(For the record, not in the "OMG trade McBain" group, I'm actually against it unless we get a good trade. Nail Yakupov is worth the above trade IMO).
That's basically what I figured. I'm not one to jump at trading McBain either unless it's in a "hockey deal" for a quality player.
With the uncertainty surrounding our defense going into next season with Allen's UFA status and whether or not JR wants to re-sign him, what options JR has his eyes on with the FA market, and the development time of Murphy/Dumoulin/Sanguinetti, it's really tough to say that we'd be able to get something at McBain's level or higher right away if we do trade with the Oilers for that pick.
That's basically what I figured. I'm not one to jump at trading McBain either unless it's in a "hockey deal" for a quality player.
With the uncertainty surrounding our defense going into next season with Allen's UFA status and whether or not JR wants to re-sign him, what options JR has his eyes on with the FA market, and the development time of Murphy/Dumoulin/Sanguinetti, it's really tough to say that we'd be able to get something at McBain's level or higher right away if we do trade with the Oilers for that pick.
All that trade does is make the glaring hole on the team a top 4 defenseman instead of a top line forward. Not only is that a hole that we're in a FAR better position to fill from within, but all JR would have to do to go outside the organization to fill it is look to fill the cap space we need with Suter instead of Parise. Granted, it may not work out, but Parise might not either, you know?
Having the hole we need to fill be a top 4 dman instead of a top line forward, with the way the organization is currently set up, is a much easier situation to deal with, IMO.
If we are talking about going after Suter vs. Parise, it should be noted:
G/G: 16th (ie Bubble team)
GA/G: 25th (ie lotto pick)
But stats are useless.
JR specifically stated in the press conference that he'd be looking for a top-line winger. While nobody can claim that it's Parise for certain, he did specifically address that. I feel that JR will feel at least partially obligated to jump into the depths of the FA market to go after at least the one player he's hinting at.
I didn't listen to what he had to say, but did he mention anything about what to do with the defense for next season? (Not a rhetorical question, I'm actually asking for a response)
I'm also not sure how Suter would do without somebody on the Canes along the same mold as Weber to compliment and serve as a foil to. I know he's a fantastic defenseman in his own right, but how would he be changed while being used here in a different role than the one that he is used in over in Nashville?
Yeah, but the only obvious choice is Nail at No. 1. They can take a d-man at No. 2 and not get laughed at for passing up Yakupov at the top.
Quote:
Originally Posted by geehaad
Now you're thinkin'.
The Canes have some fine young defensemen in the pipeline, and a #8 pick would probably get the Oilers as much as they are looking for this year.
Before we get carried away with trade proposals for the No. 1 pick, do we really want Nail Yakupov? The only reason he's the clear No. 1 this year is because the rest of the top 20 guys were all equally unimpressive this season. He really did nothing to "cement" his status this season, and still nobody caught up to him. I'm not saying he won't be a great player, I'm just saying this is probably not the draft to get caught up in trade scenarios. I just don't think Yakupov is *that* much better than Faska, Forsberg or any number of the d-men we can get at No. 8. He's better, but not by McBain-plus. On top of that, he's Russian. On top of *that*, there's a labor dispute looming. I can't imagine we'd want any part of a young Russian, picked No. 1 overall, who can't negotiate a contract because there's no CBA. Something about a 10-foot pole ...
I'm not advocating anything, it's just food for thought...because this is my favorite time of year to carry out discussions on this board.
A #1 overall that isn't a generational talent, or one that hasn't separated himself fully from the rest of the class, is one that is that much cheaper to obtain. I didn't listen to JR's quote about obtaining a top-line winger, but perhaps it could include picking up the best RW in this year's draft. Obviously it doesn't make sense that JR's quote was made with this in mind, but it's possible that it could come up.
So let's say JR sees Yapukov as filling that top-line winger slot he spoke of, and he trades McBain to obtain Nail - I'm not advocating it, just carrying the thought through. He would then be adding talented youth at the forward position (something he's acknowledged is lacking), rather than drafting more talented youth at the defense position (something that is a bit of a surplus these days). He still has to get the team to the salary floor, so he would backfill McBain's slot with a FA defenseman. Obviously there would have to be a available defenseman out there that JR likes just as much as McBain, or slots into the back-end picture as well or better (if he wanted to pair more of a defensive defenseman with Pitkanen, for instance).
