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POLL: Who got the better of the Turris trade?

View Poll Results: Who won the Turris trade?
Senators 32 11.47%
Coyotes 128 45.88%
Even Trade 34 12.19%
Not sure 85 30.47%
Voters: 279. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
12-23-2011, 04:45 PM
  #301
H2O
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Quote:
Originally Posted by trentmccleary View Post
Is anybody planning on finding even 1 trade where a player has done this little this far into his career for this much value? ... Something, anything that looks remotely like this deal.
Erik Johnson?

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Old
12-23-2011, 04:49 PM
  #302
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Come back with this question in 3-4 years when someone can actually answer it. By then we can atleast see what Turris, Runblad and that 2nd round pick become/are becoming

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12-23-2011, 04:56 PM
  #303
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Originally Posted by trentmccleary View Post
For this deal to make any sense and be justified in the end, to me that basically means that we need Turris to develop along the same lines as Sharp with Chicago.
I think you may get what Sharp has been for the most part in Chicago.

Whether he reaches a PPG at age 30....not sure.

Does your assessment change if David Rundblad doesn't live up to the hype? Or does perceived value trump the value his own teams gives him?

I think he could be a 40 point player in Ottawa right now, and at 22 with a fresh start there is upside beyond that, especially if he gets on the #1 unit.

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12-23-2011, 04:57 PM
  #304
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Quote:
Originally Posted by H2O View Post
Erik Johnson?
This is a surprisingly good example actually

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12-23-2011, 05:04 PM
  #305
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Originally Posted by Philadelphia Collins View Post
This is a surprisingly good example actually
It just highlights how much value top end potential is worth regardless of how they've performed in their first few years.

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Old
12-23-2011, 10:50 PM
  #306
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....


Last edited by True Story: 05-04-2012 at 02:13 PM.
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Old
12-24-2011, 01:28 AM
  #307
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Quote:
Originally Posted by trentmccleary View Post
No, popular homerism is carrying the day... as it tends to immediately after we make a trade. The dust will settle eventually and we can all assess this deal on it's merits.

Interesting take, it certainly doesn't sound like you're sitting back and judging assets by their merits. It looks like you've decided Turris' value and Rundblad's all on your own, based on... Something you think. I'm trying to show you that for some reason your take on it isn't reflected in the real world.

I'm one of the few people here attempting to substantiate my opinion. The only logic you've brought is circular logic, without any supporting evidence.

The problem is you can't substantiate your opinion, it will never be more than just your opinion. You can cherry pick and hammer out your interpretations over an over again, but it will never become more factual. Again, I'm just pointing out that you hold so strongly to an opinion that has very little basis in relation to what actually happened.


"We made a good trade because Murray makes good trades. Turris will be good because Murray et all thought Rundblad would be good, so Turris must be better. Turris must be worth what we paid because we paid what we paid. If he wasn't worth what we paid, we never would have paid what we paid."



A tad simplistic, and clearly for effect. I guess my point in a nutshell is that your assessment of value means squat next to the accumulated experiences of our team scouts and management, along with those of the other two teams we were competing with (unless of course this was all a big ruse). This of course does not include the analysts and such who feel it was a good move. You appear to think quite highly of your opinions.


I haven't predicted anything about Rundblad in this thread. You have tried to shove words down my mouth to create a strawman to attack... likely more of your logic coming through. I have only argued that Rundblad's successful 2 years after being a 1st rounder mean that he has at the very least maintained that value. Whereas, Turris failures over the past 4 years should have substantially dropped his value as a 3rd overall pick --> just as it has for every other disappointing 1st rounder since the dawn of time.

Strawman this strawman that, give me a break Trent just because you don't say something right out doesn't mean I can't deal with things you imply. Not sure how you can make bold statements concerning the huge difference in the value of the trade without making assumptions about Rundblad. I mean you wouldn't be arguing this staunchly if you didn't think he would be better because, well if you didn't think that then where exactly is all of this value you speak of? Surely not sitting on the ledgers in the SEL, and resting on a 30% chance of playing in the NHL.

I know that. The market usually says that a cheeseburger is $2 and we paid $20. I want to know why.

NyQuil answered this, but I guess I'll add that again, the idea that we paid 1000% more is just an opinion, your opinion, and not an opinion that is held by many who actually work in the NHL, or around here it would seem as well. It's like the guy who gets dumped all the time who tries to find the flaws in all of his ex's; rather than many flawed people, perhaps there is only one, you.

