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2011-12 Minnesota Wild II

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Old
12-12-2011, 11:04 AM
  #26
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Originally Posted by Jarick View Post
Ain't much of a sniper. Ain't that cheap either.
How many 24 year old 30 goal scorers make $3MM? He's streaky as all get out, and hasn't meshed with the team yet.

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12-12-2011, 11:08 AM
  #27
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What I take away from that is that Puck Daddy thinks the only reason we are on top of the division is because of the Canucks slow start.

He's entitled to his opinion I guess.

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12-12-2011, 11:13 AM
  #28
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Originally Posted by Northland Wild Man View Post
What I take away from that is that Puck Daddy thinks the only reason we are on top of the division is because of the Canucks slow start.

He's entitled to his opinion I guess.
Right, he basically says we only lead the division because the Canucks aren't. Good reasoning I guess. Would be better to say we lead the division due to our solid play but I guess that would be too much credit to us huh.

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12-12-2011, 11:28 AM
  #29
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Originally Posted by squidz View Post
How many 24 year old 30 goal scorers make $3MM? He's streaky as all get out, and hasn't meshed with the team yet.
He scored 30 goals once, back to back 20 goal seasons, and is on pace for 20.

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12-12-2011, 11:37 AM
  #30
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Ouch! Hackett hit in head -- near ear -- by Staubitz. Hunched over, he leaves the ice.
http://twitter.com/#!/BloodStrib/sta...75315210129408

Quote:
Hackett has not returned to ice.
http://twitter.com/#!/BloodStrib/sta...78188736188416

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12-12-2011, 11:37 AM
  #31
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Originally Posted by Jarick View Post
He scored 30 goals once, back to back 20 goal seasons, and is on pace for 20.
He scored 30 goals in his only healthy season. It's semantics anyway. Until Saturday, he was leading the team in goals despite playing fewer games than many of the players he was tied with.

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12-12-2011, 11:38 AM
  #32
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Also in good news

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Greetings from @mnwild practice. Zidlicky, Latendresse, Harding and Clutterbuck are all on the ice today.
http://twitter.com/#!/BloodStrib/sta...70416229502976

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12-12-2011, 11:39 AM
  #33
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This is not good. I reaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaally don't want to see Kuemper on the bench with the team.

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12-12-2011, 11:39 AM
  #34
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Wysh and Leahy are really good at what they do...so is Bourne...but Lambert....idk...he's not much of a professional.

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12-12-2011, 11:44 AM
  #35
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Another absolute garbage article with stats attacking the Wild

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12-12-2011, 11:46 AM
  #36
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Ha! I was like I bet this is by that Cam Charron character...him and this Artem Chubarov guy (on twitter) are insufferable...surprise surprise that their Nuck fans.

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12-12-2011, 12:00 PM
  #37
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Okay I just re-did my stats.

I took all the team stats post lockout through last night. I compared shot differential vs goal differential in terms of predicting success in terms of win percentage.

Shot differential has a 25.69% correlation with win percentage
Goal differential has an 85.20% correlation with win percentage

It's just not a good way to "analyze" a team.

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12-12-2011, 12:09 PM
  #38
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Quote:
Kent Youngblood
@BloodStrib Kent Youngblood
Greetings from @mnwild practice. Zidlicky, Latendresse, Harding and Clutterbuck are all on the ice today.

Yessss...

Quote:
Ouch! Hackett hit in head -- near ear -- by Staubitz. Hunched over, he leaves the ice.
Quote:
Hackett has not returned to ice.


FUUU - C'mon Wild, you're injuring your own players more than other teams!

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12-12-2011, 12:12 PM
  #39
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Nooooo!

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12-12-2011, 12:15 PM
  #40
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now on twitter a statty is saying that the 'bounces' take a whole season (sometimes more(!)) to even out! So I guess we're in for a hell of a regression to the mean next season guys!

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12-12-2011, 12:20 PM
  #41
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Minnesota View Post

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Old
12-12-2011, 12:32 PM
  #42
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jarick View Post
Okay I just re-did my stats.

I took all the team stats post lockout through last night. I compared shot differential vs goal differential in terms of predicting success in terms of win percentage.

Shot differential has a 25.69% correlation with win percentage
Goal differential has an 85.20% correlation with win percentage

It's just not a good way to "analyze" a team.
A third stat would be interesting to see, such as the correlation between shot differential and goal differential. In other words, at what point does the Wild's large shot differential affect the goal differential which primarily affects the win percentage.

Anyway I don't know why anyone would have a big problem with the articles. I thought they were quite professional considering the sensitive subject matter.