I also think it doesn't happen if he is quite certain that Parise (or some other baller FA forward) wants to join the Hurricanes. He's already stated that he thinks the top 10 are about equal and he's happy with his draft position, so I think the proposal would almost have to come from Edmonton's end. In that case, it stands to reason that the deal becomes cheaper for the Hurricanes to make.
I'm not advocating anything, it's just food for thought...because this is my favorite time of year to carry out discussions on this board.
A #1 overall that isn't a generational talent, or one that hasn't separated himself fully from the rest of the class, is one that is that much cheaper to obtain. I didn't listen to JR's quote about obtaining a top-line winger, but perhaps it could include picking up the best RW in this year's draft. Obviously it doesn't make sense that JR's quote was made with this in mind, but it's possible that it could come up.
So let's say JR sees Yapukov as filling that top-line winger slot he spoke of, and he trades McBain to obtain Nail - I'm not advocating it, just carrying the thought through. He would then be adding talented youth at the forward position (something he's acknowledged is lacking), rather than drafting more talented youth at the defense position (something that is a bit of a surplus these days). He still has to get the team to the salary floor, so he would backfill McBain's slot with a FA defenseman. Obviously there would have to be a available defenseman out there that JR likes just as much as McBain, or slots into the back-end picture as well or better (if he wanted to pair more of a defensive defenseman with Pitkanen, for instance).
I also think it doesn't happen if he is quite certain that Parise (or some other baller FA forward) wants to join the Hurricanes. He's already stated that he thinks the top 10 are about equal and he's happy with his draft position, so I think the proposal would almost have to come from Edmonton's end. In that case, it stands to reason that the deal becomes cheaper for the Hurricanes to make.
There is some logic to this line of thinking. Yakupov and Suter(for example) instead of Parise and McBain. Which would you prefer? Its also cheaper for at least the first three years. I of course am ignoring the player drafted at 8 who isnt NHL ready. Im strictly speaking roster over the next couple years while our current guys are under contract.
There is some logic to this line of thinking. Yakupov and Suter(for example) instead of Parise and McBain. Which would you prefer? Its also cheaper for at least the first three years. I of course am ignoring the player drafted at 8 who isnt NHL ready. Im strictly speaking roster over the next couple years while our current guys are under contract.
I'd prefer Parise and Suter, thank you.
In all honesty, I'm torn on that one. I think we'd be selling McBain too early before we really develop him fully and let him round out a few rough spots in his game. Suter will obviously be better for right now, but McBain could fix his issues and become even more reliable in the future. It's also a general theme on this board to wish for "home-grown talent" rather than acquisitions through trades/free agency, and trading off McBain would revert from that goal.
Also, nobody knows how Nail is going to end up performing right away at the NHL level fresh out of juniors. If we don't make that trade and do end up signing Parise (purely hypothetical), we get a known quantity that has proven himself to score in a mainly-defensive system over the years without too many high-quality scorers.
There's also no telling how Parise will play here in a different system away from New Jersey, where he's going to be paired with a top center rather than a pretty good center with another outstanding winger. I'm not sure how it would play out switching lines from Parise-Zajac-Kovalchuk to Parise-Staal-xxx (Tlusty for now).
Option A, the trade, is to take a proven commodity at defense(for what I assume would be something like 3yrs/18mil or somewhere around there) and make a risky pick that relies on Nail fitting in right away in the next few years and leading to success (which then means paying him more after his ELC expires).
Option B, keeping McBain and signing Parise, is to keep a semi-proven commodity at defense that is still developing and has not likely reached his potential yet, and signing a proven commodity at forward (similar to Staal money, maybe 4yrs/34mil or something like that, I'm not sure but I feel that he would want a shorter contract to be able to compete somewhere if it does not work out here). Plus, we can still draft Faksa/Forsberg if he's there/Teravainen/whatever defenseman is there, and hope that they are able to contribute to at least a 2nd/3rd line player or bottom-pairing defenseman. While I know it doesn't always work that way, considering the stable of prospects in Charlotte that have not made that jump up to the NHL despite these expectations, it still provides us with a hope.
