:52 PM
  #516
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Steven Fogarty was a beast last night according to the Vees media guy

https://twitter.com/#!/VeesVoice





http://pentictonvees.wordpress.com/2...sweet-sixteen/
Here is some info on Fogarty, provided by the computer known as RangerBoy.

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Once more the play was created by the hard work of Steven Fogarty; he intercepted an errant Merritt pass at center-ice before setting up Benik. Fogarty would come across the Merritt blue-line on the left side before sliding a pass across to Benik, who beat Chimienti on the glove side at 5:25.

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12-20-2011, 03:05 PM
  #517
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But we have to be realistic about what we've got here.
Why? Who defines what is considered "realistic"?

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12-20-2011, 03:17 PM
  #518
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Why? Who defines what is considered "realistic"?

If you are right more often than wrong, as opposed to being optimistic, then wondering why scouts can't get us Parise every time at the end of the first round.

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12-20-2011, 03:22 PM
  #519
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I'm not asking why we don't have reports. There may be a perfectly legitimate reason. He may be an amazing prospect that we just don't know about.

But the reality is that he's a third round pick and we don't have any significant information beyond that.

Let us look at what's going on here. I am saying that we should keep our minds open while paying attention to the fact that third rounders have only a tiny chance to have long-term NHL careers.

Opposing me are people who are saying, "we don't have information on Fogarty, so therefore, you can't say that he's just like all other third rounders." That's totally backwards. The fact that we lack info on Fogarty means that we cannot differentiate him from other third rounders, and therefore, average odds of a third rounder apply, subject to us getting reports on him in the future.
Not speaking for anyone else, that's not what I am saying. I am saying that your percentage is a meaningless statistic in regards to any player, not just Fogarty. Every player has his own set of circumstances surrounding him, the team that drafted him, the scouting staff that selected him, etc etc. This stat is not useful in determining the likelihood of success for ANY player, not just Steven Fogarty. If you want to bring in more specific arguments, like play style, physical attributes, level of competition, or any other factors that might give a more specific perspective on an individual player and his situation. If Fogarty fails, is it because of the 85% chance due to him being a third rounder? No. That statistic is trivial when discussing individual players. If a player succeeds or fails, it will be because of a number of factors. Where he was drafted isn't really among them (unless, again, he was drafted early in the draft).

Furthermore, once you get out of the lottery picks, or at the latest the early portions of the second round, the rankings start to differentiate wildly from team to team. Certain teams are far more invested in scouting certain leagues or global regions than others. Some teams are more invested in one type of scouting method than others. Fogarty may not have even been on the radar for some teams, while others may have been in love with him. There are 30-60 guys that everyone is familiar with, and then there are a bunch of guys that some teams or scouts may have seen or heard of, and others may know the name and nothing else. Not every club runs their scouting operation the same way, and not every club can afford to run their scouting operation the same way.

It is important to consider where a player was drafted if we are talking about lottery picks and first round picks. Maybe even second round picks, because then you are dealing with what should be a higher level of talent, a higher level of success, and thus, more responsibility comes with your selection. I don't think that really applies after the first or second rounds.

We all know that most players don't make it, but how does that understanding help us evaluate an individual player? I've read RangerEsq's explanations, but I just don't buy them. If anything, I think it does us a disservice to evaluate a player based on where he was drafted, unless he was drafted relatively early on. For example, the Kings drafted Max Kitsyn in the 6th or 7th round. I think most teams had him as a much higher player than that, but other issues, issues that aren't about his ability to play, caused him to slip. So do we need to feel that he has practically no chance to succeed because most 6th/7th rounders don't make it? I don't think that's how you should go about evaluating him as a prospect.

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12-20-2011, 03:30 PM
  #520
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For the record, I was doing it predraft to kill McNeill, not Miller. People assumed that if he is big and projected to be a first rounder, he is a future power forward. I said that he is more likely to be a third liner. In fact, stats were used not by me, but against me in citing how much McNeill can score.

I never attacked Miller, pre or post draft. But people should be aware of what we got with him: another Dubinsky, if all things work out. I am glad to get another Dubinsky with a #15, but let us not pretend the draft is full of All Stars, and we just have to pick which style we like.
I think the bolded part is what annoys people with your posts.

I appreciate your percentages because it clarifies how few prospects in the later rounds make it to the NHL. However, you draw way too many conclusions based on the general percentages. To be fair you have no idea if Miller will develop into Dubinsky, Grachev or Jamie Benn. The draft is a snapshot at one moment in time and players values rise and fall very drastically in the months and years proceeding the draft.