Yes, Maloney said that there was a tonne of interest and that the offers were getting high. That could be exactly what he was telling Murray as Murray was bidding against himself not realizing that he was being bluffed the whole time.

Very true, and you know what else? Rundblad could actually turn out to be a girl, and when the league finds out he won't be able to play anymore and we win! See how I did that? You seem like a level headed poster so I can only surmise that you believe this solely because it supports your position despite several reports to the contrary. Conspiracy theories are great and all Trent but Occam's Razor carries the day, all day, every day.

We have no idea what happened in a secret bidding war and a secret bidding war doesn't exactly determine fair market value.

Secret? Do you have some 'in' with NHL GM's that would normally include you in league-wide trade talks? It wasn't a secret man, you just aren't in the loop (why in the world would you be?). We've known for months that Phoenix was likely to trade Turris, I'm pretty sure GM's were bargaining back and forth, but hey maybe I'm wrong, maybe this was all a made-up story to fool Murray. It's a shame you couldn't have brought this conspiracy to the public eye before it all went down. So in the end this is all your fault?

Very little of what you've written in this thread constitutes a well reasoned and logical argument.

Here is a list of logical fallacies that you might want to read over:

http://www.csun.edu/~dgw61315/fallacies.html

Weak, try again. This smacks of a last ditch attempt. Your argument is shiny but carries little substance.

Ottawa's rebuilding, we shouldn't be thinking short term as this post suggests, because it will hurt our ability to contend in subsequent seasons.

No Trent, that retort only works here if you take my statement out of the context in which it was made, again, weak. We've actually moved the rebuild forward here in the direction it needs to go for us to contend. See, we dealt a prospect from a position of strength, and a 2nd, for a young NHL player who fits an exact need for our team who has just as much upside as the player we dealt, except he is already an NHL calibre player and is just a year older. Surely you aren't trying to imply that picking up Turris has set our rebuild back?

Turris has never been as good as Spezza at any level of hockey.

Hmmm... Never said anything like that, but I see you interpreted me saying "right now" to mean that he once was, and you would be wrong. For that at least your stats would back it up.


No, we saw 1 GM make that trade-off; Murray.
Lowest common denominator post. You say this like you're making some form of trump post, when in reality this is just the obvious truth. The team that makes the trade is the team that offers the most, and of course since a player can't be traded to more than one team at a time, only one GM can make the trade off. Of course you have ignored the reports of other close offers, including one that may have been perceived by some as better. But that never actually happened right because it doesn't fit with your opinion...

You like Rundblad and thought he was going to be awesome, I get it, but he's gone now. The fact that pros in the league didn't see the values the same as you should, again, give you some pause. Take a moment and look at yourself and your analysis here, otherwise you're just going to end up with another string of flawed ex's.


Last edited by Ice-Tray: 12-24-2011 at 01:29 AM. Reason: bolding
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Old
12-24-2011, 08:16 AM
  #308
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I said it before and I'll say it again, they sold Rundblad at his highest (or near it) value. He's going to be a healthy scratch for much of his next few years or be down in the AHL. The guy isn't made for NA hockey and it's becoming very clear.

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12-24-2011, 01:59 PM
  #309
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Quote:
Originally Posted by trentmccleary View Post
Is anybody planning on finding even 1 trade where a player has done this little this far into his career for this much value? ... Something, anything that looks remotely like this deal.
Rundblad + a 2nd ???

/Thread
/Trent's argumentation


PS : Young players with high end potential like Turris aren't available usually, hence why it is hard to find many examples. That being said, if I had more time, I'd be able to find some good examples. I would also be able to answer to your previous quotes. Maybe monday as I'm off next week

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Old
12-24-2011, 02:07 PM
  #310
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Xspyrit View Post
Rundblad + a 2nd ???

/Thread
/Trent's argumentation


PS : Young players with high end potential like Turris aren't available usually, hence why it is hard to find many examples. That being said, if I had more time, I'd be able to find some good examples. I would also be able to answer to your previous quotes. Maybe monday as I'm off next week
The Erik Johnson example is a pretty good one.

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12-24-2011, 02:21 PM
  #311
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Minister of Offence View Post
The Erik Johnson example is a pretty good one.
I agree but I think Rundblad (+ a 2nd) is an even better example


Check the question again :

"...where a player has done this little this far into his career for this much value?"