That said, I'd hope to go with Option B, to keep McBain, sign Parise, draft whomever is BPA at 8th, and then look to sign a FA defenseman not named Suter if Allen jumps off the ship and doesn't re-sign by July 1st. There's no reason to keep looking at Allen if he doesn't re-sign by the beginning of free agency, we might as well see what else is out there within JR's hypothetical price range.
EDIT: Hmm, typed out more than I expected to. Read the last paragraph if you're lazy.
With the #1 overall pick, there will always be the question of how quickly they can adapt and produce in the NHL. If Yakupov were to struggle for the first couple of weeks or months to find his game, his addition to the roster is negated as the team would have another rough start they would need to rebound from.
You know what you'll get with a Parise, Ryan or Nash and all three could step in and contribute from day one.
Depends on how long we have Parise/Nash/Ryan for. Sure, they'll contribute immediately, but long term, having Yakupov/Suter would be a much better pick up.
An interesting part of this theory is that, if JR went this route, he did so under the impression that Columbus would be picking #1 overall (since he sounded so confident in getting that top-line winger) and had thus worked out a deal with Howson for that pick. So Edmonton winning the lottery and possibly grabbing Yakupov would throw a wrench in that plan.
Giving this more thought, I don't see why JR would move McBain before next season. He's got to get McBain signed, which is going to be, what...$1.5M/$2M/$2.5M over 3 years? He's going to have anywhere from 1 to 3 new defensemen playing with the Checkers next year (Dumoulin, Murphy, and/or Biega). He's still got Joslin and Harrison under contract.
If JR likes Allen enough, he could signed to a long-term deal and it would not hamstring the Canes roster at all...certainly not next year. We know an offer has been tendered, so there is *some* interest there.
Going into 2013-2014, if Dumoulin's play demands a roster spot after a year in Charlotte, JR has the option of letting Harrison and/or Joslin go. If after a year in Charlotte Murphy looks NHL-ready, JR picks two of Murphy/McBain/Faulk to be the go-forward RH PMD, while the remaining one is bait for that "final" remaining piece of the playoff-ready roster.
Of course if the prospects don't pan out, JR either keeps what he's got in the bottom pairing guys, stays patient with Murphy, and this year's defense is largely what is iced to begin the 2013 season.
I don't see JR trading to move up to draft Yakupov. He said he wants a top 6 winger who is a top 6 winger right NOW. Not one whose in that tier 2 or 3 group who may or may not turn into one, he wants that tier 1 guy who is no questions asked a top 6 winger.
Drafting an 18 year old does not gurantee you a top 6 winger. Just from his comments alone, I don't see him trading McBain, 8th, + to Edmonton for that #1 pick. If a trade is done, its for an established top 6 winger, a guy that you know what you are getting. Not one that is a question mark.
Forsberg, Dumba, Faksa, Ceci or Gaunce and i'm fine with it. Faksa, if available, seems most logical pick. We badly need another body in the middle, he's from Kitchener, lately we have history with them. Honestly i can't take the logic 'we already have Alt, Levi, Dumoulin and etc, so please don't take Dumba or Ceci'. We need good players, no matter at what position they playing.
id stick with the thought the guy we get at 8 might not be that much of a drop off, and in the end a guy we're glad we have. if we are going to trade up, id rather it be for an actual star player.
id stick with the thought the guy we get at 8 might not be that much of a drop off, and in the end a guy we're glad we have. if we are going to trade up, id rather it be for an actual star player.
I really think Nail Yakupov is a star player in the making for sure. I just think he's a victim of marginalization like every other consensus top pick that has remained that way over the course of a full season. We've seen the media do it to guys like Tavares and Hall especially. When you're on the radar as potentially a generational talent at 16, the scouts have plenty of time to find something they hate about you. It was a bit different for guys like Stamkos and RNH who kind of broke away from the pack as the year went on. I think Yakupov is suffering from the same thing here.
I don't know if he's an immediate point per game player or anything like that, but he's probably a good bet to score 50-60 points as soon as next season. I think the real pretender at the top of the draft is Griegorenko. I just don't see it with him.
It'll be an interesting draft to be sure. Actually have no idea what will//might happen. but if we do trade the 8 pick, I'd rather it be for an already established player like Bobby Ryan, than it be for, say, moving up to take Nail.
It'll be an interesting draft to be sure. Actually have no idea what will//might happen. but if we do trade the 8 pick, I'd rather it be for an already established player like Bobby Ryan, than it be for, say, moving up to take Nail.