While chances a player drafted #15 as Miller will develop into a legit premier forward is slim, just like the chances that Yogan drafted at #100 could develop into a good second-liner, it is possible. For this reason it is unfair and overly prophetic to state that Miller is another Dubinsky if things work out. He could in fact be a Parise or Benn, though of course it would be overly hopeful to expect this from him.

I think you need to either add some qualifiers into your statements or avoid making such sweeping generalisations regarding players development.


Last edited by The Sweetness: 12-20-2011 at 03:36 PM.
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12-20-2011, 03:58 PM
  #521
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Originally Posted by RangerEsq View Post
For the record, I was doing it predraft to kill McNeill, not Miller. People assumed that if he is big and projected to be a first rounder, he is a future power forward. I said that he is more likely to be a third liner. In fact, stats were used not by me, but against me in citing how much McNeill can score.

I never attacked Miller, pre or post draft. But people should be aware of what we got with him: another Dubinsky, if all things work out. I am glad to get another Dubinsky with a #15, but let us not pretend the draft is full of All Stars, and we just have to pick which style we like.

As for Fogarty, I am not dismissing him because he was a late pick. Notice that I am not doing it with St. Croix, who was taken even later. But St. Croix is putting up great numbers and getting glowing reports, so there is reason to believe he may exceed others drafted late.

But what exactly is the argument for Fogarty? The truth is that his hype is based on a comment that the Rangers see him as a second rounder. We did not get any great reports about him post draft saying he is surprising with his play. While stats dont prove everything, the fact that he is scoring less than expected is hardly encouraging.

There is nothing that suggests he is above other third, much less second rounders.

The argument for him consists of pointing out the positives in his game: size, whatever.

I remember making the same argument about other prospects many years ago to my Islander fan friend, to which he had a good response: obviously if someone got drafted, he must be doing something right. Obviously he is not a bum off the street. But that doesn't make him an NHLer.

Same here. There is a reason Fogarty got drafted and you didn't. Obviously he has some positives, but so does every third rounder. You are just not as familiar with other teams' third round picks as you are with our guys.
My mistake it was McNeill.

Miller is going to be better then Dubinsky. He's much further along then Dubinsky was. He's a different kind of player. He's heady, a playmaker.

I don't know what Fogarty will be, but he has a ton of potential. Had Notre Dame not insisted that he play a season in the BCHL, I don't think this would be as much of a debate. I can't believe im going to say this but maybe Canadian Juniors would have been a better route.

For the record, your statistical analysis is interesting even if I don't always agree. You manage to find some interesting numbers. And obviously put a lot of thought and energy into it.

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12-20-2011, 04:47 PM
  #522
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I appreciate your percentages because it clarifies how few prospects in the later rounds make it to the NHL. However, you draw way too many conclusions based on the general percentages..
This seems to represent the way most people including myself feel about this particular debate. Taking a very general percentage arguement and trying to apply it to a very specific case just makes so little sense. What exactly is your purpose in all of this? To make us all think that FOgarty will fail? That there is a percentage he will fail? I can tell you everyone clearly knows the latter so i really cannot figure out what your goal is here in all of this. Are you annoyed that people have a high opinion of fogarty? Are you generalizing that all people are high on FOgarty because of this "2nd rounder" quote by the rangers? There were a lot of posts including a few I refuse to read for obvious reasons so i'm having a difficult time figuring out what you are actually trying to prove.

I know that when you started this you were not setting out to have a "My percentages work and here's why" debate lord knows we've seen that before. Unfortunate that a significant amount of time seems to be spent on such a useless arguement and it detracts from the arguement to the point where I am having trouble discerning whatever it is you were trying to actually say. You seem to be indulging in definitive statements like Miller=Dubs

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12-20-2011, 04:53 PM
  #523
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Last year was a weaker draft. As far as BCHL stats--I don't think they're easy to quantify. What Zajac did several years ago really doesn't have any bearing on the league now. I think we'll start to know about Fogarty once he gets to Notre Dame which doesn't mean though that this isn't an important development for him. He's no longer a big fish in a small pond. The BCHL is a step up and should round out some parts of his game.

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12-20-2011, 05:15 PM
  #524
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Wasn't Brad Richards a 3rd round draft pick?

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12-20-2011, 06:46 PM
  #525
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Wasn't Brad Richards a 3rd round draft pick?
Yep. 3rd rounder in the same year as VL I believe.

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