Rundblad has done so little in his NA career so far, that I'm wondering how the Sens were able to acquire Kyle Turris for him. It's evident the Coyotes got fleeced in that deal

Flawless logic I tell you



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12-24-2011, 02:36 PM
  #312
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Xspyrit View Post
I agree but I think Rundblad (+ a 2nd) is an even better example


Check the question again :

"...where a player has done this little this far into his career for this much value?"

Rundblad has done so little in his NA career so far, that I'm wondering how the Sens were able to acquire Kyle Turris for him. It's evident the Coyotes got fleeced in that deal

Flawless logic I tell you


it's "this little" "this far" into his career. you're forgetting the second part.

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Old
12-24-2011, 04:11 PM
  #313
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Minister of Offence View Post
Just because there is no precedent doesn't mean you can crap on the deal. I watched him play, I'd have laughed at Phoenix if they got what many wanted to get him for.

But that's what you get for using problem child assumption = no value type of logic.

I really doubt this guy will be a problem again in his career....he seems like a good kid I'm sure he knows his rep can't handle it.
I'm not even arguing about his holdout. I'm mostly arguing that 4 years into his career, a 3rd overall pick hasn't dominated any lower league or produced in the NHL. Thus, it's been well over 4 years that Turris has given anybody any reason to think that he could be an elite offensive player. When that has happened throughout the history of the league, the stock of that player has taken a huge hit.

Quote:
Originally Posted by H2O View Post
Erik Johnson?
Scored at half a point a game in the NHL as a D-man for 2 years and missed an entire season due to injury. Turris hasn't produced any where near that level as a forward, which is even less impressive and remained perfectly healthy (ie: there's less reason to project better with Turris than Johnson).

Quote:
Originally Posted by Minister of Offence View Post
I think you may get what Sharp has been for the most part in Chicago.

Whether he reaches a PPG at age 30....not sure.

Does your assessment change if David Rundblad doesn't live up to the hype? Or does perceived value trump the value his own teams gives him?

I think he could be a 40 point player in Ottawa right now, and at 22 with a fresh start there is upside beyond that, especially if he gets on the #1 unit.
Again, I'm really just trying to guage Turris' value by liquidating Rundblad into his pick value.
Rundblad was a recent mid-1st who has succeeded in the 2 years since he was drafted, so he should have maintained his value at least.

We have gave up a mid-1st and what looks like a mid-2nd for Turris. I don't see how he could have been worth that after disappointing for the past 4 years and IMO, this deal compares to disastrous deals like Kessel to Toronto or Penner to Edmonton.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nail2012 View Post
Rundblad may never get the NA game; Turris already does.
Turris has been in the system for 3 years, Rundblad has been in the system for 3 months. Big difference there.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ice-Tray View Post
Lowest common denominator post. You say this like you're making some form of trump post, when in reality this is just the obvious truth. The team that makes the trade is the team that offers the most, and of course since a player can't be traded to more than one team at a time, only one GM can make the trade off. Of course you have ignored the reports of other close offers, including one that may have been perceived by some as better. But that never actually happened right because it doesn't fit with your opinion...

You like Rundblad and thought he was going to be awesome, I get it, but he's gone now. The fact that pros in the league didn't see the values the same as you should, again, give you some pause. Take a moment and look at yourself and your analysis here, otherwise you're just going to end up with another string of flawed ex's.
Another post where all you done is take shots at, put words in my mouth and state that I'm wrong with no rationale or support.

How about you answer some substantive questions for once?
- When has a team given up this much for a kid who has done this little through the first 4 years of his career?
- What has Turris done in 4 years to keep people believing that he could be an elite offensive player?
- If a player doesn't do the thing they were drafted to do for 4 years, why wouldn't their value drop substantially?
- Why would Turris still be worth a mid-1st & mid-2nd from much better drafts than the 2007 drafts? That's still peak value for Turris? What's he done to maintain his value through those 4 years?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Billy Madison View Post
I said it before and I'll say it again, they sold Rundblad at his highest (or near it) value. He's going to be a healthy scratch for much of his next few years or be down in the AHL. The guy isn't made for NA hockey and it's becoming very clear.
Come on... you've determined that he's going to be a healthy scratch for the 'next few years' based on 25 games?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Xspyrit View Post
Rundblad has done so little in his NA career so far, that I'm wondering how the Sens were able to acquire Kyle Turris for him. It's evident the Coyotes got fleeced in that deal
It's normal for 1st round picks not to have made the NHL the first 2 years after they were drafted, particularly defensemen.
It's not normal for forwards who were picked high in the first round not to have produced anything in the NHL 4 years after they were drafted.