Agreed, and I think Rutherford will always take the safer, proven player over the question mark of a draft pick.
1: Edmonton Oilers - RW Nail Yakupov, Sarnia (OHL)
team needs: Defense
reasoning: You always draft the best player available, always. In this case Nail is the clear #1, though I personally don't believe him to be this ubertalent offensively that many do at this point. He's had his share of injury problems over this past year as well, including a concussion, making me question his long term impact playing the way he does stylistically. He was also ineffective against a mid-tier Saginaw team, putting up only 5 points in 6 games and registering a -7 in the series. I'd compare him to a more talented Evander Kane.
Alternative picks: Trade down to #2 or 3
2: Columbus Blue Jackets - D Ryan Murray, Everett (WHL)
Needs: everything
Reasoning: With GM Howson's already stated reluctance to draft a Russian forward, this may actually be a bit of a blessing in disguise for him in staying GM of Columbus, but for the fanbase and the franchise this is a disaster. Despite Jack Johnson finally looking like he might live up to some of the hype since being traded to Columbus, their defense is still in shambles, and 4 of their top 5 prospects are forwards. Murray may not just fill BPA here, but organizational need as well. I've heard Murray compared to former #3 overall selection Glen Wesley quite a bit.
Alternative picks: F Filip Forsberg, C Mikhail Grigorenko, C Alex Galchenyuk
3 - Montreal Canadiens - C Mikhail Grigorenko, Quebec (QMJHL)
Needs: High end scorer
Reasoning: Grigorenko is an extremely talented player, and despite the rumored issues with his work ethic he may very well prove to be the best player from this draft when all is said and done. No immediate comparison off the top of my head, maybe a bigger version of Jeff Carter.
Alternative Picks: C Alex Galchenyuk
4: New York Islanders - D Matthew Dumba, Red Deer (WHL)
Needs: High End Offensive Dman, Wing
Reasoning: I really don't think this pick could play out any better for the Isles. Dumba, who's likely the consensus best player on the board at this point, fills an organizational need nicely in that he very well may be the best offensive dman out there at this point in the draft. Dumba's solid offensively and pretty underrated defensively, though he's not the biggest player out there. He's drawn some comparisons to Dion Phaneuf for his offensive ability and desire to play with an edge to his game.
Alternative Picks: F Filip Forsberg
5: Toronto Maple Leafs - C/RW Alex Galchenyuk, Sarnia (OHL)
Needs: High End C, Goalie
Reasoning: Galchenyuk, heading into this year, was regarded as a possibility to threaten for #1 overall. Instead, the promising center prospect was derailed by injury and likely could slip even further then this. Or he could go as high as #3 to Montreal, depending on what their scouting staff is feeling like at the time. He's a highly talented center at the junior level, with excellent speed and has a good combination of size and ability. Igor Larionov compared him to Marian Hossa, though he lacks Hossa's two-way game IMO.
Alternative Picks: F Filip Forsberg
6: Anaheim Ducks - D Jacob Trouba, US U-18 (NTDP/USHL)
Needs: Defensive defenseman
Reasoning: Trouba may be the most well rounded overall defenseman in this draft, though in terms of sheer upside in one category he doesn't match what's offered by Murray or Dumba. Trouba had excellent offensive numbers (for a defenseman) for the NTDP this year, but that's not to confuse him with being a pure offensive dman like Cam Fowler. Trouba has far more an edge to his game and is far more reliable in his own zone. My personal comparison is to Zach Bogosian.
Alternative Picks: D Griffin Reinhart, F Filip Forsberg
7: Minnesota Wild - D Griffin Reinhart, Edmonton (WHL)
Needs: Defensive Dman
Reasoning: Minnesota is prettymuch loaded up front with prospects, and Reinhart offers a potential BPA here and team need fit with his strong defensive game. He plays with an edge while not really venturing into the realm of being dirty, and has untapped offensive upside... though the comparisons of him to Weber are a massive stretch IMO. I'd compare him more to Luke Schenn.