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12-12-2011, 12:36 PM
  #43
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Ladys and Gentlemen,
The Minnesota Wild are leading ESPN's Power Rankings:

http://espn.go.com/nhl/powerrankings

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12-12-2011, 12:46 PM
  #44
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Originally Posted by countrygentleman View Post
Wow. Wild just got ripped apart on Yahoo Puck Daddy's weekly What We Learned segment.

Guy mentions a couple teams on three game win streaks and then fails to mention the 7 game road win streak we have going and instead only points out Brodziak leads the team in goals and it certainly won't last that we'll lead the division. I used to respect this clown but c'mon, it's like guys are afraid to praise the Minnesota Wild.
He mentioned the 7 game win streak in the beginning of his article, but then went on to say that the only reason they're in first is because Vancouver allows it.

Quote:
We've heard a lot of talk in recent weeks about how nice of a story it is that the Wild keep leading the NHL and winning game after game despite no one thinking they would be any good.

They've won seven in a row and statistically they probably shouldn't be leading their division; they're largely doing so because the best team, the Canucks, got off to such a poor start.

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Old
12-12-2011, 12:49 PM
  #45
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Yeah it's not because we're winning or they're losing..not at all. It's because we're not losing (like we should) and they're not winning (like they should)

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Old
12-12-2011, 01:02 PM
  #46
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jarick View Post
Okay I just re-did my stats.

I took all the team stats post lockout through last night. I compared shot differential vs goal differential in terms of predicting success in terms of win percentage.

Shot differential has a 25.69% correlation with win percentage
Goal differential has an 85.20% correlation with win percentage

It's just not a good way to "analyze" a team.
Of course, the argument with goal differential is that sample size is small (goals per game versus shots per game). The stat freaks claim that they take what SoH has suggested, and use a correlation between shot differential and goal differential to predict the latter.

As I've harped on before, a big problem for stat geeks is they can't separate cause, effect, and correlation. They're so caught up in the fact that team shooting percentage is not predictive year over year (that is, an individual team's 2010 Sh% does not imply their 2011 Sh%) that they accept that all teams will trend towards 7.5% (league average shooting %). They don't understand that, with an average roster turnover of probably 15%~25%, of course team shooting percentage is not predictive. If you (ignorantly) accept the logic that "team shooting percentage is not predictive, therefore all teams will trend to the league average shooting percentage" then the argument for using shots differential makes perfect sense. Under those conditions, goals differential is exactly equal to shots differential times 7.5%. Therefore if goals differential is predictive of win percentage, shots differential is predictive of win percentage at the same rate.

Obviously your numbers disprove that belief.

On another note, I just ran very rough estimates for the number of games required to predict a season's worth of goals differential. If I did it right, to get alpha = 5% with a confidence interval of 5%, you'd need just under half a season worth of games. For calculating shots differential, you only need a tiny sample (my incorrect method got me <1 game actually). That said, it's been years since I've had to actually math out statistics calculations, so my math is probably wrong in addition to my known to be erroneous methodology.

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Old
12-12-2011, 01:02 PM
  #47
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Averman View Post
He mentioned the 7 game win streak in the beginning of his article, but then went on to say that the only reason they're in first is because Vancouver allows it.
They should just rename "Vancouver Canucks" to "Vancouver Chucks". I already made them a logo, too:


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12-12-2011, 01:08 PM
  #48
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Averman View Post
He mentioned the 7 game win streak in the beginning of his article, but then went on to say that the only reason they're in first is because Vancouver allows it.
Then he fails to note that the Wild actually started slower than the Canucks. 4-4-1 is better than 3-3-3 (with two SOW).

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12-12-2011, 01:20 PM
  #49
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Persian Wild View Post
Ladys and Gentlemen,
The Minnesota Wild are leading ESPN's Power Rankings:

http://espn.go.com/nhl/powerrankings
Morbid curiosity got the best of me, and I looked at the user comments for that. Good god that wings fan is mad. I also got a kick out of the one guy's personal rankings:

1) Buffalo
2) Wild
3) Wings

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Old
12-12-2011, 01:27 PM
  #50
Jarick
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Quote:
Originally Posted by squidz View Post
Of course, the argument with goal differential is that sample size is small (goals per game versus shots per game). The stat freaks claim that they take what SoH has suggested, and use a correlation between shot differential and goal differential to predict the latter.
I've been replying to a lot of these types of articles and the only response I've gotten was forwarding me to an article about the Pythagorean Equation being a good predictor of success. And I'll agree. 85% r-squared is pretty solid.

Haven't heard back on an shots/Fenwick crap though.

Quote:
Obviously your numbers disprove that belief.
I stand by my thought that shot based statistics only make sense if all teams play the same system. In that case, talent would be the only variable (getting more shots and giving up fewer). But with different systems, shots have more or less value for some teams. The Wild just don't care about shots against. They care about quality of shots.

Scoring chances I'm sure would be a better predictor but we don't have them. So we just go with goals.

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