For example, at this point in his career; Marian Hossa had scored 90 goals for us. Turris has 19... that's not "just a little off the mark".

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Old
12-24-2011, 04:31 PM
  #314
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But I`m starting to think Melnyk may have something to do with this trade; not by picking Turris himself but by forcing Murray to make the playoffs, just like by giving Kovalev 5M for 2 years or picking up Sutton and Cullen for 2 rounders.

We really don`t know how much influence Melnyk uses on Murray.
Excellent point.

We all remember how infatuated Mr. Melnyk got with Pat Quinn and everyone Team Canada related when they were held here. It's possible that Murray remembers Turris from his Juniors experience and sees the Senators "close" to a playoff spot (the team DOES look good and cohesive, but could well be fighting 5-6 other teams for that 8th spot) and this could lead to impulse moves on the part of Murray. Anyone else get a chill when Murray said he might make a trade to get us deeper into the playoff picture?

As for the trade, Turris is playing well for us at the moment but we need to see how Rundblad plays a little older, given the pace of development for young defensemen. Would still have preferred the 2nd only but spilt milk and all that, and turkey is ready!

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12-24-2011, 04:34 PM
  #315
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Originally Posted by trentmccleary View Post
I'm not even arguing about his holdout. I'm mostly arguing that 4 years into his career, a 3rd overall pick hasn't dominated any lower league or produced in the NHL. Thus, it's been well over 4 years that Turris has given anybody any reason to think that he could be an elite offensive player. When that has happened throughout the history of the league, the stock of that player has taken a huge hit.

Scored at half a point a game in the NHL as a D-man for 2 years and missed an entire season due to injury. Turris hasn't produced any where near that level as a forward, which is even less impressive and remained perfectly healthy (ie: there's less reason to project better with Turris than Johnson).

Again, I'm really just trying to guage Turris' value by liquidating Rundblad into his pick value.
Rundblad was a recent mid-1st who has succeeded in the 2 years since he was drafted, so he should have maintained his value at least.

We have gave up a mid-1st and what looks like a mid-2nd for Turris. I don't see how he could have been worth that after disappointing for the past 4 years and IMO, this deal compares to disastrous deals like Kessel to Toronto or Penner to Edmonton.
1. I think in this case you really do have to concede that many teams believe there was something going on in Phoenix and he really did need to get out. We aren't inside, but that is certainly what it seems like. You don't HAVE to dominate any league, especially if you're outlook in the NHL has regressed from #1 center to #2 center....for a future #2 center that season he had in the AHL at 19-20 was very good.

You said he was weak defensively in Phoenix? In the recent games I watched, I saw a good defensive player...and so far people see a diligent defensive player. So is it that hard to fathom he exceeds your expectations in other areas?

2. Erik Johnson had proven more, but he also returned a young 30 goal scorer if you agree the 11th overall and Kevin Shattenkirk cancel each other out. Turris isn't Erik Johnson....but David Rundblad isn't Chris Stewart either.

The comparison isn't perfect, but Johnson hasn't lived up to the hype. Either way I don't see what merit a precedent has if "there's a first for everything".

3. Players values are best evaluated based on viewing, not based on what they've proven in numbers in lesser leagues. I have always been critical about Rundblad ever living up to his 20 year old season in the SEL, in the future in the NHL...I don't think he has the quickness to do it in a more congested ice surface.

Good player? Most likely. But he was practically Bobby Orr in the SEL last year....and he built up hype doing things he won't do in the NHL. Will he to some degree? Sure. He's shown the ability to beat guys on one one and stuff. But he's also shown so far that the longer he holds on to the puck, the more likely he gets caught by someone quicker. In the SEL he was able to run around mostly at full speed, in the NHL you run to the boards and people and need to evade them with quickness.

I think the defensive depth of this year's draft had a lot to do with this. If we finish too well to get one of them, that probably means Turris is exceeding your expectations...if he isn't, we'll get a two-way Dman at 10-14 in the draft and not much changes.



At the end of the day, it looks more like we traded a 8th-10th overall for an 8th-10th overall. The 2nd round pick makes a difference here and it's a point of contention for a lot of people, we'll need time to see if our management wanting this player so badly was worth the extra. If we get the Turris that showed up last year for Phoenix....it was worth it.


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