Alternative Picks: D Cody Ceci
8: Carolina Hurricanes - F Filip Forsberg, Leksand (Allsvenskan)
Needs: Top line winger
Reasoning: Forsberg has long been considered one of the top prospects in this years draft, but his slip to the #8 spot isn't so much inability on his part (he's still widely considered one of the 3 or 4 best forwards in the draft) as it is team need being filled with one of the defensemen for the teams ahead of Carolina. If Forsberg does slip from the #2-4 spots all the way down to #8 the Canes will be laughing all the way to the bank much like the Flyers were with Couturier last year. Offensively he has a nice shot, but is known for being more of playmaker who uses his size and speed to fend off defenders. Reminds me a bit of Mikko Koivu, though Forsberg may end up playing wing in the NHL.
Alternative Picks: F Teuvo Teravainen, C Radek Faksa
personally, I'm hoping for Teravainen if Forsberg does indeed go to the Isles, Leafs, or Ducks.
9: Winnipeg Jets - C Radek Faksa, Kitchener (OHL)
Needs: High End Prospects
Reasoning: Winnipeg, while not truly lacking anywhere, has a dearth of high end talent in their system. Essentially it's what young talent they have at the NHL level already where they do have quite a few nice young players (Kane, Bogosian, Burmistrov, Pavelec) and their top 4 prospects in Scheifele, Klingberg, Cormier, and Postma for what can be reliably projected as having an NHL future. Faksa brings some nice offensive gifts and even more important a very projectable game with him as a prospect. Very low risk selection here, and one that could still pay off nicely for the Jets long term.
Alternative Selections: D Morgan Reilly, D Cody Ceci, LW Teuvo Teravainen
10: Tampa Bay Lightning - D Morgan Reilly, Moose Jaw (WHL)
Needs: Defense
Reason: Fills team need and is arguably BPA at this point, though Teravainen holds the higher upside IMO. Reilly's a strong offensive defenseman who I have slipping due to injury concerns. Before his injury he was arguably right on par with Murray as a dman, so the Bolts are getting what's arguably a top 5 pick here if he does recover fully. I'd compare him to Dmitri Kulikov.
Alternative Picks: LW Teuvo Teravainen
11: Washington Capitals - C Brendan Guance, Belleville (OHL)
Needs: Center
Reason: Guance fits what's possibly BPA here (while not being a gamble) and fits organizational need. Offensively he's not going to be a real gamebreaker, but he has enough there that they can plug him into that #2 spot nicely eventually. But his real asset is his defensive game, he's a bit like a Brandon Sutter in that his upside is a bit limited, but he should be able to be a reliable #2/3 guy and be quite effective on the defensive front. In a bit of irony I have the brother of one of the Avs prospects going to another team here via the pick that originally belonged to the Avs.
Alternative Picks: LW Teuvo Teravainen, D Olli Maatta, D Derrick Pouliot, D Cody Ceci, C Colten Sissons
12: Buffalo Sabres - LW Teuvo Teravainen, Jokerit (SM Liiga)
Needs: BPA
Reasons: The upside with Teravainen is certainly there to the point where I'm fairly sure he'll go earlier then this. But in looking at what everyone around this spot likely needs organizationally and with how wide open things are from 2-10 this year, Teravainen somehow finding his way out of the top 10 and to Buffalo makes entirely too much sense. Very slick player, and possibly one of the most NHL-ready prospects in the draft. Buffalo wins big time if they get him.
Alternative Picks: RW Tom Wilson, RW Sebastien Collberg
13: Dallas Stars - RW Sebastien Collberg, Frolunda (SEL)
Needs: BPA
Reasons: Collberg fits nicely into this next tier of players and fits nicely into what Dallas needs as well. He (along with Benn) could easily be the skilled star players that the Stars need to get back on track here in the next few years. There are even some that prefer Collberg over Forsberg in terms of the Swedish prospects from this season.
Alternative Picks: D Derrick Pouliot, D Olli Maatta, D Cody Ceci
14: Calgary Flames - D Cody Ceci, Ottawa (OHL)
Needs: Center, Defenseman
Reasons: Just go BPA here. The Flames organization has become what the pre-lockout Canes were in terms of drafting and player development. Ceci is a pretty sure bet to make some kind of impact at the NHL level and has a good bit of offensive upside to his game. Defensively he's fairly reliable, and offensively he has a good bit of upside to his game. Given everything Calgary needs (which is prettymuch everything) to pass on what's likely the surest prospect in the draft at this point makes zero sense.
Alternative Picks: D Derrick Pouliot, D Olli Maatta
